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#1462042 - 18/04/2018 15:51 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looks very 1986’ish 😳😳😳😳

Gfs going for 200 - 500mm uhuh


Edited by Kino (18/04/2018 15:54)

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#1462044 - 18/04/2018 16:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Stormy3 Online   happy
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Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
GringosRain,Well said in your earlier comment,I hope this possible rain event comes off,only this time move about 20kms further inland,not like the last one.
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#1462046 - 18/04/2018 17:34 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
Perfect Storm Offline
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Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 983
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes

So generally the South-West is a sucker for storms but i don't mind the lack of destructiveness. Although East Coast Lows are our time to shine. Although many storm this season have moved in from the South-West so you would imagine us getting better rainfall. Case in point is Feb 26 Olympic Park recieved 81.8mm, Camden received 34.6mm and Bankstown with 41mm although this time the rainfall was moving off the ranges from a NW direction the system was from the South-West.
Edit lol EC is going for the first ECL of the season 27th April GFS was spurring a few in its models as well, lets see if the SST anomalies come into use after a large period of time cooking under a High Pressure ridge.



Interesting, I'd never particularly thought or heard of that. I was of the further south west you go the more the Illawarra escarpment provides more of a rain shadow so that's why some of those area's that are relatively close to the ocean but rainfall drops a little as you get closer to the escarpment as it suppresses rain from onshore events.

Though, in saying that the northern side has topography on its side for both rain and storms compared to this part. So I guess it's better all around with an increase in chances.

Glad you managed to get through the fire unscratched! I was dreading something like that occuring with this dry and not far from me earlier in the year the bushland as you turn off the Hume Highway onto the Horsley drive toward the M5 had a bushfire as well. Shame that it had to happen by the hands of people. frown

Wow, GFS looks pretty good. The land could quite easily absorb that. But it's one run so as quickly as it generated that forecast, it can forecast it back.

Quite nice seeing rainfall increase across EC and GFC. Hoping we see some h20 action in this part of the world before the switch to drying cold fronts.

Even if we managed to get some decent NW cloud bands it wouldn't provide enough rain in this part of the world to offset the dry so I'm hoping something comes to fruition from the easterly quadrants. smile
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#1462047 - 18/04/2018 17:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
Homer Online   content
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6040
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Oh man has anyone had a look at the latest Gfs run it has a super cell dumped on the entire city then Ecl making Landfall around this area as well leaving with some areas in Sydney receiving 200+mm


Whether this one comes off or not, I've said several times that this dry spell will end with a bang. I've seen it happen so many times in my lifetime.

I was very surprised at how overcast and cool today turned out to be.
After some early morning sunshine, the rest of the day remained 8/8 overcast and dull. Didn't even crack 21.
I see that the rainfall totals over the next few days have increased somewhat. Good news.


Edited by Homer (18/04/2018 17:42)

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#1462049 - 18/04/2018 18:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4490
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The GFS charts on this site don't show anything special. There are some showers in an Easterly flow, then a low forms off Brisbane on the 26th and rapidly moves away to the SE. The rainfall preductions for days 8-14 are not available on WZ (show as blank maps).

There's obviously another source of info that some here have access to.

-----

A second consecutive below average day for Sydney, 22.2 at OH, mostly 22-24 across the suburbs with a hot spot at Bankstown, which must have had sunny breaks.

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#1462052 - 18/04/2018 18:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Steve777]
Homer Online   content
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The GFS charts on this site don't show anything special.


Certainly nothing special Steve, but today's forecast for the next few days are certainly better than yesterday's.

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#1462053 - 18/04/2018 18:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Long Road Home Offline
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Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8637
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
It appears the bulk of the big rains are in the extended range, I use this GFS forecast map as a guide to see what's out there http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec7

Regardless of what the models say, as Homer mentioned prolonged dry westerly patterns like we've had always end with a significant event. May 2007 was a record dry and very warm month (much like this one so far) for a big chunk of NSW before the big barrage of ECLs in the June. My gut says there will be 50-100mm along the NSW coast in the next 2-3 weeks.

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#1462054 - 18/04/2018 19:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 494
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Actually Ec is going for a prolonged event first wave looks looks like a Coastal trough enhanced by a very marginal upper low (don't know if 570 dam counts 500mb geopotential) sitting across NSW. Then at 00z Apr 28 an ECL is formed although it is formed at the end of the run there a HPS sitting in the tasman sea wrapping around it and a definite upper low forming over the eastern half of NSW. If this comes off omg, but will be sad if all the models back away in the next few days.


Edited by ashestoashes (18/04/2018 19:09)

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#1462056 - 18/04/2018 19:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Toronto N.S.W
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#1462063 - 19/04/2018 07:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
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Loc: Toronto N.S.W
Back to the warmth again. Seen this same pattern most of April. Pilbara set to see 42's early next week. That heat already filtering out.
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#1462066 - 19/04/2018 08:00 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4490
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
We have a thunderstorm icon in the forecast but the rainfall has been wound back to 0-1 mm in the City, 3-8 in Penrith.

There was a heavy dew this morning, the first I've seen in a while. Also the coolest night for a while, 15.3 in OH, equal to the average (1981-2010). We did have a colder morning in March, even January.

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#1462067 - 19/04/2018 08:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2886
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Well, both EC & GFS have lost interest in next week now, however ACCESS has come in all guns blazing with what looks to be a big east coast flood event!


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (19/04/2018 08:02)
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#1462069 - 19/04/2018 08:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: CoastalStorm22]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 494
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Well, both EC & GFS have lost interest in next week now, however ACCESS has come in all guns blazing with what looks to be a big east coast flood event!

Well EC still has an ECL forming it just depends what conditions are present at that time for it's positioning and intensity and we know the weather to be fickle so we should have an eye on it.


Edited by ashestoashes (19/04/2018 08:16)

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#1462070 - 19/04/2018 08:17 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Knot Offline
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Registered: 01/05/2014
Posts: 2582
Loc: Toronto N.S.W
GIGO!
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#1462076 - 19/04/2018 08:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2841
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
All models favouring a significant change in our weather to a wet & cold phase - EC & ACCESS now really ramping up an ECL (esp ACCESS with substantial falls for Illawarra to Hunter 26 to 28 April (~ 300mm)

GFS may have gone cold on the ECL for now, but it pushes a moist unstable e/se across the coast for its whole outlook.

Now we wait & see how it locks in.


Edited by Kino (19/04/2018 08:39)

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#1462078 - 19/04/2018 08:41 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4490
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
My reading is that Access, EC and GFS all have a strong Easterly event affecting the Tasman Sea and its margins starting on or shortly after Anzac Day, including a strong low, but differ in details that make a big difference to what happens on land.

Access is full on, bringing heaps of rain to the coast and, via a linked low over land in the West of NSW, widespread falls across the State.

GFS has the low too far East to deliver a lot of rain to NSW. The low does a sort of drunkard's walk around the North Eastern Tasman, delivering a long period of warmish, wet weather to the coast with little or no rain penetrating West of the Divide.

In EC, the low moves quickly South with cool, dry S-SW winds in its wake.

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#1462080 - 19/04/2018 09:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Online   content
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6040
Loc: Dural
Looks like a few storms to the east and south of Bathurst.
Bathurst AP picked up 0.6 mm between 8-8.40 am.

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#1462081 - 19/04/2018 10:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2886
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Looks like a few storms to the east and south of Bathurst.
Bathurst AP picked up 0.6 mm between 8-8.40 am.


I was just looking at those towers from my level 7 window in Chatswood thinking it was a bit early for those yet!

Hopefully some action later today.


Edited by CoastalStorm22 (19/04/2018 10:14)
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#1462083 - 19/04/2018 10:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Online   content
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1666
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Great to see the models fiddling with some rain.
The last 3 days of the access run are about as perfect setup for a large flood event as you can get, with upper cold pool and secondary low inland at day 10 with strong high cradling the low and deep e/ne feed. The two basic scenarios I mentioned yesterday still in play, with the access option being the awesome version we need, with EC now the one bringing in the SW'rs too quickly....and the one that seems to get the upper hand a lot. Very interesting model runs coming up over the next 3 days...
Lets make some calls for the fun of it? Starting Anzac day -30th april. Any takers?

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#1462087 - 19/04/2018 12:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Online   content
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Hail reported in Lithgow just now.

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