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#1462517 - 25/04/2018 13:01 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Light steady drizzle just startin here, O'l Marburg not showin much.
BUGGA, the washin
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#1462522 - 25/04/2018 14:51 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


I often watch the ICON model these days as well as the others since it seems to be fairly good on average and I note it's still going for a surface low to form early next week and come ashore near the QLD/NSW border with a bigger low forming in the trough well off the NSW coast later in the week.



Funny you should say that, I've started following ICON this event as it has been the most consistent of the models. Would love some feedback on its accuracy. Seems to be going pretty well so far this event, great to have a new model to follow. Appears this one runs a bit differently to the others? For the record here is the latest ICON total rain forecast for this event, has not moved from this for a good number of runs:



Here's what's happened so far. 1st image is the observed rainfall in the 96hrs up to 9am this morning, 2nd clip is the ICON forecast using the 12z run prior to when we were talking about it, and the 3rd clip is the MSLP analysis (bearing in mind that the isobar spacing is 4hpa on the MSLP analysis charts and 2hpa on the ICON charts via Tropical Tidbits so the isobars will appear a bit more tightly packed on the forecast chart compared to the analysis charts).
At time of writing this, the surface low is just off the SE QLD/NE NSW border coast.

The model overdid the low's intensity and timing was out by a day but accurately predicted the positioning and general movement of the system.
The same run of GFS had a deep trough instead with a low starting to form well off the NSW central/mid north coast by this time:







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#1462529 - 25/04/2018 16:09 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10357
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
34.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. The rain largely cleared overnight, though some light rain fell again around dawn/sunrise.
Laurieton was the wettest place with 81mm in the 24hr to 9am period, with a few other locations in the Port-Hastings area recording 50-60mm falls over the same period.

No rain here since what fell around dawn/sunrise, but maybe a window of opportunity for a shower or two this evening.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2018 Rainfall: 95.8mm (June Avg. 139.9mm) // June 2018 Raindays: 8 (June Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 884.6mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 939.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 69 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1462535 - 25/04/2018 17:09 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
I know mt Stapleton radar has a planed outage
Just seems its out of action more than it works
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#1462545 - 25/04/2018 19:12 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Our light drizzle earlier this arvo, actually produced 11 mm.
Best total since the second day of this thread. Noice!!
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