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#1461581 - 12/04/2018 17:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
I am hanging out for winter ,Fire up the wood fire lol.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1461591 - 12/04/2018 19:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 589
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
My wood is quite damp. Proximity to coast for me seems to be not helpful for firewood drying in recent months.

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#1461592 - 12/04/2018 19:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10477
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
It's been feeling autumnal for about a week now with the comfortable mild nights and the less humid days. Summer 2017/18 has bid us farewell.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 18.4mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 6 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1331.6mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 129 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1461607 - 13/04/2018 07:42 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4836
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 0.4mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1461637 - 13/04/2018 13:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5590
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
Queensland winter weather: BoM to release long range forecast

THE weather bureau has predicted a cooler start to winter for Queensland with colder-than-average nights likely for the next three months.
Central Queensland residents are likely to feel the brunt of the cold weather with overnight minimum temperatures expected to drop below their 10C average between May and July.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook, to be released on Thursday, said the rest of the country would be in for a warmer winter.
“Night-time temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for southern parts of Australia while most of Queensland is likely to have cooler than average nights,” it read.
Rainfall is likely to remain average across the state after Queensland had the wettest March since 2012 last month.
The end of the school holidays will come with a mostly sunny weekend across the southeast with warm temperatures up around 30C.
The Gold Coast might see a shower or two on Saturday but the weather bureau has predicted perfect conditions for the closing ceremony on Sunday.


How are we supposed to get cooler than average nights up here but down south gets warmer? Does that mean they are expecting SAM to push less cold fronts up but wouldn't that mean we would also be warmer too? What about day time temps also - are they expected to be warmer, average or cooler?


Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
The outlook itself including the max temps is here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/temperature/maximum/median/seasonal/0

There can be any number of reasons that cause that pattern including a predisposition of lows occurring at latitudes of SE Australia which lead to a milder E or SE flow over southern parts and a colder (than normal) flow to their north.

Worth noting that the May to July seasonal outlook is for conditions averaged across those 3months - not necessarily indicative of conditions for every one of those 3 months.


I had a closer look at what was causing the warm north/cool south pattern in the latest June/May-June-July outlook by looking at some additional parameters from the Bureau's POAMA model (which generates the Bureau's seasonal outlooks).

A couple of the things I noticed was that the model has been going for high probabilities of lower than normal MSLP values in a broad swath stretching across northern and parts of eastern Australia during that period with the resultant higher than normal rainfall and cloudier than normal conditions in that belt, which in turn might be helping to cause the cooler than normal max temps. Although you'd expect min temps to often be higher than normal under cloudier/wetter conditions, it could be that it's causing the daytime temps to be so low that even if the min temps drop only a few degrees, they're still lower than normal. Just speculation though.

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#1461638 - 13/04/2018 14:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2275
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
That sounds yuck. Those freezing rainy overcast winter days are disgusting. Thanks for the info Ken. The forecast seemed a bit odd but that makes a lot more sense now.

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#1461640 - 13/04/2018 14:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5590
Looks like some storms could develop around the Downs and northern tablelands later on Saturday, one or two possibly strong due to the good shear.
Outside chance of some of the activity affecting a few places closer to the coast due to the reasonable westerly steering aloft but far from certain (no southerly change, instability is a bit modest, etc). ACCESS-R suggests the chance of a mix of sun & patchy cloud cover in the morning but doesn't stand out as being too excessive to eliminate storm chances for inland parts.
Later in the week features a period of modest instability with an onshore flow as well which might produce some thunder in spots - see 1st graphic below.

Some remarkable temperature scenarios currently being suggested for next month and winter (but also big disagreements) by a number of the models.

The 2nd and 3rd graphics are generated by an ensemble of 7 models calibrated by comparing past forecasts with what actually happened to improve its forecasts. Amazing extent of unseasonal warmth being suggested by a lot of these particular models but this is in complete contrast with the Bureau's POAMA model (which generates the bi-monthly seasonal outlooks that most people are familiar with) that's currently going for a broad swath of cooler than normal conditions across the north and parts of the east.

Some important caveats though - the maps below don't distinguish between min and max temps.
Also, the probabilities in our region of SE QLD/NE NSW are a bit weaker than other areas such as far north QLD.

And most importantly of all, it won't necessarily be like that all the time - there may well be the occasional colder period mixed in which bucks that overall trend:







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#1461641 - 13/04/2018 14:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2275
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Wow that's so different to BOM's forecast. If that came off it would make the last two warm winters look pretty ordinary in comparison.

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#1461642 - 13/04/2018 14:33 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5590
Yeah, but see the important caveats above. I'm hoping the heat won't eventuate for my sanity's sake.

Also, the EC ensemble is currently suggesting slightly better than borderline chances of enhanced rainfall for some parts of eastern Australia later this month.

In the shorter term, some places in our region could see April heat records start to be challenged by late this weekend with max temps rising into the low 30's for many places away from the coastline (5C or more above average for many), possibly close to the mid 30's in a few locations and well within the hottest 10% of past April max temps. Brisbane city itself will depend on whether the westerly flow can keep out the seabreeze enough.
NSW, VIC and SA have all had locations where April heat records have already tumbled across a number of days and there's a special climate statement that was issued today about it as well: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs65.pdf

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#1461652 - 13/04/2018 15:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1168
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
will make a mockery of some of the long term geezers predicting record cold winter.

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#1461659 - 13/04/2018 17:03 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3321
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Interestingly though cooler unstable weather sometimes follows big heat events?

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#1461667 - 13/04/2018 17:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: BIG T]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4836
Loc: Wynnum
Originally Posted By: BIG T
will make a mockery of some of the long term geezers predicting record cold winter.


Mr Taylor ??
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95),Nov36.2(109),Dec8.4(131)YTD916.2(1168).

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#1461669 - 13/04/2018 17:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3321
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Haha yea I read that article mini ice age..

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#1461674 - 13/04/2018 17:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1876
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Some dire news out here it seems .we have a feed grass die off that is spreading ,No one knows what it is or how to stop it. the farmers get rain and it should be growing but going yellow and dieing off. It was in central QLD but has reach Roma too.Old link from 2016 when it was first picked up.
https://www.daf.qld.gov.au/our-organisat...r-investigation
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1461684 - 13/04/2018 19:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5590
Re the May and Winter maps I posted earlier, disregard them for now - the very high probabilities looked a bit odd to me so I decided to cross-check with a separate website that displays the same forecasts.... there's a fairly big discrepancy so I just emailed the webmaster to find out what's going on.

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#1461688 - 13/04/2018 20:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: ozone doug]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 589
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: ozone doug
Some dire news out here it seems .we have a feed grass die off that is spreading ,No one knows what it is or how to stop it. the farmers get rain and it should be growing but going yellow and dieing off. It was in central QLD but has reach Roma too.Old link from 2016 when it was first picked up.
https://www.daf.qld.gov.au/our-organisat...r-investigation

Could that be a form of "rust" infestation?
I first saw rust in sugarcane up north a few decades ago. Since I learnt about it I have observed it affecting other plants beyond grasses.

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#1461713 - 14/04/2018 08:02 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Clouds moving in from NW getting darker, lovely cool autumn morning.

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#1461717 - 14/04/2018 09:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 300
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Anyone north west of Brizzy getting wet? And will this effect this arvo's chances??
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Just here for the weather

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#1461722 - 14/04/2018 10:21 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Very light rain last half or so hour. Humid.
No heat building.

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#1461739 - 14/04/2018 13:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 419
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Same here, a few light spots since about midday, on and off.
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Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

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