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#1461986 - 18/04/2018 07:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Does anyone know if this crazy April weather has been confined to Australia, or have southern Africa and parts of S America and NZ been seeing outlandish April warmer than normal anomalies too? ie is this a hemispheric wide thing or just Aussie specific
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#1461989 - 18/04/2018 07:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Wave Rider]
Perfect Storm Offline
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Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 968
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider


Looks like a half decent setup actually. Upper temps keep cooling as we get towards winter while ground temps remain fairly warm.


I'd love to give it some credence but the pattern for the south west metro in particular when it has come to any convective rain has been absolutely languishing.

In the metro, north from about a line from Merrylands to Olympic Park to Sydney CBD northwards have done a lot better during convective set ups even during this pattern.

I sincerely hope that we do get something as I'd never say never but convective set ups, and I guess by their very nature is sporadic and hit and miss. See what happens.
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#1461991 - 18/04/2018 08:02 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1160
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Cool night again last night, well below the 18C forecast, in fact about 5C below it. Was only 11C yesterday night.
First signs that the weather is finally becoming more autumnish.
Still, what has happened in the first half of the month will not stop most monthly records being smashed.

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#1461993 - 18/04/2018 08:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1160
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Originally Posted By: Knot
Does anyone know if this crazy April weather has been confined to Australia, or have southern Africa and parts of S America and NZ been seeing outlandish April warmer than normal anomalies too? ie is this a hemispheric wide thing or just Aussie specific


I often wonder about that.
But in some ways one would expect there to be no correlation, in much the same way Sydney and Perth have little correlation.
Don't really look at NZ that much, but from the Rugby, it seems to have turned colder there earlier.

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#1461998 - 18/04/2018 08:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5308
Loc: Tweed Coast
Sydney (and many other places) are guaranteed their hottest April on record. However, what will be interesting to see is how many places will not only break their April record, but March record as well (going by long term models, Sydney is a chance!). Will be watching smile

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#1462001 - 18/04/2018 08:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Knot]
pete28 Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2007
Posts: 1131
Loc: Christchurch, New Zealand
Originally Posted By: Knot
Does anyone know if this crazy April weather has been confined to Australia, or have southern Africa and parts of S America and NZ been seeing outlandish April warmer than normal anomalies too? ie is this a hemispheric wide thing or just Aussie specific


Certainly for Christchurch it's turned colder quite early here with snow down to 100m asl here last week, we are running at around the April average max of 17C here so it looks like predominately a eastern Australian phenomenon...

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#1462003 - 18/04/2018 08:58 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
@Derek. I wasn't thinking in terms of correlation. Just along lines of whether this thing was unique to Australia at moment.
Thanks for NZ info Pete.
To complete the picture.... Any zoners in South Africa or Chile or Argentina? I doubt it he he he
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#1462004 - 18/04/2018 09:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
The 7 day Cape Town forecast here https://www.places.co.za/html/temperaturegr.html shows that each max will be considerably below the av max, whilst the mins are above average for April according to this site https://www.places.co.za/html/temperaturegr.html
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#1462006 - 18/04/2018 09:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Pretoria 7 day is a mix of average and some above av min and max

Buenos Aires 7 day forecast looks considerably above average for daytimes and nights.
Yeh yeh. This is a NSW focused discussion lol


Edited by Knot (18/04/2018 09:41)
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#1462010 - 18/04/2018 10:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Perfect Storm]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Perfect Storm

I'd love to give it some credence but the pattern for the south west metro in particular when it has come to any convective rain has been absolutely languishing.

In the metro, north from about a line from Merrylands to Olympic Park to Sydney CBD northwards have done a lot better during convective set ups even during this pattern.

I sincerely hope that we do get something as I'd never say never but convective set ups, and I guess by their very nature is sporadic and hit and miss. See what happens.

I've been noticing this trend as well and its been extremely annoying to say the least considering the bushfire catastrophe that is just wrapping up.
I've seen this video which listed storm alley according to insurance data, So the line for most severe storms runs either Penrith-Castle HIll-Turramurra or Prospect-Parramatta-Burwood-Marickville this has something to do with the geography of Sydney and how storms generally form over the basin.
So generally the South-West is a sucker for storms but i don't mind the lack of destructiveness. Although East Coast Lows are our time to shine. Although many storm this season have moved in from the South-West so you would imagine us getting better rainfall. Case in point is Feb 26 Olympic Park recieved 81.8mm, Camden received 34.6mm and Bankstown with 41mm although this time the rainfall was moving off the ranges from a NW direction the system was from the South-West.
Edit lol EC is going for the first ECL of the season 27th April GFS was spurring a few in its models as well, lets see if the SST anomalies come into use after a large period of time cooking under a High Pressure ridge.


Edited by ashestoashes (18/04/2018 10:35)

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#1462015 - 18/04/2018 10:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1605
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
been watching that ECL ashes. EC has it actually setting up to bring some rain. The other models look to bomb it too far south with standard SW'ers. Im hoping like you fellow parched folk EC comes off, but I think it will probably just bomb into just another wind event for us up here. (reverse psychology has worked in the past). Ants arent too interested just yet either.

This pattern is very worrying. I regard Jan-June as our wet season and if it doesnt pay up in that 6 month block, I dont have high hopes for a proper recharge before next summer. Of course it only takes 1 big random event in any month, but even those seem rare in the last few years.

Those warm SST's need cold pools to be injected up across NSW or retrograde in the northern Tasman. If, as this -SAM has done so far it just throws big southern ocean lows at us....it will just be all wind and evaporation anywhere north of the southern Highlands. If the cold pools get pushed up past tassie, they will continously bomb in the southern Tasman and use up all the warm water in useless ECLS, bar perhaps floods on S coast and Gippsland. You only need half a dozen of those and the SST's will drop back with no benefit for us. We just have to pray the dynamics come together or we will be back to discussing fires in July or August....

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#1462017 - 18/04/2018 11:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Online   content
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Gringos what's the set up for a Pasha type ECL because that's what you'll need sadly with the destruction and everything it brings. Also a couple more events with that, like for example a patch of Sea east of Kiama is having SSTs of 25c that's insane, you are right in that sense if ECL forms around the South-Coast or Gippsland all the cold southern Ocean will get pushed up.

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#1462021 - 18/04/2018 11:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4315
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thought I'd snapshot this for posterity - Friday next week according to Access. An ECL forms off the NSW North Coast on Anzac day, moves Southwards and intensifies, unfortunately too far off the coast for a lot of rain. Once down south, it digs up cold air from sub-Antarctic waters and sends it over NSW:



The blue line runs over Sydney, 850 temps about 1 degree.

It might all change next run.

EC is probably more like what people here are looking for - heavy rain although pretty much restricted to East of the Divide:


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#1462023 - 18/04/2018 11:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1605
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Not dissimilar to the end of EC current run ashes, but the HPS holds strength and cradles the developing ECL more off the central region of NSW rather than letting it slip down the coast and bomb away to the SE. If the high holds strong enough, the main low can rapidly intensify and become slow moving close to the coast. The ECL can pump successive microlows onshore and/or the main system could cross the coast. I remember being glued to my laptop in 2007 (amongst trying to salvage unsecured bits and pieces flying everywhere) as the ECL came across my house, had a full eye and light winds in the middle and all!
You really want the cold pool drifting across at about the latitude of canberra or further north is better, this will bring rain from the northwest to the inland areas (sometimes many successive waves) before it bombs off the coast and thats where us coasties get our turn. If you get a retrograde in the northern Tasman, the inland is likely to miss out on rain. It looks like the current EC run doesnt have a cold pool coming over land (so not much inland rain), so either its just a developing surface feature or the cold pool amplifies off the coast to enhance the surface low.
This coming few months could be epic weather for us right across NSW, or it could just be barelling southern ocean lows and buckets of snow for the south and just dry dry dry everywhere else. Keeping and eye out for decent NW moisture also. In a perfect world we would get a combo of both Cold pools/cutoffs/ECLS and fronts and bring good rain over greater NSW and good snow events through southern areas, with the odd big outbreak running right up the ranges. We are seeing record heat....what price record cold come July? Seems a long shot hey! I know records are interesting but this heat and Quidge has been just boring as batshitte for too long.

P.s good work on graphics Steve only saw after I posted. Access equals what we dont want, EC is what we do want!! I have a bad feeling that EC wont win..


Edited by GringosRain (18/04/2018 11:46)

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#1462025 - 18/04/2018 11:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
We are seeing record heat....what price record cold come July? Seems a long shot hey! .


You haven't been communing with Misseur Taylor have you? he he he lol
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#1462026 - 18/04/2018 11:57 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 946
Loc: Cammeray
Is the Access scenario plausible? I can't recall seeing a pattern like that so am inclined to ignore it

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#1462028 - 18/04/2018 12:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
According to EC a cold pool develops over SE QLD i'm assuming a cold pool is characterised by a drop in 500mb geopotential height, then intensifies as it moves SE very rapidly.
EC run of the possible ECL

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#1462030 - 18/04/2018 12:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1605
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
yeah its nice Ashes....if its still there in 3 days, I will get excited. EC is the outlier, but it was with the last event too, and it paid up a pretty big.

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#1462036 - 18/04/2018 14:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2560
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Handy website. AMS Glossary of Meteorology. http://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Main_Page
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#1462041 - 18/04/2018 15:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Oh man has anyone had a look at the latest Gfs run it has a super cell dumped on the entire city then Ecl making Landfall around this area as well leaving with some areas in Sydney receiving 200+mm

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