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#1461208 - 08/04/2018 14:37 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14896
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
I wouldn't be calling for a positive IOD this year, looking like a nice negative one. Slow start to the break season but should break hard and be a decent growing season into the middle and back half of winter/early spring.

TS cool

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#1461215 - 08/04/2018 17:32 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: _Johnno_]
Cutofflow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2009
Posts: 98
Loc: North Central. VIC
Originally Posted By: _Johnno_
Those ssts look incredibly juicy now north west of Australia.. The best in 2 years easily. Something will have to give in the next few weeks.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?c=ssta
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
I wouldn't be calling for a positive IOD this year, looking like a nice negative one. Slow start to the break season but should break hard and be a decent growing season into the middle and back half of winter/early spring.

TS cool


John, those ssta charts - particularly unisys and weatherzone's NOAA - use a different baseline and noise parameters and routinely display inconsistent anomalies.

The IOD is based off the West Sumatran Coastline not NW Aus, that's more of a function of what's been happening with the ENSO over the last few months.

Once this persistent subtropical ridge and associated cold pool in the central Indian ocean (that has kept Perth cold all summer long) moves north those NW anomalies around Java will not be that good. This coincides with a dying la-nina condition and stronger SE winds along the Javan coast and increased latent heat.



The persistent warm water off East Africa will need to cool throughout the next three months for a -IOD to occur this year. This index has been trending warmer and warmer ever since the AMO went positive in the late 90s. The two indices are linked together - or are proxies for whatever is driving them - which in turn is why we have only seen 2-3 decent -IOD occurrences in the last two decades. I can not see this pattern reversing this year but happy to be proven wrong.


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#1461219 - 08/04/2018 19:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2021
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Why would anyone base a seasonal outlook on a daily NOAA Coral Watch SST anomaly chart? Beggars belief.

SAM has gone moderately - strongly negative. Combine this with a negative IOD and you’d think we should see a bumper winter wet season with plenty of nw cloud bands and cut off polar lows.

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#1461245 - 09/04/2018 10:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1786
Loc: Kingaroy
A -IOD and a negative SAM are good but we need local weather patterns to play the game. 2016 was a good example of favorable climatic drivers but unfavorable local weather patterns.

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#1461249 - 09/04/2018 10:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
We definitely are not in a -ve IOD at the moment, with the latest weekly index value +ve at 0.23



Two out of six models show a -ve IOD devloping during winter. Both these models are also forecasting ENSO to stay somewhat on the cool side of neutral for the next few months, which looks unlikely to me at the moment. In my opinion the best method for forecasting IOD is to expect it to follow ENSO, which is clearly going in a warm direction at the moment.

SAM generally has no forecast value beyond a few weeks.

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#1461259 - 09/04/2018 12:18 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2021
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not sure anyone has said we are in a -IOD at the moment. All the talk has been about the outlook for later. And ENSO outlooks are still uncertain IMO - CFS has La Nina; cool-neutral and warm-neutral in it's outlooks.

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#1461265 - 09/04/2018 13:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
And ENSO outlooks are still uncertain IMO - CFS has La Nina; cool-neutral and warm-neutral in it's outlooks.


Why would you exclude el nino, and include La Nina when the CFS outlooks is quite clearly favouring the warm side over the cool side in its outlook?



CFS has been mostly forecasting cooler than observed since a major error correction in 2016, and has been near the coolest of the model forecasts of late. Just recently it made a big jump towards the warm side. Coming into line with the rest of the models? Or is the effect of the recent strong Kelvin wave now being picked up by CFS, and will be picked up by the other models updating on a monthly basis in their next update?

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#1461268 - 09/04/2018 13:34 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2021
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Because, as usual only show one model that leans towards warming.

The other 2 show:





So out of 3; 2 prefer cooler conditions.

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#1461271 - 09/04/2018 13:54 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
No idea which way she'll swing this year, far too early to tell imo.

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#1461295 - 09/04/2018 16:46 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Because, as usual only show one model that leans towards warming.



So out of 3; 2 prefer cooler conditions.


I showed the latest one. You showed the out of date model runs from last month.

And all other models such as EC, JMA etc show warming.

You are showing the only major model which does not show substantial warming, and which is also out of date.

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#1461310 - 09/04/2018 18:19 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Cutofflow Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2009
Posts: 98
Loc: North Central. VIC
Originally Posted By: Kino
Why would anyone base a seasonal outlook on a daily NOAA Coral Watch SST anomaly chart? Beggars belief.

SAM has gone moderately - strongly negative. Combine this with a negative IOD and you’d think we should see a bumper winter wet season with plenty of nw cloud bands and cut off polar lows.


Kino,

Makes no difference if you use the 30 day SSTA animations. My advice is to read some papers on the IOD phenomenon to see why the status of the current SST's are important. May/June SSTA in the southeastern IO are highly correlated (>0.7) with September/October SSTA. So an understanding of the evolution of May/June SSTA is a key for predicting further evolution of IOD events.

Rapid warming of water off the East African coast. Warm water in the Western Pacific going backwards. Upper ocean heat content across the equator now warmer than normal heading toward El-Nino condition. All these indicators generally lead to cooler water appearing off the Sumatran coastline, not -IOD.

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#1461324 - 09/04/2018 19:50 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Because, as usual only show one model that leans towards warming.



So out of 3; 2 prefer cooler conditions.


I showed the latest one. You showed the out of date model runs from last month.

And all other models such as EC, JMA etc show warming.

You are showing the only major model which does not show substantial warming, and which is also out of date.


From what I can recall it was the same story this time last year, Warming with an expected El Nino prognosticated all round by nearly all Models... Until it wasn't.
Except for you Mike, I can't recall a circumstance where you didn't think warming was imminent no matter what day of the week it was over the last year, even when there was no warming apparent.
That aside even where there is any Warming found, the anomaly's are well within either the historical +/- margins of error or the natural climate variations to be expected.
I mean really, measuring to 100th's of a Deg C for the entire planet is akin to a 13 year old Girls daydream of Brad Pitt picking her up after School for a visit to the local Icecream shop.

Sure it could happen, but.....You Know.

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#1461334 - 09/04/2018 23:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Cutofflow]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2021
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Cutofflow
Originally Posted By: Kino
Why would anyone base a seasonal outlook on a daily NOAA Coral Watch SST anomaly chart? Beggars belief.

SAM has gone moderately - strongly negative. Combine this with a negative IOD and you’d think we should see a bumper winter wet season with plenty of nw cloud bands and cut off polar lows.


Kino,

Makes no difference if you use the 30 day SSTA animations. My advice is to read some papers on the IOD phenomenon to see why the status of the current SST's are important. May/June SSTA in the southeastern IO are highly correlated (>0.7) with September/October SSTA. So an understanding of the evolution of May/June SSTA is a key for predicting further evolution of IOD events.

Rapid warming of water off the East African coast. Warm water in the Western Pacific going backwards. Upper ocean heat content across the equator now warmer than normal heading toward El-Nino condition. All these indicators generally lead to cooler water appearing off the Sumatran coastline, not -IOD.




I’m pretty sure your “papers” would shy away from making bold climate statements on a daily SST anomaly chart....even Mike wouldn’t try that.

As for “rapid warming” off the East African coast, are your referring to that huge patch of purple? 😂😂😂

And we’re no where even close to an El Niño.

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#1461336 - 09/04/2018 23:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
marakai Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/01/2006
Posts: 1829
Loc: Maryfarms NQ
Mike, Kino, Cuttoff, Et al.

Do you think these measurements are mere observations, or actual drivers of the Climate ?

As a Layman, for years now I have seen these numbers thrown back and forth with no real forward predictive skill apparent at all with any of them until actual change is imminent or actually happening.

Iv'e said it before and will say again now, are the models used predictive or reactive ?

If the Later, then what is the point of them apart from fine skilling their hindcasting responses ?

Again as a Layman, it would seem that even the most finely tuned Models are unable to accurately have any predictive skill even three months out in any real sense apart from some broad climate indicators that may or may not change as more information in real time comes to hand (IE:Observations).

If it were private company finances, public superannuation,or fiscal forecasts for a state or country that were the subject at hand and based on the track record so far.... would such modelers still be employed ?

Edited to Add: And why ? given the recent track record alone over the last decade should we orientate the financial policy of our country based upon such forecast's that reach out to one hundred years hence when just a year or two seem's so troublesome ?


Edited by marakai (09/04/2018 23:47)

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#1461340 - 10/04/2018 00:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2021
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Agree Marakai. No doubt ENSO models are probably the most unreliable, erratic and reactive of the whole climate array.

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#1461345 - 10/04/2018 07:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: marakai]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: marakai
Mike, Kino, Cuttoff, Et al.

Do you think these measurements are mere observations, or actual drivers of the Climate ?

As a Layman, for years now I have seen these numbers thrown back and forth with no real forward predictive skill apparent at all with any of them until actual change is imminent or actually happening.

Iv'e said it before and will say again now, are the models used predictive or reactive ?

If the Later, then what is the point of them apart from fine skilling their hindcasting responses ?

Again as a Layman, it would seem that even the most finely tuned Models are unable to accurately have any predictive skill even three months out in any real sense apart from some broad climate indicators that may or may not change as more information in real time comes to hand (IE:Observations).

If it were private company finances, public superannuation,or fiscal forecasts for a state or country that were the subject at hand and based on the track record so far.... would such modelers still be employed ?

Edited to Add: And why ? given the recent track record alone over the last decade should we orientate the financial policy of our country based upon such forecast's that reach out to one hundred years hence when just a year or two seem's so troublesome ?


ENSO had demonstrated forecast skill, and ENSO forecasts can be applied in a commercial decision making framework for advantage.

This paper has a very interesting observation. Farmers who expect the ENSO forecast to be perfect, and consider only the average of the ENSO forecast range will tend to lose money attempting to act on ENSO forecasts. Farmers who understand that ENSO forecasts are for a range of values and take this into account in their decision making make money.

Forecasting in the business environment runs into the same issues as forecasting in climate and weather with many managers deciding what they want to be true for whatever reason, and then ignoring data to the contrary, citing past imperfections in data as reason to ignore what the data says today.

As an example I used to work in data analysis for the railway, in freight. I analysed a large amount of train running data and used this to make hindcats of train running times for the next three months. These hindcasts were demonstrably far more accurate than the existing schedules, and if used as schedule data would have had clear business benefits, such as reducing the cost of sending a driver to work on a train hours before it gets there. But the managers didn't want to know.

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#1461346 - 10/04/2018 07:35 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Kino
Agree Marakai. No doubt ENSO models are probably the most unreliable, erratic and reactive of the whole climate array.


I bet you can't name one climate driver with a more useful forecasting track record than ENSO.

Other than the standard change of seasons from summer to winter.

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#1461351 - 10/04/2018 09:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
There's one regression in a model I like not to see - the regression to a model of negativity which got us all into some troublesome weather

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#1461397 - 10/04/2018 18:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
RC Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/09/2007
Posts: 2254
Loc: near Rockhampton, Qld
Certainly looking at the charts would make one start thinking an El Nino is brewing. I still think we are under the spell of something much bigger though.

I am preparing for another drought year.

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#1461412 - 11/04/2018 00:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14896
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
The AMO controls the lot, and since about 94 or so it has been in a warm phase and hence no surprise we are seeing many more warm records in both the air and the sea in such a time, and indeed reduces the number of negative IOD's but does not remove them completely.

POAMA would be the best index for forecasting the IOD in my eyes, and it's keen on a moderate one, I'm not expecting a 2016, that was one of the stronger events in the last 50 years if not the strongest where most of the Indian was very, very warm, but at least a weak to possibly moderate -ve IOD. Warm water will make it's way into the Indian from the east and the Indonesian Throughflow current, the process has already begun but of course we don't really care about the IOD atm because it's still far too early. July, August, September and maybe October are the three months I'll be keeping a close eye on for rainfall in Adelaide at least.

TS cool

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