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#1462764 - 29/04/2018 19:59 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Lol I don't why my parents insisted that the grass should be watered today. April is a weird month can sometimes bring the most destructive storms seen. Also feel that the Negative SAM helps, cold pools like this aren't rare but still unusual none the less at this time of the year.


Edited by ashestoashes (29/04/2018 20:00)

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#1462765 - 29/04/2018 19:59 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2455
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hopefully that blob over Nowra moves north too. As the cold pool moves north it’ll swing the winds more se’erly which should ramp up the rain with those bumper ssts

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#1462766 - 29/04/2018 20:02 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Some half decent falls accumulating in the Illawarra.

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#1462767 - 29/04/2018 20:07 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2455
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Plenty of friends reporting hail, missed me 😩😔😔

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#1462768 - 29/04/2018 20:12 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Looks like the rain is disintegrating, will be done soon unless there is a new pulse of convection.

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#1462769 - 29/04/2018 20:15 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
LuvsaStorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/01/2011
Posts: 52
Loc: Nowra, NSW
No hail down here, just torrential rain. Seems to be easing now. But bam! Another CG drops down to scare the crap out of us. Enjoy people.

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#1462770 - 29/04/2018 20:17 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
So, where did this come from?
There was nothing on the BOM's forecast this morning. Only this afternoon.
Nobody mentioned anything about this till the BOM put it out.
A nice surprise.


Edited by Homer (29/04/2018 20:18)

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#1462771 - 29/04/2018 20:17 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: LuvsaStorm]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: LuvsaStorm
No hail down here, just torrential rain. Seems to be easing now. But bam! Another CG drops down to scare the crap out of us. Enjoy people.


You lucky bugger!!!!

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#1462772 - 29/04/2018 20:17 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Originally Posted By: Kino
Plenty of friends reporting hail, missed me 😩😔😔


Which suburbs? Looks like Lake Heights/Berkeley could've got some. We got a little bit here.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1462773 - 29/04/2018 20:18 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Homer]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Homer
So, where did this come from?
There was nothing on the BOM's forecast this morning. Only this afternoon.

Homer it was there on the forecast this morning, 'chance of a thunderstorm'

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#1462774 - 29/04/2018 20:20 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: ashestoashes]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Originally Posted By: Homer
So, where did this come from?
There was nothing on the BOM's forecast this morning. Only this afternoon.

Homer it was there on the forecast this morning, 'chance of a thunderstorm'


Only on the later update I believe. Certainly wasn't there on the early morning forecast.

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#1462775 - 29/04/2018 20:21 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Homer]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 460
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Originally Posted By: Homer
So, where did this come from?
There was nothing on the BOM's forecast this morning. Only this afternoon.

Homer it was there on the forecast this morning, 'chance of a thunderstorm'


Only on the later update I believe. Certainly wasn't there on the early morning forecast.


Updated late morning from around 9-11am.

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#1462776 - 29/04/2018 20:24 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Originally Posted By: Homer
So, where did this come from?
There was nothing on the BOM's forecast this morning. Only this afternoon.
Nobody mentioned anything about this till the BOM put it out.
A nice surprise.


Mid level cold pool which you can see on Steve's post. I guess no one noticed the cold pool til BoM mentioned the prospect of a storm.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1462777 - 29/04/2018 20:25 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Rain has started just a moderate shower courtesy of the new line formed just south of me.

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#1462778 - 29/04/2018 20:30 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The forecast was updated to include the chance of a storm around 8:45 this morning, as I noted at the time. It wasn't in the initial forecast around 4:45AM.

I think that the rain band is shrinking as it approaches Sydney, although a severe thunderstorm warning ⚠️ (heavy rainfall) was issued at 8:00 for the Illawarra and adjacent parts of the Metro and Central Tablelands.



Edited by Steve777 (29/04/2018 20:31)

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#1462779 - 29/04/2018 20:42 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2455
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Kino
Plenty of friends reporting hail, missed me 😩😔😔


Which suburbs? Looks like Lake Heights/Berkeley could've got some. We got a little bit here.


Lake Heights, Keiraville, Gwynneville, Balgownie.

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#1462780 - 29/04/2018 20:42 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The forecast was updated to include the chance of a storm around 8:45 this morning, as I noted at the time. It wasn't in the initial forecast around 4:45AM.




Yep. That's what I was asking and that's what I said earlier. There are some fairly substantial falls occurring that weren't forecast just over 12 hours ago.
I'm curious to know why this upper level cold pool wasn't known about till this morning. Just asking, that's all.
And not to you Steve, but generally.

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#1462782 - 29/04/2018 20:50 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 878
Loc: Glenorie NSW
Seeing flashes now over mtns wsw of me. Tery hills would normally be an octave above wollongong so its interesting what a yellow core may hold this far north of appin. Id just be happy with the sound of rain on the roof at this stage

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#1462783 - 29/04/2018 20:51 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2015
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Was watching the Sky Weather channel Friday morning. They were showing a blob of heavy rain moving up the Illawarra coast Sunday evening. The position of the blob was exactly spot on as it is now.

Can't recall if storms were mentioned but they were certainly talking it up back then. So I have to give it to them - bullseye from over 48 hours out.
Gotta say the met guys on that channel call a spade a spade. If the models aren't agreeing they'll say that and throw their arms up.

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#1462784 - 29/04/2018 20:53 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Quagmelson Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/11/2001
Posts: 878
Loc: Glenorie NSW
....bondi beach may be in line for some hail soon on recent developments

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