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#1462909 - 01/05/2018 14:29 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 724
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
The high max of 21 c went out the window along time ago today , another 23 c plus stinging stinker. No wonder the Poplar trees are getting new green leaves before the have shed the old foliage.

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#1462912 - 01/05/2018 15:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10129
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I think our max today was about 22 - so you've got me covered for today for sure.

Gee our Poplars have finally just decided to go that beautiful gold colour over the last week. Yours trying to shoot again - crazy!!

Our nights now getting well below yours I suspect. Last week or more we've had mainly low to mid single digit nights.

That 3 to 6 or 7 range.

We average 3.6 for May where Hobart has around 7. Your proximity to water holds it up a bit over us.
Clearly more inland towns would be chilling more though down there as long as cloud cover is absent. smile

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#1462918 - 01/05/2018 16:12 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 724
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Hi Dave , thanks for the feedback and stay cool up there smile
I'm actually holding a very slim hope that the idea of the Sunspot activity "Solar Minimum ?" may lead to a cooler period in history.
I really know squat about it , but I'll take any hope for our future.
Oh and Nate from the ABC News Weather says he is getting excited about the Cold Front heading over from the West ( the second one ) that may finally kick start a more permanent cool down over your and our side of the Country.


Edited by MOUNTAIN h2o (01/05/2018 16:15)

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#1462919 - 01/05/2018 16:14 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10129
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I'm hoping the same thing H smile

Lot's of people tell me "it's not gunna happen" but I'm still hoping like you smile

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#1462931 - 01/05/2018 20:30 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1977
Loc: Westbury
Diurnal swing of more than 20 degrees today, started the day at 0.9 and finished with a max of 21.5. Will have to check and see if we've had a bigger difference between max and min this late in the year, not so rare in Summer. Unusually our min was a full 11.9 degrees cooler than Hobart. Only 1 min over 10 degrees since the 13th of April, generally under 5 now - at least during this run of clear, dry nights. Only 3 rainy days in April, average min was 6.3 and average max 18.1. Looks wet Thurs through Sat - just in time for Agfest.

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#1462933 - 01/05/2018 20:44 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6777
If you thought Hobart was warm today, Liawenee got to 19.2C today!! So if the warm air was able to mix down well, Hobart could've got close to 30.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1463065 - 03/05/2018 22:43 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
MOUNTAIN h2o Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/03/2012
Posts: 724
Loc: Hobart Lenah Valley Tas 198 as...
Well the closer those Cold Fronts get the worse it looks. Once again from Tuesday the Highs move in and push everything else away. The old rinse and repeat pattern that is the gift that never stops giving smile I really don't think we a over 20 plus days just yet.
Still a very muggy 18 c here in Hobart at 11:00 pm , nothing like May in Hobart May in Brisbane perhaps?

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#1463086 - 04/05/2018 08:55 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2137
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Morning all,
Yes agree re heat but has cooled a little in the next week.
Does look like the same old pattern though.
Up at Great Lake again since Wednesday night then down to Agfest. Then we came back up last night and it was still 10 degrees at 9 pm here.
Bit tired the other night and filled unleaded drum with diesel and then last night filled generator and wonders why it was Smokey and stopped running.
So now need to drain tank of 20+ L of fuel ya ya.
By the way we had 5mm here at the Southern end of the lake and Pine Tree rivulet in the North of the lake had 26mm. Not fair but normal.
Winds now picking up.

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#1463088 - 04/05/2018 09:05 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10129
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Nice work with the fuel drum SF smile

As MH said - models backing off the good looking changes of a few days back - again.

All we can do is watch & hope.

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#1463089 - 04/05/2018 09:18 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1977
Loc: Westbury
A mild night, but 13mm of rain.

Indeed, top work re the fuel SF.


Agfest looking as busy as ever with traffic in and out. Might head down for a look tomorrow.

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#1463129 - 04/05/2018 22:22 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2137
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Evening all,
You will be happy to know the generator is now just fine!
Had showers this afternoon and again now.
About 3 degrees and 1.2mm
Looks a bit windy later tomorrow and Monday!

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#1463130 - 04/05/2018 22:28 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2137
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Sleet out there now in a heavier shower.
3.2 degrees

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#1463275 - 06/05/2018 22:24 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Stale fish Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/06/2001
Posts: 2137
Loc: Leslie vale 310m asl
Looks like some Easterly rains on the way and a big blow tomorrow.
Another 20 degree day and the chance of some escaped fires me thinks with the wind and all the resent burning offs

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#1463284 - 07/05/2018 10:53 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
payshense Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/03/2013
Posts: 937
Loc: West Coast, TAS, 310m ASL / Bu...
Hi all, please share.

Severe weather warning for the entire State, issued an hour ago. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDT21037.shtml

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Severe Weather Warning
for DAMAGING WINDS
For people in King Island, Furneaux Islands, Western, Upper Derwent Valley, South East, North East, East Coast, North West Coast, Central North, Central Plateau and Midlands Forecast Districts.

Issued at 9:48 am Monday, 7 May 2018.
Damaging winds extending statewide from the west during Monday afternoon.

Weather Situation:
Strong northwesterly winds develop over Tasmania as a cold fron and low approach, crossing early this evening. Winds then shift westerly and begin to ease.
DAMAGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, averaging 70 km/h with peak gusts in excess of 100 km/h are likely throughout Tasmania this afternoon and evening, with gusts in excess of 110 km/h possible over the southern half of the state south of a line from Strahan to Swansea. Elevated areas above 400 metres may experience gusts in excess of 120 km/h.
The windiest period will be between 5pm and 9pm as the cold front crosses, with wind gusts easing below 100 k/hr late this evening.
Locations which may be affected include Devonport, Burnie, Launceston, St Helens, Swansea, Strahan, New Norfolk and Hobart.
The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Supervise children closely.
* Check that family and neighbours are aware of warnings.
* Manage pets and livestock.
* Secure outdoor items including furniture and play equipment.
* Be prepared in case of power outages.
* Beware of damaged trees and power lines and take care when driving.
* Listen to the ABC radio or check www.ses.tas.gov.au for further advice.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132500.

The next Severe Weather Warning will be issued by 5:00 pm AEST Monday.

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#1463292 - 07/05/2018 11:52 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10129
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
I don't miss that wind.

GFS thinks the SE of Tas will cop huge rains over the coming week. Thoughts?

Map showing possible amounts exceeding 200mm.

GFS Clearly thinking of a low to the east of Hobart.

IF!!! GFS is somewhere near the mark - look out!!

Access completely different.

EC not as bullish but gives very solid precip as well around the coming weekend time frame.

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#1463303 - 07/05/2018 13:38 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
Snowies Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/10/2001
Posts: 1977
Loc: Westbury
GFS would certainly create some serious flooding issues around the SE and east coast.

But the usual forecasters 'hedge' in these circumstances, EC but wait and see for another day or two.

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#1463304 - 07/05/2018 13:41 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 406
Loc: Hobart
Would love to see a Hurricane Force wind warning issued at some time...think it's been issued only once before. The Tasmania wind records for May appear to be 159km on Mt Wellington, 158 Maatsuyker Is, 152 Cape Grim, 143 Mt Read, 135 Tasman Island, 135 Hobart...just in case things get interesting tonight

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#1463305 - 07/05/2018 13:59 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
tarbaby Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 06/05/2018
Posts: 1
According to the BOM, on Friday 11 May it will be windy, especially between St Helens and Flinders Island



with heavy rain up to 150mm around the south east


looks like widespread destruction if the BOM is right!

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#1463307 - 07/05/2018 14:09 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10129
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Hello Yep

I remember Hurricane force warning and winds when I was there, my mother in law was flying into Wynyard on a smallish REX plane on that day!!!

Managed to land it, we were surprised they got in. Can't remember exact year, maybe 2007?

Horrible day!!! It worried me when I heard the forecast because I had not experienced that before. It was not a good day to have a line of big trees just across a lane from the house!!

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#1463308 - 07/05/2018 14:10 Re: What's happening in Tassie? [Re: duckweather]
BrightonBreeze Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 12/07/2016
Posts: 188
Loc: Brighton, Tas 55m ASL
Hi all, interesting few days ahead! Especially if that ECL comes together!

Getting quite gusty about the place especially out on the Derwent! Lots of white caps, gusty too at home, reaching 82 km/h already and just shy of 21C.

Looking forward to the wild afternoon/evening.. grin

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