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#1460109 - 01/04/2018 16:21 Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23689
Loc: Townsville
Latest EC has the Low stalling just off the Herbert coastline NE of Palm Island before skirting east.

Expect a watch or flash warning soon.
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#1460110 - 01/04/2018 16:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 13080
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
BOM mention that a SWW will be issued later today in their weather update (posted an hour ago):

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#1460111 - 01/04/2018 16:24 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23689
Loc: Townsville
I think they will put a SWW but they absolutely have to do a watch now.

Gales may affect the whitsunday islands tomorrow night.
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#1460114 - 01/04/2018 16:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23689
Loc: Townsville
I think they were just waiting for EC
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#1460119 - 01/04/2018 16:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
I like to know when will we be in a TC watch/Tc Warning?

That is all I need to know.


Edited by Mathew (01/04/2018 16:46)
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Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 751.5mm > 52.62mm - 124.32mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 37.2mm month 71.7mm / 0.3mm

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#1460120 - 01/04/2018 16:46 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Davey440 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 20/03/2012
Posts: 25
EC Look to have it hugging the coast from about Ingham to Bowen... That will bring a lot of rain to a large length of the coast...

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#1460122 - 01/04/2018 16:49 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Davey440]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Originally Posted By: Davey440
EC Look to have it hugging the coast from about Ingham to Bowen... That will bring a lot of rain to a large length of the coast...


Aww i like hugs...bear hugs from Ex Iris hehe
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#1460123 - 01/04/2018 16:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
rainthisway Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 09/11/2015
Posts: 810
Loc: Watsonville, Atherton Tablelan...
Also someone mentioned south movement of her on the satelite...I can see south movement but only of her expanding outter bands not the centre of the low itself.
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#1460125 - 01/04/2018 17:09 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
iluvrain Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 421
Loc: Forrest Beach/Allingham
Far Out paid extra 4 hrs ago to change my flight to 7am tomorrow Sydney to Cairns to get home to Ingham,, will be spewing if the rivers come up before i can get home .. should have left tonight 😭
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#1460128 - 01/04/2018 17:16 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: rainthisway]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5120
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: rainthisway
Also someone mentioned south movement of her on the satelite...I can see south movement but only of her expanding outter bands not the centre of the low itself.


Circulation is definitely moving south if the Willis obs are anything to go by. Wind was directly from the east around midday and is now from the NE and will back around to the north soon enough I would guess. Judging from that the centre will pass just to the west of Willis before to long. Next few hours.

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#1460129 - 01/04/2018 17:22 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1994
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Looks to be just East of Bouganville reef at the moment already West of Willis, just a tad to the North.

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#1460130 - 01/04/2018 17:23 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Radioguy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 15/03/2018
Posts: 10
Severe Weather Warning for DAMAGING WINDS and HEAVY RAINFALL
For people in parts of North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, Herbert and Lower Burdekin and Central Coast and Whitsundays Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:56 pm Sunday, 1 April 2018.
Weather Situation:

Ex-tropical cyclone Iris was located at 4pm approximately 400km east-northeast of Cairns and moving south-southwest at 5 km/h. It is expected to move southward this evening and track closer to the coast on Monday and Tuesday. There remains some level of uncertainty regarding its movement and development over the coming days. There is a moderate chance that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone on Tuesday or Wednesday and Tropical Cyclone Advices will be issued if threat increases.

Damaging winds, with peak gusts of around 90km/h, may develop about the coast, islands and higher terrain within the warning area during Monday evening or Tuesday morning.

Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is also expected to develop from Monday evening. Six hour totals of 150 to 200m are likely with local falls up to 300mm possible. 24 hour totals of 200 to 300mm are expected.

A Flood Watch for coastal catchments between Cairns and Rockhampton are current.

Locations which may be affected include Proserpine, Bowen, Townsville, Palm Island, Hamilton Island, Ingham, Innisfail, Ayr and Cardwell.



Edited by Radioguy (01/04/2018 17:25)

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#1460132 - 01/04/2018 17:25 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: marakai]
Brett Guy Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/10/2010
Posts: 5120
Loc: Bently Park, Cairns
Originally Posted By: marakai
Looks to be just East of Bouganville reef at the moment already West of Willis, just a tad to the North.


Looking at the radar I was making a guess at about half way in between the two but it is fairly messy and hard to pinpoint for me.

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#1460134 - 01/04/2018 17:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Looks like CMC and EC (EC not shown below) are currently the outliers on the 00z model runs.



With the exception of AEMN (GFS Ensemble mean), the models that intensify Ex Iris push her generally SE. I believe "CAT 1" in the below chart is the equivalent of Aussie CAT 3. Anyone chime in if this is incorrect.

Still very interesting times ahead!



Edited by Dan101 (01/04/2018 17:33)

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#1460135 - 01/04/2018 17:30 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5578
AEMN is actually the ensemble mean of the GFS ensemble, not ACCESS.

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#1460137 - 01/04/2018 17:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
AEMN is actually the ensemble mean of the GFS ensemble, not ACCESS.


Awesome, thanks Ken. Corrected above. smile

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#1460139 - 01/04/2018 17:37 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5578
No worries Dan smile

Below is the ASCAT wind analysis (satellite) at 5:04pm EST which shows the position of ex-Iris.

There’s some rain contamination of the data near the centre but not enough to hide its centre:




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#1460140 - 01/04/2018 17:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Dan101 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/03/2011
Posts: 312
Loc: Mackay, QLD
Anyone know why CIMSS has dropped this system Iris from their map?

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu

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#1460141 - 01/04/2018 17:43 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dan101]
Mathew Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/01/2006
Posts: 6816
Loc: Townsville, Queensland
Maybe the BOM know it's all first and weather zone forums.

That is all I can tell you.


Edited by Mathew (01/04/2018 17:44)
_________________________
Rs tl 2018-19 Wet Season. > tl 19/01/18 751.5mm > 52.62mm - 124.32mm
Aug 8/16/17->> 11/23/17 8:00am last night 24.9mm
06/30/18 Dec 3:12pm > Yr 609.0mm / Weekly rain 37.2mm month 71.7mm / 0.3mm

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#1460143 - 01/04/2018 17:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
FujiWha Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/01/2011
Posts: 155
Loc: Moranbah
If the system re-intensifies to TC status, will it still have the same name..?

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