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#1446917 - 02/01/2018 18:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7261
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
I read your post Siera, then it magically disappeared - can the rest of us do that?

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#1446918 - 02/01/2018 18:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Petros
I read your post Siera, then it magically disappeared - can the rest of us do that?

When you edit it...
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#1446919 - 02/01/2018 19:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7261
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Ta

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#1446936 - 02/01/2018 19:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2464
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Moisture from the Indian? Ummm no, sorry.

Surface winds - no nw’erly feed there.

Upper levels - defin no moisture there from the west, but I can sure see the moisture being dragged onshore across Northern Aus by humid easterlies and then wrapped around the Hadley cell into the trough over Eastern Aus. Thanks La Niña!

Moderator edit: Photos removed as they are far too large for these forums. Please refer to the guidelines below when posting images, thankyou.
http://forum.weatherzone.com.au/ubbthrea...ages#Post649322


Edited by Helen (02/01/2018 22:46)

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#1446938 - 02/01/2018 19:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7121
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
The only influence the Indian ocean has had here recently is ex. Hilda's rubbish being sheared away to the east in the jetstream. The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.

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#1446948 - 02/01/2018 20:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18460
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Mega
The only influence the Indian ocean has had here recently is ex. Hilda's rubbish being sheared away to the east in the jetstream. The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.


Yep.
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#1446967 - 02/01/2018 20:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2317
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Can you resize the humungous photo's?

Not all of us have 60" screens.

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#1446971 - 02/01/2018 21:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2464
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Tried, IMGUR won’t resize for some reason.

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#1446974 - 02/01/2018 21:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7121
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
I'm sure one of the mods will resize them anyway.

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#1446976 - 02/01/2018 21:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7551
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: Mega
The only influence the Indian ocean has had here recently is ex. Hilda's rubbish being sheared away to the east in the jetstream. The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.

Not quite sure what that's all about. ENSO and MJO were mentioned!
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#1446983 - 02/01/2018 22:02 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2464
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Indian has nothing to do with ENSO, and the MJO is over near Africa, so no influence either.

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#1446998 - 02/01/2018 22:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18460
Loc: Burnett Heads
Originally Posted By: Kino
Indian has nothing to do with ENSO, and the MJO is over near Africa, so no influence either.


Yep, as soon as the blocking ridge pattern that anchored for a few weeks broke down the rain set in. Moisture piling in out of the Coral Sea. Flow from the east is still not as deep as I'd like to see though. Yet.

Models are hinting at a deep easterly fetch longer term. Fingers crossed.

GFS keep the deep easterly flow from day 8 right out to day 16 and beyond. Wouldn't that be good!
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"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1447014 - 03/01/2018 03:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8544
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
Originally Posted By: Mega
The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.


How can you say that with certainty? A cyclone off the NW of Aus can be influenced by high SST's in the tasman sea (which is on the other side of the country). It's to do with energy transference. Bit of research goes a long way.

I continue to agree with Kino. The current massive severe storm outbreak over the east coast is unprecedented in non-La nina seasons. It's pretty clear that she's pumping in ample moisture to create such a volatile environment. Even with weaker shear these storms are wreaking havoc in certain areas and will continue to do so for the remainder of the storm season.

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#1447015 - 03/01/2018 04:23 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Long Road Home]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7121
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Originally Posted By: Mega
The convective energy across QLD atm is a result of warm moist air being pulled down from the NE tropics ahead of this trough - absolutely nothing to do with the Indian Ocean. How anyone can say otherwise is absolutely beyond me.


How can you say that with certainty? A cyclone off the NW of Aus can be influenced by high SST's in the tasman sea (which is on the other side of the country). It's to do with energy transference. Bit of research goes a long way


Alright fine, I can't say it with absolute certainty, but I haven't found any papers to prove / disprove the energy transference theory from the Tasman Sea to the Indian Ocean or vice versa, but since you brought it up then maybe you could link a few?

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#1447031 - 03/01/2018 08:51 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1804
Loc: Kingaroy
Be interesting to see what the BOM say today in the ENSO wrap up and the weekly tropical note.

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#1447033 - 03/01/2018 09:05 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3214
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Because of course, a La Niña is purely judged on whether one gets rain over their particular area.

Meanwhile, a thousand km of the east coast today is under severe storm warnings, with massive hail, damaging winds, tornados and torrential rain falling, but hey, nothing to do with La Niña.


Storms happen in neutral and el nino.

I'm judging this event based on rainfall over the entire Eastern region of Australia, and over multiple months. Seems you want to judge it based on a thousand km (a quarter) of the east coast on one day.

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#1447040 - 03/01/2018 09:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2464
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Because of course, a La Niña is purely judged on whether one gets rain over their particular area.

Meanwhile, a thousand km of the east coast today is under severe storm warnings, with massive hail, damaging winds, tornados and torrential rain falling, but hey, nothing to do with La Niña.


Storms happen in neutral and el nino.

I'm judging this event based on rainfall over the entire Eastern region of Australia, and over multiple months. Seems you want to judge it based on a thousand km (a quarter) of the east coast on one day.


You posted one month rainfall anomalies and I posted 3 month rainfall anomalies.

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#1447041 - 03/01/2018 09:52 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3214
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Despite this some are ignoring the big picture


laugh laugh laugh


So I suppose you think the big picture is the good rainfall in parts of Victoria and NSW last month, or the thousand kilometers of storms yesterday and not the poor rainfall figures for all of Eastern Australia over the last four months.

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#1447043 - 03/01/2018 10:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 665
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Yeah I thought lanina = widespread rain.
Elnino = more storms due to more heat.

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#1447044 - 03/01/2018 10:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Long Road Home]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3214
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
Ext-GFS will make them make up their minds if it comes off, NW all the way to E NSW under water with that prediction laugh


GFS looks generally better for tropical moisture inflow - similar to October when we had the record breaking rains in coastal Qld. From the runs I've seen all E NSW under water seems a bit of a stretch though. Might be different runs to what you saw.

My argument is not that this event can't deliver good rains in the future, although I believe the lack of cooling towards nino 4 makes this less likely. My argument is that what has happened so far does not reflect any general influence in rainfall caused by a La Nina, as rainfall so far overall is below average.

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