At Manilla, NSW, this April's mean temperatures 1st to 17th are Max 31, Mean 23, Min 14.
At the usual rate of Autumn cooling, I expect the final April means to be 1 degree lower, that is: Max 30, Mean 22, Min 13.
I set up my April normals using the decade April 1999 to March 2008 as: Max 26, Mean 18, Min 11.
The April anomaly values that I expect for this April are:
Max +4, Mean +4, Min +2.
That will make it about one degree warmer than my previous warmest April: 2005.
Last April (2017) was my fourth coolest: more than one degree below normal.
In 20 years, the rise in the April linear trend is trivial.
A fitted quartic trend line is low in 1999 and 2011, and high in 2003 and 2018. The quartic trend line for Max is a couple of years in advance of the quartic trend line for Min.
Weatherzone has a news item, sourced to "ABC", about this April warmth. It includes statements by Blair Trewin.
I expect it will just get lost, like all old news.
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