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#1462781 - 29/04/2018 20:49 Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1308
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Hey guys,

As I said a couple of days back, I thought I'd
Start a thread with it looking like the first pair
Of cold fronts for may moving through.

The chance western vic could see a band of
Rain with the first front on Thursday, but reducing
To showers as it moves east. Could get possibly a
Dusting of snow on the highest alpine peaks?

Second front at this stage looks a little colder
With showers mainly southern and mountain areas
With more likely snow showers through lower
Alpine areas.imo

Finally at least something small to chat about
👍

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#1462850 - 30/04/2018 18:38 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Thanks DS: here's GFS's latest guess on rain from front No.1:


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#1462899 - 01/05/2018 11:30 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Only little or more rain will help grow winter grass will change it quick...

Most people forgotten winter cloths and only wear night time thick clothes..





Edited by chasers addict (01/05/2018 11:30)

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#1462938 - 01/05/2018 22:57 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
Sunday front has really backed off now sad times there

Thursday front best of year so far everyone gets rain but very fast moving and rain shadows will come into play.
N vic get 1-5mm and rasied dust and windy

IT IS DIRE in N NW Vic so so dry

All of next week fine and partly cloudy so no rain for a week or more after this front

Crazy
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1462951 - 02/05/2018 10:41 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Good (though not very cheery) summing up Twister. East Gippsland to get max about 3mm but maybe 0mm out of each of Thursday and Sunday's fronts. Things getting desperate in this area too.

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#1462956 - 02/05/2018 11:47 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very bad under average rainfall of 10mm for April and from Jan to April we only had 46.7mm out of 142.7mm..

The northern country more likely between 0mm to 10mm

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#1462993 - 03/05/2018 09:39 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Really over this useless weather!! Sick of the smoke, and above all else the stubborn high pressure systems, and lack of decent rain and storms!!! This pattern has lasted for far too long, and Iíve had enough of it. When will it RAIN PROPERLY?! mad mad mad mad

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#1462996 - 03/05/2018 11:33 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
It's 3rd May. 11.30am temp 27C. Dust thick on the roads. Paddocks becoming bare. ... 3rd May ... just sayin'

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#1463003 - 03/05/2018 13:06 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
With a 28.0C temp - probably the max as high cloud coming through atm - I think Bairnsdale has broken its May record high (was 27.8C).

Warm, gusty NW wind, clouding over.

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#1463007 - 03/05/2018 13:37 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1239
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
Yep Bairnsdale hit 28.0 at the 1200 weather station report
_________________________
The storms are always beyond the horizon, behind the trees or parting above your head

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#1463009 - 03/05/2018 13:48 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
EAST SALE BOM -

03/05 1:00pm 27.7 24.4 6.5 26 11.2 N 13 17 7 9 1009.1 - 0.0

Very mild pleasant day, not good for shoveling a 600mmpower trench though, dead dry all the way down - hose fixed it !


Edited by samboz (03/05/2018 13:54)

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#1463011 - 03/05/2018 14:18 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
From Vic Obs, Max's today -

Orbost - 29.4C at 1401hrs

Bairnsdale - 28.8C at 1155hrs

East Sale - 28.2C at 1350hrs.

Bit ridiculous nearly 30C in May !!


Edited by samboz (03/05/2018 14:20)

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#1463028 - 03/05/2018 17:17 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Still around 26C here at 5.15 pm. Wind has dropped. An apocalyptic feel to the air: low thin cloud holding smoke underneath it with a brown glow in the western sky and sun on the hills to the east.

Official BoM forecast has this area at 2-6mm for next 24 hr. EC model is not very positive at all.

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#1463040 - 03/05/2018 18:32 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Saw that inversion layer here y'day TB, dark smoke rising vertically, then a 90 degree lid on it and dissipated from there.

(Re apocalyptic feel, if loud music and helo' rotors heard, start digging a hole. :D)

RH wasn't real high today, bit humid but not to bad, apart from the dry conditions a very nice & mild Autumn day for May.

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#1463041 - 03/05/2018 18:33 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Car gauge indicated 30C at Paynesville around midday!!

Strong N'ly wind in patches between Stratford and Bairnsdale, mostly calm in Maffra. Despite baro falling to 1005 hPa.



Edited by Petros (03/05/2018 18:35)

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#1463050 - 03/05/2018 19:21 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1308
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Unbelievable temps for may around the
Gippsland area that's for sure!!

Currently a roaring warm nor wester blowing
Up here and 23c lol rediculous up here for
This time of year

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#1463052 - 03/05/2018 19:59 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
logansi Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 17/11/2014
Posts: 1123
Loc: Portland, Southwest - Victoria
City still in the low 20's at 8pm in May - that would be rare too
_________________________
Located in Moorabbin Vic or Portland Vic smile

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#1463068 - 03/05/2018 22:54 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Twister1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/12/2006
Posts: 573
Loc: Chadstone Vic
SW, W, NW, NC all doing well 5-10mm in NW and 10-20mm for most others which is great and best rain in 5 months.

Melb 5-10mm looking good higher east burbs and dandys

GREAT to see SOME rain for all of inland Vic MUCH MUCH needed

Sadly no rain after this for 10-14 days, amazing pattern we are in Killing farmers hopes of good crop if goes into June which I think it will.
_________________________
Bring on the STORMS

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#1463073 - 04/05/2018 00:05 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
East Sale - 03/11:41pm 21.9C.

At home - 22.2C, warm NW strengthened since around 2300hrs.

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#1463074 - 04/05/2018 00:38 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5990
Loc: Dural
Obscene temps at that time of night.

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#1463076 - 04/05/2018 06:42 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 596
Loc: Corryong
We have had 17mm beautiful rain overnight so far.

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#1463079 - 04/05/2018 07:20 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
So far not enough rain to register - AWS Bairnsdale, Nowa Nowa Moornapa showing 1 or 2 mm. Radar shows still showers in stream to the west.

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#1463082 - 04/05/2018 08:11 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
2MM @ home, rattled the place locally with gusts at E/Sale to 69kph.

Excellent Alexia, very handy for yr pasture.

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#1463099 - 04/05/2018 12:22 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had good 18mm overnight now 16c at 12.15pm

I agree we only get good rains by cold monsoon and Mediterranean climate is effecting SA and VIC....

Sad on way back to stubborn High Pressure and next front/ change is weak by Saturday May 13th...

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#1463104 - 04/05/2018 13:13 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Some superb (and probably well-timed) rain around the State.

Have missed out here - not quite 0.5mm in gauge and looks like that's all there is to be. Literally has not settled the dust.

WATL seems excited for several days out - must peruse the models!

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#1463105 - 04/05/2018 13:18 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: ThunderBob]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Originally Posted By: ThunderBob

WATL seems excited for several days out - must peruse the models!


All the excitement seems to come from ECMWF on 11/12 May in eastern Vic. 11 May in Gippsland is 100mm+ But there's no support from other models.

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#1463108 - 04/05/2018 15:56 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
18MM is handy ca grin

ECL perhaps with the S/E airflow ECMWF forecasts ?

ACCESS has a low approaching S/E Aus, be nice to see this reach fruition, unfortunately the WZ ACCESS maps for that period (11/12) don't show much advancement or Northward movement of the low.





Edited by samboz (04/05/2018 15:56)

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#1463118 - 04/05/2018 18:47 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
3mm for us along with a reminder that winter is looming - heater on tonight!

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#1463120 - 04/05/2018 19:05 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6352
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
18.8mm all up
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1463150 - 05/05/2018 11:00 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1308
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
11mm up here yesterday to kick May off!
Very nice hail shower passed through late
Yesterday just to remind me we are still heading
Toward winter.
Sat on 9c for most of yesterday arvo

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#1463191 - 05/05/2018 22:13 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Back to mild 21c here today.

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#1463223 - 06/05/2018 14:34 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 596
Loc: Corryong
we have been away couple days another 3mm in gauge. Yes Samboz we are the lucky ones at the moment I think.

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#1463245 - 06/05/2018 18:31 Re: Pair of cold fronts- 3/5 - 8/5/18 showers and possibly alpine snow [Re: doogasnow]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Fine, calm, sunny 23C here today.

Playing around with 1T of water on recently planted dusty couch at Royal Maffra this arvo (trying to keep March works alive - too dry to do new work since) - jeez the cut-off low possible for later this coming week (if it comes off) is very much needed in Gippsland.

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