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#1461818 - 15/04/2018 14:34 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2538
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Today feels dry overcast and warmer W/SW of 18.2c

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#1461822 - 15/04/2018 14:50 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Wonderful kind of warm front type of event going on atm as we sit on northern edge of cold pool.

After another 1mm in coldies yesterday arvo the drizzle fog and mizzle along with rising temps and DP's began about 1am here.

Just after midday I emptied 8.4mm (includes the 1mm mentioned above) so event total till then 27.9mm. After that 10 minute burst of hazy sun the mizzle has sinced re closed in so the total is being added to.

Temp has been 13.8c today, DP has even gone over 12
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1461829 - 15/04/2018 17:40 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Another 1.4mm of off and on mist so up to 29.3mm
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1461830 - 15/04/2018 18:04 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Just emptied out a beautiful 34mm 👍

Absolutely perfect timing to get that rain!!

And there is still low cloud and heavy drizzle
Blowing across the ridge

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#1461834 - 15/04/2018 18:39 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I found 0.25mm in my gauge before - which I emptied quickly before it could evaporate. 4.5mm for this multi-day windy event for Maffra.

Note to self: "weak La Nina events into early summer do not maketh an early Autumn break for N Gippy".

I bet most other oldies will agree, if we DO get an Autumn break this season, it'll be water up to our gills.

In the meantime, it's a dry 8 day outlook by GFS on this mornings run...

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#1461851 - 15/04/2018 22:49 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
A stark contrast to the Indian Summer over the past few weeks. crazy

Today was my coldest day for the year so far up here in Belgrave, with a top of only 15.4C. The overnight low was 8.1C (tying with April 7th for my coldest minimum for 2018 to date), but oddly enough it was registered less than an hour after yesterday afternoon's storm front (around 1:30-2pm). Most of the night, the temperature hovered around 10C. And for most of the day it was ranging between 10-15C, and it's still around 14C right now. poke

Since my last post we had further showers come through during the afternoon and well into the evening. The rain contracted to the coastal areas south of Melbourne last night, leaving us with 10.6mm in the 24 hours to 9am.

Showers resumed after 9:30am today, at times heavier than the radar suggested! Virtually no sunshine whatsoever; the whole day it was overcast with very low, fast-moving clouds. The showers appear to have cleared off now, but should resume again tomorrow with the passage of another cold front.

At the last check I had collected a further 8.4mm of rain since 9am. After a ridiculously dry first half of April 2018, the monthly (and event) total now stands at a more reasonable-in-context 19mm. smile

It was less windy than yesterday, with the strongest winds easing long after the heaviest showers had contracted away from our area last night. However the winds still caused the rain to blow at a bit of an angle at times during the day.

Very strange that the winds are westerly; the Dandenong Ranges normally require the winds to be blowing from either the northwest or the southwest for us to receive substantial bay-effect rainfall from Port Phillip. Not that I mind! smile

Plenty of sporadic wind damage about the place, mostly in the form of uprooted or snapped trees or fallen tree limbs, especially while I was down in Dandenong this morning and Ferntree Gully this arvo.

On a plus note, the rain has helped green the place up a bit. And I saw Dandenong Creek up a bit earlier this morning. smile


Further to my post...

The recent prolonged hot, dry spell has put us a little behind schedule in terms of meeting our monthly average low minimum and maximum temperature targets as we transition from summer to winter, although we've managed to meet a few thresholds and even break a few record lows this year so far!

Here's my stats for the January-April period, based on by records mainly from 2012 up until now (April 15th 2018). Note that the asterix indicates where a record has been broken this year:


January
Mean low minimum: 9.8C
Mean low maximum: 21.4C

Low minimum for January 2018: 9.3C (January 14th) *
Low maximum for January 2018: 20.9C (January 30th)

* Previous record low minimum for January: 9.5C (January 22nd 2017)

Record low maximum: 16.6C (January 29th 2016)


February
Mean low minimum: 8.9C
Mean low maximum: 21.2C

Low minimum for February 2018: 8.2C (February 1st) *
Low maximum for February 2018: 22.1C (February 25th)

* Previous record low minimum for February: 8.5C (February 15th, February 20th, and February 21st 2017)

Record low maximum: 19.4C (February 12th, and February 19th 2017)


March
Mean low minimum: 7.8C
Mean low maximum: 18.2C

Low minimum for March 2018: 8.2C (March 26th)
Low maximum for March 2018: 18.8C (March 20th)

Record low minimum: 7.3C (March 31st 2017)
Record low maximum: 15.2C (March 24th 2015)


April
Mean low minimum: 6.2C
Mean low maximum: 15.0C

Low minimum for April 2018: 8.1C (April 7th, & April 15th)
Low maximum for February 2018: 15.4C (April 15th)

Record low minimum: 4.4C (April 20th 2015)
Record low maximum: 13.4C (April 25th 2012)


As a result of this cold spell, Melbourne is forecast to dip to 9C on Wednesday, while Scoresby and Mount Dandenong are expected to drop to 6C and 4C respectively. That should help get us back on track as we continue our "downhill run" towards winter, not-to-mention give the autumn colours a helping hand. I'm predicting a low of around 5C here in Belgrave Wednesday morning! smile

And now, thanks to this cold, wet weather (which I was able to enjoy indoors), I can look forward to the warm weather that's forecast to return to Melbourne from Wednesday until at least the early part of next week! smile

I do share everyone else's sentiments though. We really need a proper autumn break across the whole of Victoria. frown

I'll be watching the models closely, as ACCESS and GFS have several wayfaring lows and troughs towards the latter part of the upcoming 7-10 day period, which may hopefully bring some more useful autumn rain and maybe some thunderstorm action. smile

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#1461862 - 16/04/2018 08:24 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 592
Loc: Corryong
another 5.5mm rain over last 24hours was very light misty rain nearly all day. Now 25.5mm

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#1461878 - 16/04/2018 13:40 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: Alexia]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
Moderator

Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3957
Loc: Bayles / Toorloo Arm
23.7mm between 9am Saturday and 9am this morning at home in Bayles. Pretty happy with that but we need a heap more. We have these cracks in the ground everywhere at home.

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#1461888 - 16/04/2018 17:47 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
.....looks like you've trundled that thing all the way down to Royal Maffra Loo! - not that you'd find any grass to cut.

Very mild morning here (18C at 6am), got to 23C before the midday'ish change. Got 0.5mm this time.

Cold windy 15.5C here now. Baro back up to 1013 hPa, end of this cold change event and back to warm in coming days.

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#1461910 - 16/04/2018 21:31 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6322
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Another 1.1mm since last post so got to 30.4mm
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1461912 - 16/04/2018 23:36 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Reached 20.7C here in Belgrave today. A damp, chilly, mostly cloudy day with a few morning sunny breaks, followed by afternoon showers.

Due to cloudcover (and high humidity) last night, I'm unable to say what today's actual minimum temperature was; the lowest I saw it get down to on my weather station last night was 13.6C.

I collected an additional 1mm of rain, so 20mm for the event and for the month so far. Most of the time the rain was in sprinkling showers or drizzle, but occasionally it was surprisingly heavy.

Plenty of fog/low cloud clinging to the Dandenong Ranges today, especially while I was down in Boronia this arvo. Very little wind thankfully.

At the last check a few hours ago it was still around 13C.

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#1461978 - 17/04/2018 21:07 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
7mm in the gauge, first check of same in ten days, over Maffra today, desert !
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1462024 - 18/04/2018 11:49 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2538
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had first coldest morning almost to be frost of 3.4c at 6.50am...

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#1462074 - 19/04/2018 08:27 Re: VIC - Potentially Major Winter Storm Event... Hopefully! - April 14-18 2018 [Re: aussiestormfreak]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1230
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
I still haven't got my winter veggies in the garden. I don't need frost yet haha
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The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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