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#1460958 - 04/04/2018 21:09 2018 Australian Snow Season
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4035
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's early April but temperatures are still tracking close to high Summer averages in NSW, to the dismay of some, especially when coupled with a lack of rain in many places. But turn the season will, it always does.

I don't know whether it's too soon to make predictions. We have some experts here who may care to hazard an opinion (or guess). The BOM's outlook for April to June indicates cooler and wetter for SE NSW but the record of these predictions has been mixed. I have a theory (without proof) that warmth in one season tends to be balanced by 'coolth' in another. Hot Summers are followed by cold Winters. This happened in 1896 and 1991. On the other hand the hot 2016/17 Summer was followed by a mild Winter, but a bumper snow season as there was heavy precipitation in Alpine areas. On the other hand, cool, cloudy Summers in the mid 90s were balanced by warm Winters.

ENSO seems to be neutral, so no indication there. The Annualar mode is negative, which means stronger Westerlies, good for snow. Warm seas in the Tasman are good for East Coast Lows. Combined with cold fronts, snow can result, but also warm, wet conditions.

Here's another one: in Sydney, the hottest average April maximum on record was 25.6 in 1922, reaching 31.6 on April 24. May and the following Winter were average, cold by today's standards. The average maxima in Sydney for May, June and July were 19.5 (an amazing drop of 6 degrees from the previous month), then 17.7 and 16.6. The flip happened around May 7.

So I have no idea what the coming snow season will be like except that there will be one. As always, we shall see.

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#1461186 - 08/04/2018 09:45 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Kangaroo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/02/2007
Posts: 119
Loc: Berowra, Sydney
I always look forward to snow and cold weather-related discussions at this time of year. Takes my attention off this awful (for me) warm weather.

Hoping for some more low level snow this year and a decent June in the Alps.

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#1462131 - 19/04/2018 17:36 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Pemmy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/11/2015
Posts: 1
Has anybody looked at Weatherzone`s predicted so called record maximum temperature for Thredbo Village for April 2018....even though 6 days do not have a maximum temperature recorded. Very unscientific.
Funnily enough this coincides with a 6 day cold spell.
If you cross reference those 6 empty temperatures with the Cabramurra temperatures for those days (similar long term climate), you get vastly different numbers.... and a record high is unlikely.

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#1462154 - 19/04/2018 20:42 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Pemmy]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 1906
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Pemmy
Has anybody looked at Weatherzone`s predicted so called record maximum temperature for Thredbo Village for April 2018....even though 6 days do not have a maximum temperature recorded. Very unscientific.
Funnily enough this coincides with a 6 day cold spell.
If you cross reference those 6 empty temperatures with the Cabramurra temperatures for those days (similar long term climate), you get vastly different numbers.... and a record high is unlikely.


Another “Goulburn”?

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#1462327 - 21/04/2018 16:32 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Pemmy]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4035
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There are gaps in readings all over the place, I think more so than in the past. For example, half of the hot month of January 2018 seems to be missing for Bellambi. Even capital cities have the odd missing readings.

This is indeed unfortunate, but I don't see any sinister purpose at work, other than cuts by an unsympathetic Government. I surmise it's most likely about budgets and money. Like just about everywhere else, staffing at the Bureau of Meteorology has probably been cut back to the bone, as has likely been the budget for checking and maintaining equipment.

Maybe someone who has specific knowledge would care to comment. It does mean that any monthly records or total rainfall for April 2018 in Thredbo, or for January 2018 in Bellambi, don't have much meaning, but those daily temperature recordings that are available can and should contribute to averges.

April temperature records will be smashed all over much of Australia, even if the rest of the month is average, so the loss of Thredbo records won't make much difference to the bigger picture.

Anyway, looking forward to some snow. There was a bit of settled snow in the Alpine areas early this week but warmer weather would have quickly melted it. There doesn't look to be any more snow in the offing, but it will eventually arrive.


Edited by Steve777 (21/04/2018 16:33)

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#1462420 - 23/04/2018 09:43 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3770
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
The Thredbo Village issue was a broken maximum thermometer which took a few days to be replaced (it's a manual site).


Edited by Blair Trewin (23/04/2018 09:43)

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#1462450 - 23/04/2018 20:47 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Blair Trewin]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4035
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thank you Blair.

------

GFS is showing a cold outbreak around May 7, towards the end of its run, with negative 850 temps over the Snowys and the blue line just South of Sydney. Early days yet, however.

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#1462452 - 23/04/2018 21:23 Re: 2018 Australian Snow Season [Re: Steve777]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 151
Two perhaps related processes that may generally auger well for snowfall here in w.a(and perhaps other areas as well) -

(if) an el nino modoki develops later this year - I think because of an association with wave guide patterns in the troposphere which tend to direct planetary wave activity polewards.
(though the more significant influence from memory is thought to be in the following winter)

The phase of the qbo - especially in spring - now close to easterly phase at all levels of the tropical stratosphere - associated with weakening of the polar stratospheric vortex.


Edited by snowbooby (23/04/2018 21:28)

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