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#1462033 - 18/04/2018 13:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7019
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: divho
Hello Gleno71. There is a tongue of coldish air over Brisbane extending south east towards Lord Howe. -13įC at the 500 Hectopascal level (approx 19000 feet)above Bris.

There is a reflection in streamlines at that level over Bis as well.

Convergence can be difficult to see on streamlines at the surface. Speed convergence etc must also be considered ?

Also the 'landbreeze' in the mornings adds to convergence against a southeast stream onto the coast helps.




Thanks for the reply and info, although I don't find -13 "cold" at that level. Normally cold pools are over -20 and above when looking at these charts over the years. Its cleared up a lot compared to this morning, so whatever cold air there was, must of diminished by now.


Still cold enough to produce a deep slab of instability aloft:


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#1462034 - 18/04/2018 13:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4459
Loc: Brisbane
Au revoir Mt Stapy. See you again in 10 days time.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1462035 - 18/04/2018 13:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5215
Yep, it's not so the absolute temp of the midlevels itself that matters - it's the temp difference between the midlevels and lower levels that matters. Midlevel temps can also be colder or warmer than normal for a given time of year. You can clearly see that lobe of colder midlevel air extending over SE QLD with the resultant increase in instability.
Adding moisture to the rising air will increase instability even more, given all other things equal.

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#1462039 - 18/04/2018 14:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5215
Various models have been wanting to deepen a trough off the east coast later next week with a few of them trying to eventually form a big ECL near the NSW coast in the trough.
But that wouldn't bring us much weather unless anything formed closer to the coast than expected or to our north.

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#1462040 - 18/04/2018 15:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4584
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth rain since 0900 25.4mm. Event total 30.0mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul17.6(56.1),YTD661.8(757.2)

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#1462048 - 18/04/2018 17:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Fair bit of agreement on a low coming past next week, as Ken said would have to be north or west to give us anything but a lovely cool weekend.

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#1462051 - 18/04/2018 18:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
A big fat juicy ECL, wouldnt that be nice.
Maybe thats what these bloody bugs been waiting for!

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#1462061 - 19/04/2018 06:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Rod H Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 01/05/2006
Posts: 41
Loc: Maudsland
There is a HUGE rainfall prob difference between the 7 day forecast on Weather Zone for Coomera and the forecast on the BOM site. WX Zone for Tuesday 24th shows 40-80mm yet the BOM site states 1-8 mm.
Is this an error on one of the sites and if so which one?


Edited by Rod H (19/04/2018 06:13)

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#1462065 - 19/04/2018 07:46 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
AccessG looks great for a drop over SEQ next week, GFS not so. Any low hugging the coast near Fraser will be interesting to watch if it happens.

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#1462068 - 19/04/2018 08:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5215
I forgot to mention, one other way we can get reasonable rainfall if any deepening troughs or lows donít form very close to, or to our north is if the upper trough helping to induce those systems is situated to our west... in which case, it can cause rainfall from us (although it normally wouldnít be as focussed/heavy as much as an ECL).

As for WZís rainfall forecast for Coomera, I think itís simply what they or their Opticast system is going for.

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#1462071 - 19/04/2018 08:18 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4584
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 33.2mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul17.6(56.1),YTD661.8(757.2)

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#1462072 - 19/04/2018 08:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 453
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
For interest only (I do not believe it) - Canadian NWP forecast rain for next ten days is wild!
https://weather.us/model-charts/can/1529-e-277-s/accumulated-precipitation/20180428-1200z.html

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#1462077 - 19/04/2018 08:40 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Rod H]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5215
Originally Posted By: Rod H
There is a HUGE rainfall prob difference between the 7 day forecast on Weather Zone for Coomera and the forecast on the BOM site. WX Zone for Tuesday 24th shows 40-80mm yet the BOM site states 1-8 mm.
Is this an error on one of the sites and if so which one?

I just had a closer look at the setup and it appears that the 40-80mm from Weatherzone is because of some (but not all) of the scenarios that are bringing in the ECL ashore and the accompanying heavier rainfall over SE QLD.

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#1462085 - 19/04/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
grayarea Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/05/2007
Posts: 527
Loc: Buderim, Sunshine Coast
Well had 28mm in my rain gauge over previous 24 hours till 7am.
Now living in Buderim. Easier to see the rain coming towards us than Doonan.
With forecast onshore showers over the next week could well imagine getting totals in excess of 100mm.

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#1462104 - 19/04/2018 14:22 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1142
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
We have Thunder at Bell and according to the radar,maybe a shower at Jimbour. Oh if only that Canadian one came off! May save the upcoming season!
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-153, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1462116 - 19/04/2018 16:00 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5215
You can see where the CMC (Canadian) model's scenario (red) lies in relation to the ones from other models in the accumulating precip graph for Brisbane (dark blue = EC, green = GFS, purple = ACCESS-G, etc etc):



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#1462119 - 19/04/2018 16:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 244
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Big variation there Ken. can understand why some get excited if they don't look at the big picture. Thx for the comparison.
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We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1462124 - 19/04/2018 16:34 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4459
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
You can see where the CMC (Canadian) model's scenario (red) lies in relation to the ones from other models in the accumulating precip graph for Brisbane (dark blue = EC, green = GFS, purple = ACCESS-G, etc etc):




May this be the one time in one hundred that CMC is actually right!
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1462128 - 19/04/2018 17:01 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3364
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Fingers crossed. We need a few inches if possible.

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#1462132 - 19/04/2018 17:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3124
Loc: Buderim
Well CMC seems to agree with GFS and EC that the uppper level low will develop almost directly on top of SEQ. GFS and EC put surface response out to sea, but CMC inland. I think upper level trough well west is much better for rain here. My money would be on the surface trough/low being out to sea unless the upper level trough moves further west. Looks far enough north for some decent enhanced shower activity.

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