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#1462197 - 20/04/2018 10:53 SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
I’ll leave it to those with the expierince to adequately name and describe the potential set up, but there is a degree of “reliable” model agreement for a low/high interaction to push a lot of moisture onto the coast with upper level cool temps. Also some potential that a low will cross the coast somewhere between Bundaberg and the nsw/vic border.

Early days and it could go either way, but it is undeniable that there is some significant potential.

Access this morning is particularly interested, no other models are this excited.
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/qUaVr4J.jpg


Sst anomaly shows a lot of warmth to provide energy and moisture should something occur.


Edited by Seabreeze (25/04/2018 16:37)
Edit Reason: title

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#1462200 - 20/04/2018 11:04 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Access


Edited by Blowin' (20/04/2018 11:05)

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#1462209 - 20/04/2018 11:52 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 992
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I am not sure if this is appropriate here, but I am out here in Texas for a week and see a sharp increase in the instability. We have one cell to our north and one to our south, just rumbling away! Getting quite dark too. Looking at the radar, the entire inland SE QLD area looks to be firing off.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1462211 - 20/04/2018 11:58 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3383
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yea, just looked at all them pretty colours on Marburg, people need to remember Marburg undercooks rainfall rates. Dark blue likely yellow & yellow likely orange.
Black, run like hell! ;~}

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#1462212 - 20/04/2018 12:04 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yes, let’s say the event has started! Certainly a solid pre-wetting before the main event.
A fair few heavy slow moving showers around...

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#1462213 - 20/04/2018 12:06 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 992
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Looking at windy.com, looks like a low developes off the NE NSW coast in about 3-6 days. If this holds true, I wonder where it goes from there?
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1462214 - 20/04/2018 12:09 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mike Hauber Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3158
Loc: Buderim
Seems to be fairly consistent agreement we get an upper level low over SEQ at about 7 days time. Interest Access is a bit of an outlier pushing the upper system further north, which forms the low out to sea, but can tend to push it towards the coast along the SE flank of the upper low.

Another variable is the strength of the Tasman and Bite high pressures. Looks like there could be a low/trough between these two highs. EC's latest run has the Tasman sea high stronger which keeps the surface trough/low closer to the coast, whereas GFS has the Tasman sea high weaker, Bite high stronger, so more southerly flow onto the coast, and low pressure more out to sea.

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#1462215 - 20/04/2018 12:10 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
A few on TT (ec and navgem I think) have it coming north on the back of the high

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#1462216 - 20/04/2018 12:16 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4616
Loc: Wynnum
Thunder heard to S and E of Wynnum Nth at 1205.
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#1462219 - 20/04/2018 12:34 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3383
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Some serious looking cloud buildage happening to the W & NW, very dark grey.
Formation of 3 Apachies flying home straight into it. Gonabe a fun ride.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (20/04/2018 12:37)

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#1462220 - 20/04/2018 12:38 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Thunder at Caloundra

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#1462223 - 20/04/2018 12:44 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1195
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Thunder just heard in Kingaroy too, radar is the best its looked in several weeks. All very pulsey though, nothing seems to be getting organised and steering winds very weak at best. Just gotta hope a nice little cell forms right over the top of us.
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#1462225 - 20/04/2018 12:47 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 94
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Thunder at Caloundra

Lightning in the valley... wink

Only about 4mm so far, but it's moving slowly.
Temp has dropped a few degrees here as well.
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#1462226 - 20/04/2018 12:54 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
SteveB93 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/12/2016
Posts: 13
Loc: Wellington Point, Brisbane Bay...
Been absolutely pouring in the city for the past 40 minutes, the rain gauge at work showing 28mm despite the boms only showing 4.8mm.

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#1462227 - 20/04/2018 13:00 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3383
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
STW for heavy rain in a small area west of Maroochydore. 57mm in 1hr on Bald Knob.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (20/04/2018 13:10)

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#1462233 - 20/04/2018 14:02 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3383
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
A very noisy piece of work just to the south of us. Only light rain atm.

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#1462235 - 20/04/2018 14:15 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 992
Loc: Warwick, QLD
A little light rain here in Texas lasting approx 20 min. Much heavier around the town centre. Back in Warwick, some shower activity but nothing heavy.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1462238 - 20/04/2018 14:44 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
STW for heavy rain in a small area west of Maroochydore. 57mm in 1hr on Bald Knob.


Thanks for the heads up on this MElf. I rushed home when I saw this because anything over 50mm in an hour is always a risky thing with us next to the creek here. Anyway, all good.
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#1462240 - 20/04/2018 14:50 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Blowin' Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 919
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yeah just came past, a few big rocks on your lawn IW!

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#1462241 - 20/04/2018 14:56 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Are you sure they're not our chickens? wink
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