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#1463802 - 14/05/2018 06:50 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 442
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Some nice colour in tonight's sunset, snapped this on the tablet just before...


Yes I seen on the satellite there was some nice cloud around just South of Brisbane. Colours looked nice looking at some of the webcam pics.
i would have missed it completely if not for my daughter...I was watching the footy on the telly and she called me to come out on the verandah and have a look at how pretty the sunset was...glad she did. My tablet pic does that sunset little justice, was much better to view in the real world.

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#1463805 - 14/05/2018 08:24 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1839
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all ,Got down to 1.7 deg out here. Nice clear sunny day.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1463818 - 14/05/2018 13:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18460
Loc: Burnett Heads
The cool nights here in winter make way for stunning days . Absolutely perfect here today.
_________________________
"When it comes to the weather, "occasionally" is better than "not at all".

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#1463826 - 14/05/2018 15:27 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3195
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Low level flow here seems to starting to turn back to S to SE'lys over the next few days. Some coastal low level clouds perhaps the odd shower probably just offshore. Looks pretty stable for a couple of weeks.

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#1463828 - 14/05/2018 15:43 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Namarrkun]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Originally Posted By: Namarrkun
Some nice colour in tonight's sunset, snapped this on the tablet just before...


Yes I seen on the satellite there was some nice cloud around just South of Brisbane. Colours looked nice looking at some of the webcam pics.
i would have missed it completely if not for my daughter...I was watching the footy on the telly and she called me to come out on the verandah and have a look at how pretty the sunset was...glad she did. My tablet pic does that sunset little justice, was much better to view in the real world.



Nothing can beat the Human eye that's for sure. Always good to witness a stunning sunset even if you don't have a camera in hand

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#1463836 - 14/05/2018 17:47 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7121
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
There's a decent looking upper trough due to form through inland QLD later in the week but the lower levels just aren't conducive to produce anything significant from it - and by that I mean we've locked into a pattern now where we have a deep westerly wind belt running across the Tasman Sea (consequence of the stagnant LWT?) and a gigantic blocking high sitting in the bight which is blasting us with drier SSE winds. Every single day looks nearly identical on model prediction charts up to 10 days - huge high in the bight - offshore winds across southern half of the Tasman Sea - and the 500mb longwave pattern indicates the LWT simply does not move from the Tasman Sea / NZ longitudes for days. Classic block pattern here.

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#1463848 - 14/05/2018 22:14 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3429
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Pls tell us some good news ;-)

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#1463851 - 14/05/2018 22:54 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7121
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
Pls tell us some good news ;-)


Sorry mate, no can do! frown

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#1463857 - 15/05/2018 07:10 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Mega]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2116
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
http://www.news.com.au/technology/enviro...ce78e0c754bf8e7

Not sure I understand the point of this study? Are they saying BOM and others just consider individual weather events at a time and not combinations of causal factors? I would have thought they did?

For example:

Dr Leonard highlighted the Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria and the Brisbane floods of 2011 as examples.

He said while the fires were brought about because of drought and a heatwave, they were driven by a high pressure system and resulted in hospitals being stretched, so there were multiple considerations.

“With the floods it was two storms in quick succession and there wasn’t enough appreciation for the quick succession of storms,” Dr Leonard said.


This makes no sense at all. From memory it was the high pressure system with a front that caused the Black Saturday bushfires. They were the short-term causes - the sort of thing BOM would typically warn about as a bushfire danger. It was the droughts and heatwave that were the medium and longer-term causes. As for the Brisbane floods that was clearly caused by La-Nina/IOD/high SSTs as a long-term factor with consistent rainfall and heavy rain events in the medium with a significant upper low event and embedded storms/rain trains causing the actual flood. This is pretty 'common knowledge' in BOM releases and in the Aus weather community. Is the study really pointing out such obvious things or am I missing something here?


Edited by Nature's Fury (15/05/2018 07:11)

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#1463858 - 15/05/2018 07:13 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3214
Loc: Buderim
Models show a tropical trade wind surge in a weeks time. Some suggestion of ECL a good way north with a good tropical moisture feed, but latest GFS model has it starting a long way off the coast and moving east at a rapid rate.....

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#1463861 - 15/05/2018 07:23 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
NF: I'm not sure what the article is getting at either. The longer term background influences that initially helped set the stage for both the Black Saturday fires and the 2011 floods were extensively and frequently talked about and in the spotlight long before the individual weather events occurred.

“When hazards impact communities we’ll hear, ‘the one that caught us by surprise’ and ‘we didn’t see it coming’ or ‘this wasn’t like the ones we’ve seen before’. <=== this sort of attitude always irritates me. It often comes from people who live in a cave and reeks of a "just because I didn't hear about the warnings, no-one else did" kind of mentality. Sure, some events do end up being a lot worse than first expected but in this day and age, it's virtually unheard of to have a big weather system causing widespread destruction such as a TC or big bushfires without any warning or signs beforehand.

The one thing that is interesting though is the research in recent years focussing on certain combinations of the biggest multiple impacts from certain synoptic setups.

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#1463862 - 15/05/2018 07:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Nature's Fury]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3214
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: Nature's Fury
http://www.news.com.au/technology/enviro...ce78e0c754bf8e7

Not sure I understand the point of this study?


They don't say exactly which study they are referring to, but it might be this perspective, which is not really a scientific study, but a 'perspective' which is closer to an opinion piece, but still written according to scholarly standards/academic rigor.

If it is referring to that article it seems more about forecasting and preparing for future climate change rather than short term forecasting - it talks about engineers and climate scientists, but not weather forecasters. Full article is behind paywall.

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#1463870 - 15/05/2018 09:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1209
Loc: Toowoomba
There is a couple of things I believe about humans and the weather. Apart from us tiny minority that are interested in the weather and know a bit about it, like myself and the rest of you especially Ken who have a huge knowledge, is This. The vast mass of the people out there have absolutely NO UNDERSTANDING of the weather and really NO interest. I posted once that I believe 99.999% of people along the south coast of QLD have no idea what a tropical cyclone is. I got hammered for it but I still stand by it. When it comes to communicating with the public I am afraid Ken, the Bureau will always be up against ignorance and arrogance. Also if you take a line from about south of Roma to Oakey through Toowoomba and down the western edge of the great divide; this area and many parts of NSW[SEE NSW THREAD) are going into an exceptional drought. It seems that some posters feel this could be unprecedented. Hope this is not off topic and too rambling. Enjoy your day everybody.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (15/05/2018 09:13)

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#1463871 - 15/05/2018 09:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5303
Originally Posted By: NotsohopefulPete
There is a couple of things I believe about humans and the weather. Apart from us tiny minority that are interested in the weather and know a bit about it, like myself and the rest of you especially Ken who have a huge knowledge, is This. The vast mass of the people out there have absolutely NO UNDERSTANDING of the weather and really NO interest. I posted once that I believe 99.999% of people along the south coast of QLD have no idea what a tropical cyclone is. I got hammered for it but I still stand by it. When it comes to communicating with the public I am afraid Ken, the Bureau will always be up against ignorance and arrogance. Also if you take a line from about south of Roma to Oakey through Toowoomba and down the western edge of the great divide; this area and many parts of NSW[SEE NSW THREAD) are going into an exceptional drought. It seems that some posters feel this could be unprecedented. Hope this is not off topic and too rambling. Enjoy your day everybody.

Hmmm I don't know about "no interest". I always see a lots of people commenting and showing interest whenever we have severe thunderstorm setups, cold blasts or TC's up north on many social media (non-weather) news pages... and especially just during day to day activities such as riding on a bus, overhearing people's conversations in food courts, etc etc I often hear talk about any upcoming major weather events that have gained headlines in the media.
So I think there is a widespread general interest in weather whether it's the type that affects people's own activities or major weather events. The fact that the Bureau's radar webpages are one of the most clicked-on sites in Australia is testament to that e.g. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...ith-the-weather

But I do think there's a big difference between that general interest and how much people actually know about the weather and forecasting e.g. many people including media in this country still struggle to grasp the concept that tornadoes actually do occur in Australia, not just "mini tornadoes".
I once remember a news crew interviewed some people on the street about what they knew about how official forecasts are created - one guy said in a serious way "they just google for it on the internet don't they?"

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#1463874 - 15/05/2018 09:48 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
NotsohopefulPete Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/12/2008
Posts: 1209
Loc: Toowoomba
I suppose there is a difference between interest and understanding. I just noticed the places I have worked in, both office and factory, the ignorance was appalling, In the last job, it was really frustrating trying to, very kindly, of course, explain things and answer genuine questions. But then, everybody loves the Bureau radar, just a shame there will not be much to see for a while, except out to sea., if that.


Edited by NotsohopefulPete (15/05/2018 09:56)

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#1463883 - 15/05/2018 13:31 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 286
Loc: Golden Beach
Is it normal for a high to actually regress to the west? I don't think I have seen that happen before.

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#1463887 - 15/05/2018 15:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: NotsohopefulPete]
Lewis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2011
Posts: 331
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
I agree with Pete here - when people do talk about the weather, or when the media does report it, it is often after the worst has passed - when you have roofs ripped off, people crying and businesses ruined, rather than beforehand when people actually need the notice. Tropical cyclones would be the exception, but even then, the most significant coverage occurs during and after the cyclone - too late to prepare!

May 1 2015 still sticks in my head as the best example. We had a serious (and eventually fatal) situation, yet even as late as 4-5pm the media (TV & radio) were still too busy talking about the latest celebrity outrage...
_________________________
Donut hole V2.0.

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#1463898 - 15/05/2018 20:12 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3195
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
A dedicated weather channel free to air would be great.

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#1463904 - 15/05/2018 21:29 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 508
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
I am really hoping the forecast for the next few days of not much chance of rain holds true. I would usually like some rain, but last weeks minor dribble early in the week showed a roof leak. it got a lot worse as I found I needed to replace the whole lower level roof at home, as the roof pitch is nearly zero degrees slope and trying to replace a piece of it only is not an option because it is 1960s clip lock roofing. So I took the old roofing off yesterday. I need few days to extend some framing, before new colourbond goes on Friday. Tarps are up overhead, but still right now I would not like any rain, and also not much wind.
Must say though daytime temps are perfect for working at the moment.

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#1463914 - 16/05/2018 09:35 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Snapper22lb]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1531
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Snapper22lb
Is it normal for a high to actually regress to the west? I don't think I have seen that happen before.


I know strong high's have a tendency to be very slow moving, can't recall a high ever moving west.

However if you look at Tropical cyclones and east coast lows, they can move in a westerly direction towards the coast from the ocean, so maybe the same rules apply to very strong highs.

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