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#1462948 - 02/05/2018 09:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1568
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Haha anyone see GFS update? Would be nice poke
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S.Kunze

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#1462949 - 02/05/2018 09:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5590
You talking about the instability and shear it's going for for later next week? Or the big blob of intense precip?

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#1462950 - 02/05/2018 09:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Stephen Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2004
Posts: 1568
Loc: Buderim ,Sunshine Coast
Precipitation. I mean it is just a fast change in comparison to its last run. Obviously if it thinks there will be an embedded low somewhere of Fraser then that is great, just bit of a fast turn around for GFS from earlier runs
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S.Kunze

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#1462952 - 02/05/2018 11:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
At least it's not extended GFS poke
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1462953 - 02/05/2018 11:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7355
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Slow moving upper low is the culprit...probably gone in a few runs...although other models are hinting at increased instability around the same period but nowhere near to the same extent (much flatter trough rather than a full blown upper low).

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#1462955 - 02/05/2018 11:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4481
Loc: Brisbane
Those pesky upper lows. It was a slow moving upper low that contributed significantly to the 2011 floods.
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This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1462960 - 02/05/2018 13:36 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Lani]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1199
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Sorry correction on my post, it was not Manilla NSW: It was a property at Ivanhoe, Western NSW. They've only had 7.5mm for the year and 125mm last 18 months. It looks like a desert there.
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Jimbour rain: 2018-392.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-202.5, Nov-10.5

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1462961 - 02/05/2018 14:19 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mega]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5205
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Mega
Slow moving upper low is the culprit...probably gone in a few runs...although other models are hinting at increased instability around the same period but nowhere near to the same extent (much flatter trough rather than a full blown upper low).

Latest EC control out in la la land time also have some fun happening:



You know it's been a slow 6 months when we get excited about this stuff cry

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#1462962 - 02/05/2018 16:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cant we just drag that purply bit onshore a tad? Please!!


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (02/05/2018 16:13)

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#1462971 - 02/05/2018 19:57 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10477
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
There were 11 consecutive days of rainfall recorded here from April 20th to 30th (inclusive).
Late Friday night's change shouldn't bring any rain, so it looks like fine weather until some point next week.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
December 2018 Rainfall: 18.4mm (December Avg. 118.3mm) // December 2018 Raindays: 6 (December Avg. 12.8 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1331.6mm (Yearly Avg. 1490.8mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 129 (Yearly Avg. 137.6 raindays)

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#1462974 - 02/05/2018 20:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: KevD]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 589
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: KevD

You know it's been a slow 6 months when we get excited about this stuff cry

The map colour of 15 day rain total and compare to say 3-7 day rain total can change and moderate excitement. Questioning the models shows the individual EC model ensemble members in the forecast are very different. Many ensemble members showing rain along coast somewhere Gladstone to mid NSW. Anybody's guess, models are just only estimates.


Edited by Flowin (02/05/2018 20:15)
Edit Reason: Typo
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Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

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#1462976 - 02/05/2018 20:41 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1086
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Wow Lani, now that is a drought! Makes me feel quite lucky actually. I now you have been doing quite hard too up there NW of me. Let us hope for a warm wet winter. Seems like the jet stream is not in our favour right now as the lows come up just west of Tasmania then head south again. Looks like that ridge is holding strong in eastern Australia.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1463013 - 03/05/2018 14:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
AccessG & GFS interested in some precip wednesday next week onwards. WATL showing some colour around then as well.
Be nice to break this boring fine crappy weather. Any thoughts?

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#1463016 - 03/05/2018 14:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3452
Loc: Buderim
Looks like a solid ridge right through the Tasman feeding a long fetch moist easterly onto the coast, with a moderate upper level trough. Might be mostly coastal. Will depend on whether any low or troughing spoils the party out to sea.

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#1463019 - 03/05/2018 15:04 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Cheers Mike, Access G in particular has a very nice feature over SEQ late in a weeks time atm. See how it comes & goes I suppose.
Probably more like going, gone.

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#1463026 - 03/05/2018 17:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3591
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Well now, even BOM is now keen on a decent drink Tue & Wed. Gotta see it to believe it but there is always hope.

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#1463032 - 03/05/2018 17:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5590
If you just go by the upper level patterns, you'd have to think that there'll be at least some enhanced rainfall for us early next week ahead of the first upper trough (and with the moist onshore flow). Sometimes, rainfall amounts from these can exceed initial forecasts.

Later in the week looks a bit more complicated where it'll depend on how any offshore surface features play out and determine whether we'll get rainfall-limiting southerlies if any lows or troughs stay too far to our east or south.... or a more moist onshore flow if they come very close or come ashore to our north.

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#1463034 - 03/05/2018 17:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 948
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Thread time...

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#1463062 - 03/05/2018 22:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 314
Loc: Golden Beach
It is hard to be excited about this kind of setup. Usually ends in northern NSW getting a drenching and we get frustrated. If the models had the rain forecast for Bundaberg we would be a chance. Sorry for the negativity,but when was the last time an ECL gave SEQ a decent drink?

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#1463067 - 03/05/2018 22:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2275
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Model disagreement, southward trending of rainfall and the disappointment of the last 'event'. I wouldn't even be bothered creating a new thread for this.

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