Page 4 of 12 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 11 12 >
Topic Options
#1462409 - 22/04/2018 21:45 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 441
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Really loving all the rain that is predicted to fall on the land on our saturated soils and overflowing dams. This event will also really help the SSTs. YIPEE

Top
#1462411 - 22/04/2018 21:51 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Looks like Eddy might be in for a few more showers yet. Newey radar looks ok.


Quite possibly, some rumbling going on out there. Some reasonable accumulation just offshore.

Hey Homer, you would be one happy blue and gold today?
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

Top
#1462413 - 22/04/2018 22:33 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1590
Loc: Cooks Gap NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Forum police 🙄🙄🙄

The event hasnít started or finished, so letís keep the post mortems til then.



Sounds like a plan smile

Top
#1462415 - 23/04/2018 00:19 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: EddyG]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5954
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Homer
Looks like Eddy might be in for a few more showers yet. Newey radar looks ok.


Quite possibly, some rumbling going on out there. Some reasonable accumulation just offshore.

Hey Homer, you would be one happy blue and gold today?


Yes. Finally Eddy.
It may not last long though. We'll take it though.

Top
#1462427 - 23/04/2018 14:57 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3183
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
The way the models are downgrading, all but GFS, from Sydney southwards will get no more than token splash out of this.
_________________________
Michael Thompson
http://ozthunder.com

Top
#1462428 - 23/04/2018 14:58 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 109
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Bugger.

Top
#1462441 - 23/04/2018 16:54 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Long Road Home Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 08/10/2007
Posts: 8561
Loc: Northern Beaches Syd
The latest forecasts now indicate more of a prolonged southerly pattern lasting about a week or 2 with bits and pieces of shower activity mounting up to about 10-50mm depending where on the coast you are (with the highest totals being in the north). The only upside to all this would be the temp drop.

Top
#1462443 - 23/04/2018 18:09 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Long Road Home]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4365
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Long Road Home
The latest forecasts now indicate more of a prolonged southerly pattern lasting about a week or 2 with bits and pieces of shower activity mounting up to about 10-50mm depending where on the coast you are (with the highest totals being in the north). The only upside to all this would be the temp drop.

Yes I agree. I would hate to see that pattern in Summer, I'd consisder spending time away if I could. But now after a long dry spell and into Autumn - what do the young people say - "meh". Sydney's expected rainfall to the end of the month is now 4-17mm, with the pattern continuing into early May. Newcastle is expecting 12-41mm.

Maxima are dropping closer to average, but nights are still relatively warm. If the forecast is correct, Sydney OH will get through April with no maxima below 20.5 and no minimum below 14.5. We do occasionally get through April with no max below 20. Minima usually get into the low teens, but these days not often below 10. The 'hottest' coldest April max is 20.7 in 2004.The 'hottest' coldest April Min is 14.7 in the warmish wet April of 1989.

OH Monthly averages of min - max will finsih 18.2 to 26.0, compared to existing records 16.9 (1989) to 25.6 (1922).





Edited by Steve777 (23/04/2018 18:11)

Top
#1462447 - 23/04/2018 19:40 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
So it looks like the typical miserable April rain will come after all, but later than usual.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1462477 - 24/04/2018 19:14 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
According to radar it suppose to be raining, but it hasn't at this stage. Before sunset it certainly was very dark to the north and east. Should see one or two showers overnight.
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

Top
#1462478 - 24/04/2018 19:23 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: EddyG]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5954
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: EddyG
According to radar it suppose to be raining, but it hasn't at this stage. Before sunset it certainly was very dark to the north and east. Should see one or two showers overnight.


Gee I could have sworn you would have had some showers this afternoon Eddy going by the radar. Maybe better luck tonight.

I see a rogue 0.2 mm popped up at Olympic Park today at 12 pm. We all know this didn't happen. I hope it's corrected.

Blair, do you know when the Bombala temperature gauge will be back on line? After last weeks records plunging to lows of -70, I'm quite keen to see it back. smile

Top
#1462480 - 24/04/2018 19:52 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1771
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Showers coming in from the coast north of Dungog are going inland to Scone in the upper Hunter.You dont see that often.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1462481 - 24/04/2018 20:08 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Stormy3]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 441
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Stormy3
Showers coming in from the coast north of Dungog are going inland to Scone in the upper Hunter.You dont see that often.

Weird must be some extra instability hanging around, although it is well deserved hear that the Upper hunter is superdry as well. Hopefully you guys can something like this when the rainfall moves more south.

Top
#1462483 - 24/04/2018 20:29 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Stormy3]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Yeah Homer, 15Ks up the road its been a mainly showery day, whilst here was quite a pleasant day.
Just had a brief shower then, but not enough to register in the gauge.

Originally Posted By: Stormy3
Showers coming in from the coast north of Dungog are going inland to Scone in the upper Hunter.You dont see that often.


Yeah not a hundred percent convinced that its shower activity, It will be interesting to see if these places record any precip over the next hour or two!!
Hopefully I'm wrong.


Edited by EddyG (24/04/2018 20:37)
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

Top
#1462484 - 24/04/2018 20:29 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4365
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I notice that Badgery's Creek had 2.6mm late this morning. That is unexpected. I spent most of today indoors but it looked like another in the long run of warm, sunny days.

---

Looking at the models, Access is showing S-SE winds for Sydney forever, with light showers but not a lot of rain.

EC shows the SE pattern ending by May 3, with a couple of days of NW winds followed by a return to the SE pattern

GFS ends the SE pattern May 1, with a mixed pattern for a few days preceding a cold outbreak of a few days starting May 7.

I'll barrack for GFS.

Top
#1462487 - 24/04/2018 21:12 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1771
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Looks like some heavier showers or rain areas coming onshore now east of me.this should move in to me here before long hopefully.
_________________________
https://www.facebook.com/supercell1
Click here for Ellalong weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

Top
#1462488 - 24/04/2018 21:16 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Steve777]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6957
Originally Posted By: Steve777
I notice that Badgery's Creek had 2.6mm late this morning. That is unexpected. I spent most of today indoors but it looked like another in the long run of warm, sunny days.


I believe that isn't real since there was no temp drop with the 'shower' and the humidity was 49%.

It was very sunny here, in fact not a cloud in the sky from about 9am and probably is still completely clear right now.

I'll barrack for GFS too but I reckon the cold front will weaken or maybe even be completely phased out in later runs. If it lasts a few days as is, I'll have more confidence. GFS doesn't seem to have the tendency to overestimate the coldness of cold fronts.


Edited by Wave Rider (24/04/2018 21:18)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

Top
#1462490 - 24/04/2018 21:25 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 441
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
I feel like that Cold front is here to stay because i noticed it in 06z run on like Sunday, it was phased out and it has returned. Which was much like the Late Feb event. EC also going for the cold front albeit a few days later. Also feel like that Cold front will bear rain as well and decent amount after this prolonged easterly flow.Although GFS at the end of the run going for a super cold pool and that's what i'm sceptical of happening.

Top
#1462499 - 25/04/2018 07:22 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Homer Online   content
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5954
Loc: Dural
A nice stream of showers heading towards the Sydney coastline at the moment.
I notice that the BOM upgraded their 4.45 am forecast at 6.00 am, from a low (20%) chance of showers to a medium (50%) chance of showers.

Top
#1462504 - 25/04/2018 08:36 Re: NSW - Coastal Showers and isolated storms - April 25th to 30th 2018 (inc. speculation about a late April ECL) [Re: Kino]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4365
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I went outside just now. It is overcast to the East and North with blue sky to the West. The Sun is trying to come out. It felt cool and damp (it's probably about 16į) with that after-rain smell. For the first time in a while, the roads and paths are wet. It's been raining. Not a lot, I haven't heard rain and none's been registered at Chatswood or OH, but is is the first time it's rained here in 4 weeks.

Top
Page 4 of 12 < 1 2 3 4 5 6 ... 11 12 >


Who's Online
5 registered (Homer, Antarctic Whaler, DerekHV, rhizome, 1 invisible), 60 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
benny200, ChaseNZ, ptera, stormymick1, ThunderstormZ, typhoonbeach
Forum Stats
29681 Members
32 Forums
23978 Topics
1500543 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image