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#1460597 - 03/04/2018 10:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: PVW]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23687
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: PVW
BOM have removed the future tracking of Iris from MetEye.
I wonder why they’d do that?!?


Conspiracy
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#1460599 - 03/04/2018 10:34 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
exodus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/12/2007
Posts: 593
Loc: Mount Louisa, Townsville
Look at the MetEye Tuesday 10th wind speed view, big difference to the Monday evening view...

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#1460601 - 03/04/2018 10:54 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
breezy04 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2014
Posts: 457
Loc: whitsundays
Is iris in a radar blind spot?
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#1460602 - 03/04/2018 11:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12962
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Iris looks like she is being sheared to shreds at the moment, with the LLC almost exposed on the visible sat image.
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#1460603 - 03/04/2018 11:06 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
ROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 11:03 am EST on Tuesday 3 April 2018

Headline:
Tropical cyclone warning remains current. Iris remains category 2 off the Herbert and Lower Burdekin coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
Ayr to Sarina, including Mackay and the Whitsunday Islands.

Watch Zone
Sarina to St Lawrence.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Iris at 10:00 am AEST:
Intensity: Category 2, sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 45 kilometres of 17.1 degrees South 149.0 degrees East, estimated to be 335 kilometres northeast of Townsville and 450 kilometres north of Mackay.

Movement: southeast at 4 km/h.

Tropical cyclone Iris remains a category 2 cyclone off the Herbert and Lower Burdekin coast.

Tropical cyclone Iris is expected to continue moving slowly to the southeast, parallel to the Queensland coast, for the next two days while slowly intensifying. On Thursday the cyclone should slow down and begin to weaken. It may reverse direction and adopt a track to the northwest overnight Thursday or on Friday. The cyclone is not expected to cross the Queensland coast in the short to medium term, but may approach the coast close enough to produce significant impacts.

Hazards:
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS are occurring close to the core of the cyclone. These DESTRUCTIVE WINDS may impact the coastal fringe and islands between Bowen and Mackay, including the Whitsunday Islands, from early Wednesday morning if the cyclone takes a more southerly track than expected.

GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Ayr and Sarina, including Mackay and the Whitsunday Islands, from this evening or early Wednesday morning. These GALES may then extend south to St Lawrence later on Wednesday.

Heavy rainfall which may lead to flash flooding may develop during Tuesday and Wednesday. A Flood Watch is current for coastal catchments between Rollingstone and St Lawrence.

Recommended Action:
People between Ayr and Sarina including Mackay and the Whitsunday Islands, and adjacent inland areas, should immediately commence or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight hours.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

People between Sarina and St Lawrence should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 2:00 pm AEST Tuesday 03 April.


Edited by ol mate (03/04/2018 11:06)
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#1460605 - 03/04/2018 11:28 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3123
Loc: Buderim
The convection flaring hundreds of kilometers to the south east of where the center is supposed to be, seems to have a spot that looks suspiciously like an eye? Only on IR, and not on visible.

Visible shows LLCC appears to be fully exposed, but I can only spot it in animation, and it looks very weak. Possible that the current flaring convection could take over the role as primary circulation center?

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#1460606 - 03/04/2018 11:33 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Raindammit]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Raindammit
Iris looks like she is being sheared to shreds at the moment, with the LLC almost exposed on the visible sat image.


It certainly has the appearances of missing parts; however, I just looped the last 20 images of the visual sat pictures and it is consolidating convection on the equator side. It's in a good environment free of shear, so it might have been drawing in some drier air. Give it a few more hours and it should look a lot more annular.
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#1460607 - 03/04/2018 11:35 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12962
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks to me this is where the centre is on the animated visible image:



Which lines up with the BOM track map.
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#1460608 - 03/04/2018 11:38 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Pacman Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 14/11/2001
Posts: 5235
Loc: Cairns - Upper Bentley Park
It seems the Coral sea and GOC live up to there notorious reputation of having the most erratic cyclone systems on the planet.

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#1460609 - 03/04/2018 11:39 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: weather junky]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5213
Originally Posted By: weather junky
Sorry Ken . Did not mean to upset anyone . Just having fun this late until it was out .
Cheers

Lol I don’t even remember your comment either anyway. My comment was more meant in a general sense.

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#1460611 - 03/04/2018 11:45 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Remember, the curvature of the Earth makes these images seem flatter than they really are. I have the centre about an inch further south than your plot RD. The circulation makes more sense from this position as well. But I have been known to be cockeyed. wink
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#1460612 - 03/04/2018 11:48 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Tailwind Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 45
Loc: Mackay
BOM maps has it doing a 180 degree and heading back north on Thursday.

Can it potentially strengthen again?

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#1460613 - 03/04/2018 11:50 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2364
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
2 days of loop the loop off Mackay - nightmare for locals of the Whitsundays

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
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Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1460614 - 03/04/2018 11:51 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Red Watch Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 441
Loc: Cranbrook, Townsville
It is just to the south east of flinders reef according to the radar and obs from the reef.

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#1460615 - 03/04/2018 11:53 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
WANDJINA G'vale Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 22/03/2006
Posts: 2364
Loc: Gordonvale - Qld
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Wandjina - Cloud and rain spirits from Australian Aboriginal dreaming

Daisey Bates - The passing of the aborigines.

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#1460616 - 03/04/2018 11:55 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Raindammit Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 14/02/2002
Posts: 12962
Loc: Townsville & Bilyana NQ
Looks impressive, except for the fact that the convection is located well South of the centre.
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Belgian Gardens, Townsville NQ
Bilyana FNQ

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#1460618 - 03/04/2018 12:01 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
breezy04 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2014
Posts: 457
Loc: whitsundays
Last year a lot of people didn't really pay attention to Debbie until it was to late, however this time round in the Whitsunday's people have got the get up and get organised juices flowing, supermarkets are full, fuel stations are flat out, breads almost gone, milk is getting hammered, good to see. Not panicked either just preparedness


Edited by breezy04 (03/04/2018 12:03)
Edit Reason: add text
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#1460619 - 03/04/2018 12:11 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
ol mate Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/03/2010
Posts: 1141
Loc: Ingham, North Qld
so She'll stall, then possible re-track NW - most have it washing out in this scenario before it gets anywhere though, thoughts? someone has posted an image of this track on a local FB page setup after the floods. Everyone here is now in panic mode lol.
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Ingham - Golden Gumboot holder of the Northern Region - cuz we steal Townsville's Rain!

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#1460620 - 03/04/2018 12:12 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: breezy04]
Rainrunner Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 1353
Loc: Whitsundays
Originally Posted By: breezy04
Last year a lot of people didn't really pay attention to Debbie until it was to late, however this time round in the Whitsunday's people have got the get up and get organised juices flowing, supermarkets are full, fuel stations are flat out, breads almost gone, milk is getting hammered, good to see. Not panicked either just preparedness

You're not wrong there breezy, woolies in Canonvale was flat out at 8:40am this morning, and I had to visit three supermarkets before I found my favoured milk - Mungalli full cream smile
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Cyclone Chasee: Debbie 2017, Ului 2010, Dylan & Ita 2014

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#1460622 - 03/04/2018 12:13 Re: Tropical Cyclone Iris - Coral Sea - April 2018 [Re: Rainrunner]
breezy04 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 29/01/2014
Posts: 457
Loc: whitsundays
lolol, can't not have the good stuff R.R..
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Unless someone like you cares a whole awful lot, nothing is going to get better. It's not.
Dr. Seuss

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