#1461450 - 11/04/2018 14:54
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: DDstorm]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2380
Loc: Chillagoe
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Think there maybe a few of us cold@28, like me, sitting in the winds waiting for the more learner-ed ones to enlighten us all as to her ability to regain the stature of "TC Iris" again. Quite aside from it being a cyclone or not, I find it fascinating that a weather system like this has a "life" as such, identifiable over long periods of time and travels.
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#1461455 - 11/04/2018 15:32
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2352
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
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The official outlook is
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for The Coral Sea
IDQ10810 Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea
Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Wednesday 11 April 2018 for the period until midnight EST Saturday 14 April 2018. Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region:
Nil. Potential Cyclones:
At 1pm AEST Wednesday, ex-tropical cyclone Iris was situated in the northern Coral Sea. The system is expected to move slowly westwards on Thursday and remain offshore from the Queensland coast during the outlook period.
There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on: Thursday:Low Friday:Low Saturday:Low
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Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming
Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.
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#1461465 - 11/04/2018 17:16
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: cold@28]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 232
Loc: Tallai, QLD
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You're not wrong and life does appear to be breathing back into her (if I have it right), plenty of convection on satview but TPW animation shows a lot of dry air to her south and comin up fast. Hang in there baby
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd
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#1461466 - 11/04/2018 17:19
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 218
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Current position of the JTWC - Medium:
ABPW10 PGTW 110600 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/110600Z-120600ZAPR2018// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/110151ZAPR2018// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF 17P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 154.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5S 151.8E, APPROXIMATELY 436 NM NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 102341Z METOP-A 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND DEEP CONVECTION. RMNTS 17P IS EXPERIENCING LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KT), AND STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND BOTH POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ARE FUELING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (28-29C) AND ARE CONDUCIVE TO DEVELOPMENT. SOME GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT RMNTS 17P TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AND REDEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THOUGH NOT ALL MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.// NNNN
Edited by MangroveJack70 (11/04/2018 17:20)
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#1461490 - 11/04/2018 21:37
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 402
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
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#1461573 - 12/04/2018 16:01
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weatherzone Moderator
Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12944
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
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BOM still only going for a low chance of development in the next 3 days.
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#1461646 - 13/04/2018 15:14
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1140
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
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thats all she wrote..
Tropical Cyclone Outlook for Coral Sea Issued at 2:30 pm EST on Friday 13 April 2018 for the period until midnight EST Monday 16 April 2018.
Existing Cyclones in the Eastern Region: Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
The surface circulation of ex-tropical cyclone Iris has continued to weaken in the far northern Coral Sea near Papua New Guinea. It is now rated a very low chance of redeveloping into a tropical cyclone.
There are no other significant systems in the Coral Sea and none are expected to develop during the next three days.
Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Region on: Saturday:Very low Sunday:Very low Monday:Very low
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!
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#1461670 - 13/04/2018 17:30
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weather Freak
Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 154
Loc: Moranbah
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Say it isn't so...!!!! There's still some rotation/convection going on...don't write the ol' girl off just yet... 
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#1461692 - 13/04/2018 20:57
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2380
Loc: Chillagoe
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Barely hanging in there. Would love to see her go travelling again.
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#1461710 - 14/04/2018 06:58
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2246
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
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Good riddance I say. It did nothing but continue the extended dry spell we are going through. Not a drop of rain from it.
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#1461738 - 14/04/2018 13:57
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 17/11/2001
Posts: 3584
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Certainly cant complain here, we got some rain from Iris
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#1461748 - 14/04/2018 15:14
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: RC]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 17/05/2006
Posts: 6446
Loc: Mulambin , Yeppoon Central Qld
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Good riddance I say. It did nothing but continue the extended dry spell we are going through. Not a drop of rain from it. When you say "we" you mean Rockhampton?
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#1461778 - 14/04/2018 21:56
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Dawgggg]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2380
Loc: Chillagoe
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Has she actually finally......gone?
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#1461841 - 15/04/2018 19:58
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: cold@28]
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Meteorological Motor Mouth
Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5073
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
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Has she actually finally......gone? Hard to believe isn't it. One of the most impressive systems ever(if somewhat underwhelming). What a stayer.
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#1461848 - 15/04/2018 22:02
Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
[Re: Ken Kato]
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Weatherzone Addict
Registered: 07/02/2011
Posts: 2380
Loc: Chillagoe
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Thank you Ken. Appreciate the track.
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