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#1463164 - 05/05/2018 18:12 Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ?
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
To kick off the period beginning 9/5 with the following forecast for Sale -


"Wed 9 May Forecast ShowersMin5 °CMax21 °CPrecisLate shower or two.Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 60%
Thu 10 May Forecast ShowersMin7 °CMax14 °CPrecisShower or two.Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 70%
Fri 11 May Forecast RainMin6 °CMax16 °CPrecisRain.Possible rainfall: 6 to 25 mmChance of any rain: 80% "


ACCESS for next Thur. (10/5) has a 1005hPa low positioned East of Southern NSW deepening to 984hPa by 2200 Fri 11/5.

A very low 532 (cold air) re MSLP / 1000-500 HpA THICKNESS on ACCESS is certainly one not seen very often, have to think SNOW, SNOW & more SNOW.

Couldn't be could it that Winter is here, 22C here at 0100 a couple of nights back......... grin

(And it could all fall in a heap by them, but don't think it will! )



Edited by samboz (05/05/2018 18:14)
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1463168 - 05/05/2018 18:45 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
WZ forecast 9th to 11th is -

Wed 1-5mm Thur 20-40mm Fri 40-80mm eek

The Fri. dump if it comes off will have a very good chance of causing
flooding in this corner of Vic - interesting time coming up next week !!
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1463184 - 05/05/2018 20:41 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2538
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for new thread and this very strange cold uppers giving big jump to bring winter to East VIC and NSW looking into damaging winds and snow on high mountains.

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#1463187 - 05/05/2018 21:51 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7467
Loc: Central Adelaide Hills
I am quite interested to see whether VIC gets swiped in coming days by a sharp upper-trough plume smile .
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#1463192 - 05/05/2018 22:16 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS is keen at latest run

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#1463213 - 06/05/2018 10:44 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1267
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread samboz 👍

Looks really good this one for plenty of rain
And good snowfalls for a period possibly
Down to around 800-1000m mark!

Hopefully out east gets a really good drink
Out of this setup.(and the rest of vic as well)

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#1463218 - 06/05/2018 12:27 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
ECL? - yes (a cut-off low).

So happy to have something decent to look out for, hope it comes off!

The system is mainly coastal/Gippsland for Vic, and if the cut-off does form as currently progged by GFS, leaves us in Central Gippsland wishing that Tassie wasn't "in the way"!


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#1463241 - 06/05/2018 18:26 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS run:


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#1463267 - 06/05/2018 20:41 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2538
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very interesting great long gusty Southerly wind cold snap cover From TAS,VIC to Half of NSW.

Wednesday May 9th

Thursday May 10th

Friday May 11th

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#1463289 - 07/05/2018 11:18 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
EC was first on to this event but is now first to back off. Other models (ACCESS G dumps huge amounts on central/east Gippsland) have widely varying totals and widely dispersed centres for max rainfall.

BoM forecasters seem to be taking a "middle road"(?)

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#1463295 - 07/05/2018 12:10 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Agree totally TB based on a cruise thru' the models/sites earlier this morning, I'm hoping that such a strong Low hanging around for so long dumps on the high spectrum of the forecasts, it wouldn't be the first time that a strong ECL has caught everyone by surprise.

East Gippy rainfall looked good, mainly centered around ORBOST from memory.
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1463298 - 07/05/2018 12:40 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Models all over the shop. - Pretty normal this far out.

GFS keen on having a crack more at Central districts now on Friday and even Western districts on Saturday. It's backed right off on Gippsland.

EC is backed off across the board as mentioned above by TB. Access G is still wanting to drop a rain bomb over East Gippy on Friday.

All I know is it should be interesting for someone, somewhere, either way poke

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#1463299 - 07/05/2018 12:51 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 786
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Samboz and Balmz ... looks like we're all in agreement that we don't know !!!

Just listened to the BoM forecaster on ABC Country Hour. He described Fri- Sun period as "interesting" and basically said what we've said here.

Would prefer rain not to be too heavily too quickly - flash flooding, eroding of paddocks with little grass - but we'll get what we'll get.

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#1463306 - 07/05/2018 14:06 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2538
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bom charts, Windy charts and Weatherzone still hard pin
Little cold pool spin West of Bendigo on Friday..


Edited by chasers addict (07/05/2018 14:08)

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#1463331 - 07/05/2018 18:15 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Interesting story on this unfolding event by Ben Domensio in WZ Weather News currently.

The model waltz moves slightly in favour for Gippsland in GFS's latest run (hanging around for a couple of days and centred a bit closer to Mallacoota):



.....leaves open the chance that it "could" bomb closer to Merimbula - which would be VERY interesting for us in Gippsland!

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#1463332 - 07/05/2018 18:18 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Bom charts, Windy charts and Weatherzone still hard pin
Little cold pool spin West of Bendigo on Friday..


Hopefully your the first to pick a potential Meso CA!

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#1463351 - 07/05/2018 20:49 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2538
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Well Petros, i gave up looking GFS charts, as updated to down grade weaker and I wait until Wednesday Chart see any difference..


Edited by chasers addict (07/05/2018 20:50)

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#1463376 - 08/05/2018 09:51 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 713
Loc: Knox, Melbourne, VIC
Latest Model Summary:

Access has backed right off on last nights run for Western and Central districts and still confines the rain bomb to far East VIC.

EC: Very keen still for solid totals (Anywhere from 30mm-100mm+) for Central / Eastern districts for Friday and Saturday.

GFS: Big for Central and West Gippsland areas across Friday and Saturday with a good 30-80mm or so.

Canadians: The Canucks are keen for Central districts on Friday with everything contracting to far East Gippsland quickly on Saturday.

At this stage, Access seems to be the outlier. I'm not sure which model has historically handled these type of cut off low events the best. Starting to get some agreement though it seems that this will be decent for at least Central areas spilling into West and East Gippy.

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#1463387 - 08/05/2018 12:57 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2021
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
The 532 cold air mass still on ACCESS, Winter is getting locked in, it's going to be chilly !!

15C max's for Thur & Fri. (Sale) & 3C and 4C mins Fri & Sat.

I'm prepared for anything in our area, could be 25mm or 100mm - the forecasters have historically had difficulty pinning down ECL's (IME) and we can get some very wet weather that wasn't forecast.

At this stage ANY rain will be gratefully rec'd.
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1463403 - 08/05/2018 18:04 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7055
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Definitely agree Samboz.

Latest guess from GFS shows low bombing in a location and trajectory favorable for Gipps, good to see that there is something in it for wider regions of Vic than previous runs! smile



Fingers crossed, but this could end up being a "careful what you wish for" event?

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