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#1463409 - 08/05/2018 19:31 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
GFS keener for Sale/Maffra than is ACCESS, BOM forecasts still with very large variables eg -Sale, on Sat 20 to 100mm.

Orbost has consistently featured as the wet area, up to 200mm for the event on BOM, a lot of catchments N of there may have high mm/hr rainfall on the given figures and lots of runoff.

Could see dry Snowy River flats under water by the end of ECL event.......not quite as likely for Mitchell River (Lindenow/Bairnsdale), time will tell !

This is a ripper of an ECL/RAIN/SNOW event.

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#1463422 - 09/05/2018 07:17 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Local BOM (Andy KEMP) on local ABC this morning is forecasting 100 to 150mm for East Gippy out of this ECL.

Missed South/West Gippy forecast unfortunately.

Wondering if we can call this an Autumn Break this late, also wondering just how much growth will result.

Ground temps would still be higher than normal, rests a bit on how the climate meanders from now on, TB thoughts your patch ?

Round Sale, I think it'll green up quickly and take some pressure off but not enough to cease hand feeding. Those on the land have a long wait and months of feeding out ahead before Spring.

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#1463440 - 09/05/2018 11:30 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good news the freezing altitude looks good by Thursday 12pm.
Snow is likely to most of Divided ranges from West Victoria to NSW.

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#1463446 - 09/05/2018 15:45 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
The progged falls still widely differ. As to any growth, Samboz: I'm certainly no expert but I think there's good prospects of some growth.

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#1463451 - 09/05/2018 16:17 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 118
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
As much as i hate the COLD , i will be wishing the best for you Samboz poke

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#1463461 - 09/05/2018 18:07 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rain arriving in SW Vic coastal regions now, .....so we sit back and watch what evolves smile - or not frown

Most areas in Vic's southern half should get useful rain, and as usual, some regions will get "lucky".

One things now for sure, the synoptic's as they are now, are "running to plan" as prognosed by most models over recent days:




[edit] - getting pretty unsettled outside here now after a calm sunny day, wind chimes dancing away...


Edited by Petros (09/05/2018 18:10)

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#1463462 - 09/05/2018 18:15 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz
Local BOM (Andy KEMP) on local ABC this morning is forecasting 100 to 150mm for East Gippy out of this ECL.

Missed South/West Gippy forecast unfortunately.

Wondering if we can call this an Autumn Break this late, also wondering just how much growth will result.

Ground temps would still be higher than normal, rests a bit on how the climate meanders from now on, TB thoughts your patch ?

Round Sale, I think it'll green up quickly and take some pressure off but not enough to cease hand feeding. Those on the land have a long wait and months of feeding out ahead before Spring.


Soil temp down in low teens at Royal Maffra Samboz. For my 2 bob's, grass production post this (I'd call it the Autumn break - albiet late) will depend if, and how long it takes to get back to the odd 20C day again.

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#1463468 - 09/05/2018 19:59 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Agree P, if it meanders into warmer days then it will have a chance of kicking some grass, otherwise much more modest.

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#1463469 - 09/05/2018 20:03 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I have notice lots of tree leaves are late as only 3 weeks to winter,so this cold will shock trees and drop all leaves.

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#1463485 - 09/05/2018 23:49 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for today from here in Belgrave. smile

Dipped to 7.9C this morning. Not sure what the top temperature was, but the highest reading I saw on my weather station this afternoon was 17.7C. A coolish, breezy and mostly cloudy day with lengthy afternoon sunny breaks.

It stayed kinda mild throughout the evening, with the temperature hovering around a rather constant 15C right up until the passage of the cold front at approximately 10:30pm. crazy

Quite a healthy rainband accompanying this frontal system; the rain has been falling quite heavily at times since it started over an hour ago! Collected 2.1mm so far and looks like more to come for at least another couple of hours this evening. A nice start to the event. smile

Currently around 11C atm.

Up until about 24-48 hours ago, my faith in the weather models was at an all-time low. I am the sort of person who can only tolerate up to 7 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, especially during the summer bushfire season when extended hot, dry spells are not welcome. The past 3 months were beyond a joke! My family and I found the bushfire risk very stressful in February and March. mad frown

The 13.7mm of rain we collected for the first 9 days of this month was a welcome treat, all the more as it allowed me to really appreciate the sunshine properly! smile

And this unfolding winter storm event is going to be a bonus for sure!! Bring it on! =D

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#1463491 - 10/05/2018 08:31 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2092
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
A scintillating 2mm in town, 3mm at E/Sale. Breezy cool day, some rattling wind came thru' town round 0215hrs gusting to 54kph @ E/Sale

Blue sky at the mo' - ABC/BOM this morn talked 150mm at Mount Wellington, to our north.

Major catchment for Macalister/Avon/Mitchell Rivers, if the 150 comes off, mostly over (roughly) Friday night , flooding possibilities are quite likely.

ACCESS this morning doesn't back that rainfall scenario for Mt Well.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Very well respected local SES Controller (& a farmer) likes to say "We live with low rainfall round here, interrupted with the occasional flood" grin

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#1463493 - 10/05/2018 09:06 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
1.0mm to 0900.

Looking at the models, it is going to be very local where the best falls are. Much of the State misses out and even in SE Vic could be restricted to mountains with much less on coast.

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#1463495 - 10/05/2018 10:48 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 735
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Looks like all the models except Access-G think Melbourne and Central areas still cop a decent soak today and tomorrow (Tomorrow being the best day).

All looks to dissipate into the force field at the moment coming from the SW. Hopefully it fills in smile

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#1463501 - 10/05/2018 11:47 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had 10mm from first front and now wait see how cold cells move from SW as now is 9.5c at 11.30am

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#1463512 - 10/05/2018 13:56 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Need up grade W/NW Radar loop hole

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#1463524 - 10/05/2018 16:07 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 735
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Looks like the heavier stuff is finally on its way from the South now. Expecting a wet, cold night.

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#1463528 - 10/05/2018 16:29 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Jilly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 186
Loc: Warrnambool
Hi all,last post was before the traumatic St Patricks Day fires. So today was our first really significant rain since then. 27ml today with bursts of hail, temps down to 7 across the region. Cobrico peat fires were declared safe this week. So this weather system will ultimately help towards saturation. Bit late for an autumn break however applications of nitrogen on pasture will kick start growth. Farming family down on the Otways had falls of over 50mls last night. Cloud structures have been amazing this afternoon, tops starting to flatten out. Exciting little system!

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#1463537 - 10/05/2018 17:55 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2642
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Cold pool always useless in Northern County drys out after the divided ranges to Bendigo, unless the deep low spiral in land VIC would make difference.

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#1463550 - 10/05/2018 18:41 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7454
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Happy with a 3.25mm start for this cold/wet outbreak from early morning/morning showers from the prefrontal band. Not windy here atm, but down to only 13c, baro down to 1006 hPa.

By the latest MSLP chart, the low looks set to bomb (if that is what eventuates) not far off Tassies NE tip in Bass Straight?





Edited by Petros (10/05/2018 18:42)

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#1463562 - 10/05/2018 19:17 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Prozerpyne23 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/09/2010
Posts: 245
Loc: Proserpine
Can anyone tell me always been curious, why does the temperature in Melbourne never get cold enough for snow? Like the CBD area? Its about 7c now so cant it keep dropping over night and then if rain moves through it will change to snow or is the cloud cover keeping it warmer and and preventing it dropping lower... if the cloud cleared for a period and allowed the temperature to drop could it snow? Sometimes Ive seen the temperatures rise as the rain has approached.
_________________________
The storm starts, when the drops start dropping
When the drops stop dropping then the storm starts stopping. - Dr. Seuss

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