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#1464064 - 19/05/2018 11:27 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Whole multitude of cells formed south of the target area and then just west of, blessed for choice, but generally too many have got up along the dryline too quickly, many exhibited suspicious characteristics for brief periods but got choked out by all the other cells wanting a pieace of the pie. The far NNW corner of KS seems to have avoided the choking and a multi vortex tornado reported there and a nice stand alone LP in Quinter out the front also avoiding the bad air and getting that easterly over the top of the low I was mentioning. So hard to say where I would have gone but lots to choose and now MCS line is forming for the big show through KS tonight so would trail that then overnight in W central KS ready for tomorrow.

TS cool

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#1464135 - 21/05/2018 12:05 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3183
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Sorry I have been busy this year I have not had much time to review the USA targets. Seems to be a very slow year however = if same here, a great Aussie season.

Some of the longer term models for GFS are better not looked at. Death Ridge from hell, than flipping to an upper cool low east of the plains = wrong direction mid and upper flows on plains.

Still wish I was there however !
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#1464283 - 25/05/2018 03:50 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right, have got lazy last few days but would have been playing the SW TX/NM region for a few days before shooting north yest to chase NE/NE CO area.

Today, I'm liking the uplsope flow into E CO and far W KS. Sfc low deepens late, CAPE is not that large but increases into KS later, should see multicells and maybe a supercell or two forming over E CO roughly at the I-70 corridor latitude....then picking up heading east into W KS. Targeting Burlington CO to Goodland KS along that corridor.

There is another option in E ND but that's a bit far to be driving for similar strength activity.

TS cool

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#1464334 - 26/05/2018 04:30 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well would have scored a nice cluster of multicells yest near the target, but nothing terribly strong!

Today things shift south into OK, been bit of an MCS overnight so things are a bit supressed for now behind it but recovery should occur and new cells should fire up over the TX Panhandle and SW OK. Especially keen to chase near the lingering OFB from the said MCS to see if that can do anything. Not really a tornado day but ample CAPE should allow for large to very large hail and damaging winds. Targeting Sayre to Erick OK and tracking more SSE from there as steering is quite abnormal.

TS cool

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#1464372 - 27/05/2018 01:15 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2386
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
That would have been a reasonable target mate, a very nicely structured cell went up right over Sayre in the late afternoon but didn't sustain long after dark with increasing CIN putting it to bed quickly.

We met up with Willoughby and Brayden and targeted an area a bit further west earlier in the afternoon. The lone cell we were on to the SE of Canadian TX remained relatively high-based but did take on some lovely LP structure for a period and even produced a couple persistent funnels before succumbing to the CAP later in the evening. Plenty of hail etc too.

Day off chasing today while we travel north to Nebraska/Wyoming or even the Dakotas for tomorrow.
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#1464391 - 27/05/2018 13:24 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Was just going through your photos Orebound, you have some lovely images in your account.

I noticed a pic of Hoover dam, the water level looks very low, what was the water level at?
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#1464426 - 28/05/2018 00:35 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Tough one to pick today, broad area of potential from TX/OK Panhandle, through western KS, E/NE CO, SW NE and even possibly far S SD. Two main areas stand out...

Firstly, Far NE CO around sfc low there and closer proximity to mid level speed max atop upper shortwave coming through plus less capping. But terrible veer, back veer, develops which could mess things up after initial discrete cells.

Secondly, cleaner more discrete potential down into SW KS but much more capping and less forcing, although a better depth and stronger LLJ comes in late in the day than further N and less chance of veer, back veer shear.

Now given I would have made the drive N from OK yest, I'd have initially thought of the SD/NE option as that looked good but less so today. Nevertheless I think I'll be stuck with that so thinking perhaps just into SW NE from CO and will target Brule NE but also like Scott City KS. Real roughie to play frontal zone more N is Cody NE

TS cool

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#1464427 - 28/05/2018 01:20 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: EddyG]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2386
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Was just going through your photos Orebound, you have some lovely images in your account.

I noticed a pic of Hoover dam, the water level looks very low, what was the water level at?


Thanks Eddie, I appreciate that.

As for Hoover Dam, I'm sorry I didn't really pay any attention to what the exact water level was at but as you said it was extremely low - by far the lowest I have seen it and it appears as though the levels have continued to fall.

Yes Rowland, tough day today and not really a day that screams anything too over the top. Storm modes look questionable later in the evening and yeah, that VBV is a real worry.

We drove the 500 or 600 miles up from Elk City OK to Sidney NE yesterday and don't really see any need to move too far from here at this stage. Bulk shear looks much better too our west over in Wyoming but there is currently some pretty ordinary dew point depressions over there that will need watching.

So for the time being it's just a wait and watch situation but we'll most likely just be poking around the i-80 corridor somewhere between Cheyenne WY and the far NE corner of Colorado.

Big step up in tornado potential tomorrow and Tuesday for sure.
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#1464433 - 28/05/2018 09:26 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 6011
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
^^^Hello Eddy G.:
In response to your question: Hoover Dam holds back Lake Mead and as of today (Sunday, May 27th), the level of Lake Mead is 1,080.89FT/329.53M above Mean Sea Level (MSL), which is 148.11FT/45.15M below Full Pool level.

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1464435 - 28/05/2018 09:51 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5055
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks Orebound and Wet Snow
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#1464440 - 28/05/2018 10:58 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1126
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
i was over there in 2016 and they were saying with the drought and population growth around vegas , the water in lake mead will run out within 15 years, and there were no plans afoot to deal with it. Along with that , hoover provides a lot of juice for the power grid , not sure where it goes , but that would impact also.

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#1464470 - 29/05/2018 01:53 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday was a mixed bag, copious storms around Brule NE and a nice late one near Cody and a single storm near Scott City KS but no tornado. Big one in WY however with more easterly component but heavily rain wrapped.

Today is a better day, not enormous but a step up. Two main areas catch my attention. NE CO/SE WY and NW KS.

Firstly we have a nice upper shortwave moving in with stronger winds through the mids which will cause a better forced ascent of all activity over the target areas. Nice LLJ response later into KS as well ahead of the dryline which will erupt.

The CO/WY area sees discrete supercells forming quickly and making the most of the upslope regime there with a nice easterly component. Simla tornado rings a bell from a similar setup but perhaps not quite as good as that. Should see quite a few spread ENE from Denver and into WY from there and east towards KS/NE borders. I'm interested in a boundary over NE CO later that could be ingested into any storms moving towards it for enhanced tornado potential.

Further east we have the second option of the dryline and that should explode into a large line of storms. The CAPE is 3000-3500j/Kg so no worries there and shear comes into play nicely later, especially as LLJ really kicks in after dark opening a tornado window. The only question is there may be so much convection it could have formed an enormous linear squall line by then as some models show but anything discrete could get going, even all the way down towards the OK panhandle is not without a tornado chance for the tail end charlie.

But overall after finishing yest in SW NE, I'd be targeting NE CO today so will think around the Akron to Platner CO area and take it from there. For those targeting WY Burns looks ok and for those in KS I'd be looking at about Oakley KS

*edit* after checking the NAM 3Km, I realised that the CO target has PDS TOR forecast on the soundings, not too shabby, lets see if it can produce!

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (29/05/2018 02:00)

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#1464497 - 29/05/2018 14:52 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2386
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Big day up here in NE Colorado today with multiple landspout tornadoes putting on a show prior to us getting up close and personal with a fairly intense multi-vortex wedge prior to it wrapping in rain and bombing us with large hail. We also managed to see a lovely little rope tornado that appeared to be a satellite moving back towards the main circulation before disappearing into heavy rain.

I almost didn't target this particular storm in the early stages given its initiation point well north of the boundary, but it soon hooked hard right and anchored which was enough to put us and the next 500 chasers in the area on it.

The day finished with major chaser convergence at a steak joint in Burlington CO with most of the aussie contingent all showing up which was nice.

Early start tomorrow with a fairly big drive down to Oklahoma for what looks like another reasonable tornado day on the plains.

Here's a fairly low quality shot of a pair of spouts that occurred early in the life-cycle of this storm, it is considered quite unusual for landspouts and mesocyclonic tornadoes to occur from the same storm.


Landspout Tornado Twins
by Orebound Images, on Flickr

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#1464510 - 29/05/2018 18:10 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1126
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Speak for myself but probably for many when I say I appreciate the effort you guys put back into this thread. Iím loving it, I will be over there at some stage one year but until then , live it via you fellas. Keep it coming please. Amd thanks.

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#1464550 - 30/05/2018 00:56 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Amazing day yest in NE CO, target certainly paid off, a quick drop south was all that was needed to get this monster landspout and tornado producing supercell.

Great shot too Orebound, bloody awesome stuff.

Today is another good day, perhaps a shade down on yest but a good plains/alley day in more traditional areas. Expecting dryline to take off through KS especially with numerous severe storms, discrete at first but quickly congealing to linear through the middle as mid level jet takes over from upper shortwave to west....should see more discrete modes down the dryline into NW OK and this will be my area today. LLJ comes in later, not as easterly as yest but enough to warrant a brief tornado window as sunset approaches and for a while after, especially if anything can remain discrete down near the tail end charlie. Very large hail also a threat today, could see baseballs even softballs so watch out. Target around Vici OK and take it from there, initiation likely well west into TX/OK Panhandle and SW KS.

TS cool

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#1464654 - 31/05/2018 01:57 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday sure put out some massive classic and HP supercells in the enhanced risk area with the Vici OK target smack bang in the middle of one supercell to the SW near Wheeler TX and another near Waynoka, both tornadic, but nothing directly overhead. Would have gone for the closer Waynoka HP, certainly impressive!

Today the focus shifts west and the intensity of things decreases but still a chance of a strong MCS/derecho threat overnight through the N OK regions.

Dryline mixes west today, initiation over SE CO/ far NW OK Panhandle and TX Panhandle. Should rapidly intensify and move into more favourable conditions are they go eastward, nice LLJ comes in and decent moisture. Stronger bulk shear 45-55knots, that mid level shortwave and associated jet will get them moving and will bow them out quickly if the LLJ cannot balance the inflow out in time. But a brief tornado window in the discrete stages before this, especially in NW OK. CAPE is again very large so very large to giant hail to 4 inches is possible again.

Targeting Guymon OK and take things from there, best tornado threat perhaps a little ESE but will need to pick my cell coming in from CO/NM firstly.

TS cool

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#1464656 - 31/05/2018 04:36 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: BIG T]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2386
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: BIG T
Speak for myself but probably for many when I say I appreciate the effort you guys put back into this thread. Iím loving it, I will be over there at some stage one year but until then , live it via you fellas. Keep it coming please. Amd thanks.


No problem mate, I wish we had more time to do a few more updates from over here.

Yes Rowland, we targeted that Waynoka beast up in northern OK from initiation to after sunset and in spite of going HP it still managed to put down a brief tornado. The storm up near Dodge City was the one that got away however with a magnificent long-lived stove pipe coming from that one as well as a large multi-vortex close to sunset.

We have moved over into the western panhandle today and are currently at Boise City waiting for initiation back over in NM - see how we go.

Preliminary report from the Colorado tornado-fest the other day.

https://www.weather.gov/bou/MemorialDay2018Tornadoes



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#1464723 - 01/06/2018 01:21 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Strong HP supercell in the N OK Panhandle yest, followed by a couple more trailing supercells, lots of wind damage but no tornado, target faired well with Guymon copping hits from both rounds of storms.

Today would have resulted in a massive relocation. For many that wouldn't have been an option had one chased the panhandles all day yest but anyone who didn't will be presented with a chance in ND today and maybe also in MT but I like the LLJ and SE/E sfc flow undercutting a nice mid level shortwave, plenty of CAPE so definitely not without a shot. Target of Medora ND and see how it goes from there.

TS cool

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#1464769 - 01/06/2018 16:03 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
NE CO day was amazing so many landspouts and few tors also twice there was sets of twins amazing day.

Just missed the Dodge city Tor but the structure on those classic sups was insane before all blobed.

3rd year in Row have been on a tor machine
Dodge 2016
NE CO June 2017
NE CO 2018

Tomorrow looking intresting in NEB but will it line to quick.

Sucks to be home 12c cold depressing, missing my 86/68


Edited by Twister1 (01/06/2018 16:07)
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#1464818 - 02/06/2018 03:04 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14961
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday the target was only just west of a tornadic supercell so would have hoped I got onto it!

Now today is very, very complex. Split sfc low features, stronger one over ND with much better back sfc winds out of the SE to ESE. A warm front is draped across ND with the backed winds crossing this feature, then a dryline of sorts extends south into SD/NE but another sfc low will form over NE, causing a second area but less substantial of backed winds. CAPE is around 2500-3500J/Kg over ND with very impressive shear but over NE a later CAP break should occur with extreme CAPE up to 5000J/Kg being released very quickly. Lapse rates are superb and certainly shear is also nice, so expecting a large hail threat again in any discrete cells and also a tornado threat but possibly a tad less than in ND where the LLJ is more substantial plus the enlarged low level hodgraphs with the warm front make it the primary target of the two. But I'll do two targets for those keen on NE as well, the structure down there could be very nice before a strong MCS bow forms into the night, racing ESE and backbuilding further and further SW/S. ND supercells will also go linear as time goes by and things might get a bit messy which is my main concern for that area but not before something tornadic I'd say.

*EDIT* Was surprised that the NE focus was not upgraded to a MOD risk and it just has been! with also an increase to 10% for tornadoes over ND. She's game on today!

Target for ND is Beulah ND and for NE it is Brewster NE

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (02/06/2018 03:12)

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