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#1462197 - 20/04/2018 10:53 SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 904
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
I’ll leave it to those with the expierince to adequately name and describe the potential set up, but there is a degree of “reliable” model agreement for a low/high interaction to push a lot of moisture onto the coast with upper level cool temps. Also some potential that a low will cross the coast somewhere between Bundaberg and the nsw/vic border.

Early days and it could go either way, but it is undeniable that there is some significant potential.

Access this morning is particularly interested, no other models are this excited.
[IMG]http://i.imgur.com/qUaVr4J.jpg


Sst anomaly shows a lot of warmth to provide energy and moisture should something occur.


Edited by Seabreeze (25/04/2018 16:37)
Edit Reason: title

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#1462200 - 20/04/2018 11:04 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 904
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Access


Edited by Blowin' (20/04/2018 11:05)

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#1462209 - 20/04/2018 11:52 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Online   content
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Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I am not sure if this is appropriate here, but I am out here in Texas for a week and see a sharp increase in the instability. We have one cell to our north and one to our south, just rumbling away! Getting quite dark too. Looking at the radar, the entire inland SE QLD area looks to be firing off.
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#1462211 - 20/04/2018 11:58 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Yea, just looked at all them pretty colours on Marburg, people need to remember Marburg undercooks rainfall rates. Dark blue likely yellow & yellow likely orange.
Black, run like hell! ;~}

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#1462212 - 20/04/2018 12:04 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 904
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yes, let’s say the event has started! Certainly a solid pre-wetting before the main event.
A fair few heavy slow moving showers around...

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#1462213 - 20/04/2018 12:06 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Online   content
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Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Looking at windy.com, looks like a low developes off the NE NSW coast in about 3-6 days. If this holds true, I wonder where it goes from there?
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#1462214 - 20/04/2018 12:09 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3086
Loc: Buderim
Seems to be fairly consistent agreement we get an upper level low over SEQ at about 7 days time. Interest Access is a bit of an outlier pushing the upper system further north, which forms the low out to sea, but can tend to push it towards the coast along the SE flank of the upper low.

Another variable is the strength of the Tasman and Bite high pressures. Looks like there could be a low/trough between these two highs. EC's latest run has the Tasman sea high stronger which keeps the surface trough/low closer to the coast, whereas GFS has the Tasman sea high weaker, Bite high stronger, so more southerly flow onto the coast, and low pressure more out to sea.

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#1462215 - 20/04/2018 12:10 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
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Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
A few on TT (ec and navgem I think) have it coming north on the back of the high

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#1462216 - 20/04/2018 12:16 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4531
Loc: Wynnum
Thunder heard to S and E of Wynnum Nth at 1205.
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#1462219 - 20/04/2018 12:34 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Some serious looking cloud buildage happening to the W & NW, very dark grey.
Formation of 3 Apachies flying home straight into it. Gonabe a fun ride.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (20/04/2018 12:37)

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#1462220 - 20/04/2018 12:38 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
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Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Thunder at Caloundra

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#1462223 - 20/04/2018 12:44 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
LightningGus Offline
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Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1187
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Thunder just heard in Kingaroy too, radar is the best its looked in several weeks. All very pulsey though, nothing seems to be getting organised and steering winds very weak at best. Just gotta hope a nice little cell forms right over the top of us.
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#1462225 - 20/04/2018 12:47 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
wetdreams Offline
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Registered: 25/10/2010
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Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Originally Posted By: Blowin'
Thunder at Caloundra

Lightning in the valley... wink

Only about 4mm so far, but it's moving slowly.
Temp has dropped a few degrees here as well.
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#1462226 - 20/04/2018 12:54 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
SteveB93 Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 29/12/2016
Posts: 13
Loc: Wellington Point, Brisbane Bay...
Been absolutely pouring in the city for the past 40 minutes, the rain gauge at work showing 28mm despite the boms only showing 4.8mm.

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#1462227 - 20/04/2018 13:00 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
STW for heavy rain in a small area west of Maroochydore. 57mm in 1hr on Bald Knob.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (20/04/2018 13:10)

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#1462233 - 20/04/2018 14:02 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
A very noisy piece of work just to the south of us. Only light rain atm.

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#1462235 - 20/04/2018 14:15 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Online   content
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Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Warwick, QLD
A little light rain here in Texas lasting approx 20 min. Much heavier around the town centre. Back in Warwick, some shower activity but nothing heavy.
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#1462238 - 20/04/2018 14:44 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Mad Elf #1.5]
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Originally Posted By: Mad Elf #1.5
STW for heavy rain in a small area west of Maroochydore. 57mm in 1hr on Bald Knob.


Thanks for the heads up on this MElf. I rushed home when I saw this because anything over 50mm in an hour is always a risky thing with us next to the creek here. Anyway, all good.
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#1462240 - 20/04/2018 14:50 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 904
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yeah just came past, a few big rocks on your lawn IW!

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#1462241 - 20/04/2018 14:56 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Inclement Weather Offline
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Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
Are you sure they're not our chickens? wink
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#1462242 - 20/04/2018 15:00 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
No worries IW, hope all went well.
Sun is back out with dark clouds & rumbles all around.

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#1462250 - 20/04/2018 15:35 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Inclement Weather]
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 904
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Originally Posted By: Inclement Weather
Are you sure they're not our chickens? wink


Haha, they will have hopefully found higher ground.

Latest GFS has the low offshore and us getting a southerly bast and some wet fish off Byron bay - port Macquarie... but gfs seems to generally have a different view on how this event could run...

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#1462251 - 20/04/2018 15:35 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
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Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Rumbles here at Tallai. Noice
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#1462253 - 20/04/2018 15:56 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Jaeger Offline
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Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 82
Loc: Canberra/Brisbane
There was a massive clap of thunder about 10 minutes ago (3:40pm) at Ferny Hills; some shrieks from the neighbourhood kids a few seconds before it suggests a big, somewhat distant, positive bolt. (No obvious candidate on LightningMaps.org)

19.5mm so far - 17mm in 15 minutes around 1pm.

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#1462254 - 20/04/2018 16:39 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4531
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 3.0mm till 1630.
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#1462256 - 20/04/2018 16:41 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Inclement Weather Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 07/03/2006
Posts: 5225
Loc: Diamond Valley
The latest extended outlook from the BoM is cautious regarding the uncertainty of this upcoming setup towards the end of next week:

Quote:
The upper low is likely to remain slow-moving over southeast Queensland, although possibly weakening later in the week. The surface trough remains about the far southern east coast or northern New South Wales, but more likely is expected to slip south offshore of New South Wales, although there is some uncertainty associated with the location of these systems. A low may develop along the trough during the period, but this is most likely to be off the northern New South Wales coast, limiting the chance of significant weather over southeast Queensland. Regardless of this development, at least some instability is expected to persist over southeastern Queensland, with showers and a few thunderstorms likely to continue.
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#1462259 - 20/04/2018 17:14 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 904
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Yep and the models seem to agree

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#1462260 - 20/04/2018 17:18 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Fat zilch here all day.Amazing how everything has been forming on the Queensland side of the border Zero storms /showers other side of the border line

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#1462261 - 20/04/2018 17:55 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Wow, tonights WATL really taken the blowdryer to our area. Southern coastal areas & N/NSW gonado well, again!

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#1462262 - 20/04/2018 17:55 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
tsunami Offline
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Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Raining here
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#1462267 - 20/04/2018 19:04 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Nice little storm just popped up ouf of nothing down here producing some nice lightning and thunder.Sure is an unstable atmosphere to think I was looking at overcast and mid level crud only 2hours earlier.

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#1462269 - 20/04/2018 19:42 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Blowin' Offline
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Registered: 23/08/2014
Posts: 904
Loc: Diamond Valley, Sunshine Coast
Hello wet fish, goodbye low
I just started the thread to ensure it doesn’t rain...

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#1462271 - 20/04/2018 21:00 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3131
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
There will be something to watch thread is worthy. Se'ly rain trains.

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#1462281 - 20/04/2018 22:18 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Jaeger]
BrisWeatherNerd Offline
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Registered: 09/07/2012
Posts: 936
Loc: Weather Nerd Central, Kedron, ...
Originally Posted By: Jaeger
There was a massive clap of thunder about 10 minutes ago (3:40pm) at Ferny Hills; some shrieks from the neighbourhood kids a few seconds before it suggests a big, somewhat distant, positive bolt. (No obvious candidate on LightningMaps.org)

19.5mm so far - 17mm in 15 minutes around 1pm.


Yeah, I saw that one as I was driving from Clayfield to Kedron. It was one solo bolt. I kept an eye out for more but didn't see any. I think it was out over Albany Creek way.
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#1462299 - 21/04/2018 06:16 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
BOM forecast showing only showing Tuesday up to 15mm , rest of the week hardly worth mentioning

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#1462302 - 21/04/2018 07:49 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Adam Ant Offline
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Registered: 28/10/2003
Posts: 1031
Loc: West Toowoomba
15mm for me. Thats increased my annual total by 20%. Its been a dry start to the year for me

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#1462304 - 21/04/2018 08:10 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
retired weather man Offline
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Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4531
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 4.0mm
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#1462305 - 21/04/2018 08:26 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ben Offline
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Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5306
Loc: Tweed Coast
Lots of thunder and lightning in the Tweed area last night! However, nothing all that visible lightning wise. But certainly miss these kinds of nights, its been a while since we've had one!

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#1462308 - 21/04/2018 09:08 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Online   content
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Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Only a couple or mm worth of rain yesterday at my end of town in Warwick. So far a little over 4mm for the month. Yes Adam Ant, a very dry year so far for sure. If April continues like this, it would make it the 13th straight month of well below normal rainfall for me. Simply amazing!
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#1462310 - 21/04/2018 10:53 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 594
Loc: Bardon 4065
9 mm here from some showers and rain yesterday. A few loud thunderclaps was an an added bonus.

Mods: do we need to add some dates to this thread?


Edited by Foehn Correspondent (21/04/2018 10:53)
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#1462316 - 21/04/2018 13:05 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
4mm out here till 9am from yesterdays thundery showers.
Plenty blue marks on Marburg atm, hope it keeps up.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (21/04/2018 13:07)

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#1462317 - 21/04/2018 13:37 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
If the scenarios where the surface trough and any lows deepens to our south and/or offshore, I still suspect the majority of the rainfall in SE QLD will probably just be from scattered showers and pop-up thunderstorms (due to the instability from the cooling midlevels) which would lead any decent rainfall being patchy rather than widespread uniform steady soaking rain... unless of course the surface low forms further north than expected.

Any areas to the south of the surface feature should get better rainfall with the more moist onshore component to the flow, low level wind convergence and enhanced upmotion whether it be somewhere on the NSW coast or the far southeast corner of SE QLD.

Some places could get some small hail too given the cooling midlevels and instability.

The currently forecast positioning of the upper low almost reminds me of a setup we had around a year or two ago where a big upper low sat just inland of the SE QLD coast for days but all it ended up producing was a scattering of showers and some thunderstorms which circulated around it rather than widespread heavy rain despite an onshore flow.

I often watch the ICON model these days as well as the others since it seems to be fairly good on average and I note it's still going for a surface low to form early next week and come ashore near the QLD/NSW border with a bigger low forming in the trough well off the NSW coast later in the week.

But could just as easily be a deepening of the surface trough instead of a distinct low or a low/s forming anywhere along the trough.

Here's the latest accumulating rainfall scenarios for Brisbane from a range of models including EC, GFS, ACCESS-G, etc:



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#1462318 - 21/04/2018 13:56 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
KevD Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5180
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


I often watch the ICON model these days as well as the others since it seems to be fairly good on average and I note it's still going for a surface low to form early next week and come ashore near the QLD/NSW border with a bigger low forming in the trough well off the NSW coast later in the week.



Funny you should say that, I've started following ICON this event as it has been the most consistent of the models. Would love some feedback on its accuracy. Seems to be going pretty well so far this event, great to have a new model to follow. Appears this one runs a bit differently to the others? For the record here is the latest ICON total rain forecast for this event, has not moved from this for a good number of runs:


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#1462319 - 21/04/2018 14:03 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: KevD]
Nature's Fury Offline
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Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2091
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Thanks for sharing Ken. I too would be interested to know how ICON stacks up compared to the others.

Unfortunately there seems to be developing model agreement that this event will be fairly non-existent. Some sort of surface trough or small low hangs around far NE NSW, but most of the falls will be offshore or just on the far coastal strip. The big low that could have follows is embedded in the trough and zooms off to NZ. Predictable outcome, models just gave us a good tease.

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#1462320 - 21/04/2018 14:06 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
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Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10357
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
2.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a shower yesterday evening.
Thunder/lightning occurring locally in nearshore/offshore storm activity yesterday evening and then again from offshore activity during the early-mid morning hours today (woke me up a number of times despite being 25-35kms away and out at sea).
Thunder heard during the past half hour from some offshore storm activity.
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South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2018 Rainfall: 95.8mm (June Avg. 139.9mm) // June 2018 Raindays: 8 (June Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 884.6mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 939.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 69 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1462321 - 21/04/2018 14:19 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Steve O Offline
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Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3131
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Hows that graph its got EC up there with CMC.

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#1462322 - 21/04/2018 14:38 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6987
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
For what it's worth, ICON was rubbish all summer, imo.

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#1462323 - 21/04/2018 14:42 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
I haven't been checking ICON for SE QLD/NE NSW but I do clearly remember it was one of the first ones to nail the highly unpredictable paths of the TC's up north a number of times, even ahead of EC on occasion.
It has high resolution for a global model, has 3-hourly forecasts out to 180hrs and despite that, runs are available earlier than many other models.

I don't know too much about the objective skill stats of ICON though but I do remember seeing one graph that suggested its overall skill still wasn't as high as EC's.

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#1462328 - 21/04/2018 16:45 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thundering down here again just off the coast sth Tweed area. One thing this feature has given us is some awesome storm clouds especially on the coast . . Lovin' it

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#1462333 - 21/04/2018 17:13 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4892
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Seabreeze
2.0mm in the 24hrs to 9am from a shower yesterday evening.
Thunder/lightning occurring locally in nearshore/offshore storm activity yesterday evening and then again from offshore activity during the early-mid morning hours today (woke me up a number of times despite being 25-35kms away and out at sea).
Thunder heard during the past half hour from some offshore storm activity.


I watched plenty of storms develop here just off the coast then march northwards yesterday afternoon evening, certainly some impressive structure.
This cell would have been between Seal Rocks and Forster.
IMG_6937 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

Spot the bolt.
IMG_7127 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
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Rainfall
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YTD - 692.4mm

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#1462334 - 21/04/2018 17:27 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Foehn Correspondent Offline
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Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 594
Loc: Bardon 4065
Very nice EddyG - a couple of keepers there.
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#1462337 - 21/04/2018 18:03 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
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Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Top pics E.G. Looks just like the one off the Goldy right now.
How does it look from your perspective TWEEDSTORM, looked awesome right on sunset while I was in the yard from on the hill in Tallai.


Edited by DDstorm (21/04/2018 18:03)
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#1462338 - 21/04/2018 18:12 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Homer Online   content
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5806
Loc: Dural
Great photos Eddy. Good pelican capture as well!! smile

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#1462344 - 21/04/2018 20:15 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Sorry just noticed ya post DDstorm, that storm on the coast near us was a beauty for photographs, I hot several on my phone it's a shame Gleno wasn't around or maybe he was.I just got back from a dinner in Coolangatta and after it we headed to the lookout at the top of Dbah and got treated to an unbelievable lightning show from that same storm massive claps of thunder with it.Hope ya saw some of what I did.

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#1462345 - 21/04/2018 20:16 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ben Offline
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Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5306
Loc: Tweed Coast
Awesome shots Eddy!

I snapped these off Cabarita Beach this evening straight off the phone. Certainly some nice clouds around the place!





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#1462346 - 21/04/2018 20:22 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
Spectacular shots Eddy and Ben . I was going to head south of the border but got distracted from a phone call. I took some happy snaps from my local lake.

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#1462350 - 21/04/2018 21:21 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4892
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks guys, much appreciated. Great shots too Ben!!
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YTD - 692.4mm

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#1462351 - 21/04/2018 21:41 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10357
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Fantastic photos from both of you, yesterday evening Eddy (nice score with the distant bolt!) and this evening Ben.

1.6mm from an afternoon shower here. Had a brief storm develop only about 6-7kms west of here this afternoon, didn't hit here, moved NNW toward Macksville and Bellingen. The vast majority of lightning has remained nearshore and offshore throughout today on the northern MNC though.
A cluster of showers/storms moving up the coast at sunset, looking NNE/NE (the updrafts in the left half were offshore of Nambucca and Urunga, eventually coming ashore near Coffs) -
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2018 Rainfall: 95.8mm (June Avg. 139.9mm) // June 2018 Raindays: 8 (June Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 884.6mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 939.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 69 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1462355 - 21/04/2018 22:54 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
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Brutal honesty from mega... love it.

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#1462361 - 22/04/2018 08:16 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
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Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Thor really on holidays here in the Tweed area we got big rumbles of thunder on the coast here again! This is the 4th thunder day here in the past week.Unbelievable and the event is not over yet

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#1462362 - 22/04/2018 08:34 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Was wondering why nothing on the lightning detector but it looks like it packed it in yesterday

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#1462363 - 22/04/2018 09:06 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
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Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Saw the distance top flashes from those storms, just not enough elevation to see the underside from Tallai, but it had a huge vertical structure.
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#1462365 - 22/04/2018 10:24 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
Nice one Seabreeze, it seems these offshore storms are extending down a long way towards Sydney.

I'm curious as to why these type of storms die off fairly quickly compared to your typical summer storms.

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#1462366 - 22/04/2018 10:28 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
They're good examples of pulse thunderstorms which don't last long because the weak shear means they don't tilt over that much and their rain-cooled downdraft eventually chokes their own updraft.

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#1462367 - 22/04/2018 10:35 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Wow, interesting, learn something everyday good stuff!

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#1462376 - 22/04/2018 13:56 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3086
Loc: Buderim
Originally Posted By: gleno71
Nice one Seabreeze, it seems these offshore storms are extending down a long way towards Sydney.

I'm curious as to why these type of storms die off fairly quickly compared to your typical summer storms.


I think some of these ocean shower/storms can be quite long lived, but do tend to be short lived once/if they cross the coast. This time of year conditions are much better over ocean for storms, with a warmer ocean and cooler land. Compared to spring/summer with warmer land, cooler ocean. Storms may then be reasonably long lived over land but can die quickly once they go out to sea.


As best I can tell trawling through some radar archives the cells Ben shot started with a shower/storm off Smokey Cape at about 10:30am. It then moved mostly north along and slightly west towards the coast until crossing the coast near Balina around 4pm. Activity to the NE then built into the cells I suspect Ben photographed, and eventually crossed the coast near Caboolture and died around 8pm. Plenty of individual cells pulsing along the way, but all are quite closerly linked along the way. With perhaps the crossing at Balina the closest to a break, where one storm cell as it came ashore, and kicked of a new one on an outflow boundary or similar to the NE. The new cell is still touching the edge of the old cell on radar though.

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#1462380 - 22/04/2018 15:38 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
Thanks Mike for the explanation , makes sense smile

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#1462389 - 22/04/2018 18:46 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10357
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Early morning offshore thunderstorms once again producing reasonably audible thunder on land. A brief afternoon storm developed about 8-10kms west of here.

Photos of thunderstorm development nearshore over a 15 minute period this evening, looking towards Hat Head (you can also see the storm cloud pushing through the pileus between the first and second photos) -




Just had window-shaking thunder from a storm very close-by.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2018 Rainfall: 95.8mm (June Avg. 139.9mm) // June 2018 Raindays: 8 (June Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 884.6mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 939.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 69 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1462391 - 22/04/2018 19:43 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Great shots seabreeze, lovin' these coastal thunderstorms ,the clouds have been epic and the big rumbles of thunder letting ya know that nature will always be the boss!

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#1462392 - 22/04/2018 19:47 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
To right TS, great shots all but these storms just won't come ashore.
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#1462395 - 22/04/2018 19:59 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4892
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks Seabreeze and great photos too!! That cell would have been awesome to do a time lapse on.

Speaking of time lapse here is one from Friday evening.
https://youtu.be/cX_E-YPpEGM
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 271.2mm
YTD - 692.4mm

https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1462402 - 22/04/2018 20:17 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ben Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 11/10/2002
Posts: 5306
Loc: Tweed Coast
Beautiful shots there Seabreeze!! What lovely structure. Could just imagine that storm at night with a positive CG. Now that would make a ripper shot.

A couple of funnels today in the showers offshore this evening at Cabarita Beach. Didn't want to drop down unfortunately!


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#1462416 - 23/04/2018 06:20 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
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Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato



The currently forecast positioning of the upper low almost reminds me of a setup we had around a year or two ago where a big upper low sat just inland of the SE QLD coast for days but all it ended up producing was a scattering of showers and some thunderstorms which circulated around it rather than widespread heavy rain despite an onshore flow.



It seems looking at the forecast's that's how its going to play out now, the odd shower here and there. I said a few pages back the BOM were going for up to 15mm this Tuesday (tomorrow) Now its been downgraded to 1mm. As the week progresses, it looks like the winds are going more Southerly and at times from the SW, so any rain activity looks like being offshore. Have a great Monday folks

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#1462417 - 23/04/2018 08:10 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mike Hauber Offline
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Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3086
Loc: Buderim
Trough formed further out to sea and upper level low a bit further south than some of the earlier runs so its looking pretty much over now.

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#1462421 - 23/04/2018 11:02 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Stormwithin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 02/12/2016
Posts: 150
Low flow releases from Somerset Dam are planned for the next 48 hours. Wivenhoe lake level rise less than 0.5 m over 48 hours. http://bit.ly/1dPqmtc

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#1462423 - 23/04/2018 11:17 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Flippy Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 05/12/2017
Posts: 3

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#1462425 - 23/04/2018 14:29 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Flippy]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 91
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Originally Posted By: Flippy


You haven't got any word on what time this super storm with the blanket of hail is coming do you?

I mean, I've been standing here with my toboggan ready to go skiing down the slopes all day, but it's getting pretty hot here with my beanie and scarf on this afternoon... crazy

Perhaps the "newspapers" could ask the he be a little more time specific with his tips of impending doom when they're writing their shock and horror stories. Last time I was left sitting on my front lawn in my blow up boat waiting for the 1 in 500 year flood and my neighbors all laughed at me for days... grin
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#1462429 - 23/04/2018 15:13 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10357
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Thanks for the compliments. I noticed the cloud bubbling up while driving about town, thought it might make a nice photo, so popped over to the lighthouse for a better vantage point and was rewarded.

13.2mm in the 24hrs to 9am here, with the majority of that falling during yesterday evening's storm.

The path of the weak low expected to form offshore tonight will determine how much rain ends up falling over the next 48 hours or so along the north coast. There's likely to be a decent amount of rain at sea, but how much of this gets pushed onto coastal parts remains to be seen.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2018 Rainfall: 95.8mm (June Avg. 139.9mm) // June 2018 Raindays: 8 (June Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 884.6mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 939.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 69 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1462430 - 23/04/2018 15:30 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Foehn Correspondent Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/11/2001
Posts: 594
Loc: Bardon 4065
A few rumbles of thunder from that cell moving through just west of Brisbane Airport. Only three drops of rain here though.
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#1462431 - 23/04/2018 15:30 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Whisper Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Gympie
Hey wetdreams

You mean the flood and hail aren't coming after all?

It wouldn't surprise me if the next big event was the neighbours sprinkler being called the first signs of heavy rain haha

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#1462432 - 23/04/2018 15:33 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1088
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
decent thundery shower at brendale , with scatterings of small hail among it.

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#1462434 - 23/04/2018 15:53 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Grazina Ajana Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 30/11/2016
Posts: 18
Loc: Brendale, Qld
Very small hail, baby peas size, not a lot of it, and some rumble, enough to scare my cat.

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#1462435 - 23/04/2018 16:10 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3131
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
00z GFS had precip inland and a fair area of it that has not eventuated yet. Looking at satalite and clunching at straws abit of convection firing up out there. Any reports?

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#1462436 - 23/04/2018 16:23 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1187
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Mainly blue skies out here, a little bit of cu to the S and SW but nothing worth writing home about. Looks like 1mm will be the total here from this event and probably the month with nothing else on the horizon.
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 315mm ytd

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#1462437 - 23/04/2018 16:34 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Almost all clear here, bit of cloud to the west, make a nice sunset, again!

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#1462438 - 23/04/2018 16:37 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Steve O]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
Originally Posted By: Steve O
00z GFS had precip inland and a fair area of it that has not eventuated yet. Looking at satalite and clunching at straws abit of convection firing up out there. Any reports?

GFS precip is often atrocious even at short range so I’m not surprised. I didn’t get a chance to look at anything more than ACCESS-C for today but from how it’s evolved so far, it was pretty close to the mark (very little near the coast with isolated activity inland).

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#1462442 - 23/04/2018 17:55 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Warwick Eye2Sky Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 938
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Steve O. I am still out here in Texas and there is a nice little rumbler to our east. Very dark with rain shaft visible and getting closer. Traveling around just reminds me of how inactive the weather is out in Warwick, lol.
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#1462446 - 23/04/2018 19:11 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 357
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Was up the coast and missed all the rain, when I got back to work in Brendale it looked like there had been a downpour.

3mm seems to be the average amount recorded at local PWS's so must have been thick and fast.
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#1462458 - 24/04/2018 10:20 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5180
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Steady rain from this system overnight and into this morning. Hard to pick what is happening from the radar, looks like at least a smaller low is circulating within the larger trough and has moved closer to shore to our north.

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#1462459 - 24/04/2018 10:29 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Quiet in here today
Forcast says low moving wnw towards coast
Forcast se qld is possible showers or storm later
Thoughts from anyone
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1462461 - 24/04/2018 12:00 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: tsunami]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: tsunami
Quiet in here today
Forcast says low moving wnw towards coast
Forcast se qld is possible showers or storm later
Thoughts from anyone



Well it's strange that, the winds in Northern NSW are South Westerly, however the rain is coming in from the South East lol . Looks like some of the Northern NSW cloud is slowly making it's way up to Southern QLD

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#1462462 - 24/04/2018 12:20 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
TWEEDSTORM Offline
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Registered: 08/01/2012
Posts: 739
Loc: Tweed Heads NSW
Very uninteresting sky compared to recent days with the offshore winds and dry lookin airmass.Might change later hopefully

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#1462464 - 24/04/2018 12:42 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: gleno71]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
Originally Posted By: gleno71

Well it's strange that, the winds in Northern NSW are South Westerly, however the rain is coming in from the South East lol . Looks like some of the Northern NSW cloud is slowly making it's way up to Southern QLD

Nah not strange - it's simply because the low level winds at the height of the clouds have more of a SSE component than the surface winds which are more SSW.

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#1462467 - 24/04/2018 13:44 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
SnowyTrainNorth Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 12/07/2015
Posts: 17
Loc: Glen Innes, NSW
Nice showers here at Glen. be the first actual bit of rain for a while.
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#1462468 - 24/04/2018 14:08 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: TWEEDSTORM]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: TWEEDSTORM
Very uninteresting sky compared to recent days with the offshore winds and dry lookin airmass.Might change later hopefully


Looks like the change has moved thru the Gold Coast region now. Very overcast after a clear morning

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#1462472 - 24/04/2018 17:57 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Are there any surprises in the atmosphere before the thread date ends.
Not lookin likely to the untrained weather observer. The low appears to far SE of SEQ.
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#1462475 - 24/04/2018 18:49 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10357
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
Rain periods here today courtesy of the weak low sitting off the north coast. For the most part, it's been light to steady rain, however there has been the odd brief burst of moderate to borderline heavy rain, which has helped to bring 28.8mm since 9am. Thunder has been heard this evening from storm activity offshore, making it the fifth day in a row with thunder heard.
5.0mm fell in the 24hrs to 9am from light rain at times.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2018 Rainfall: 95.8mm (June Avg. 139.9mm) // June 2018 Raindays: 8 (June Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 884.6mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 939.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 69 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1462486 - 24/04/2018 20:50 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6987
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Bet there were a few Wide Bayer's surprised to hear the odd rumble tonight - I know I was! No rain here though - all slid just to our west.

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#1462492 - 24/04/2018 21:54 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Mega]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 437
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: Mega
Bet there were a few Wide Bayer's surprised to hear the odd rumble tonight - I know I was! No rain here though - all slid just to our west.


Yes, surprises in rapid or random onset and equally quick departure of instability seems to be on the weather menu more often at this time of year.

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#1462501 - 25/04/2018 08:02 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Mega]
justme Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 05/02/2011
Posts: 207
Loc: Pacific Haven QLD
Originally Posted By: Mega
Bet there were a few Wide Bayer's surprised to hear the odd rumble tonight - I know I was! No rain here though - all slid just to our west.
Sure was, only 3mm here but falls of 25 to 3omm west of here.

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#1462517 - 25/04/2018 13:01 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Light steady drizzle just startin here, O'l Marburg not showin much.
BUGGA, the washin
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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#1462522 - 25/04/2018 14:51 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato


I often watch the ICON model these days as well as the others since it seems to be fairly good on average and I note it's still going for a surface low to form early next week and come ashore near the QLD/NSW border with a bigger low forming in the trough well off the NSW coast later in the week.



Funny you should say that, I've started following ICON this event as it has been the most consistent of the models. Would love some feedback on its accuracy. Seems to be going pretty well so far this event, great to have a new model to follow. Appears this one runs a bit differently to the others? For the record here is the latest ICON total rain forecast for this event, has not moved from this for a good number of runs:



Here's what's happened so far. 1st image is the observed rainfall in the 96hrs up to 9am this morning, 2nd clip is the ICON forecast using the 12z run prior to when we were talking about it, and the 3rd clip is the MSLP analysis (bearing in mind that the isobar spacing is 4hpa on the MSLP analysis charts and 2hpa on the ICON charts via Tropical Tidbits so the isobars will appear a bit more tightly packed on the forecast chart compared to the analysis charts).
At time of writing this, the surface low is just off the SE QLD/NE NSW border coast.

The model overdid the low's intensity and timing was out by a day but accurately predicted the positioning and general movement of the system.
The same run of GFS had a deep trough instead with a low starting to form well off the NSW central/mid north coast by this time:







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#1462529 - 25/04/2018 16:09 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10357
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
34.8mm in the 24hrs to 9am here. The rain largely cleared overnight, though some light rain fell again around dawn/sunrise.
Laurieton was the wettest place with 81mm in the 24hr to 9am period, with a few other locations in the Port-Hastings area recording 50-60mm falls over the same period.

No rain here since what fell around dawn/sunrise, but maybe a window of opportunity for a shower or two this evening.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
June 2018 Rainfall: 95.8mm (June Avg. 139.9mm) // June 2018 Raindays: 8 (June Avg. 10.5 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 884.6mm (Jan-Jun Avg. 939.2mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 69 (Jan-Jun Avg. 77.4 raindays)

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#1462535 - 25/04/2018 17:09 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
I know mt Stapleton radar has a planed outage
Just seems its out of action more than it works
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1462545 - 25/04/2018 19:12 Re: SEQ/NENSW Trough & Coastal low with showers/rain and some t'storms - April 20th to 25th 2018 [Re: Blowin']
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Our light drizzle earlier this arvo, actually produced 11 mm.
Best total since the second day of this thread. Noice!!
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We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

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