So EC and access gone to sh!t but gfs is bombing. I hate this.

Ec really the only outlier, ACCESS switched to deep Tasman Low with gale force winds for coastal areas. CMC & GFS bombing a true ECL. Interesting days ahead,

I think we are on the slide.... GFS 18z falling into line with the others. The front/trough coming through on Wednesday was always the key variable and as we get closer they have it pulling the low away.
Im not very confident they are going to go back from here. We really just needed a good cold pool to push down into the strong HPS with no fronts in sight.

I hope it changes back but Probably just be a few good showery busrts and then just scumtherlies for days.

Bring back 12z or Access from yesterday!

It does look like GFS versus the others, although I think that Sydney's warm, sunny 'Summer' has ended. Access and EC keep the major rain to the North coast and well out to sea. Sydney and nearby coastal areas are in for a prolonged period of warmish, wet weather, which might add up to a decent total over a week or so. Unfortunately it looks like there'll be little or nothing West of the Divide, however.

GFS brings the low in closer, but it stays further North than it was. I think its in retreat from big falls for our part of the State.

Still, Sydneysiders will be compaining about the miserable weather in no time. It will be cloudy, showery but not cold, although many will think that it is.

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Aftr a coolish night,this morning's been mild with a mix and sunny and cloudy periods. It now looks like it might rain, but there's nothing on the radar near here. There is a shower cell near Lake Macquarie, however.

I just hosed the garden. Maybe I should wash the car.

Current modelling gives no hope of any reasonable rain and in fact majority of the continent appears bone dry in extended runs. I'm glad the SST spent all summer warming up only to have it rain itself out in the middle of the ocean.

The pattern continues.

TBH this is the map that I would believe the most. Looks like Stormy and Gringos will get their decent serve.

not confident ashes. I really hope the upper low stays further west and encourages the surface low in that direction, but this mornings runs are pretty deflating.

I think tomorrow night we will pretty much know for sure whether its something big or just the standard garden variety rubbish.

Gfs has backed off again. But still leaving the door open.

Yes, GFS now looks like 'normal' rain for Sydney, although heavier further North. It does look to be long-lasting, however. The BOM forecast issued just now is consistent with this for the start of the period.

Forecast rainfall for April 25-28:

Newcastle: 26 - 70mm, Thunderstorm 26th
Sydney: a paltry 8 - 25mm

It seems to ramp up towards the end of the forecast period.

Anyway, it's goodbye to Summer 2017-2018 for Sydney, which started around November 25 and seems to have finished April 16 (dates of daily averages consistently 22+).

Thank goodness for that.
I don't mind a summer, but this one has been obscenely persistent.

Looks like the potential is rapidly falling

THAT'S ALL FOLKS!
We jumped the gun, i was so excited.

Not writing it off yet. Conditions still there that are conducive to an ECL. Models aren’t always right.

Lol I was joking i'm still holding my hat out, I'm just interested to see the length of the trough that the Bureau is predicting a trough from PNG all the way to Tassie and a low of 1012 hpa sitting off Port Stephens.

It hasn't rained in Sydney in 25,days, not even a fake 0.2. Fifty millimetres spread out over a week or so would now be an 'event', although I would prefer to get it in one afternoon with thunder and lightning.

It's definitely worth at least an ice cream vendor alert.

Looks like game over for this event I'm afraid. Next please.

I think if you look at the current Newcastle radar, I think that's all we will see this week, big rain falling offshore.

And that will knock those SST around a bit.

Radar looking better and better, might get a bit of a rain train happening!! A few distant rumbles too.

I've heard and seen more storms in this past week than I have seen all spring/summer and the first half of autumn put together!!

Great see you're out of hibernation Eddy, eight in time for some action hope you get some great photos.

Wow. Newy radar looks pretty colourful.
Can you send that 200 k's south Eddy? Pretty please?

Storms to our north. Storms to our south. Storms to our west.
Sydney? A big fat blob of zero.