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#1462316 - 21/04/2018 13:05 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3383
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
4mm out here till 9am from yesterdays thundery showers.
Plenty blue marks on Marburg atm, hope it keeps up.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/04/2018 13:07)

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#1462317 - 21/04/2018 13:37 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5242
If the scenarios where the surface trough and any lows deepens to our south and/or offshore, I still suspect the majority of the rainfall in SE QLD will probably just be from scattered showers and pop-up thunderstorms (due to the instability from the cooling midlevels) which would lead any decent rainfall being patchy rather than widespread uniform steady soaking rain... unless of course the surface low forms further north than expected.

Any areas to the south of the surface feature should get better rainfall with the more moist onshore component to the flow, low level wind convergence and enhanced upmotion whether it be somewhere on the NSW coast or the far southeast corner of SE QLD.

Some places could get some small hail too given the cooling midlevels and instability.

The currently forecast positioning of the upper low almost reminds me of a setup we had around a year or two ago where a big upper low sat just inland of the SE QLD coast for days but all it ended up producing was a scattering of showers and some thunderstorms which circulated around it rather than widespread heavy rain despite an onshore flow.

I often watch the ICON model these days as well as the others since it seems to be fairly good on average and I note it's still going for a surface low to form early next week and come ashore near the QLD/NSW border with a bigger low forming in the trough well off the NSW coast later in the week.

But could just as easily be a deepening of the surface trough instead of a distinct low or a low/s forming anywhere along the trough.

Here's the latest accumulating rainfall scenarios for Brisbane from a range of models including EC, GFS, ACCESS-G, etc:



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#1462318 - 21/04/2018 13:56 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5194
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


I often watch the ICON model these days as well as the others since it seems to be fairly good on average and I note it's still going for a surface low to form early next week and come ashore near the QLD/NSW border with a bigger low forming in the trough well off the NSW coast later in the week.



Funny you should say that, I've started following ICON this event as it has been the most consistent of the models. Would love some feedback on its accuracy. Seems to be going pretty well so far this event, great to have a new model to follow. Appears this one runs a bit differently to the others? For the record here is the latest ICON total rain forecast for this event, has not moved from this for a good number of runs:


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#1462319 - 21/04/2018 14:03 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: KevD]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2109
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Thanks for sharing Ken. I too would be interested to know how ICON stacks up compared to the others.

Unfortunately there seems to be developing model agreement that this event will be fairly non-existent. Some sort of surface trough or small low hangs around far NE NSW, but most of the falls will be offshore or just on the far coastal strip. The big low that could have follows is embedded in the trough and zooms off to NZ. Predictable outcome, models just gave us a good tease.

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#1462320 - 21/04/2018 14:06 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10382
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
2.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a shower yesterday evening.
Thunder/lightning occurring locally in nearshore/offshore storm activity yesterday evening and then again from offshore activity during the early-mid morning hours today (woke me up a number of times despite being 25-35kms away and out at sea).
Thunder heard during the past half hour from some offshore storm activity.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
August 2018 Rainfall: 1.6mm (August Avg. 79.4mm) // August 2018 Raindays: 1 (August Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 984.0mm (Jan-Aug Avg. 1094.7mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 78 (Jan-Aug Avg. 93.6 raindays)

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#1462321 - 21/04/2018 14:19 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3161
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Hows that graph its got EC up there with CMC.

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#1462322 - 21/04/2018 14:38 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7050
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
For what it's worth, ICON was rubbish all summer, imo.

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#1462323 - 21/04/2018 14:42 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5242
I haven't been checking ICON for SE QLD/NE NSW but I do clearly remember it was one of the first ones to nail the highly unpredictable paths of the TC's up north a number of times, even ahead of EC on occasion.
It has high resolution for a global model, has 3-hourly forecasts out to 180hrs and despite that, runs are available earlier than many other models.

I don't know too much about the objective skill stats of ICON though but I do remember seeing one graph that suggested its overall skill still wasn't as high as EC's.

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#1462328 - 21/04/2018 16:45 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 746
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thundering down here again just off the coast sth Tweed area. One thing this feature has given us is some awesome storm clouds especially on the coast . . Lovin' it

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#1462333 - 21/04/2018 17:13 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4990
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
2.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a shower yesterday evening.
Thunder/lightning occurring locally in nearshore/offshore storm activity yesterday evening and then again from offshore activity during the early-mid morning hours today (woke me up a number of times despite being 25-35kms away and out at sea).
Thunder heard during the past half hour from some offshore storm activity.


I watched plenty of storms develop here just off the coast then march northwards yesterday afternoon evening, certainly some impressive structure.
This cell would have been between Seal Rocks and Forster.
IMG_6937 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

Spot the bolt.
IMG_7127 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 0.5mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1462334 - 21/04/2018 17:27 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 598
Loc: Bardon 4065
Very nice EddyG - a couple of keepers there.
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#1462337 - 21/04/2018 18:03 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 244
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Top pics E.G. Looks just like the one off the Goldy right now.
How does it look from your perspective TWEEDSTORM, looked awesome right on sunset while I was in the yard from on the hill in Tallai.


Edited by DDstorm (21/04/2018 18:03)
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#1462338 - 21/04/2018 18:12 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5881
Loc: Dural
Great photos Eddy. Good pelican capture as well!! smile

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#1462344 - 21/04/2018 20:15 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 746
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Sorry just noticed ya post DDstorm, that storm on the coast near us was a beauty for photographs, I hot several on my phone it's a shame Gleno wasn't around or maybe he was.I just got back from a dinner in Coolangatta and after it we headed to the lookout at the top of Dbah and got treated to an unbelievable lightning show from that same storm massive claps of thunder with it.Hope ya saw some of what I did.

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#1462345 - 21/04/2018 20:16 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5308
Loc: Tweed Coast
Awesome shots Eddy!

I snapped these off Cabarita Beach this evening straight off the phone. Certainly some nice clouds around the place!





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#1462346 - 21/04/2018 20:22 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1514
Loc: Australia
Spectacular shots Eddy and Ben . I was going to head south of the border but got distracted from a phone call. I took some happy snaps from my local lake.

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#1462350 - 21/04/2018 21:21 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4990
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks guys, much appreciated. Great shots too Ben!!
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 0.5mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1462351 - 21/04/2018 21:41 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10382
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Fantastic photos from both of you, yesterday evening Eddy (nice score with the distant bolt!) and this evening Ben.

1.6mm from an afternoon shower here. Had a brief storm develop only about 6-7kms west of here this afternoon, didn't hit here, moved NNW toward Macksville and Bellingen. The vast majority of lightning has remained nearshore and offshore throughout today on the northern MNC though.
A cluster of showers/storms moving up the coast at sunset, looking NNE/NE (the updrafts in the left half were offshore of Nambucca and Urunga, eventually coming ashore near Coffs) -
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
August 2018 Rainfall: 1.6mm (August Avg. 79.4mm) // August 2018 Raindays: 1 (August Avg. 8.1 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 984.0mm (Jan-Aug Avg. 1094.7mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 78 (Jan-Aug Avg. 93.6 raindays)

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#1462355 - 21/04/2018 22:54 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1097
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Brutal honesty from mega... love it.

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#1462361 - 22/04/2018 08:16 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 746
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thor really on holidays here in the Tweed area we got big rumbles of thunder on the coast here again! This is the 4th thunder day here in the past week.Unbelievable and the event is not over yet

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