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#1461450 - 11/04/2018 14:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: DDstorm]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2636
Loc: Chillagoe
Originally Posted By: DDstorm
Think there maybe a few of us cold@28, like me, sitting in the winds waiting for the more learner-ed ones to enlighten us all as to her ability to regain the stature of "TC Iris" again.

Quite aside from it being a cyclone or not, I find it fascinating that a weather system like this has a "life" as such, identifiable over long periods of time and travels.

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#1461455 - 11/04/2018 15:32 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2398
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
The official outlook is

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea

IDQ10810
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea

Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 11 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Saturday 14 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:

Nil.
Potential Cyclones:

At 1pm AEST Wednesday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was situated in the northern Coral Sea. The system is expected to move slowly westwards on Thursday and remain offshore from the Queensland coast during the outlook period.

There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Thursday:Low
Friday:Low
Saturday:Low
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#1461465 - 11/04/2018 17:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: cold@28]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 300
Loc: Tallai, QLD
You're not wrong and life does appear to be breathing back into her (if I have it right), plenty of convection on satview but TPW animation shows a lot of dry air to her south and comin up fast.
Hang in there baby
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#1461466 - 11/04/2018 17:19 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
MangroveJack70 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 220
Current position of the JTWC - Medium:

ABPW10 PGTW 110600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZAPR2018//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZAPR2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/


B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 154.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 151.8E,
APPROXIMATELY 436 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL
102341Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL
STRUCTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION. RMNTS 17P IS EXPERIENCING LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BOTH
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE FUELING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-29C) AND ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT.
SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT RMNTS 17P TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AND
REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
THOUGH NOT ALL MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
NNNN


Edited by MangroveJack70 (11/04/2018 17:20)

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#1461486 - 11/04/2018 21:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1354
Loc: Whitsundays
Total Precipitable Water is not looking good for Iris as the dry air pushes north over the coral sea, however she looks brilliant on the satellite so maybe the warm SSTs will push that dry air away.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/ausf/main.html

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17P/flash-vis-long.html
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#1461490 - 11/04/2018 21:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 587
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld

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#1461496 - 11/04/2018 23:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Flowin]
Wrasse42 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2013
Posts: 324
Loc: Gladstone, Queensland
thatís amazing, thanks for the link Iíve bookmarked that one.

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#1461573 - 12/04/2018 16:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13080
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
BOM still only going for a low chance of development in the next 3 days.
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#1461646 - 13/04/2018 15:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
thats all she wrote..

Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 13 April 2018
for the period until midnight EST Monday 16 April 2018.

Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:

The surface circulation of ex-tropical cyclone Iris has continued to weaken in the far northern Coral Sea near Papua New Guinea. It is now rated a very low chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone.

There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on:
Saturday:Very low
Sunday:Very low
Monday:Very low
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#1461670 - 13/04/2018 17:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: Moranbah
Say it isn't so...!!!!

There's still some rotation/convection going on...don't write the ol' girl off just yet... laugh

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#1461692 - 13/04/2018 20:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2636
Loc: Chillagoe
Barely hanging in there.
Would love to see her go travelling again.

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#1461700 - 13/04/2018 22:40 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Petar @ Sdny Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/03/2007
Posts: 570
Loc: South West Sydney
That's all she wrote folks. Iris had a good innings.
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#1461710 - 14/04/2018 06:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
RC Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2401
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Good riddance I say. It did nothing but continue the extended dry spell we are going through. Not a drop of rain from it.

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#1461738 - 14/04/2018 13:57 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Tempest Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3585
Certainly cant complain here, we got some rain from Iris

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#1461748 - 14/04/2018 15:14 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: RC]
Vinnie Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6555
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
Originally Posted By: RC
Good riddance I say. It did nothing but continue the extended dry spell we are going through. Not a drop of rain from it.


When you say "we" you mean Rockhampton?
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#1461778 - 14/04/2018 21:56 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2636
Loc: Chillagoe
Has she actually finally......gone?

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#1461841 - 15/04/2018 19:58 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: cold@28]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5120
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: cold@28
Has she actually finally......gone?


Hard to believe isn't it. One of the most impressive systems ever(if somewhat underwhelming). What a stayer.

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#1461846 - 15/04/2018 21:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5578
Here's the path Iris/ex-Iris took during its life up to 00z Friday:




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#1461848 - 15/04/2018 22:02 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
cold@28 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2636
Loc: Chillagoe
Thank you Ken. Appreciate the track.

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#1461855 - 16/04/2018 04:47 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1994
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
I reckon you can still just see her (well the remains) just north of Cape Melville

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/sohemiloops/shirgmscol.html

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