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#1462301 - 21/04/2018 07:20 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
So EC and access gone to sh!t but gfs is bombing. I hate this.

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#1462306 - 21/04/2018 08:37 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Ec really the only outlier, ACCESS switched to deep Tasman Low with gale force winds for coastal areas. CMC & GFS bombing a true ECL. Interesting days ahead,

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#1462307 - 21/04/2018 08:46 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1551
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I think we are on the slide.... GFS 18z falling into line with the others. The front/trough coming through on Wednesday was always the key variable and as we get closer they have it pulling the low away.
Im not very confident they are going to go back from here. We really just needed a good cold pool to push down into the strong HPS with no fronts in sight.

I hope it changes back but Probably just be a few good showery busrts and then just scumtherlies for days.

Bring back 12z or Access from yesterday!

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#1462309 - 21/04/2018 10:51 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It does look like GFS versus the others, although I think that Sydney's warm, sunny 'Summer' has ended. Access and EC keep the major rain to the North coast and well out to sea. Sydney and nearby coastal areas are in for a prolonged period of warmish, wet weather, which might add up to a decent total over a week or so. Unfortunately it looks like there'll be little or nothing West of the Divide, however.

GFS brings the low in closer, but it stays further North than it was. I think its in retreat from big falls for our part of the State.

Still, Sydneysiders will be compaining about the miserable weather in no time. It will be cloudy, showery but not cold, although many will think that it is.

---

Aftr a coolish night,this morning's been mild with a mix and sunny and cloudy periods. It now looks like it might rain, but there's nothing on the radar near here. There is a shower cell near Lake Macquarie, however.

I just hosed the garden. Maybe I should wash the car.



Edited by Steve777 (21/04/2018 10:52)
Edit Reason: shower cell near Lake Macquarie

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#1462311 - 21/04/2018 10:57 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Perfect Storm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/10/2005
Posts: 943
Loc: Carramar, Sydney, NSW
Current modelling gives no hope of any reasonable rain and in fact majority of the continent appears bone dry in extended runs. I'm glad the SST spent all summer warming up only to have it rain itself out in the middle of the ocean.

The pattern continues.
_________________________
If life was a synoptic map it would probably be full of highs and lows.

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#1462312 - 21/04/2018 11:03 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Steve777]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 306
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...

TBH this is the map that I would believe the most. Looks like Stormy and Gringos will get their decent serve.

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#1462314 - 21/04/2018 11:24 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1551
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
not confident ashes. I really hope the upper low stays further west and encourages the surface low in that direction, but this mornings runs are pretty deflating.

I think tomorrow night we will pretty much know for sure whether its something big or just the standard garden variety rubbish.

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#1462329 - 21/04/2018 16:45 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Gfs has backed off again. But still leaving the door open.

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#1462331 - 21/04/2018 17:01 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Yes, GFS now looks like 'normal' rain for Sydney, although heavier further North. It does look to be long-lasting, however. The BOM forecast issued just now is consistent with this for the start of the period.

Forecast rainfall for April 25-28:

Newcastle: 26 - 70mm, Thunderstorm 26th
Sydney: a paltry 8 - 25mm

It seems to ramp up towards the end of the forecast period.

Anyway, it's goodbye to Summer 2017-2018 for Sydney, which started around November 25 and seems to have finished April 16 (dates of daily averages consistently 22+).



Edited by Steve777 (21/04/2018 17:02)
Edit Reason: tidy up

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#1462335 - 21/04/2018 17:42 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5701
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777

Anyway, it's goodbye to Summer 2017-2018 for Sydney


Thank goodness for that.
I don't mind a summer, but this one has been obscenely persistent.


Edited by Homer (21/04/2018 17:43)

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#1462347 - 21/04/2018 20:27 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looks like the potential is rapidly falling frown

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#1462354 - 21/04/2018 22:54 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 306
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
THAT'S ALL FOLKS!
We jumped the gun, i was so excited.

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#1462356 - 21/04/2018 22:57 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Not writing it off yet. Conditions still there that are conducive to an ECL. Models arenít always right.

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#1462357 - 21/04/2018 23:04 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 306
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Lol I was joking i'm still holding my hat out, I'm just interested to see the length of the trough that the Bureau is predicting a trough from PNG all the way to Tassie and a low of 1012 hpa sitting off Port Stephens.


Edited by ashestoashes (21/04/2018 23:13)

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#1462358 - 21/04/2018 23:12 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It hasn't rained in Sydney in 25,days, not even a fake 0.2. Fifty millimetres spread out over a week or so would now be an 'event', although I would prefer to get it in one afternoon with thunder and lightning.

It's definitely worth at least an ice cream vendor alert.

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#1462369 - 22/04/2018 11:00 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2788
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Looks like game over for this event I'm afraid. Next please.

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#1462370 - 22/04/2018 11:06 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4741
I think if you look at the current Newcastle radar, I think that's all we will see this week, big rain falling offshore.

And that will knock those SST around a bit.

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#1462372 - 22/04/2018 12:13 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4741
Radar looking better and better, might get a bit of a rain train happening!! A few distant rumbles too.

I've heard and seen more storms in this past week than I have seen all spring/summer and the first half of autumn put together!! crazy

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#1462374 - 22/04/2018 12:48 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 306
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Great see you're out of hibernation Eddy, eight in time for some action hope you get some great photos.

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#1462375 - 22/04/2018 13:42 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5701
Loc: Dural
Wow. Newy radar looks pretty colourful.
Can you send that 200 k's south Eddy? Pretty please?

Storms to our north. Storms to our south. Storms to our west.
Sydney? A big fat blob of zero.

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