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#1462673 - 28/04/2018 00:38 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Probably time to get this thread up and running with next week starting to look like a proper plains event after what has been a slow start to the severe weather season in the traditional 'Tornado Alley'.

We arrived yesterday into Denver CO to start getting ready for another season of chasing the plains and at this stage it doesn't look like we will be waiting long to start getting in to it. Yet to fine tune the early stages of this event but it does appear that we will at the very least see some dry line activity from west KS up into Nebraska and South Dakota on Monday with things becoming more widespread into Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper system starts to overspread the plains.

Obviously too early to think about precise target areas just yet but will probably head up towards SD on Monday for starters.

All going well we will try and share a few pics over the next couple of months as we find some interesting severe weather.
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#1462675 - 28/04/2018 08:09 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozone doug Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Have a great time Orebound . I will be watching on the chaser net or one of those lol.Been good the last few years i have watched .Keep us up to date . I will be trying to learn the setups.


Edited by ozone doug (28/04/2018 08:10)
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#1462811 - 30/04/2018 02:07 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
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Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Good that this time of the year has come around again.....only catch is once again I am not there smirk but I will virtual it as per usual!

Yea, marginal high based bangers today, nothing too exciting but if I was there it would probably be epic from my lowly South Australian standards.

Monday first good day, nice sfc low forms, bigger influx of moisture north across the alley, two main focuses, the dryline in the panhandle region of TX/OK (but severely capped) or the safer option across NE/SD but less enthralling shear vectors and turning compared to the TX panhandle. I've got a couple of targets in mind but will post tomorrow official ones to keep the 'day before' record of targets consistent.

Tuesday looks fairly strong, upper trough coming in but wednesday has the potential to be decidedly NASTY if things come together as they are looking atm. AT LEAST a MOD or possibly a HIGH risk for wed at this stage i would say. Only thing is they will be moving seriously quick, sometimes the big upper troughs can make things go linear a bit early and screw things up but will review closer to the day.

Good luck Orebound mate, you know I'll be following you closely!

TS cool

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#1462873 - 01/05/2018 00:33 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right target today is Hedley TX for the dryline, looks ok to break the cap down there, and for northern target Miller NE. Prefer the southern option down the dryline I think, bit less messy although the NE stuff should go further into the night with the cold front hanging around up there.

TS cool

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#1462904 - 01/05/2018 12:35 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozone doug Offline
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Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Few cells around Dodge city nothing severe, Night time now .Will check in tomorrow morning .


Edited by ozone doug (01/05/2018 12:36)
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#1462910 - 01/05/2018 14:48 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Thunderstruck]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Thunderstruck
Good luck Orebound mate, you know I'll be following you closely!


Thanks Rowland, I know you're always along for the ride in the virtual sense!

So yeah we decided to take the punt on the Texas panhandle option today after making our way down from Nebraska yesterday, but like most we were not entirely convinced by the low level moisture quality and the sky high bases on the initial updrafts soon drove that hunch home.

There was however a very nicely sculptured little LP number right on dusk up towards Canadian TX that made the chase worthwhile.

Spending the night in Woodward OK with a view to targeting somewhere around south central KS tomorrow in what could be quite a big day.

Will fine tune some target areas in the morning.
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#1462937 - 01/05/2018 22:30 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Fairly bullish text from the SPC this morning.

Quote:
With very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong instability in
place, the airmass will be primed for explosive thunderstorm
development once convective initiation occurs. An initially discrete
storm mode is anticipated along the dryline in KS while a clustered
storm mode is more likely along the cold front from south-central NE
across IA. Veering wind profiles are anticipated along the dryline,
with current guidance suggesting effective SRH over 250 m2/s2 and
effective bulk shear over 50 kt. These wind profiles are more than
supportive of supercells, and, given the likely discrete initial
mode, tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes are possible, particularly
near the triple point where the probability of backed surface winds
is higher. Very large hail (i.e. greater than 2 inches in diameter)
is also likely with the storms along the dry line as well as initial
development farther northeast along the cold front. The hail threat
will extend into southern WI as the low-level jet supports
thunderstorms along the frontal zone.

A Moderate Risk for tornadoes may be warranted in subsequent
outlooks but the confined nature of the threat and remaining
uncertainty regarding the location of the triple-point during the
afternoon as well as the extent of the moisture return merits
waiting for more confidence before upgrading.


Early start this morning going over the data so we are about to hit the road again shortly. Will likely be targeting the areas between say Hay KS and Salina KS initially and take it from there.
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#1462944 - 02/05/2018 02:34 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Liking your target there Orebound, looking like a very nice day.

Generally, much better setup today a quasi-stationary cold front across N KS into NE with a nice triple point over Central/N central KS and subtending dryline extending south from that down into OK and TX.

The main interest is naturally the triple point where tornado potential should be enhanced but maybe not straight away, certainly towards the evening hours SRH increased dramatically as the LLj kicks in and the inflow angle broadens the hodograph a little in the vicinity of the said triple point and S/SE of it, translating eastward.

Given some fairly swift mid level flow aloft from the divergent side of an amplifying upper low over CA, things will not exactly stand still so fair bit of keeping up may be required.

Models hinting at renewed nocturnal supercells trained along the stalled cold front where CIN is less than further south down the dryline....those cells will have a slimmer window to get tornadic I think before CIN increases and everything carks it over S KS and OK/TX, but anything that does get up down there could still put one down and chuck out some thumping hail from discrete storms.

So all that said, I think I will stick myself right in the thick of it, sitting off the dryline east into the greater tornado potential for the evening so my target will be approx Luray KS and take it from there....things will fire up well west but I think by end of the night I could end up near pushing towards the NE corner of KS.

TS cool

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#1462959 - 02/05/2018 12:32 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
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Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Incredible day out there ending with a very close intercept of the Tescott/Bennington wedge tornado.

Big day again tomorrow so early night at the first decent motel we find, will post some video in coming days.
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#1462980 - 02/05/2018 23:33 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
A couple quick clips of that wedge in KS yesterday..

Tescott KS Wedge Tornado

Target for today still undecided but heading in the general direction of south central Kansas at the moment, will refine more precise targets after more (lots) coffee.
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#1462982 - 03/05/2018 02:12 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
What a monster mate!!! you did very well, lovely footage!

So in review of yesterday, very happy with how the target played out, two main tornadic supercells, the first went right over Luray in its earlier stages before going tornadic just ENE and went on to produce a string of tornadoes south of Concordia, the second and most intense supercell formed the next chain south down the dryline and displayed multiple TVS signatures for hours before really putting down the big wedge near Tescott not far ESE of the target so virtually would have been somewhere around there! Was a hell of a hailer too as Willoughby found out!

Today is a bit messier, especially over KS/MO etc where the main feature will be the later formation of derecho/MCS structure with severe wind, but further SW we have the quasi stationary cold front draped from C KS to SW KS into the far NW OK Panhandle. A dryline then subtends south through the TX panhandle moving into W OK later in the afternoon.

Aloft there is a fairly substantial mid to upper speed max, ripping NE, stronger than yesterday as the upper trough peaks, increasing the flow aloft, so great exhaust aloft.

So firstly, the initiation should be somewhere over the far NW OK Panhandle and SW corner of KS and extreme N parts of the TX panhandles with these storms rapidly consolidating to severe complexes. Later in the afternoon the dryline will then blow up under great CAPE around 3500 J/Kg with a more explosive cap break and move into an area of better shear, improved angle of inflow across the warm sector over W OK which I like. The shear over KS is simply not as good, lesser angle from sfc flow to mid level flow which will quickly favour linear modes all apart from the more S parts of KS which certainly looks quite tasty late as the LLJ gets going from OK.

So all that considered I think I'll sit a bit more south into OK, and my target area will be around Seiling OK with stacks of road options from there, initiation will be well west of there so should allow time to pick my supercell to follow from into S KS or potentially, further S. Playing the tail end charlie might be a go today and although today looked like being the big day, I think it will be hard to top yesterday's efforts. That being said, there is a lot more moisture today and the shear is reasonably similar at peak times so that has to be noted, strong to violent tornadoes are still possible!

TS cool

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#1462983 - 03/05/2018 06:50 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Few nice supercells have erupted on the dryline, the best two look to be passing south of Seiling so dropping down towards Clinton for the intercept, could play all 3 cells as they come up.

TS cool

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#1463015 - 03/05/2018 14:55 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks mate.

Here's a bit of a still from that Tescott tor...


Tescott KS Wedge Tornado
by Orebound Images, on Flickr

Tough day out there today in western OK. in spite of storm mode staying quite discreet for much of the day there were only a couple very brief tornadoes reported. We saw some extremely good attempts however with rapid tightening of the meso occurring numerous times on the storm we targeted triggering plenty of tornado warnings but to no avail. Very photogenic supercell however.
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#1463018 - 03/05/2018 15:02 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4916
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Great video & image Orebound.
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#1463106 - 04/05/2018 14:11 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Thanks Eddy.

Ridging going to dominate the plains for an extended period now so off to Utah and Nevada (Vegas) for a week or so until the next round of severe weather in the alley. The break from chasing is always welcomed.

Here's another pic from up in Kansas, this is the same cell that went on to produce the above tornado a couple of hours later after many attempts at wrapping up.


Kansas Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1463272 - 06/05/2018 21:50 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
That Tescott tornado we chased last week was anylized as an EF 3, quite strong.

Starting to see some agreement on a reasonable system affecting the plains later next week. Way too early to put in the bank but watching closely.
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#1464021 - 17/05/2018 23:48 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right looks like things might take a step up from the garden variety activity that has been over the plains for the last week (certainly by tornado alley standards in May, would still be pretty epic down here)

Nice mid to upper trough out west slowly moving in, inducing sfc low over CO. Return flow is modest but the angle isn't too bad, but overall bulk shear is only average. Nevertheless, CAPE is large and general forcing is good so should see some strong eruptions on the dryline over CO/TX moving east into KS and general OK from the panhandle regions. SPC have enhanced 2% tornado probs over far N CO but not hugely convinced of the grunt up there, shear and SRH is good enough for something but stronger storms will persist down the dryline and may take over with more southern position impeding flow into N CO. Will target the Holly CO to Syracuse KS area and take it from there along the I50.

TS cool

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#1464023 - 18/05/2018 00:15 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Good work Rowland.

I have been a bit slack in posting to the thread but with the huge miles we are doing every day it is simply too hard to find the time. You kind of just roll into a town at 10 or 11 at night, have a couple beers and hit the sack before getting on the road early again the next day. Have just ticked over 13,000km for the first 3 weeks here so we're certainly not letting the grass grow under our feet.

As you mentioned, things have been rather garden variety by US standards but certainly not uninteresting. We have managed to find some incredible sructure and some seriously angry large hail machines across Nebraska, Wyoming, New Mexico, Texas and Colorado over the past week. That long-tracked thing off the Denver foothills that tracked all the way into central Kansas a few days ago way while chucking out 3 and 4 inch hail the whole way was incredible although it did manage to put a few chasers off the road for a couple days while they found alternatives to their totalled chase vehicles!

As for today, I'm of much the same opinion as you. We drove up from Amarillo TX late yesterday to Lamar CO and at this stage I don't see a lot of need to go pushing too far north at all today. Will stay put here for the time being as it looks like being another very late initiation anyway.

Tomorrow looks marginally better in terms of tornado potential in my opinion but I certainly won't be surprised to see one or two show up today.

See how we go.

A couple quick pics from around the joint over the past week or so...


Carey TX Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr


Kansas Supercell
by Orebound Images, on Flickr
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#1464030 - 18/05/2018 10:10 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Great shots mate!!

Looking a bit dry today tbh, was a tad worried about that but nothing is rooting down into the low levels in the target area, all staying mostly in the TX Panhandle and OK Panhandle area so prob would have shot down to maybe intercept those but tbh even those are only average severe so maybe a bust today I think and prepare for tomorrow which looks much better.

TS cool

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#1464060 - 19/05/2018 00:49 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Very tricky one today, it's definitely better than yesterday but we will have two main areas to focus on.

Upper level shortwave still slowly moving through, but a nice sfc low forms over E CO during the afternoon and deepens. Southerly to SSE LLJ comes in later with moisture and a nice dryline goes up from the TX Panhandle through OK Panhandle into western KS with triple point further NW.

Storms should fire off the CO ranges and move east, quickly going super cellular. Then the dryline should take off, firstly over the N TX Panhandle where enhanced sfc convergence is quite marked on the charts with a near dryline buldge there. The sfc flow here is back a little and moisture isn't too bad so some strong supercells should crank here first. Then the gap fills in up the dryline over W KS with the entire dryline going up and turning into a big raging linear MCS feature into the night through much of KS and parts of N OK. I'd imagine a ripping lightning show once this gets going.

But tornado wise, it's nothing flash but much better than yesterday with strong forcing and a little better shear. Still lacking a bit in the mids but there could be some lovely sculptured storms at first before the moisture comes in and makes them all angry and HP. Best tornado chance is the transition to the HP mode but they could be wrapped quickly with the average shear. With the later cap break and more E vectors of the SFC flow around the top of the low I will go more for W KS somewhere around the area of Garden City KS to Dodge City KS and see how we go. Initiation likely further west but will wait for them to come to me.

TS cool

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#1464064 - 19/05/2018 11:27 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Whole multitude of cells formed south of the target area and then just west of, blessed for choice, but generally too many have got up along the dryline too quickly, many exhibited suspicious characteristics for brief periods but got choked out by all the other cells wanting a pieace of the pie. The far NNW corner of KS seems to have avoided the choking and a multi vortex tornado reported there and a nice stand alone LP in Quinter out the front also avoiding the bad air and getting that easterly over the top of the low I was mentioning. So hard to say where I would have gone but lots to choose and now MCS line is forming for the big show through KS tonight so would trail that then overnight in W central KS ready for tomorrow.

TS cool

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#1464135 - 21/05/2018 12:05 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozthunder Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3117
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Sorry I have been busy this year I have not had much time to review the USA targets. Seems to be a very slow year however = if same here, a great Aussie season.

Some of the longer term models for GFS are better not looked at. Death Ridge from hell, than flipping to an upper cool low east of the plains = wrong direction mid and upper flows on plains.

Still wish I was there however !
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#1464283 - 25/05/2018 03:50 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Right, have got lazy last few days but would have been playing the SW TX/NM region for a few days before shooting north yest to chase NE/NE CO area.

Today, I'm liking the uplsope flow into E CO and far W KS. Sfc low deepens late, CAPE is not that large but increases into KS later, should see multicells and maybe a supercell or two forming over E CO roughly at the I-70 corridor latitude....then picking up heading east into W KS. Targeting Burlington CO to Goodland KS along that corridor.

There is another option in E ND but that's a bit far to be driving for similar strength activity.

TS cool

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#1464334 - 26/05/2018 04:30 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well would have scored a nice cluster of multicells yest near the target, but nothing terribly strong!

Today things shift south into OK, been bit of an MCS overnight so things are a bit supressed for now behind it but recovery should occur and new cells should fire up over the TX Panhandle and SW OK. Especially keen to chase near the lingering OFB from the said MCS to see if that can do anything. Not really a tornado day but ample CAPE should allow for large to very large hail and damaging winds. Targeting Sayre to Erick OK and tracking more SSE from there as steering is quite abnormal.

TS cool

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#1464372 - 27/05/2018 01:15 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
That would have been a reasonable target mate, a very nicely structured cell went up right over Sayre in the late afternoon but didn't sustain long after dark with increasing CIN putting it to bed quickly.

We met up with Willoughby and Brayden and targeted an area a bit further west earlier in the afternoon. The lone cell we were on to the SE of Canadian TX remained relatively high-based but did take on some lovely LP structure for a period and even produced a couple persistent funnels before succumbing to the CAP later in the evening. Plenty of hail etc too.

Day off chasing today while we travel north to Nebraska/Wyoming or even the Dakotas for tomorrow.
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#1464391 - 27/05/2018 13:24 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4916
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Was just going through your photos Orebound, you have some lovely images in your account.

I noticed a pic of Hoover dam, the water level looks very low, what was the water level at?
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#1464426 - 28/05/2018 00:35 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Tough one to pick today, broad area of potential from TX/OK Panhandle, through western KS, E/NE CO, SW NE and even possibly far S SD. Two main areas stand out...

Firstly, Far NE CO around sfc low there and closer proximity to mid level speed max atop upper shortwave coming through plus less capping. But terrible veer, back veer, develops which could mess things up after initial discrete cells.

Secondly, cleaner more discrete potential down into SW KS but much more capping and less forcing, although a better depth and stronger LLJ comes in late in the day than further N and less chance of veer, back veer shear.

Now given I would have made the drive N from OK yest, I'd have initially thought of the SD/NE option as that looked good but less so today. Nevertheless I think I'll be stuck with that so thinking perhaps just into SW NE from CO and will target Brule NE but also like Scott City KS. Real roughie to play frontal zone more N is Cody NE

TS cool

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#1464427 - 28/05/2018 01:20 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: EddyG]
Orebound Offline
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Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Was just going through your photos Orebound, you have some lovely images in your account.

I noticed a pic of Hoover dam, the water level looks very low, what was the water level at?


Thanks Eddie, I appreciate that.

As for Hoover Dam, I'm sorry I didn't really pay any attention to what the exact water level was at but as you said it was extremely low - by far the lowest I have seen it and it appears as though the levels have continued to fall.

Yes Rowland, tough day today and not really a day that screams anything too over the top. Storm modes look questionable later in the evening and yeah, that VBV is a real worry.

We drove the 500 or 600 miles up from Elk City OK to Sidney NE yesterday and don't really see any need to move too far from here at this stage. Bulk shear looks much better too our west over in Wyoming but there is currently some pretty ordinary dew point depressions over there that will need watching.

So for the time being it's just a wait and watch situation but we'll most likely just be poking around the i-80 corridor somewhere between Cheyenne WY and the far NE corner of Colorado.

Big step up in tornado potential tomorrow and Tuesday for sure.
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#1464433 - 28/05/2018 09:26 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Wet Snow Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 17/06/2002
Posts: 5978
Loc: Mena, Polk County, Arkansas; e...
^^^Hello Eddy G.:
In response to your question: Hoover Dam holds back Lake Mead and as of today (Sunday, May 27th), the level of Lake Mead is 1,080.89FT/329.53M above Mean Sea Level (MSL), which is 148.11FT/45.15M below Full Pool level.

Kind Wishes & Take Care~~~Wet Snow

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#1464435 - 28/05/2018 09:51 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4916
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks Orebound and Wet Snow
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#1464440 - 28/05/2018 10:58 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
BIG T Offline
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Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1088
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
i was over there in 2016 and they were saying with the drought and population growth around vegas , the water in lake mead will run out within 15 years, and there were no plans afoot to deal with it. Along with that , hoover provides a lot of juice for the power grid , not sure where it goes , but that would impact also.

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#1464470 - 29/05/2018 01:53 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday was a mixed bag, copious storms around Brule NE and a nice late one near Cody and a single storm near Scott City KS but no tornado. Big one in WY however with more easterly component but heavily rain wrapped.

Today is a better day, not enormous but a step up. Two main areas catch my attention. NE CO/SE WY and NW KS.

Firstly we have a nice upper shortwave moving in with stronger winds through the mids which will cause a better forced ascent of all activity over the target areas. Nice LLJ response later into KS as well ahead of the dryline which will erupt.

The CO/WY area sees discrete supercells forming quickly and making the most of the upslope regime there with a nice easterly component. Simla tornado rings a bell from a similar setup but perhaps not quite as good as that. Should see quite a few spread ENE from Denver and into WY from there and east towards KS/NE borders. I'm interested in a boundary over NE CO later that could be ingested into any storms moving towards it for enhanced tornado potential.

Further east we have the second option of the dryline and that should explode into a large line of storms. The CAPE is 3000-3500j/Kg so no worries there and shear comes into play nicely later, especially as LLJ really kicks in after dark opening a tornado window. The only question is there may be so much convection it could have formed an enormous linear squall line by then as some models show but anything discrete could get going, even all the way down towards the OK panhandle is not without a tornado chance for the tail end charlie.

But overall after finishing yest in SW NE, I'd be targeting NE CO today so will think around the Akron to Platner CO area and take it from there. For those targeting WY Burns looks ok and for those in KS I'd be looking at about Oakley KS

*edit* after checking the NAM 3Km, I realised that the CO target has PDS TOR forecast on the soundings, not too shabby, lets see if it can produce!

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (29/05/2018 02:00)

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#1464497 - 29/05/2018 14:52 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Big day up here in NE Colorado today with multiple landspout tornadoes putting on a show prior to us getting up close and personal with a fairly intense multi-vortex wedge prior to it wrapping in rain and bombing us with large hail. We also managed to see a lovely little rope tornado that appeared to be a satellite moving back towards the main circulation before disappearing into heavy rain.

I almost didn't target this particular storm in the early stages given its initiation point well north of the boundary, but it soon hooked hard right and anchored which was enough to put us and the next 500 chasers in the area on it.

The day finished with major chaser convergence at a steak joint in Burlington CO with most of the aussie contingent all showing up which was nice.

Early start tomorrow with a fairly big drive down to Oklahoma for what looks like another reasonable tornado day on the plains.

Here's a fairly low quality shot of a pair of spouts that occurred early in the life-cycle of this storm, it is considered quite unusual for landspouts and mesocyclonic tornadoes to occur from the same storm.


Landspout Tornado Twins
by Orebound Images, on Flickr

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#1464510 - 29/05/2018 18:10 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1088
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Speak for myself but probably for many when I say I appreciate the effort you guys put back into this thread. Im loving it, I will be over there at some stage one year but until then , live it via you fellas. Keep it coming please. Amd thanks.

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#1464550 - 30/05/2018 00:56 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Amazing day yest in NE CO, target certainly paid off, a quick drop south was all that was needed to get this monster landspout and tornado producing supercell.

Great shot too Orebound, bloody awesome stuff.

Today is another good day, perhaps a shade down on yest but a good plains/alley day in more traditional areas. Expecting dryline to take off through KS especially with numerous severe storms, discrete at first but quickly congealing to linear through the middle as mid level jet takes over from upper shortwave to west....should see more discrete modes down the dryline into NW OK and this will be my area today. LLJ comes in later, not as easterly as yest but enough to warrant a brief tornado window as sunset approaches and for a while after, especially if anything can remain discrete down near the tail end charlie. Very large hail also a threat today, could see baseballs even softballs so watch out. Target around Vici OK and take it from there, initiation likely well west into TX/OK Panhandle and SW KS.

TS cool

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#1464654 - 31/05/2018 01:57 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday sure put out some massive classic and HP supercells in the enhanced risk area with the Vici OK target smack bang in the middle of one supercell to the SW near Wheeler TX and another near Waynoka, both tornadic, but nothing directly overhead. Would have gone for the closer Waynoka HP, certainly impressive!

Today the focus shifts west and the intensity of things decreases but still a chance of a strong MCS/derecho threat overnight through the N OK regions.

Dryline mixes west today, initiation over SE CO/ far NW OK Panhandle and TX Panhandle. Should rapidly intensify and move into more favourable conditions are they go eastward, nice LLJ comes in and decent moisture. Stronger bulk shear 45-55knots, that mid level shortwave and associated jet will get them moving and will bow them out quickly if the LLJ cannot balance the inflow out in time. But a brief tornado window in the discrete stages before this, especially in NW OK. CAPE is again very large so very large to giant hail to 4 inches is possible again.

Targeting Guymon OK and take things from there, best tornado threat perhaps a little ESE but will need to pick my cell coming in from CO/NM firstly.

TS cool

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#1464656 - 31/05/2018 04:36 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: BIG T]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: BIG T
Speak for myself but probably for many when I say I appreciate the effort you guys put back into this thread. Im loving it, I will be over there at some stage one year but until then , live it via you fellas. Keep it coming please. Amd thanks.


No problem mate, I wish we had more time to do a few more updates from over here.

Yes Rowland, we targeted that Waynoka beast up in northern OK from initiation to after sunset and in spite of going HP it still managed to put down a brief tornado. The storm up near Dodge City was the one that got away however with a magnificent long-lived stove pipe coming from that one as well as a large multi-vortex close to sunset.

We have moved over into the western panhandle today and are currently at Boise City waiting for initiation back over in NM - see how we go.

Preliminary report from the Colorado tornado-fest the other day.

https://www.weather.gov/bou/MemorialDay2018Tornadoes



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#1464723 - 01/06/2018 01:21 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Strong HP supercell in the N OK Panhandle yest, followed by a couple more trailing supercells, lots of wind damage but no tornado, target faired well with Guymon copping hits from both rounds of storms.

Today would have resulted in a massive relocation. For many that wouldn't have been an option had one chased the panhandles all day yest but anyone who didn't will be presented with a chance in ND today and maybe also in MT but I like the LLJ and SE/E sfc flow undercutting a nice mid level shortwave, plenty of CAPE so definitely not without a shot. Target of Medora ND and see how it goes from there.

TS cool

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#1464769 - 01/06/2018 16:03 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 561
Loc: Chadstone Vic
NE CO day was amazing so many landspouts and few tors also twice there was sets of twins amazing day.

Just missed the Dodge city Tor but the structure on those classic sups was insane before all blobed.

3rd year in Row have been on a tor machine
Dodge 2016
NE CO June 2017
NE CO 2018

Tomorrow looking intresting in NEB but will it line to quick.

Sucks to be home 12c cold depressing, missing my 86/68


Edited by Twister1 (01/06/2018 16:07)
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#1464818 - 02/06/2018 03:04 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday the target was only just west of a tornadic supercell so would have hoped I got onto it!

Now today is very, very complex. Split sfc low features, stronger one over ND with much better back sfc winds out of the SE to ESE. A warm front is draped across ND with the backed winds crossing this feature, then a dryline of sorts extends south into SD/NE but another sfc low will form over NE, causing a second area but less substantial of backed winds. CAPE is around 2500-3500J/Kg over ND with very impressive shear but over NE a later CAP break should occur with extreme CAPE up to 5000J/Kg being released very quickly. Lapse rates are superb and certainly shear is also nice, so expecting a large hail threat again in any discrete cells and also a tornado threat but possibly a tad less than in ND where the LLJ is more substantial plus the enlarged low level hodgraphs with the warm front make it the primary target of the two. But I'll do two targets for those keen on NE as well, the structure down there could be very nice before a strong MCS bow forms into the night, racing ESE and backbuilding further and further SW/S. ND supercells will also go linear as time goes by and things might get a bit messy which is my main concern for that area but not before something tornadic I'd say.

*EDIT* Was surprised that the NE focus was not upgraded to a MOD risk and it just has been! with also an increase to 10% for tornadoes over ND. She's game on today!

Target for ND is Beulah ND and for NE it is Brewster NE

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (02/06/2018 03:12)

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#1465078 - 06/06/2018 01:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well few quieter days after the last target, loads of tornado warned supercells across ND east of the target but all went linear quickly. One confirmed tornado in ND.

Would have ducked to NM for a couple of days then back N today for ND/SD, not that flash but something about and coming days ok as well.

Targeting around Steele ND

TS cool

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#1465150 - 07/06/2018 01:15 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Toughie yest with things not firing until dark and then it was active but messy, cleaner storms over W SD.

Today we have 3 main areas of focus, upslope flow and discrete storms over N WY, dryline storms down W KS from SW NE and boundary storms over IA and E NE. The KS option should produce a ripping MCS later as it rages ESE towards OK. Elevated and discrete early over CO before moving east into SW NE and W/NW KS and encountering a significant boost in CAPE, up to 6000J/kg with a nice SE LLJ in KS especially. Might go linear quickly but any of this area will do ok. The OFB in E NE should fire up some strong storms as well but not a huge fan of southward moving ones.

Targeting around Russell Spring KS but may need to move a fair way if things get linear too quick.

TS cool

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#1465192 - 07/06/2018 17:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Slight risk for storms.
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 AM CDT Wed Jun 06 2018

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon
and evening especially across the north-central High Plains.

...North-central High Plains to middle Mississippi Valley...
Early-day storms may linger over parts of the upper/middle
Mississippi River Valley on Friday, with these storms likely to
shift east-southeastward during the day away from a greater
reservoir of moisture and instability. The potential for severe
thunderstorms appears a bit higher farther west across the central
High Plains vicinity later in the day.

Near the crest of the upper ridge, near-neutral height tendencies
and weak low-level upslope flow should be sufficient for isolated
storm development across the central High Plains by Friday mid/late
afternoon, with a greater coverage of storms probable Friday night
as warm advection increases, with the 00Z ECMWF particularly
supportive of an MCS-related scenario Friday night. Regardless, it
currently appears that the most severe-favorable environment and
likelihood of at least isolated to widely scattered storm
development Friday afternoon into Friday night will be from far
eastern Wyoming into western/northern Nebraska and southern South
Dakota. If/where storms develop, a moderate to strongly unstable air
mass and 30-40 kt of effective shear would support severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging winds.

..Guyer.. 06/06/2018
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Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1465211 - 08/06/2018 02:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: ozone doug]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well yesterday's target was heavily capped and didn't fire till well after dark! pointless by then really but far SW NE and NE CO did so would have re-positoned there. But nothing like the amazing tornado that Willoughy, Brayden and Greg got in Laramie WY!!!! Best I've seen since the Campo magic in 2010 and just about the only people in the world on it!

Now today, potential for some more nice supercells across MT/WY especially and given I'd be somewhere probably in WY I'd make a trip into SE/E MT and go for the clear air there today. Shortwave aloft with some nice SFC SE slow so enough veering with height and bulk shear approx 40knots. Supercells initialy wity some very large hail quite possible before things get messy. Never know what could happen in this part of the world like yesterday did show. Target around Tusler MT and take from there, road options in many directions if need to move.

TS cool

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#1465212 - 08/06/2018 02:58 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Damn can't delete, on second thoughts given slacker shear I'll try a bit more SW as don't want things to have lined out by then. Target moved to Wyola MT.

TS cool

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#1465278 - 09/06/2018 03:38 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Plenty of strong storms in WY/MT yest to choose from, lots of hail but no tornado!

Today looks better for holding some stronger discrete cells off the Black Range in SD, large CAPE up to 3500J/kg with nice easterly compoment jutting into that area, could be a lovely sculptured supercell or two with mothership potential...and very large hail.

Targeting Wall SD today.

TS cool

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#1465395 - 11/06/2018 08:26 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Worked alright that target with nice LP supercell forming off the Black Hills and moving over Rapid City with a further cluster of more substantial storms forming just SE o of Wall.

Late for todays target but a similar area! Just more NW, have been keen on the Sturgis/Whitewood SD area. lovely turning and good chance of discrete cells so needs to be watched.

TS cool

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#1465437 - 11/06/2018 23:36 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Yesterday worked ok in the end though would have had to drive north to the cell of the day which was most impressive but didn't quite produce.

Don't mind today again, more SE however as cold front sweeps down from the N. Angle of low level flow is mostly southerly however near the frontal boundary over NE especially early there is some backing of sfc winds to the ESE so I'll target that area. Should eventually see the cold front take over and sweep down into KS with storms firing right along it further and further SW.

Target Sterling NE Will start here and likely have to keep ahead of the advancing line moving into NE KS later most likely.

TS cool

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#1465645 - 15/06/2018 02:25 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Wow it looks VERY GOOD today for far northern ND and into Canada, some seriously strong shear down in the lowers with vigourous LLJ backing with a big easterly component atop a nice little low with a strong mid jet and better upper jet aloft. Highly organised environment and we could easily see some violent and long-tracked tornadoes. Looks like the best day of the season by a country light year but not sure how many will be out.

Target is tricky, Canada is safer but ND could well see some monsters on the tail end of the supercell cluster so will give a target in ND and also one for anyone heading to Canada a little more N.


Target for ND is Bowbells ND and take it from there, best potential is probably east of there if a long-tracker can get going and for Canada I'll go for about Moosomin Saskatchewan but also likely to track into Manitoba.

TS cool



Edited by Thunderstruck (15/06/2018 02:27)

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#1465780 - 17/06/2018 03:01 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Well the other day was a bit underwhwelming as got messy over SK but Bowbells was a great spot to catch a few supercells over ND/SK border, one went tornadic into Minatoba.

Today its interesting, strong forcing and very large CAPE, nice shear. Targeting far eastern SD into MN....official target of Graceville MN for nice tornado potential, could surprise today.

TS cool

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#1465966 - 18/06/2018 23:45 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Target went ok the other day but no tornado, just some strong storms!! forgot one for yesterday as was tired and of course a lone tornado in far NE CO!!!

Today fairly marginal but will play the upslope flow in NE CO/SE WY Both regions could score a tornado but target wise will go for around Buyers/Last Chance CO and go from there.

TS cool

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#1466096 - 19/06/2018 23:43 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Big storms just north of the target area yest would have caught them fairly easily, loads of amazing hooks but perhaps only a brief tornado reported.

Today looks strong, shortwave trough rockets through increasing shear. Upslope regime should fire in CO but a boundary sitting over western KS will blow too. Given Id have finished in CO yea Id play that stuff first but I think the KS storms could be more numerous but not nec as clean.

Target of roughly the Arlington CO area but for those playing KS I think Garden City KS is alright

TS cool

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#1466153 - 20/06/2018 20:40 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 561
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Cant wait till you get over there one day mate you are a guru at it already.
Though as you would know it changes so much when you there but million times more fun.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1466160 - 20/06/2018 21:06 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Twister1]
Orebound Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/12/2009
Posts: 2385
Loc: Port Hedland WA / Darwin NT
Originally Posted By: Twister1
Cant wait till you get over there one day mate you are a guru at it already.
Though as you would know it changes so much when you there but million times more fun.


Yeah I'm looking forward to getting him over there for a season real soon too mate. We all better look out though I reckon, he's hitting those targets a bit too often laugh

That nice photogenic trunk near Keenesburg CO today certainly made me keen for next season already!
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#1466218 - 21/06/2018 20:28 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 561
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Yeah after the last 6 seasons in a row, i said i take next year off but after this year now im not sure lol,

Yeah nice sups last few days.

Yeah sure Lennie do quite well over there but as we know sometimes being there does change things and your targets etc.

Missing the open road late arvo storms the food and 30/20c so much
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#1466269 - Yesterday at 01:25 Re: 2018 U.S Severe Weather Season [Re: Orebound]
Thunderstruck Offline
Lightning man

Registered: 10/05/2001
Posts: 14929
Loc: Seaford Meadows, SA
Haha, yea all In can do is make targets in here and learn small scale stuff. Already learnt more about the weird Denver cyclone stuff this season than in any prior. I'm always a sponge in met!

Well the other day my target was a bit south of the keenesburg tornado but could have shot north to intercept the Limon monster fairly easily.

Today looks GUSTY and windy. Bulk shear is right up from prev days as strong upper support moves in from the west, moisture advection is ok but perhaps a little dry. No issues with instability, prob see some nice splitting discrete big boys over SE CO, then forming into a large MCS/derecho of sorts over western KS later or the OK/TX Panhandle into N OK with a serious wind threat, man will blow semis of the road if it gets cranking. Tornado chance small but possible, pob maximised over SE CO or the OK/TX panhandle, the latte especially so on HRRR.

Target for now is Springfield/Campo CO and take it from there.

TS cool


Edited by Thunderstruck (Yesterday at 01:26)

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