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#1462493 - 24/04/2018 22:01 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD

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#1462551 - 25/04/2018 21:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
S .O. Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 1540
Loc: Southern Victoria
Two things about this post i find interesting .

Firstly the WWB's are not eastward propogating and more so retrograding . Plus the with the first it is being counteracted by even stronger trades to its East.

The other is the second week is just that too far out to be taken seriously , ontop of it looking weaker . The other is this frist upwelling has mixed well west of the Galapagas , and there is still strong cool upwelling along the Peruvian coast . Which for now should re sustain the cooler transportaion to the west .
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#1462853 - 30/04/2018 18:48 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6922
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
For SE Victoria, I heard a BOM climatologist predict average rains for mid May into late winter 'ish.

After 5mm here for April, most of my "oldie" friends are predicting the next "rain", when it does eventually come, will leave us swimming in Gippsland.

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#1462855 - 30/04/2018 19:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 432
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
most of my "oldie" friends are predicting the next "rain", when it does eventually come, will leave us swimming in Gippsland.

SAM (more broadly labelled AAO) may support that: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

Otherwise what else is giving an indication of a possible " swimming" time ahead?


Edited by Flowin (30/04/2018 19:13)
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#1462867 - 30/04/2018 21:14 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 432
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Seira
The words "Climate Driver," from my perspective, would imply, over a period of time, any mechanism driving, or transition between, phases of some feature [or more than one] in the atmosphere which means it is a very broad topic, and, in all fairness, would not exclude insight into anything that would improve our understanding of the real workings of the natural environment around us smile .

Another way to look at drivers of climate is to eliminate what is thought to be drivers and postulate the climate response. In that context surely solar activity has to be prime driver bar nothing else being a "stronger influence" then closely followed by the ways that heat is held and distributed in air water and land?
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Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1462878 - 01/05/2018 07:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6922
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Petros
most of my "oldie" friends are predicting the next "rain", when it does eventually come, will leave us swimming in Gippsland.

SAM (more broadly labelled AAO) may support that: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

Otherwise what else is giving an indication of a possible " swimming" time ahead?


Just living memory!

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#1462879 - 01/05/2018 07:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4500
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Seira
The words "Climate Driver," from my perspective, would imply, over a period of time, any mechanism driving, or transition between, phases of some feature [or more than one] in the atmosphere which means it is a very broad topic, and, in all fairness, would not exclude insight into anything that would improve our understanding of the real workings of the natural environment around us smile .

Another way to look at drivers of climate is to eliminate what is thought to be drivers and postulate the climate response. In that context surely solar activity has to be prime driver bar nothing else being a "stronger influence" then closely followed by the ways that heat is held and distributed in air water and land?


Just what I have been saying for decades, but have been by far in the minority with these views.


Edited by retired weather man (01/05/2018 08:01)
Edit Reason: addition.
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#1462882 - 01/05/2018 08:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2021
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Seira
The words "Climate Driver," from my perspective, would imply, over a period of time, any mechanism driving, or transition between, phases of some feature [or more than one] in the atmosphere which means it is a very broad topic, and, in all fairness, would not exclude insight into anything that would improve our understanding of the real workings of the natural environment around us smile .

Another way to look at drivers of climate is to eliminate what is thought to be drivers and postulate the climate response. In that context surely solar activity has to be prime driver bar nothing else being a "stronger influence" then closely followed by the ways that heat is held and distributed in air water and land?


This! 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻

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#1462898 - 01/05/2018 11:21 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
Isn't the primary function of this thread to discuss short term impacts of climate drivers such as ENSO, MJO, SOI and IOD (to name a few) and their forecasting.

I would be concerned that to stray from this is to invite this thread to be closed and personally I enjoy discussing the short term impacts of these events and the forecasts surrounding them.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1462926 - 01/05/2018 17:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 432
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
My apologies Locke. I was not aware of the narrower focus on short term. Perhaps the title of the thread should be "Short term climate drivers"..... If that is the intent.
That said I think part of my post regarding "ways that heat is distributed" is still relevant for short term.
Likewise I would not like to see the thread closed. But if my understanding is correct the previous thread that was closed was not due to the discussion topic being about long term drivers or influences, but more so on reasoning of lack of courtesy (to put it lightly) from a minority of posters who ruined it for all.
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#1462929 - 01/05/2018 19:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Locke]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7421
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: Locke
Isn't the primary function of this thread to discuss short term impacts of climate drivers such as ENSO, MJO, SOI and IOD (to name a few) and their forecasting.

One thing is certain, this thread will eventually become out-of-date without a name change.

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#1462934 - 01/05/2018 21:45 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: Flowin

That said I think part of my post regarding "ways that heat is distributed" is still relevant for short term.

I think you are right - if you mean the heat budget is the foundation block on which climate is built.

You probably know that the earth is presently entering a period when if is expected to enter a grand minimum in solar flux(I think it's about 30 years time). That might be too vast a cycle for anyone to relate to climate driving in the short term.

Labitzke and Van loon(amongst others) have done a lot of work on the lesser 11 year solar cycle producing a signal in seasonal atmospherics - when data is stratified according to QBO phase.

Its far too much for me to summarise(and to be honest I probably couldn't) - if you put those names into a google search you'll find it.

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#1462957 - 02/05/2018 11:57 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1551
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
The warm water in the pacific subsurface isnt really pushing to the surface. Will it have to surface? or could it potentially be dissolved away?
Also looks like a bit of IOD modoki type setup. Whats the thoughts on this being good or bad for late winter/spring rainfall? Pacific modokis dont seem to be too favourable...

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#1463094 - 04/05/2018 11:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Wet season is now over, with the final result being 35mm below average for Eastern Australia, October 2017 to April 2018. Below average, but still close enough to be considered 'normal'.

For Australia as a whole the wet season managed 21mm above average. Average is calculated on 1960-1990, and if the average was calculated for the last 30 years, then Australia as a whole would have been 19mm below average.

As I said early in the wet season the cool water needs to come further west for a significant impact on Australia's rainfall.


For Current conditions, the surface is steadily warming, but winds have been mostly normal or even a bit easterly of normal for most of the central and east Pacific, which is opposing the surface warming, while westerlies continue to dominate the far west and feed the subsurface warming.



It is interesting to look at the slice 5 N of the equator. A very warm North Pacific Meridional Mode is pushing a lot of warmth and westerly activity into this area.



In contrast at 5 S of the equator the South Pacific Meridional Mode is still keeping things cool. The SST pattern (which extends much further south than 5S) has weakened, but the easterlies are if anything stronger over the last couple months.


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#1463219 - 06/05/2018 12:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6922
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
1960-1990 - sounds familiar to a certain solar cycle?

Mike notes that "if last 30 years were used for calculating rain averages".......... invites the counter of "if 1930 to 1960 were to be used for rainfall average" et al.

Periods deliberately selected and labelled as "average" lacks scientific credibility for me.

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#1463229 - 06/05/2018 16:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7421
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
I'm done with BS talk in this and similar threads...either be reasonable about things and invite discussion, or lose it!


Edited by Seira (06/05/2018 16:42)

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#1463232 - 06/05/2018 17:11 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2021
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Seira
I'm done with BS talk in this and similar threads...either be reasonable about things and invite discussion, or lose it!


Since when are you the arbiter? Arenít you the one always demanding scientific analysis? What Petros said is 100% scientific - cherry picking isnít scientific.

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#1463246 - 06/05/2018 18:33 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Petros]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 432
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Petros
1960-1990 - sounds familiar to a certain solar cycle?

Mike notes that "if last 30 years were used for calculating rain averages".......... invites the counter of "if 1930 to 1960 were to be used for rainfall average" et al.

Periods deliberately selected and labelled as "average" lacks scientific credibility for me.

Solar cycle = 30 years is somewhat circumspect? I think Mike was just quoting a commonly used climatology period.

An earlier 30 years, or later 30 years, may show different but what makes us confident we know the period of cycles anyway. Periods of different indicators will vary, and different indicators are not all drivers. Some indicators are responders rather than drivers.
If we go back to short term as I now understand is more the focus of this thread, around average, whatever that means is what appears to have occurred for rain with some areas and times below and some above, average but nothing remarkable either way. And even if not remarkable it is still something that helps our knowledge.
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#1463249 - 06/05/2018 18:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Flowin]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6922
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: Flowin
Originally Posted By: Petros
1960-1990 - sounds familiar to a certain solar cycle?

Mike notes that "if last 30 years were used for calculating rain averages".......... invites the counter of "if 1930 to 1960 were to be used for rainfall average" et al.

Periods deliberately selected and labelled as "average" lacks scientific credibility for me.

Solar cycle = 30 years is somewhat circumspect? I think Mike was just quoting a commonly used climatology period.

An earlier 30 years, or later 30 years, may show different but what makes us confident we know the period of cycles anyway. Periods of different indicators will vary, and different indicators are not all drivers. Some indicators are responders rather than drivers.
If we go back to short term as I now understand is more the focus of this thread, around average, whatever that means is what appears to have occurred for rain with some areas and times below and some above, average but nothing remarkable either way. And even if not remarkable it is still something that helps our knowledge.


Thanks Flowin, keen to see why you think 1960-90 is a relevant rainfall period to draw a future reference to?

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#1463251 - 06/05/2018 18:47 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
Its a simple scientific fact that the rainfall for the recent wet season was below the average for the last 30 years.

There is nothing to stop someone from comparing the wet season to the average from 1930 to 1960 (which was drier so the recent season would be wetter than that average). But I'm not sure what relevance that comparison would have to anything.

Its not cherry picking to pick the last 30 years if the period 1930 to 1960 gives a different answer. Cherry picking applies if a similar period gives a different result. But picking the last 25 years, or the last 35 years. Or 30 years to 5 years ago or whatever is going to give almost the same result.

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