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#1446763 - 01/01/2018 22:48 SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10370
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
New Year. New thread for day-to-day weather. smile

Welcome to 2018's Day-to-day weather thread.

By the way, the 2017 Day-to-day thread's 138 pages was a record high amount of pages for day-to-day weather discussion, beating the previous record of 123 pages of day-to-day discussion back in 2011.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
July 2018 Rainfall: 85.0mm (July Avg. 76.0mm) // July 2018 Raindays: 4 (July Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 982.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1015.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 77 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.5 raindays)

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#1446883 - 02/01/2018 17:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
vjknight Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2012
Posts: 193
Loc: AscotVale, Inner NW Melb
Anyone able to provide a medium range forecast for Gold Coast - January 4 to 15. Daughter is visiting and one thing that terrifies her is loud thunder. We get very little down our way (except for last few weeks)

thanks in advance.

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#1446997 - 02/01/2018 22:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3148
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Fine and storm free smile

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#1447003 - 02/01/2018 23:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2096
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: Steve O
Fine and storm free smile


Looks that way for the next two weeks maybe even longer, except for a possible storm outbreak in NE NSW (only) next week.

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#1447147 - 03/01/2018 17:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 976
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Wow, I picked a good time to head to NZ then. Looks to be quite hot in Warwick also in a few days. Looking forward to the cooler temps. Take care everyone and see you in a couple of weeks.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1447200 - 03/01/2018 22:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 244
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Yo blokes (and ladies), happy new year.
Seabreeze, that record you mention can only mean 1 thing, we waffle heaps. Luv it.
Keep it up all, really love comin here to get my weather fix and info. (list is way to long to mention but you know who you are)
I thank you all for your time, pics and input. Now back to my strong silent side.
Later


Edited by DDstorm (03/01/2018 22:54)
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1447664 - 06/01/2018 20:15 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I did about 8 hours painting today - was good weather for it.
More of same tomorrow- weather and painting 🙃
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1447834 - 07/01/2018 16:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 360
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
What's the next event on the horizon? Looks to be pretty stable this week based on BOM forecast.
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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#1447868 - 07/01/2018 17:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: CirrusFibratus]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2096
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Originally Posted By: CirrusFibratus
What's the next event on the horizon? Looks to be pretty stable this week based on BOM forecast.


Next Saturday, but still looks very patchy.

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#1447948 - 08/01/2018 10:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Ok, I am so over the Quidge. Been there pretty much consistently since the beginning of (was it October or November - feels like longer either way?) Looking @ the extended charts it looks like more of the same. Appreciate we get the odd break and bit of fun coming through, but far out, if this is what a moderate La Nina can do I'd rather not see it. Just keep on watching those charts and waiting for change...best chance I can see is some significant event Feb or March as the Coral and Tasman continue to warm up with the monsoon missing in action off the east coast...

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#1447953 - 08/01/2018 12:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3124
Loc: Buderim
La Nina causes lower SLPs in coastal Qld and western Coral Sea and not ridging.

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#1447967 - 08/01/2018 15:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5215
Next weekend is still looking a bit interesting - most models are still trying to bring a coastal change up the coast with decent instability ahead of it.
The finer details of what could complicate it (e.g. moisture, capping, timing, cloud cover, etc) should hopefully become more apparent in the coming days.

Some southern & western parts of our region could get some activity in the days before then as well.



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#1448008 - 08/01/2018 18:51 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: KevD]
Chris Stumer Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 28/01/2010
Posts: 1790
Loc: Kingaroy
Every La Nina is different and has different effects. The Coral Sea is like a pressure cooker, sooner or later it will pop in a big way.

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#1448013 - 08/01/2018 19:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Looking at BOMs SST's off the coast N of Fraser, its primed all right! Even off Bris its warm enough to support anything coming down. That GOC though, wow, thats ticking!

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#1448018 - 08/01/2018 20:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4584
Loc: Wynnum
Just need a trigger for the Coral Sea. But with the 30-40knot NE flow normally through the South China Sea which is needed to push the MT over NE OZ and the Coral Sea - still largely heading back into the Asian Continent due to a series of circulations above the Equator, we here in the East will be waiting a while yet.

The NW of OZ is seeing what I call a " back door " monsoon flow, via India wrapping around these same NH lows.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul17.6(56.1),YTD661.8(757.2)

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#1448020 - 08/01/2018 20:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10370
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thunderdays & Thunderstorm hits yearly totals over the past five calendar years at South West Rocks:
2017 - 56 thunderdays & 44 thunderstorm hits
2016 - 45 thunderdays & 31 thunderstorm hits
2015 - 64 thunderdays & 47 thunderstorm hits
2014 - 50 thunderdays & 40 thunderstorm hits
2013 - 43 thunderdays & 30 thunderstorm hits

Months ranked from most stormy to least stormy:
December
November
October
January
February
April
March
September
June
August
May
July

Splitting hairs between December and November, they're basically equal stormiest. November is the little more consistent of the two from year-to-year though. July is the least stormiest month by a country mile, no other month even comes remotely close to it.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
July 2018 Rainfall: 85.0mm (July Avg. 76.0mm) // July 2018 Raindays: 4 (July Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 982.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1015.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 77 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.5 raindays)

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#1448025 - 08/01/2018 22:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Seems that either the frequency of thunderdays has increased over the past 10 or so years Seabreeze and maybe the BOM need to think about compiling a new thunderday map for Australia, given that the one displayed on their website is for the years 1990 - 1999. What we see on that map for that period of time is a thunderday frequency of about 30 - 40 per year on average.

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#1448027 - 08/01/2018 22:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 745
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Meant to say specifically that those numbers were for your area around South west Rocks and the Coffs coast

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#1448035 - 08/01/2018 23:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10370
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Yeah it would seem the 1990-1999 period during which the BOM thunderdays map covers was less storm active than recent years (at least around this area).
1990-1999 avg. 35-40 t'days annually (approximated from map)
versus
2013-2017 avg. 51.6 t'days annually
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
July 2018 Rainfall: 85.0mm (July Avg. 76.0mm) // July 2018 Raindays: 4 (July Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 982.4mm (Jan-Jul Avg. 1015.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 77 (Jan-Jul Avg. 85.5 raindays)

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#1448036 - 08/01/2018 23:17 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cheers RWM.

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