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#1461762 - 14/04/2018 16:54 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Rainbow Spirit Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 10/11/2010
Posts: 554
Loc: Green Valley, just west of Liv...
That fire could impact areas around Menai, Barden Ridge and Lucas Heights in a few hours if the fire front keeps heading SE.

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#1461763 - 14/04/2018 17:12 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Thankfully the fire passed South of me, but my prayers go out for the people that may be affected by the fire front, unless there is a huge wind change they are in real danger.

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#1461774 - 14/04/2018 21:14 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 391
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Looks like it went through heathcote road now unfortunately. Really hope no lives or homes are lost.

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#1461779 - 14/04/2018 22:07 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
What a @hit of a day. Dry hot nor wester. A stormy sky late arvo that delivered nothing.
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#1461782 - 14/04/2018 22:40 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
mkeene(pingtang) Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/09/2011
Posts: 530
Loc: Nowra,NSW
Temperatures "only" reached 28c here today. A temperature that would be very warm in any other April but not this one. We had a run of 3 days above 30c, nothing to write home about compared to other areas in the state, but still very significant. Average max is running at 28.5c as we near the second half of the month.

It's been a non eventful day thankfully. Clear skies all day, and quite windy at times, difficult weather for fires. Last night saw quite a few dry lightning strikes, so its good to see not too many problems in this neck of the woods. At the moment wind gusts are pushing gale force, getting to 83km/h.

Speaking of lightning, there was plenty last night. Storms were weak and high based, only dropping marginal amounts of rain for most areas, however Moss Vale copped 17mms. I captured some nice photos and videos. The video below is 40 seconds long and documents this quite well. Feel free to watch and enjoy.


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#1461783 - 14/04/2018 23:13 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4040
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Great video McKeene, thanks for posting.

-------

It's getting quite windy here and I think it's cooled slightly. It was hot, sunny and windy in Sydney today after early cloud cleared. It 'only' made about 31 in a slightly cooler air mass. No showers or lightning, It hasn't rained here in 18 days.

There have been some big gusts around Sydney, into the 60s and 70s km/h, including a 65 at Holsworthy. The highest seems to be 89 at Mt Boyce, 82 at Kurnell and 78 at the Airport. The can't be good with the fires. Today, there's no Southerly moving up the coast, no showers, just more Westerlies, slightly cooler.

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#1461787 - 15/04/2018 03:24 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 24
Loc: Monaro, NSW; 778-1,349 m AMSL....
...


Edited by Seabreeze (15/04/2018 06:13)
Edit Reason: vulgar language
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#1461789 - 15/04/2018 06:03 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Great capture Pingtang. But you got it dated wrong.

Humpfffff. Some cooler air made the night a little more pleasant but only just at around 20. Still nor wester. Hasn't been one average day or night temp so far this crazy April. And the forecast for next 7 days the same. Real warm again to morrow. Pilbara on mid April heat steroids with an unseemly trough directing interior heat. And lingering low stuff in Coral sea is mucking up contraction of STR. So there is no end in sight to this way above thing. In just over a week and into Anzac day, marchers will possibly be marching in 30 degree temps in Sydney and here. And that would be out there.


Edited by Knot (15/04/2018 06:11)

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#1461791 - 15/04/2018 06:18 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Pingtang. Vid footage has Friday 13th date but subject tag line has 18th. No big deal.


Fess up Snowman. Yes you.


Edited by Knot (15/04/2018 06:23)
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#1461799 - 15/04/2018 08:52 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 24
Loc: Monaro, NSW; 778-1,349 m AMSL....
5.7° C and squally; feels like –2.3° C. Relative humidity 71%, dew point 0.9° C. Wind chiefly WSW, squalls gusting 52.3 knots (26.9 m/s; 96.9 km/h); violent storm. Sheep Graziers weather warning.

Norway, Black Springs, NSW; 1,208 m AMSL; 33° 51' 36.72" S.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1461801 - 15/04/2018 09:25 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: Antarctic Whaler]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1057
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Antarctic Whaler
5.7° C and squally; feels like –2.3° C. Relative humidity 71%, dew point 0.9° C. Wind chiefly WSW, squalls gusting 52.3 knots (26.9 m/s; 96.9 km/h); violent storm. Sheep Graziers weather warning.

Norway, Black Springs, NSW; 1,208 m AMSL; 33° 51' 36.72" S.


Sheep Graziers warnings would hardly be unusual at that elevation, if the wind is strong enough.
Fairly strong westerlies now, almost hayfever weather of spring.
Heatwave is effectively over, but still above average.

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#1461802 - 15/04/2018 09:31 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 391
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Looks like yesterday was likely to be the last 30c day for the season.

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#1461803 - 15/04/2018 09:38 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1661
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
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#1461807 - 15/04/2018 10:12 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: Sidney]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Looks like yesterday was likely to be the last 30c day for the season.


Wanna bet. Bom shooting for 28 for Syd metro morrow. A little nudge and hey presto.
And thats just tomorrow.

The week after next I think will see another burst of heat courtesy of our WA heat engine still revving like crazy.

Saw that mammatus yesterday Stormy, as the storm came over Sugarloaf, and collapsed with mamm forming and the sun bursting out. A few drops fell on me at Glendale. Was a shame no rain from it.
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If you can't change something, there is only one option. Adapt!

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#1461808 - 15/04/2018 10:27 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 260
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Just an update on the fires from yesterday, a drop in the winds from 2:30-7:30 below 15km/h allowed for the firies to get the upper-hand. Amazing effort from them they effectively ensured no homes were lost in such horrible conditions. Although the fire is still a watch and act the fire still burns in tough terrain combined with strengthening Westerlies. Amazing that last week it was expected to rain yesterday but how the weather changes.


Edited by ashestoashes (15/04/2018 10:29)

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#1461810 - 15/04/2018 10:49 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 24
Loc: Monaro, NSW; 778-1,349 m AMSL....
Originally Posted By: DerekHV
Originally Posted By: Antarctic Whaler
5.7° C and squally; feels like –2.3° C. Relative humidity 71%, dew point 0.9° C. Wind chiefly WSW, squalls gusting 52.3 knots (26.9 m/s; 96.9 km/h); violent storm. Sheep Graziers weather warning.

Norway, Black Springs, NSW; 1,208 m AMSL; 33° 51' 36.72" S.


Sheep Graziers warnings would hardly be unusual at that elevation, if the wind is strong enough.
Fairly strong westerlies now, almost hayfever weather of spring.
Heatwave is effectively over, but still above average.

Found two of me sheep ill at the old poplar near the back of the paddock—two lovely ewes frown Sheep Graziers weather warnings certainly don't lie!

Bloody southwesterlies, the bastards mad
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1461838 - 15/04/2018 19:37 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 1935
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Don't mind the sou'westers. Back in the day when I went skiing it meant sunny days in Sydney (good) and cold snow conditions in the resorts (double plus good).

Everything covered in a fine layer of red dust today. Did the usual dusting and vacuuming and noticed it was particularly gritty and red. Some decent topsoil for the Tasman Sea winter crops.

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#1462037 - 18/04/2018 14:10 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2094
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
I posted this in the forum thread "General Weather/Records Tumbling".
As those reading "Weather Events" never read "General Weather" (vice versa in my case), I'm posting it here as well.

At Manilla, NSW, this April's mean temperatures 1st to 17th are Max 31, Mean 23, Min 14.
At the usual rate of Autumn cooling, I expect the final April means to be 1 degree lower, that is: Max 30, Mean 22, Min 13.
I set up my April normals using the decade April 1999 to March 2008 as: Max 26, Mean 18, Min 11.
The April anomaly values that I expect for this April are:
Max +4, Mean +4, Min +2.
That will make it about one degree warmer than my previous warmest April: 2005.
Last April (2017) was my fourth coolest: more than one degree below normal.

In 20 years, the rise in the April linear trend is trivial.
A fitted quartic trend line is low in 1999 and 2011, and high in 2003 and 2018. The quartic trend line for Max is a couple of years in advance of the quartic trend line for Min.

Weatherzone has a news item, sourced to "ABC", about this April warmth. It includes statements by Blair Trewin.
I expect it will just get lost, like all old news.
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#1462043 - 18/04/2018 15:56 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1912
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Well if EC & GFS come off, those warm anomalies will be wiped out quickly and rainfall records smashed.

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#1462050 - 18/04/2018 18:20 Re: NSW April 7-15 2018, sustained April Heatwave leading to a possibly record month [Re: DerekHV]
Surly Bond Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/08/2003
Posts: 2094
Loc: Manilla, near Tamworth NSW
As April goes on, the temperature usually decreases. In inland NSW, it decreases by about five degrees from the first day to the thirtieth day.
So far as I know, each of the "normal" temperatures for April (e.g. the normal daily maximum) has just one value: the average for the month. As a result, record high values are likely at the beginning of the month and unlikely at the end of it (explaining the fading interest in this thread)
Discussion of extraordinarily high temperatures during April according to their Celsius value is a crude reflection of climate.
A record forty-degree day on the first of the month is no more remarkable than a (non-record) thirty-five degree day at the end of the month.
To have a forty-degree day on the fifteenth of the month would be much more remarkable than to have it on the first.

With data handling now so easy, I am surprised that climate normals are not published for each day of the year, rather than for each month.
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