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#1462673 - 28/04/2018 00:38 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Probably time to get this thread up and running with next week starting to look like a proper plains event after what has been a slow start to the severe weather season in the traditional 'Tornado Alley'.

We arrived yesterday into Denver CO to start getting ready for another season of chasing the plains and at this stage it doesn't look like we will be waiting long to start getting in to it. Yet to fine tune the early stages of this event but it does appear that we will at the very least see some dry line activity from west KS up into Nebraska and South Dakota on Monday with things becoming more widespread into Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper system starts to overspread the plains.

Obviously too early to think about precise target areas just yet but will probably head up towards SD on Monday for starters.

All going well we will try and share a few pics over the next couple of months as we find some interesting severe weather.
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#1462675 - 28/04/2018 08:09 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozone doug Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Have a great time Orebound . I will be watching on the chaser net or one of those lol.Been good the last few years i have watched .Keep us up to date . I will be trying to learn the setups.


Edited by ozone doug (28/04/2018 08:10)
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#1462811 - 30/04/2018 02:07 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Good that this time of the year has come around again.....only catch is once again I am not there smirk but I will virtual it as per usual!

Yea, marginal high based bangers today, nothing too exciting but if I was there it would probably be epic from my lowly South Australian standards.

Monday first good day, nice sfc low forms, bigger influx of moisture north across the alley, two main focuses, the dryline in the panhandle region of TX/OK (but severely capped) or the safer option across NE/SD but less enthralling shear vectors and turning compared to the TX panhandle. I've got a couple of targets in mind but will post tomorrow official ones to keep the 'day before' record of targets consistent.

Tuesday looks fairly strong, upper trough coming in but wednesday has the potential to be decidedly NASTY if things come together as they are looking atm. AT LEAST a MOD or possibly a HIGH risk for wed at this stage i would say. Only thing is they will be moving seriously quick, sometimes the big upper troughs can make things go linear a bit early and screw things up but will review closer to the day.

Good luck Orebound mate, you know I'll be following you closely!

TS cool

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#1462873 - 01/05/2018 00:33 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right target today is Hedley TX for the dryline, looks ok to break the cap down there, and for northern target Miller NE. Prefer the southern option down the dryline I think, bit less messy although the NE stuff should go further into the night with the cold front hanging around up there.

TS cool

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#1462904 - 01/05/2018 12:35 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozone doug Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Few cells around Dodge city nothing severe, Night time now .Will check in tomorrow morning .


Edited by ozone doug (01/05/2018 12:36)
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BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
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#1462910 - 01/05/2018 14:48 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Good luck Orebound mate, you know I'll be following you closely!


Thanks Rowland, I know you're always along for the ride in the virtual sense!

So yeah we decided to take the punt on the Texas panhandle option today after making our way down from Nebraska yesterday, but like most we were not entirely convinced by the low level moisture quality and the sky high bases on the initial updrafts soon drove that hunch home.

There was however a very nicely sculptured little LP number right on dusk up towards Canadian TX that made the chase worthwhile.

Spending the night in Woodward OK with a view to targeting somewhere around south central KS tomorrow in what could be quite a big day.

Will fine tune some target areas in the morning.
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#1462937 - 01/05/2018 22:30 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Fairly bullish text from the SPC this morning.

Quote:
With very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability in
place, the airmass will be primed for explosive thunderstorm
development once convective initiation occurs. An initially discrete
storm mode is anticipated along the dryline in KS while a clustered
storm mode is more likely along the cold front from south-central NE
across IA. Veering wind profiles are anticipated along the dryline,
with current guidance suggesting effective SRH over 250 m2/s2 and
effective bulk shear over 50 kt. These wind profiles are more than
supportive of supercells, and, given the likely discrete initial
mode, tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes are possible, particularly
near the triple point where the probability of backed surface winds
is higher. Very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inches in diameter)
is also likely with the storms along the dry line as well as initial
development farther northeast along the cold front. The hail threat
will extend into southern WI as the low-level jet supports
thunderstorms along the frontal zone.

A Moderate Risk for tornadoes may be warranted in subsequent
outlooks but the confined nature of the threat and remaining
uncertainty regarding the location of the triple-point during the
afternoon as well as the extent of the moisture return merits
waiting for more confidence before upgrading.


Early start this morning going over the data so we are about to hit the road again shortly. Will likely be targeting the areas between say Hay KS and Salina KS initially and take it from there.
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#1462944 - 02/05/2018 02:34 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Liking your target there Orebound, looking like a very nice day.

Generally, much better setup today a quasi-stationary cold front across N KS into NE with a nice triple point over Central/N central KS and subtending dryline extending south from that down into OK and TX.

The main interest is naturally the triple point where tornado potential should be enhanced but maybe not straight away, certainly towards the evening hours SRH increased dramatically as the LLj kicks in and the inflow angle broadens the hodograph a little in the vicinity of the said triple point and S/SE of it, translating eastward.

Given some fairly swift mid level flow aloft from the divergent side of an amplifying upper low over CA, things will not exactly stand still so fair bit of keeping up may be required.

Models hinting at renewed nocturnal supercells trained along the stalled cold front where CIN is less than further south down the dryline....those cells will have a slimmer window to get tornadic I think before CIN increases and everything carks it over S KS and OK/TX, but anything that does get up down there could still put one down and chuck out some thumping hail from discrete storms.

So all that said, I think I will stick myself right in the thick of it, sitting off the dryline east into the greater tornado potential for the evening so my target will be approx Luray KS and take it from there....things will fire up well west but I think by end of the night I could end up near pushing towards the NE corner of KS.

TS cool

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#1462959 - 02/05/2018 12:32 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Incredible day out there ending with a very close intercept of the Tescott/Bennington wedge tornado.

Big day again tomorrow so early night at the first decent motel we find, will post some video in coming days.
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#1462980 - 02/05/2018 23:33 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
A couple quick clips of that wedge in KS yesterday..

Tescott KS Wedge Tornado

Target for today still undecided but heading in the general direction of south central Kansas at the moment, will refine more precise targets after more (lots) coffee.
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#1462982 - 03/05/2018 02:12 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
What a monster mate!!! you did very well, lovely footage!

So in review of yesterday, very happy with how the target played out, two main tornadic supercells, the first went right over Luray in its earlier stages before going tornadic just ENE and went on to produce a string of tornadoes south of Concordia, the second and most intense supercell formed the next chain south down the dryline and displayed multiple TVS signatures for hours before really putting down the big wedge near Tescott not far ESE of the target so virtually would have been somewhere around there! Was a hell of a hailer too as Willoughby found out!

Today is a bit messier, especially over KS/MO etc where the main feature will be the later formation of derecho/MCS structure with severe wind, but further SW we have the quasi stationary cold front draped from C KS to SW KS into the far NW OK Panhandle. A dryline then subtends south through the TX panhandle moving into W OK later in the afternoon.

Aloft there is a fairly substantial mid to upper speed max, ripping NE, stronger than yesterday as the upper trough peaks, increasing the flow aloft, so great exhaust aloft.

So firstly, the initiation should be somewhere over the far NW OK Panhandle and SW corner of KS and extreme N parts of the TX panhandles with these storms rapidly consolidating to severe complexes. Later in the afternoon the dryline will then blow up under great CAPE around 3500 J/Kg with a more explosive cap break and move into an area of better shear, improved angle of inflow across the warm sector over W OK which I like. The shear over KS is simply not as good, lesser angle from sfc flow to mid level flow which will quickly favour linear modes all apart from the more S parts of KS which certainly looks quite tasty late as the LLJ gets going from OK.

So all that considered I think I'll sit a bit more south into OK, and my target area will be around Seiling OK with stacks of road options from there, initiation will be well west of there so should allow time to pick my supercell to follow from into S KS or potentially, further S. Playing the tail end charlie might be a go today and although today looked like being the big day, I think it will be hard to top yesterday's efforts. That being said, there is a lot more moisture today and the shear is reasonably similar at peak times so that has to be noted, strong to violent tornadoes are still possible!

TS cool

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#1462983 - 03/05/2018 06:50 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Few nice supercells have erupted on the dryline, the best two look to be passing south of Seiling so dropping down towards Clinton for the intercept, could play all 3 cells as they come up.

TS cool

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#1463015 - 03/05/2018 14:55 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks mate.

Here's a bit of a still from that Tescott tor...


Tescott KS Wedge Tornado
by Orebound Images, on Flickr

Tough day out there today in western OK. in spite of storm mode staying quite discreet for much of the day there were only a couple very brief tornadoes reported. We saw some extremely good attempts however with rapid tightening of the meso occurring numerous times on the storm we targeted triggering plenty of tornado warnings but to no avail. Very photogenic supercell however.
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#1463018 - 03/05/2018 15:02 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4916
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Great video & image Orebound.
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#1463106 - 04/05/2018 14:11 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks Eddy.

Ridging going to dominate the plains for an extended period now so off to Utah and Nevada (Vegas) for a week or so until the next round of severe weather in the alley. The break from chasing is always welcomed.

Here's another pic from up in Kansas, this is the same cell that went on to produce the above tornado a couple of hours later after many attempts at wrapping up.


Kansas Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1463272 - 06/05/2018 21:50 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
That Tescott tornado we chased last week was anylized as an EF 3, quite strong.

Starting to see some agreement on a reasonable system affecting the plains later next week. Way too early to put in the bank but watching closely.
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#1464021 - 17/05/2018 23:48 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right looks like things might take a step up from the garden variety activity that has been over the plains for the last week (certainly by tornado alley standards in May, would still be pretty epic down here)

Nice mid to upper trough out west slowly moving in, inducing sfc low over CO. Return flow is modest but the angle isn't too bad, but overall bulk shear is only average. Nevertheless, CAPE is large and general forcing is good so should see some strong eruptions on the dryline over CO/TX moving east into KS and general OK from the panhandle regions. SPC have enhanced 2% tornado probs over far N CO but not hugely convinced of the grunt up there, shear and SRH is good enough for something but stronger storms will persist down the dryline and may take over with more southern position impeding flow into N CO. Will target the Holly CO to Syracuse KS area and take it from there along the I50.

TS cool

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#1464023 - 18/05/2018 00:15 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Good work Rowland.

I have been a bit slack in posting to the thread but with the huge miles we are doing every day it is simply too hard to find the time. You kind of just roll into a town at 10 or 11 at night, have a couple beers and hit the sack before getting on the road early again the next day. Have just ticked over 13,000km for the first 3 weeks here so we're certainly not letting the grass grow under our feet.

As you mentioned, things have been rather garden variety by US standards but certainly not uninteresting. We have managed to find some incredible sructure and some seriously angry large hail machines across Nebraska, Wyoming, New Mexico, Texas and Colorado over the past week. That long-tracked thing off the Denver foothills that tracked all the way into central Kansas a few days ago way while chucking out 3 and 4 inch hail the whole way was incredible although it did manage to put a few chasers off the road for a couple days while they found alternatives to their totalled chase vehicles!

As for today, I'm of much the same opinion as you. We drove up from Amarillo TX late yesterday to Lamar CO and at this stage I don't see a lot of need to go pushing too far north at all today. Will stay put here for the time being as it looks like being another very late initiation anyway.

Tomorrow looks marginally better in terms of tornado potential in my opinion but I certainly won't be surprised to see one or two show up today.

See how we go.

A couple quick pics from around the joint over the past week or so...


Carey TX Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


Kansas Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1464030 - 18/05/2018 10:10 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Great shots mate!!

Looking a bit dry today tbh, was a tad worried about that but nothing is rooting down into the low levels in the target area, all staying mostly in the TX Panhandle and OK Panhandle area so prob would have shot down to maybe intercept those but tbh even those are only average severe so maybe a bust today I think and prepare for tomorrow which looks much better.

TS cool

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#1464060 - 19/05/2018 00:49 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Very tricky one today, it's definitely better than yesterday but we will have two main areas to focus on.

Upper level shortwave still slowly moving through, but a nice sfc low forms over E CO during the afternoon and deepens. Southerly to SSE LLJ comes in later with moisture and a nice dryline goes up from the TX Panhandle through OK Panhandle into western KS with triple point further NW.

Storms should fire off the CO ranges and move east, quickly going super cellular. Then the dryline should take off, firstly over the N TX Panhandle where enhanced sfc convergence is quite marked on the charts with a near dryline buldge there. The sfc flow here is back a little and moisture isn't too bad so some strong supercells should crank here first. Then the gap fills in up the dryline over W KS with the entire dryline going up and turning into a big raging linear MCS feature into the night through much of KS and parts of N OK. I'd imagine a ripping lightning show once this gets going.

But tornado wise, it's nothing flash but much better than yesterday with strong forcing and a little better shear. Still lacking a bit in the mids but there could be some lovely sculptured storms at first before the moisture comes in and makes them all angry and HP. Best tornado chance is the transition to the HP mode but they could be wrapped quickly with the average shear. With the later cap break and more E vectors of the SFC flow around the top of the low I will go more for W KS somewhere around the area of Garden City KS to Dodge City KS and see how we go. Initiation likely further west but will wait for them to come to me.

TS cool

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