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#1451223 - 01/02/2018 22:20 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25337
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
i said a month ago, despite this La Nina being called i couldnt see a shift to wet conditions across eastern Australia, i still cant. Looking like February is being more of the same. One would have hoped the biggest monsoon in 7 years might have been enough to push through (in fact i would probably go as far as seeing this last monsoon should have been enough to push south) but it hasnt. Great January rains for a large part of the Top End, records broken in fact but two things.

Wet Season mean anomalies are still in the negative for big areas of the NT and the Qld tropics despite these rains. Of course those areas south of Cairns are in far worse positions. We are looking at one wet day coming up this Sunday/Monday then that is it for what is looking like a big chunk of February. The chances of a sustained wet period for the areas that are traditionally made wet by La Nina are rapidly diminishing as we move out of summer. Cross fingers March or April delivers.

Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber

So simply pointing out that the prediction of someone you like went wrong is baiting. Whereas the abuse heaped with personal attacks and accusations of agendas and bias on predictions I have made and gone wrong is fair game?


Astonishing isnt it!
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451226 - 01/02/2018 22:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


I read your post as baiting. On all the evidence it should not be so dry in Nth East Queensland through February, so he shouldn't be ridiculed for suggesting it would turn wet.


So simply pointing out that the prediction of someone you like went wrong is baiting. Whereas the abuse heaped with personal attacks and accusations of agendas and bias on predictions I have made and gone wrong is fair game?


He was referring to Kino. It's not that your predictions went wrong. Many others have also. It's how you chose to deal with it . In fact you're still doing it 6 months on.

Someone else suggested that if you keep forecasting warming you will eventually be right but you didn't go all vendetta on their arse. You were called out by several people for it , not just myself and Kino.

I've seen heaps of discussion from many members prepared to accept that there were flaws in certain parts of all models over the years, but not you. EC is always right and the rest are wrong despite it being pointed out to you countless times by other members that it kept reacting to input change throughout last year.

As late as today you were misleading regarding the similarities between two bi- annual maps. It was either intentional to get a rise or beyond foolhardy. Then you did it again with that subsurface claim just as you did with surface temps a couple of months back. Even one of the moderators called you on it, but you didn't then set out to pull everything he posted apart.

I'm not really sure why you do it but the common theme is towards warming all the time so why is it so surprising that some think it is agenda based? Particularly when you suggested that a single WWB was going to wipe out significant surface cooling back in October.

You have simply ploughed through with disregard to all other opinion and presented the very same points and models regarding WWB's and quite frankly, it has been grossly inaccurate.

ENSO forecasting by the models is in its infancy and highly reactive as a result. I'd have thought what transpired through Winter and Spring last year would have highlighted that fact.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451228 - 01/02/2018 22:58 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Mick10
i said a month ago, despite this La Nina being called i couldnt see a shift to wet conditions across eastern Australia, i still cant.


...and that may prove to be the case , however that should not serve as grounds for anyone to imply that because someone said it is often dry in Nth East Queensland in January that they were suggesting it would be wet in February. That would be putting words in someone's mouth.

When I can be bothered I'll put up the decile maps for the past 30 years into decades. It's an eye opener and really slaps down the "average" belief that many seem to hold on to.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451229 - 01/02/2018 23:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 585
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Reading back through last few pages of posts give me impression of too much focus on comparison of La Niña and rainfall. Yes many of us want good rain. The assumption at its simplest form that La Niña means rain is easy to form with the basic messaging been said by science but making it too basic leads to unrealistic expectations.
I agree we are / have been in Niña type conditions but the more modern definition for persist for three months is still to be confirmed or may potentially end up as an event that did not officially complete the definition. Does not really matter as binary thinking of Niña or not will fail us. Can be said the recent Niña type conditions are weak. Can also be said no way to prove rain we have seen is Niña proof or just part of rain variations we see in areas that have typically but not always get wetter conditions at this time of year irrespective of Niña, neutral, or Nino.
I have in earlier posts in 2017 thread on this topic said the 1918 season is an example of Niña not producing rain in areas South of central Qld. Reason why I use that example is that by the SOI measure 1918 was a quite strong Niña.
In my mind La Niña means SOME areas will have chance of higher rainfall, and it may just be elevated seasonal rain rather than floods. That means some areas may miss out, AND sometimes those chances won't come true.
Summarise this as be careful of what you expect. Not always true that Niña = rain.


Edited by Flowin (01/02/2018 23:05)
Edit Reason: Typos

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#1451231 - 01/02/2018 23:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Reading back through last few pages of posts give me impression of too much focus on comparison of La Niña and rainfall. Yes many of us want good rain. The assumption at its simplest form that La Niña means rain is easy to form with the basic messaging been said by science but making it too basic leads to unrealistic expectations.
I agree we are / have been in Niña type conditions but the more modern definition for persist for three months is still to be confirmed or may potentially end up as an event that did not officially complete the definition. Does not really matter as binary thinking of Niña or not will fail us. Can be said the recent Niña type conditions are weak. Can also be said no way to prove rain we have seen is Niña proof or just part of rain variations we see in areas that get wetter conditions at this time of year irrespective of Niña, neutral, or Nino.
I have in earlier posts in 2017 thread on this topic said the 1918 season is an example of Niña not producing rain in areas South of central Qld. Reason why I use that example is that but the SOI measure 1918 was a quite strong Niña.
In my mind La Niña means SOME areas will have chance of higher rainfall, and it may just be elevated seasonal rain rather than floods. That mean some areas may miss out, AND sometimes those chances won't come true.
Summarise this as be careful of what you expect. Not always true that Niña = rain.


Yep, what he said.

Some people seem to admonish this Nina when looking at the smoothed effects of 12 events whilst completely ignoring the fact that there are 3 strong events in those decile maps.

It is weak, its effects will not be widespread, just as BoM have previously stated ,however to totally dismiss it as coincidence that some areas had their wettest October on record is ridiculous. I might buy into it if it was Cairns in February, but not Bundaberg in October.

Expectation often exceeds reality, especially when the chips are down like they are in parts of North Queensland.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451234 - 01/02/2018 23:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 670
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: Mick10
i said a month ago, despite this La Nina being called i couldnt see a shift to wet conditions across eastern Australia, i still cant.


...and that may prove to be the case , however that should not serve as grounds for anyone to imply that because someone said it is often dry in Nth East Queensland in January that they were suggesting it would be wet in February. That would be putting words in someone's mouth.

When I can be bothered I'll put up the decile maps for the past 30 years into decades. It's an eye opener and really slaps down the "average" belief that many seem to hold on to.


Seems like you can bothered to endlessly run your mouth replying to any comment you disagree with so how about you posts these maps and provide some bloody substance for once.

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#1451237 - 01/02/2018 23:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: gazzatsv]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: gazzatsv


Seems like you can bothered to endlessly run your mouth replying to any comment you disagree with so how about you posts these maps and provide some bloody substance for once.


laugh Glass houses.

Here's the 1980's. I'll do the rest when I feel like it.



Above average falls in January in just one of those years for Townsville. You can and check out what happened in February for yourself wink

For the record January 1983 the country was in the grips of one of the strongest El Nino's on record. Notice where it didn't impact?
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451238 - 01/02/2018 23:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 585
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Says a lot CF and not just that year by year variation is swings and roundabouts. But also individual months sometimes don't align to season and year. I remember quite wet periods in 83, 88, 89 in other months of year, and dry in much of 82 ( for SEQ)


Edited by Flowin (01/02/2018 23:39)
Edit Reason: Typo

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#1451240 - 01/02/2018 23:44 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Says a lot CF and not just that year by year variation is swings and roundabouts. But also individual months sometimes don't align to season and year. I remember quite wet periods in 83, 88, 89 in other months of year, and dry in much of 82 ( for SEQ)


Thanks Flowin , especially for seeing what is right under everyone else's nose. Using January as a guide to what will happen in February is ludicrous but that seems to occur commonly, and particularly in one pocket of North Queensland.

February 1983 was horrendous in most of Qld including Townsville ,yet February 1988 was above average up there. February 1984 was well below average. Go figure !!

I will do the 90's and 00's at some point down the track. Using "averages" as an expectation is utter madness but it's a trap many fall into and I stand by what I said about that neck of the woods being one of the worst places to quote averages.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451241 - 01/02/2018 23:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Wet Season mean anomalies are still in the negative for big areas of the NT and the Qld tropics despite these rains.


Please point them out....I only see about maybe 20% being in the negative....


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#1451242 - 01/02/2018 23:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: ColdFront
Originally Posted By: gazzatsv


Seems like you can bothered to endlessly run your mouth replying to any comment you disagree with so how about you posts these maps and provide some bloody substance for once.


laugh Glass houses.

Here's the 1980's. I'll do the rest when I feel like it.



Above average falls in January in just one of those years for Townsville. You can and check out what happened in February for yourself wink

For the record January 1983 the country was in the grips of one of the strongest El Nino's on record. Notice where it didn't impact?


Looks like BIG FAT FACTS to me - great post!

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#1451243 - 01/02/2018 23:55 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
...and the 80's is generous.

Much of inland Qld is reliant on those events like can be seen in 1981 and 1984 to blow their average out Kino as I am sure you already know.

How many "above average" Februarys do you see in the Townsville region in the 1980's?

Some people focus too much on just one avenue or moment in time.
_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451246 - 02/02/2018 00:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Wait wasn’t 1988/89 a big La Niña - yet QLD didn’t do that well at all? It actually looks wetter this time around...so there seems to be a pattern developing here.

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#1451249 - 02/02/2018 00:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 585
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Kino 1988 and 1989 don't show remarkable rain on maps CF posted which were only for January. That was the key point that was just January only. In south east Qld 88 and 89 were quite wet in March-April.
Some months wet, some months dry, same happens in Niña and Nino years, and trends not regionally uniform

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#1451250 - 02/02/2018 01:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18728
Loc: The Beach.
Originally Posted By: Kino
Wait wasn’t 1988/89 a big La Niña -


Yes it was. Here is the complete list until 2016

_________________________
"water has c.30x the heat capacity of air. Someone drop the penny please for those fixated on the notion that the atmosphere is the driver ( preferably in 3D)".

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#1451251 - 02/02/2018 01:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mick10 Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 02/11/2001
Posts: 25337
Loc: Kirwan, Townsville - NQld.
Originally Posted By: Kino


Please point them out....I only see about maybe 20% being in the negative....


As I said in my post, the wet season anomalies are still in the negative for large areas -
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...ws&area=nat

the percentages are also below the mean for the same period
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...ws&area=nat
_________________________
Kirwan, Townsville Nth Qld -
November 2018 total - 25.0mm (58mm)
December 2018 total - 107.4mm (125mm)
2018 Yearly total to date - 984.8mm (1107mm)

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#1451253 - 02/02/2018 07:03 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3449
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: ColdFront


He was referring to Kino. It's not that your predictions went wrong. Many others have also. It's how you chose to deal with it . In fact you're still doing it 6 months on.


That is not an excuse for the number of personal attacks and insults you direct at me. Most other members of this forum are decent enough to disagree with me without the abuse. This forum would be a much nicer place if you did the same.

And your regular distortions of what I say:

Quote:
I've seen heaps of discussion from many members prepared to accept that there were flaws in certain parts of all models over the years, but not you. EC is always right and the rest are wrong despite it being pointed out to you countless times by other members that it kept reacting to input change throughout last year.


I accept there are flaws. How could I not when I've been arguing for more warming than the models have been predicting? EC is not always right, and the rest are not always wrong. However EC has the best verification stats according to the latest research I have seen (which is 5 years old so if anyone knows of anything more recent..)

edit: and as for the way I deal with it: I actually admit I made a mistake. You might not like that I try and minimise it when I can, and to point to things that I did say that were right. But at least I don't accuse the person who pointed out I was wrong of being a troll.


Edited by Mike Hauber (02/02/2018 07:07)

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#1451255 - 02/02/2018 07:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
gazzatsv Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 19/03/2011
Posts: 670
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino


Please point them out....I only see about maybe 20% being in the negative....


As I said in my post, the wet season anomalies are still in the negative for large areas -
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cnws&area=nat

the percentages are also below the mean for the same period
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cnws&area=nat


Funny how it’s the tiniest area around Bundaberg being the only place over eastern and most of northern aus being above average. But yeah this La Niña certainly has been delivering the goods. And CF tries to tell people to look outside of their backyards 😂🤷‍♂️.

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#1451256 - 02/02/2018 08:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2842
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino


Please point them out....I only see about maybe 20% being in the negative....


As I said in my post, the wet season anomalies are still in the negative for large areas -
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cnws&area=nat

the percentages are also below the mean for the same period
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cnws&area=nat


Those maps clearly have to be wrong as you can’t have the highest rainfall on one hand yet still have significant anomalies - I would say they are yearly deficits carried forward and not wet season anomalies. They simply can’t be wet season only.

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#1451257 - 02/02/2018 08:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mick10]
Pete R Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/02/2002
Posts: 56
Loc: Mendooran
Originally Posted By: Mick10
Originally Posted By: Kino


Please point them out....I only see about maybe 20% being in the negative....


As I said in my post, the wet season anomalies are still in the negative for large areas -
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cnws&area=nat

the percentages are also below the mean for the same period
http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/rain/inde...d=cnws&area=nat


The rainfall deciles for the same period paint a different picture. Is that just a result of the difference between mean and median? or is something else funky with the maps?

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