Page 1 of 2 1 2 >
Topic Options
#1461332 - 09/04/2018 22:41 VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
G'day everyone! Bula vinaka. smile

As much as I've been enjoying the sunshine, I'm sick and tired of the serious lack of useful rainfall and storm activity. At long last it seems that the wet, stormy transition into Winter 2018 is finally, finally, FINALLY getting ready to swing into action!! =D

On satellite we have a frontal system over the Bight, which will drag a trough and very hot air from the north into Southern Australia. The front may set of a few patchy showers and storms across Victoria tomorrow, but not holding out much hope for rainfall; in fact I'm still very nervous about bushfires. frown

Forecast tops of 29C and 38C for Melbourne and Mildura respectively tomorrow.

The front should clear east on Wednesday, while the trough lingers in its wake, with a low pressure system developing over Southeastern Australia on Thursday/Friday, which may bring humid, thundery conditions. But I'm not confident in that event either at this stage. And that event's got a thread of its own.

It's this weekend and beyond that I'm placing my bets, all the more as I'm desperate to see an end to this useless dry spell that's been near-constant since the end of January...

The models all seem keen on locking-in the first potentially major winter storm event for the year in weeks! Read on... smile

A enormous, vigorous, unstable Antarctic cold pool is currently on the move in the Southern Ocean, riding the Roaring Forties. By the latter part of this week, the polar air mass will suddenly swing north en route to Southern Australia, coiling around a deepening low pressure system, with a ferocious cold front entering the Bight by Friday.

The preceding low and trough over the Southeast corner of the nation will quickly get eroded and/or shoved up the East Coast and out into the Tasman Sea/South Pacific Ocean; any residue warmth and humidity will be sucked into a rapidly strengthening northerly airflow across Victoria as the developing storm approaches.

The storm and associated front will burst across Victoria on Saturday, hopefully bringing a chance for some much heavier shower and thunderstorm activity, especially to Melbourne! High pressure to the west should maintain a gusty, showery westerly airstream in its wake. A second powerful winter storm will follow close behind next Monday, reinforcing the autumnal/wintry weather pattern well into next week.

Still awaiting to hear the next alpine snowfall reports, and also for the bay-effect to be put to use in my corner of Melbourne. I hope this event brings us some nice hail-producing coldies as the cold air moves in, preferably if winds blow from the southwest! wink

Aussiestormfreak

Top
#1461552 - 12/04/2018 13:16 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
tony m Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2003
Posts: 326
Loc: Menai (Sydney) Lat.-34.S; Long...
Hi aussiestormfreak.

I know what you mean. Sydney itself has not really changed from the Summer mode even though close to mid Autumn. [months]. I myself have moved address a few times (in last 30 odd years) to experience different weather climates and patterns.

ie The "dry tropics" inland
The "wet and dry monsoonal tropics" coastal
And The equatorial tropics" Singapore & Malaysia.

Each had their own particular way in different times of the year.

But saying that. Some days of in the wet and dry tropical regions go on forever; warm to hot sunny days and clear nights. With little or no change from May till mid to late October or November. There is no end in sight for weeks and even months on end. In the end it does get boring.

In Singapore & Malaysia. It does vary from day to day and with the monsoonal trough certain times of the year. But when the sun is out. IT is HOT! (hot and ultra humid). And then hoping for the afternoon cloud thunderstorms or big storms cells. Some pass with in 1 hour to leave a big steamy sunshine afternoon or at dusk. Other times of the year (monsoons) just constant cloud cover with rain/storms or just more rain. And then hoping just to see the sun again, to de-humidify the mould and mildew. (and our minds).

But best experience (which was not planned) was living in Townsville in the Summer of 1989-90 and being there when a T.C. was offshore further up but did reach the land. (tail end of a cyclone). I have never (ever) see it rain (like cats and dogs) constantly heavy unrelenting rain for 3 days & nights. Walk outside for 5 seconds and get drenched. (Some thunderstorms included.) But at least a "different change" of endless days of sunshine. !!

Top
#1461681 - 13/04/2018 18:48 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7378
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Mild 26.5c here today, mostly calm. Baro has presently fallen to 999 hPa - the lowest value for 3 months.

Looks good for decent rain up on the Strezleckiis tomoz (circa an inch). Our way looking to be cold windy with only teasing showers?

Top
#1461682 - 13/04/2018 18:52 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2614
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Hope some good showers, as had no rain since March 26th very brown dry grass in Northern Country... So we have good switch warm to cold

Top
#1461697 - 13/04/2018 21:31 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
IDV21037
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DESTRUCTIVE WINDS

For people in Central, East Gippsland, Mallee, South West, Northern Country, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Wimmera Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:33 pm Friday, 13 April 2018.
A series of active cold fronts will affect Victoria over the next few days. The first cold front will reach the southwest this evening before moving through the remainder of the State overnight and early Saturday. A second and stronger cold front will reach the southwest during the late morning on Saturday before affecting remaining parts of Victoria during the afternoon.

DAMAGING winds of 50 to 70 km/h with gusts to around 90 km/h are forecast for the South West, North Central, Central, North East and West and South Gippsland during tonight and early Saturday, mainly over elevated areas.

DAMAGING winds of 60 to 80 km/h are expected over all Victorian districts during Saturday, mainly during the afternoon. Across the northern plains, wind gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are possible while over southern and mountain areas wind gusts are expected to be between 100 and 110 km/h, reaching 110 to 120 km/h near the coast and over elevated areas.

DESTRUCTIVE winds of 70 to 90 km/h with peak gusts of around 130 km/h are possible about the Alpine peaks (above 1200 metres) during Saturday afternoon and early evening.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible during tonight and Saturday and wind gusts above 90 km/h are possible.
The wind is expected to ease in most areas during Saturday evening although strong to gale force winds may remain near the coast and over the Alpine area.

Locations which may be affected include Mildura, Horsham, Warrnambool, Bendigo, Shepparton, Seymour, Maryborough, Ballarat, Geelong, Melbourne, Wodonga, Wangaratta, Traralgon and Bairnsdale.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Move vehicles under cover or away from trees;
* Secure or put away loose items around your house, yard and balcony;
* Keep clear of fallen power lines;

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Friday.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217.

The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Source: Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Top
#1461701 - 13/04/2018 22:48 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Yeah g'day Tony M.

You've certainly been all over the place eh mate? Haha (I've been everywhere man...) wink

Yeah virtually all of Victoria's been locked in a very bizarre weather pattern since the end of January. We've had a couple of cool spells and brief wet, stormy breaks, but otherwise the dry spell has been relentless and frustratingly boring.

The sunshine has been nice (except when it gets extremely hot), as have the balmy evenings. But I hate going for 7 or more days without any measurable rainfall; the number one consequence of this weather pattern is that it's left my corner of Melbourne (the normally green, lush Dandenong Ranges) parched brown like it's high-summer out on the Northern Plains and in the Murray Valley further north. Not good when it comes to bushfires. And it's either been dangerously windy, or not enough wind to disperse the burn-off smoke which affects my sinus allergies. No wonder I've been sick, sick, SICK to death of it!!! mad mad mad

I'm just glad that most of the time, Victoria gets plenty of weather variety in all seasons, especially in spring and summer. We had some great storm action from October/November right through to the end of January! wink

Anyway, it looks like this dry, storm-free weather pattern is finally about to end! grin

Here's my post for the full 10-day period since I returned from Corryong, Northeast Victoria over the Easter break. smile

Wednesday April 4th 2018
Rain: 0mm Low: 9.5C High: 28.3C

Thursday April 5th 2018
Rain: 0mm Low: 10.1C High: 23.0C

Friday April 6th 2018
Rain: 0mm Low: 12.5C High: 24.5C

Saturday April 7th 2018
Rain: 0mm Low: 8.1C High: 27.2C

Sunday April 8th 2018
Rain: 0mm Low: 13.3C High: 33.6C

Monday April 9th 2018
Rain: TRACE Low: 14.7C High: 29.3C

Tuesday April 10th 2018
Rain: 0mm Low: 16.2C High: 33.9C

Wednesday April 11th 2018
Rain: TRACE Low: 16.7C High: 30.2C

Thursday April 12th 2018
Rain: TRACE Low: 14.7C High: 29.4C

Friday April 13th 2018
Rain: 0mm Low: 11.4C High: 28.8C


Overall, a very warm to hot, dry, mostly sunny Indian Summer (with generally light winds) over the past 10-day period. At times it looked like my record high April maximum and minimum of 35.2C (April 1st 2014) and 21.3C (April 2nd 2014) respectively would be matched or even beaten. But nay. poke

The humid, unstable, showery and thundery weather on Tuesday April 10th (thanks to the preceding trough and low earlier in the week) brought some welcome rain which fell moderately heavy at times. We also had one clap of thunder and flash of lightning as a rogue, surprise thunderstorm cell passed over around 3pm haha, with a couple of distant possible lightning flashes from other nearby storms after dark (unless my eyes were playing tricks on me). grin

Sadly the rain that did occur on Tuesday (and again on Wednesday and Thursday) was either insufficient to register or this dry spell has started messing with my electronic weather station's rain gauge. No measurable rainfall whatsoever so far this month! frown crazy

I've seen some weird temperature spikes at night (mainly in September/October as a result of warm, blustery northerlies ahead of a strong springtime cold front), but yesterday's early-morning temperature spike was mind-boggling! It dipped to 14.7C shortly after midnight, and then the mercury jumped by over 10C in around an hour!! eek

The 29.4C high registered yesterday was just before 5am in the morning btw; I'm not sure what the maximum during the afternoon was unfortunately.

As for today...

Mostly clear with almost-hot sunshine, a strengthening, blustery northerly wind, a few sporadic fast-moving cumulus, and a band of high cirrus this afternoon that cleared over Melbourne in time for a gorgeous pre-storm sunset! smile

The barometric pressure has been plummeting all day as a result of the impending storm system. Earlier this morning it was in the neighbourhood of 1010hPa. At the last check it was 999hPa.

The temperature this evening has been hovering more-or-less around 21C, but the change has just reached Belgrave! Brrr... eek

Pity my wind vane seems to be malfunctioning again. frown

Also a shame I'm not back up in Corryong. Check out all those storms that have suddenly flared to life over the past hour or so up in Northeast Victoria and adjacent parts of Southern NSW on the Yarrawonga radar. frown

Top
#1461714 - 14/04/2018 08:08 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 595
Loc: Corryong
Thunderstorms all around last night with very heavy downpours we had 14.5mm rain and a power blackout for three hours.

Top
#1461727 - 14/04/2018 11:49 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
No rain overnight up here.

But here it comes now, just started raining
Solidly and very wind and becoming cold !!

11c currently

Top
#1461730 - 14/04/2018 12:15 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2614
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Been useless light showers, windy first cold feelings of 11.9c at 12.15pm

Top
#1461733 - 14/04/2018 12:52 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
This Squall Line looks nasty..... lets see what it brings
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
#1461735 - 14/04/2018 12:56 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
WOW at this junk radar. Heaviest rain so far and just light colours here. Have cracked 15mm today - great stuff
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1461736 - 14/04/2018 13:05 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Yeah, first decent rain in months the week they take Laverton back offline. 😂

Bucketing down here. Small hail, very large rain drops, standing water on the ground.


Edited by dlcat1 (14/04/2018 13:08)

Top
#1461740 - 14/04/2018 14:07 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
19.5mm emptied. Temp up to 9.7c with the sun out for awhile now. At 120pm just after the wind shift we dropped to 7.4c.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1461744 - 14/04/2018 14:43 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Well that was fun! Invigorating wintry chill, plus a burst of stormy weather action to give me a short adrenaline rush. And finally some rain! grin

Been a cold, damp, windy, stormy day up here in Belgrave. Top temperature was 17.3C (just before 1am), with an overnight low of 12.1C earlier this morning.

Last night's front (the first for this storm event) sadly failed to deliver any rain to us. It left only a rather cool, gusty air mass with a distinctively odd damp, salty scent. poke

The weather began deteriorating early this morning ahead of the second, much stronger polar blast that was rotating around the main low to the south. Overcast and cold with very strong winds and bursts of rain and showers, which increased as the second cold front closed in on Melbourne. The temperature up here in Belgrave fluctuated around 11-14C for much of the morning.

I've heard reports of a small bushfire/grassfire flaring up down near Lysterfield earlier this morning; hoping the CFA as well as the rain were able to get it under control.

The front charged in shortly after 1pm. It got extremely dark, and then the next thing we know we were being lashed by a 20-minute storm with violent wind squalls and very heavy showers and even hail! No thunderstorm activity though.

Peak rainfall rate of 79.8mm/hr as the storm swept overhead, with 7.4mm during that 20-minute period (out of an event total of 9.5mm).

The hail only lashed a few minutes, but it was very heavy; it looked like piles of snow on my car parked outside lol. smile

The temperature plummeted from around 11C to 8.1C during and immediately after the front's passage, with the barometer showing bottoming out at 993hPa.

The rain persisted for another hour or so following the main storm front. It stopped around 2:15pm, and the Sun poked out behind the clouds about 5 minutes ago! smile

The mercury's inching back above 10C right now, with the barometric pressure still only 994hPa. Pity my wind vane is not working on my weather station.

Looks like more showers and maybe storms are swarming into Melbourne as the cold pool surges in! smile

Also a wattle tree got damaged by the winds earlier this morning not far from my place.

Top
#1461745 - 14/04/2018 14:49 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Solid rain here now for over an hour, it's now
Winter out the 7.6c! Fire is ticking nicely and
Very strong wind blowing

Top
#1461764 - 14/04/2018 17:35 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2614
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had 10mm rain today thanks to cold uppers helps a lot than any tropical rain failed so far from past summer...

Its was good change as we forgotten last time see heavy clouds, hurricane winds, rainy, cold than very long blue sunny days..

Top
#1461766 - 14/04/2018 18:01 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
2.5mm here. Nothing out of earlier front(s)/rain band(s). Temp has dropped dramatically.

Top
#1461767 - 14/04/2018 18:07 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7378
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Strong NW'ly here until the change mid arvo, then SW'ly with 4.25mm rain with the change, ...which with the drop in temps, saw Petros-the-woos back into the bar at Royal Maffra after 11 holes frown


Baro 994 hPa atm, saw 992 not long ago.

Hoping for a squally night, need far more than 4mm in these parts, will fire up the heater for the first tonight.

Top
#1461794 - 15/04/2018 08:03 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 595
Loc: Corryong
Another 5.5mm rain for us so 20mm all up. After our 50mm three weeks ago our country is up and going. Very cold lit fire yesterday. Disappointing to see you get little rain Petros usually you get as much or more than us. Maps looking not bad in next couple weeks this morning.

Top
#1461797 - 15/04/2018 08:17 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Got an additional 2mm later in early evening to make total of 4.5 for event. As the only rain so far this month, 15mm for March,and nothing in next 7 days ... the dry is stretching out.

Top
#1461818 - 15/04/2018 14:34 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2614
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Today feels dry overcast and warmer W/SW of 18.2c

Top
#1461822 - 15/04/2018 14:50 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wonderful kind of warm front type of event going on atm as we sit on northern edge of cold pool.

After another 1mm in coldies yesterday arvo the drizzle fog and mizzle along with rising temps and DP's began about 1am here.

Just after midday I emptied 8.4mm (includes the 1mm mentioned above) so event total till then 27.9mm. After that 10 minute burst of hazy sun the mizzle has sinced re closed in so the total is being added to.

Temp has been 13.8c today, DP has even gone over 12
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1461829 - 15/04/2018 17:40 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Another 1.4mm of off and on mist so up to 29.3mm
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1461830 - 15/04/2018 18:04 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Just emptied out a beautiful 34mm 👍

Absolutely perfect timing to get that rain!!

And there is still low cloud and heavy drizzle
Blowing across the ridge

Top
#1461834 - 15/04/2018 18:39 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7378
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I found 0.25mm in my gauge before - which I emptied quickly before it could evaporate. 4.5mm for this multi-day windy event for Maffra.

Note to self: "weak La Nina events into early summer do not maketh an early Autumn break for N Gippy".

I bet most other oldies will agree, if we DO get an Autumn break this season, it'll be water up to our gills.

In the meantime, it's a dry 8 day outlook by GFS on this mornings run...

Top
#1461851 - 15/04/2018 22:49 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A stark contrast to the Indian Summer over the past few weeks. crazy

Today was my coldest day for the year so far up here in Belgrave, with a top of only 15.4C. The overnight low was 8.1C (tying with April 7th for my coldest minimum for 2018 to date), but oddly enough it was registered less than an hour after yesterday afternoon's storm front (around 1:30-2pm). Most of the night, the temperature hovered around 10C. And for most of the day it was ranging between 10-15C, and it's still around 14C right now. poke

Since my last post we had further showers come through during the afternoon and well into the evening. The rain contracted to the coastal areas south of Melbourne last night, leaving us with 10.6mm in the 24 hours to 9am.

Showers resumed after 9:30am today, at times heavier than the radar suggested! Virtually no sunshine whatsoever; the whole day it was overcast with very low, fast-moving clouds. The showers appear to have cleared off now, but should resume again tomorrow with the passage of another cold front.

At the last check I had collected a further 8.4mm of rain since 9am. After a ridiculously dry first half of April 2018, the monthly (and event) total now stands at a more reasonable-in-context 19mm. smile

It was less windy than yesterday, with the strongest winds easing long after the heaviest showers had contracted away from our area last night. However the winds still caused the rain to blow at a bit of an angle at times during the day.

Very strange that the winds are westerly; the Dandenong Ranges normally require the winds to be blowing from either the northwest or the southwest for us to receive substantial bay-effect rainfall from Port Phillip. Not that I mind! smile

Plenty of sporadic wind damage about the place, mostly in the form of uprooted or snapped trees or fallen tree limbs, especially while I was down in Dandenong this morning and Ferntree Gully this arvo.

On a plus note, the rain has helped green the place up a bit. And I saw Dandenong Creek up a bit earlier this morning. smile


Further to my post...

The recent prolonged hot, dry spell has put us a little behind schedule in terms of meeting our monthly average low minimum and maximum temperature targets as we transition from summer to winter, although we've managed to meet a few thresholds and even break a few record lows this year so far!

Here's my stats for the January-April period, based on by records mainly from 2012 up until now (April 15th 2018). Note that the asterix indicates where a record has been broken this year:


January
Mean low minimum: 9.8C
Mean low maximum: 21.4C

Low minimum for January 2018: 9.3C (January 14th) *
Low maximum for January 2018: 20.9C (January 30th)

* Previous record low minimum for January: 9.5C (January 22nd 2017)

Record low maximum: 16.6C (January 29th 2016)


February
Mean low minimum: 8.9C
Mean low maximum: 21.2C

Low minimum for February 2018: 8.2C (February 1st) *
Low maximum for February 2018: 22.1C (February 25th)

* Previous record low minimum for February: 8.5C (February 15th, February 20th, and February 21st 2017)

Record low maximum: 19.4C (February 12th, and February 19th 2017)


March
Mean low minimum: 7.8C
Mean low maximum: 18.2C

Low minimum for March 2018: 8.2C (March 26th)
Low maximum for March 2018: 18.8C (March 20th)

Record low minimum: 7.3C (March 31st 2017)
Record low maximum: 15.2C (March 24th 2015)


April
Mean low minimum: 6.2C
Mean low maximum: 15.0C

Low minimum for April 2018: 8.1C (April 7th, & April 15th)
Low maximum for February 2018: 15.4C (April 15th)

Record low minimum: 4.4C (April 20th 2015)
Record low maximum: 13.4C (April 25th 2012)


As a result of this cold spell, Melbourne is forecast to dip to 9C on Wednesday, while Scoresby and Mount Dandenong are expected to drop to 6C and 4C respectively. That should help get us back on track as we continue our "downhill run" towards winter, not-to-mention give the autumn colours a helping hand. I'm predicting a low of around 5C here in Belgrave Wednesday morning! smile

And now, thanks to this cold, wet weather (which I was able to enjoy indoors), I can look forward to the warm weather that's forecast to return to Melbourne from Wednesday until at least the early part of next week! smile

I do share everyone else's sentiments though. We really need a proper autumn break across the whole of Victoria. frown

I'll be watching the models closely, as ACCESS and GFS have several wayfaring lows and troughs towards the latter part of the upcoming 7-10 day period, which may hopefully bring some more useful autumn rain and maybe some thunderstorm action. smile

Top
#1461862 - 16/04/2018 08:24 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 595
Loc: Corryong
another 5.5mm rain over last 24hours was very light misty rain nearly all day. Now 25.5mm

Top
#1461878 - 16/04/2018 13:40 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: Alexia]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
Moderator

Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3965
Loc: Bayles / Toorloo Arm
23.7mm between 9am Saturday and 9am this morning at home in Bayles. Pretty happy with that but we need a heap more. We have these cracks in the ground everywhere at home.

Top
#1461888 - 16/04/2018 17:47 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7378
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.....looks like you've trundled that thing all the way down to Royal Maffra Loo! - not that you'd find any grass to cut.

Very mild morning here (18C at 6am), got to 23C before the midday'ish change. Got 0.5mm this time.

Cold windy 15.5C here now. Baro back up to 1013 hPa, end of this cold change event and back to warm in coming days.

Top
#1461910 - 16/04/2018 21:31 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6343
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Another 1.1mm since last post so got to 30.4mm
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

Top
#1461912 - 16/04/2018 23:36 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached 20.7C here in Belgrave today. A damp, chilly, mostly cloudy day with a few morning sunny breaks, followed by afternoon showers.

Due to cloudcover (and high humidity) last night, I'm unable to say what today's actual minimum temperature was; the lowest I saw it get down to on my weather station last night was 13.6C.

I collected an additional 1mm of rain, so 20mm for the event and for the month so far. Most of the time the rain was in sprinkling showers or drizzle, but occasionally it was surprisingly heavy.

Plenty of fog/low cloud clinging to the Dandenong Ranges today, especially while I was down in Boronia this arvo. Very little wind thankfully.

At the last check a few hours ago it was still around 13C.

Top
#1461978 - 17/04/2018 21:07 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2077
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
7mm in the gauge, first check of same in ten days, over Maffra today, desert !

Top
#1462024 - 18/04/2018 11:49 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2614
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had first coldest morning almost to be frost of 3.4c at 6.50am...

Top
#1462074 - 19/04/2018 08:27 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I still haven't got my winter veggies in the garden. I don't need frost yet haha
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

Top
Page 1 of 2 1 2 >


Who's Online
8 registered (petethemoskeet, whiztler, ashestoashes, Lee@Hazo, scott12, mysteriousbrad, 2 invisible), 370 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
Evil Kitty, Jake, ka0tik_pengwin, Nullamanna WX, shaunandwendy, stormygirl
Forum Stats
29681 Members
32 Forums
23981 Topics
1501109 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image