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#1463164 - 05/05/2018 18:12 Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ?
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
To kick off the period beginning 9/5 with the following forecast for Sale -


"Wed 9 May Forecast ShowersMin5 °CMax21 °CPrecisLate shower or two.Possible rainfall: 0 to 2 mmChance of any rain: 60%
Thu 10 May Forecast ShowersMin7 °CMax14 °CPrecisShower or two.Possible rainfall: 2 to 10 mmChance of any rain: 70%
Fri 11 May Forecast RainMin6 °CMax16 °CPrecisRain.Possible rainfall: 6 to 25 mmChance of any rain: 80% "


ACCESS for next Thur. (10/5) has a 1005hPa low positioned East of Southern NSW deepening to 984hPa by 2200 Fri 11/5.

A very low 532 (cold air) re MSLP / 1000-500 HpA THICKNESS on ACCESS is certainly one not seen very often, have to think SNOW, SNOW & more SNOW.

Couldn't be could it that Winter is here, 22C here at 0100 a couple of nights back......... grin

(And it could all fall in a heap by them, but don't think it will! )



Edited by samboz (05/05/2018 18:14)

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#1463168 - 05/05/2018 18:45 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
WZ forecast 9th to 11th is -

Wed 1-5mm Thur 20-40mm Fri 40-80mm eek

The Fri. dump if it comes off will have a very good chance of causing
flooding in this corner of Vic - interesting time coming up next week !!

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#1463184 - 05/05/2018 20:41 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks for new thread and this very strange cold uppers giving big jump to bring winter to East VIC and NSW looking into damaging winds and snow on high mountains.

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#1463187 - 05/05/2018 21:51 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Seira Offline
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Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7549
Loc: Adelaide Hills
I am quite interested to see whether VIC gets swiped in coming days by a sharp upper-trough plume smile .
_________________________
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#1463192 - 05/05/2018 22:16 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
GFS is keen at latest run

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#1463213 - 06/05/2018 10:44 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread samboz 👍

Looks really good this one for plenty of rain
And good snowfalls for a period possibly
Down to around 800-1000m mark!

Hopefully out east gets a really good drink
Out of this setup.(and the rest of vic as well)

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#1463218 - 06/05/2018 12:27 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
ECL? - yes (a cut-off low).

So happy to have something decent to look out for, hope it comes off!

The system is mainly coastal/Gippsland for Vic, and if the cut-off does form as currently progged by GFS, leaves us in Central Gippsland wishing that Tassie wasn't "in the way"!


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#1463241 - 06/05/2018 18:26 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS run:


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#1463267 - 06/05/2018 20:41 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Very interesting great long gusty Southerly wind cold snap cover From TAS,VIC to Half of NSW.

Wednesday May 9th

Thursday May 10th

Friday May 11th

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#1463289 - 07/05/2018 11:18 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
EC was first on to this event but is now first to back off. Other models (ACCESS G dumps huge amounts on central/east Gippsland) have widely varying totals and widely dispersed centres for max rainfall.

BoM forecasters seem to be taking a "middle road"(?)

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#1463295 - 07/05/2018 12:10 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Agree totally TB based on a cruise thru' the models/sites earlier this morning, I'm hoping that such a strong Low hanging around for so long dumps on the high spectrum of the forecasts, it wouldn't be the first time that a strong ECL has caught everyone by surprise.

East Gippy rainfall looked good, mainly centered around ORBOST from memory.

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#1463298 - 07/05/2018 12:40 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Models all over the shop. - Pretty normal this far out.

GFS keen on having a crack more at Central districts now on Friday and even Western districts on Saturday. It's backed right off on Gippsland.

EC is backed off across the board as mentioned above by TB. Access G is still wanting to drop a rain bomb over East Gippy on Friday.

All I know is it should be interesting for someone, somewhere, either way poke

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#1463299 - 07/05/2018 12:51 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Samboz and Balmz ... looks like we're all in agreement that we don't know !!!

Just listened to the BoM forecaster on ABC Country Hour. He described Fri- Sun period as "interesting" and basically said what we've said here.

Would prefer rain not to be too heavily too quickly - flash flooding, eroding of paddocks with little grass - but we'll get what we'll get.

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#1463306 - 07/05/2018 14:06 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Bom charts, Windy charts and Weatherzone still hard pin
Little cold pool spin West of Bendigo on Friday..


Edited by chasers addict (07/05/2018 14:08)

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#1463331 - 07/05/2018 18:15 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Interesting story on this unfolding event by Ben Domensio in WZ Weather News currently.

The model waltz moves slightly in favour for Gippsland in GFS's latest run (hanging around for a couple of days and centred a bit closer to Mallacoota):



.....leaves open the chance that it "could" bomb closer to Merimbula - which would be VERY interesting for us in Gippsland!

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#1463332 - 07/05/2018 18:18 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: chasers addict]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Bom charts, Windy charts and Weatherzone still hard pin
Little cold pool spin West of Bendigo on Friday..


Hopefully your the first to pick a potential Meso CA!

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#1463351 - 07/05/2018 20:49 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Well Petros, i gave up looking GFS charts, as updated to down grade weaker and I wait until Wednesday Chart see any difference..


Edited by chasers addict (07/05/2018 20:50)

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#1463376 - 08/05/2018 09:51 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Latest Model Summary:

Access has backed right off on last nights run for Western and Central districts and still confines the rain bomb to far East VIC.

EC: Very keen still for solid totals (Anywhere from 30mm-100mm+) for Central / Eastern districts for Friday and Saturday.

GFS: Big for Central and West Gippsland areas across Friday and Saturday with a good 30-80mm or so.

Canadians: The Canucks are keen for Central districts on Friday with everything contracting to far East Gippsland quickly on Saturday.

At this stage, Access seems to be the outlier. I'm not sure which model has historically handled these type of cut off low events the best. Starting to get some agreement though it seems that this will be decent for at least Central areas spilling into West and East Gippy.

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#1463387 - 08/05/2018 12:57 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
The 532 cold air mass still on ACCESS, Winter is getting locked in, it's going to be chilly !!

15C max's for Thur & Fri. (Sale) & 3C and 4C mins Fri & Sat.

I'm prepared for anything in our area, could be 25mm or 100mm - the forecasters have historically had difficulty pinning down ECL's (IME) and we can get some very wet weather that wasn't forecast.

At this stage ANY rain will be gratefully rec'd.

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#1463403 - 08/05/2018 18:04 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Definitely agree Samboz.

Latest guess from GFS shows low bombing in a location and trajectory favorable for Gipps, good to see that there is something in it for wider regions of Vic than previous runs! smile



Fingers crossed, but this could end up being a "careful what you wish for" event?

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#1463409 - 08/05/2018 19:31 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
GFS keener for Sale/Maffra than is ACCESS, BOM forecasts still with very large variables eg -Sale, on Sat 20 to 100mm.

Orbost has consistently featured as the wet area, up to 200mm for the event on BOM, a lot of catchments N of there may have high mm/hr rainfall on the given figures and lots of runoff.

Could see dry Snowy River flats under water by the end of ECL event.......not quite as likely for Mitchell River (Lindenow/Bairnsdale), time will tell !

This is a ripper of an ECL/RAIN/SNOW event.

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#1463422 - 09/05/2018 07:17 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Local BOM (Andy KEMP) on local ABC this morning is forecasting 100 to 150mm for East Gippy out of this ECL.

Missed South/West Gippy forecast unfortunately.

Wondering if we can call this an Autumn Break this late, also wondering just how much growth will result.

Ground temps would still be higher than normal, rests a bit on how the climate meanders from now on, TB thoughts your patch ?

Round Sale, I think it'll green up quickly and take some pressure off but not enough to cease hand feeding. Those on the land have a long wait and months of feeding out ahead before Spring.

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#1463440 - 09/05/2018 11:30 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Good news the freezing altitude looks good by Thursday 12pm.
Snow is likely to most of Divided ranges from West Victoria to NSW.

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#1463446 - 09/05/2018 15:45 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
The progged falls still widely differ. As to any growth, Samboz: I'm certainly no expert but I think there's good prospects of some growth.

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#1463451 - 09/05/2018 16:17 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
BlueyZarsoff Offline
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Registered: 14/07/2015
Posts: 118
Loc: Fountain Lakes (Sth East Melb)
As much as i hate the COLD , i will be wishing the best for you Samboz poke

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#1463461 - 09/05/2018 18:07 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Rain arriving in SW Vic coastal regions now, .....so we sit back and watch what evolves smile - or not frown

Most areas in Vic's southern half should get useful rain, and as usual, some regions will get "lucky".

One things now for sure, the synoptic's as they are now, are "running to plan" as prognosed by most models over recent days:




[edit] - getting pretty unsettled outside here now after a calm sunny day, wind chimes dancing away...


Edited by Petros (09/05/2018 18:10)

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#1463462 - 09/05/2018 18:15 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz
Local BOM (Andy KEMP) on local ABC this morning is forecasting 100 to 150mm for East Gippy out of this ECL.

Missed South/West Gippy forecast unfortunately.

Wondering if we can call this an Autumn Break this late, also wondering just how much growth will result.

Ground temps would still be higher than normal, rests a bit on how the climate meanders from now on, TB thoughts your patch ?

Round Sale, I think it'll green up quickly and take some pressure off but not enough to cease hand feeding. Those on the land have a long wait and months of feeding out ahead before Spring.


Soil temp down in low teens at Royal Maffra Samboz. For my 2 bob's, grass production post this (I'd call it the Autumn break - albiet late) will depend if, and how long it takes to get back to the odd 20C day again.

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#1463468 - 09/05/2018 19:59 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Agree P, if it meanders into warmer days then it will have a chance of kicking some grass, otherwise much more modest.

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#1463469 - 09/05/2018 20:03 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
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Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
I have notice lots of tree leaves are late as only 3 weeks to winter,so this cold will shock trees and drop all leaves.

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#1463485 - 09/05/2018 23:49 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
aussiestormfreak Offline
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Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
My post for today from here in Belgrave. smile

Dipped to 7.9°C this morning. Not sure what the top temperature was, but the highest reading I saw on my weather station this afternoon was 17.7°C. A coolish, breezy and mostly cloudy day with lengthy afternoon sunny breaks.

It stayed kinda mild throughout the evening, with the temperature hovering around a rather constant 15°C right up until the passage of the cold front at approximately 10:30pm. crazy

Quite a healthy rainband accompanying this frontal system; the rain has been falling quite heavily at times since it started over an hour ago! Collected 2.1mm so far and looks like more to come for at least another couple of hours this evening. A nice start to the event. smile

Currently around 11°C atm.

Up until about 24-48 hours ago, my faith in the weather models was at an all-time low. I am the sort of person who can only tolerate up to 7 consecutive days without measurable rainfall, especially during the summer bushfire season when extended hot, dry spells are not welcome. The past 3 months were beyond a joke! My family and I found the bushfire risk very stressful in February and March. mad frown

The 13.7mm of rain we collected for the first 9 days of this month was a welcome treat, all the more as it allowed me to really appreciate the sunshine properly! smile

And this unfolding winter storm event is going to be a bonus for sure!! Bring it on! =D

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#1463491 - 10/05/2018 08:31 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
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Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
A scintillating 2mm in town, 3mm at E/Sale. Breezy cool day, some rattling wind came thru' town round 0215hrs gusting to 54kph @ E/Sale

Blue sky at the mo' - ABC/BOM this morn talked 150mm at Mount Wellington, to our north.

Major catchment for Macalister/Avon/Mitchell Rivers, if the 150 comes off, mostly over (roughly) Friday night , flooding possibilities are quite likely.

ACCESS this morning doesn't back that rainfall scenario for Mt Well.

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

Very well respected local SES Controller (& a farmer) likes to say "We live with low rainfall round here, interrupted with the occasional flood" grin

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#1463493 - 10/05/2018 09:06 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
1.0mm to 0900.

Looking at the models, it is going to be very local where the best falls are. Much of the State misses out and even in SE Vic could be restricted to mountains with much less on coast.

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#1463495 - 10/05/2018 10:48 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Looks like all the models except Access-G think Melbourne and Central areas still cop a decent soak today and tomorrow (Tomorrow being the best day).

All looks to dissipate into the force field at the moment coming from the SW. Hopefully it fills in smile

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#1463501 - 10/05/2018 11:47 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Had 10mm from first front and now wait see how cold cells move from SW as now is 9.5c at 11.30am

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#1463512 - 10/05/2018 13:56 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Need up grade W/NW Radar loop hole

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#1463524 - 10/05/2018 16:07 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
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Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Looks like the heavier stuff is finally on its way from the South now. Expecting a wet, cold night.

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#1463528 - 10/05/2018 16:29 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Jilly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 24/05/2007
Posts: 185
Loc: Warrnambool
Hi all,last post was before the traumatic St Patricks Day fires. So today was our first really significant rain since then. 27ml today with bursts of hail, temps down to 7 across the region. Cobrico peat fires were declared safe this week. So this weather system will ultimately help towards saturation. Bit late for an autumn break however applications of nitrogen on pasture will kick start growth. Farming family down on the Otways had falls of over 50mls last night. Cloud structures have been amazing this afternoon, tops starting to flatten out. Exciting little system!

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#1463537 - 10/05/2018 17:55 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Cold pool always useless in Northern County drys out after the divided ranges to Bendigo, unless the deep low spiral in land VIC would make difference.

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#1463550 - 10/05/2018 18:41 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Happy with a 3.25mm start for this cold/wet outbreak from early morning/morning showers from the prefrontal band. Not windy here atm, but down to only 13c, baro down to 1006 hPa.

By the latest MSLP chart, the low looks set to bomb (if that is what eventuates) not far off Tassies NE tip in Bass Straight?





Edited by Petros (10/05/2018 18:42)

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#1463562 - 10/05/2018 19:17 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Prozerpyne23 Offline
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Registered: 20/09/2010
Posts: 245
Loc: Proserpine
Can anyone tell me always been curious, why does the temperature in Melbourne never get cold enough for snow? Like the CBD area? It’s about 7c now so can’t it keep dropping over night and then if rain moves through it will change to snow or is the cloud cover keeping it warmer and and preventing it dropping lower... if the cloud cleared for a period and allowed the temperature to drop could it snow? Sometimes I’ve seen the temperatures rise as the rain has approached.
_________________________
“The storm starts, when the drops start dropping
When the drops stop dropping then the storm starts stopping.” - Dr. Seuss

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#1463566 - 10/05/2018 19:27 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: Prozerpyne23]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Prozerpyne23
Can anyone tell me always been curious, why does the temperature in Melbourne never get cold enough for snow? Like the CBD area? It’s about 7c now so can’t it keep dropping over night and then if rain moves through it will change to snow or is the cloud cover keeping it warmer and and preventing it dropping lower... if the cloud cleared for a period and allowed the temperature to drop could it snow? Sometimes I’ve seen the temperatures rise as the rain has approached.


Blame the southern ocean.
If Canada was below Australia, it would snow in Melbourne regularly during winter.

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#1463568 - 10/05/2018 19:38 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
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Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Max of 10c up here today with a rude bitter
Wind blowing!! Received 10mm overnight
With the front but nothing since.

Currently 5c and we will see how things ramp
Up rain and wind wise overnight tonight and
Tommoz?

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#1463569 - 10/05/2018 19:40 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: Homer]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Originally Posted By: Homer
Blame the southern ocean.
If Canada was below Australia, it would snow in Melbourne regularly during winter.


The water keeps the air warmer by retaining more heat right? Similar cause as to why the West coast of the US/Canada receives little to no snow fall at sea level most winters. Southern UK same issue I think... could be wrong.

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#1463573 - 10/05/2018 19:57 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
The 532 air mass is really starting to impact now, ie 6C @ Moornapa and 8C at E/Sale.

Certainly fresh yr patch Dooga.....better get that fire stoked up !

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#1463575 - 10/05/2018 20:01 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: balmz]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: balmz
Originally Posted By: Homer
Blame the southern ocean.
If Canada was below Australia, it would snow in Melbourne regularly during winter.


The water keeps the air warmer by retaining more heat right? Similar cause as to why the West coast of the US/Canada receives little to no snow fall at sea level most winters. Southern UK same issue I think... could be wrong.


Correct.

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#1463578 - 10/05/2018 20:27 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
If only Antarctica was a little closer smile

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#1463579 - 10/05/2018 20:27 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
9.0mm till lunch today, almost all of that overnight. Maybe 0.5mm in coldies today, will check tomorrow if possible.

Maximum was at midnight of 8.1c, hasn't been near that since. Currently 1.6c with a blob of precip heading this way.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1463580 - 10/05/2018 20:30 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Some nice heavy rain and Thunder here. Interesting radar loop over Melbourne, almost seems to split as it hits the coast off around the bay and go NW and NE!

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#1463582 - 10/05/2018 20:36 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Inland Victoria are more colder at night from High pressure frost (no clouds) and polar Cold upper pool when stable over night.

The Higher ground fall snow depends freezing altitude level.

All Coast towns are warmer because the Ocean is warmer breeze..

SE Australia need more SW to S jet-stream bring wintry.

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#1463669 - 11/05/2018 12:03 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
First rain starting now - light, from the SW. Bitterly cold.

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#1463671 - 11/05/2018 12:32 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
balmz Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/11/2012
Posts: 716
Loc: Ferntree Gully, Melbourne, VIC
Absolutely chucking it down in the CBD with that bitterly cold wind. Umbrellas no match.

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#1463675 - 11/05/2018 14:11 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
How's this - WOW !!! - Mt Wellington 1260m ASL in Tassie, 236mm gusting to 132kph to 0900hrs this morning (11/5).

Had round 10mm in Sale, cool outside, modest breeze, barely worth mentioning compared to above.

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#1463676 - 11/05/2018 14:30 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
As I read your post Samboz I thought you were referring to Mt. Wellington north of you LOL.

Pretty amazing figures.

Only (maybe cos I haven't checked) a mm or two here yet.

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#1463687 - 11/05/2018 17:01 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
I'm getting a horrible feeling that what Sale hasn't rec'd by middnight will be to bad, may be all over after then. Up to 0.4mm Sat, what a flop of an ECL at this stage.

BOM/re SALE tomorrow Sat 12/5 -

"Sat 12 May Forecast Cloudy Min10 °CMax16 °C Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm Chance of any rain: 30%

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#1463689 - 11/05/2018 17:10 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yeas, Samboz we (but especially to the west of me) very dependent on what falls tonight. Raining steadily but not heavily - about 5mm so far.


Edited by ThunderBob (11/05/2018 17:10)
Edit Reason: typo

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#1463694 - 11/05/2018 19:00 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: samboz
I'm getting a horrible feeling that what Sale hasn't rec'd by middnight will be to bad, may be all over after then. Up to 0.4mm Sat, what a flop of an ECL at this stage.

BOM/re SALE tomorrow Sat 12/5 -

"Sat 12 May Forecast Cloudy Min10 °CMax16 °C Cloudy.
Possible rainfall: 0 to 0.4 mm Chance of any rain: 30%


GFS and EC predicted the late afternoon lull (going by Windy), a "Bass Straight Blob" looks to be assembling, with intent on a visit to Sale from the SE very soon by my obs??:




Nice 12mm rain to add to the 3.25mm I tipped out last evening. Been relatively calm here too Samboz, ....and cold (13c at 5pm). I'll bet a slab that Sale will pick up at least 12mm more tonight.

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#1463695 - 11/05/2018 19:05 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Been for months last time Gusty windy South/SE winds, fast overcast clouds bring Thurs 10mm and Today 8mm Total to 18mm

Amateur David Taylor has said Australia breaking record icy winter weather events publicize March 5th 2018..

So i think David Taylor is plausible because,

Tasmania never seen horrible floods in Street alot of damage and heavy ocean waves.

Victoria wide spread snow on mountains and good rains.
Freezing to SA,VIC, half NSW.

Sydney turn wait see what happens to east Coast when low pressure comes into ocean..

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#1463697 - 11/05/2018 19:36 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Starting to sound genuine about raining now. That "blob" coming to visit Petros.


Edited by ThunderBob (11/05/2018 19:37)

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#1463703 - 11/05/2018 21:02 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
20mm up here over the last two days.
Thought we would get a lot more but handy
Rain none the less. Suspected we where being
Somewhat sheltered by tassie with that southerly
Flow today

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#1463708 - 11/05/2018 21:31 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 102
Loc: Shepparton
about 13 mm here which is good
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1463709 - 11/05/2018 21:32 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
gleno01 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 28/03/2010
Posts: 102
Loc: Shepparton
for the event
_________________________
check out my you tube channel gleno2008

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#1463719 - 12/05/2018 07:18 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Apols if this rambles a bit:-

Mild morning, calm in town, 16mm for the entire event and bgr all forecast today -->.

3mm recorded at E/Sale after midnight - its gone East where if one listened to the media, armageddon was about to descend last night. Media still reporting forecast 100-150mm in "Gippsland", I'd like to back the other horse on that one grin

Rain Obs of 10mm@Orbost, 9mm@Mallacoota, 52mm@Omeo was a good fall, Combienbar 33.4mm also handy, but won't bring any smiles to Orbost or CannR farmers.

Hoping East Gippsland receives some worthwhile falls at some stage at a manageable rate/hr, I can't remember seeing it so dry around Orbost (Snowy River flats) and Cann River, (Orbost driest year in 90+yrs)

The ECL looks to have wandered off E on radar and satellite, ACCESS has rainfall clearing slowly in E.Gipp. as the ECL moves N. See what happens !!

OUR Mt. Wellington has had modest falls from what I can see, most recent rainfalls obs. not posted yet. Mt Buller didn't get a lot apparently so as an indicator, MtW is in the same boat.

No flooding in the Avon, that's good.

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#1463725 - 12/05/2018 09:14 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Nice summary for this area Samboz.Thanks.

26mm to 0900 including the "4 or so" earlier reported.Is actually a very nice fall. Doesn't really look like we've had much rain which indicates how dry it has been and how much has been directly soaked up. Strong consistent wind o/night - now only light breeze, full cloud.

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#1463729 - 12/05/2018 09:39 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1839
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Nice report Samboz .
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

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#1463731 - 12/05/2018 10:04 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
After the report from Wednesday nights arrival of the cool air we have had 47.0mm most of which fell yesterday. Been very windy since yesterday, and still is. Yesterday max was 9.2c, already up to 9.6c with some sun out. Hoping for some showers this arvo but if not mizzle should redevelop up here overnight I think.

56.0mm for this event and now up to 75.9mm for May so far.
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1463733 - 12/05/2018 11:06 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: Ruckle]
Lindsay Knowles Offline
Moderator

Registered: 18/01/2003
Posts: 3965
Loc: Bayles / Toorloo Arm
Nice total there Ruckle.28mm here at home in Bayles which is ok but we were hoping for a good fall up at our property just out of Lakes but its looking like that area got only about 20-25mm. The computer models were wrong once again. I said to a friend who lives at Perry Bridge that we would be lucky to get 50mm when up to 130mm was first mentioned in the forecast for East Gippy. Sadly we didn't even get that. I wonder how accurately the weather was forecast before they started relying on computers but then again they only mentioned about 3 days worth of weather back then. Once again feeling ripped off and kinda disappointed with a system that was talked up once again and failed to deliver the big falls. Hopefully some follow up rain will come in the next couple of weeks to help get / keep some moisture in the ground.

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#1463750 - 12/05/2018 19:08 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Thanks smile

To update some rainfall for W&S GIPPS & E.GIPPS, some did OK, nice to see -

MT WELLINGTON 64MM
REEVES KNOB 94MM
DARGO 50MM
WONNANGATTA RIVER @ WATERFORD (barely 10km South of Dargo) 67MM
DINNER PLAIN 68MM
OMEO 56MM

Some that really needed rain -

ORBOST 10.8MM (After the forecasts and media hype, they'd be feeling gutted ! )
COMBIENBAR AWS * 43M & CABBAGE TREE 27MM Nearest I can find close to CANN RIVER

Appears that coastal areas rec'd less rain than the higher elevations.


Edited by samboz (12/05/2018 19:09)

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#1463756 - 13/05/2018 08:31 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1303
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for those obs samboz👍

We finished with a handy 21mm for this event.
Thought we may have received a little more
But it was very welcome fall.
It's taken away any warmth that was left and
That winter chilled air has moved in up here!

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#1463759 - 13/05/2018 09:10 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6338
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
8.6mm since 10am yesterday, frequent light showers yesterday pm and a mizzle fest last night. So 64.6mm for the event now. Also highest wind gust so far was this morning so breeze still strong
_________________________
Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1463761 - 13/05/2018 10:41 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
8.0mm to 0900, making 34mm for event. Occasional very misty shower.

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#1463783 - 13/05/2018 17:58 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The odd misty shower here today took us to 18.5mm for the event. After 5mm total for last month, I found myself getting excited when I could spot puddles on the way home from work yesterday smile

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#1463803 - 14/05/2018 08:03 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Heard on local ABC radio this morning, CANN RIVER local rang/texted a rain report of 101 MM

That's just so good for that area grin grin

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#1463833 - 14/05/2018 17:25 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Alexia Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/12/2002
Posts: 595
Loc: Corryong
18.5mm rain for us this event. Slight frost this am only the second one this year so far a few more forecast next few days.

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#1463839 - 14/05/2018 18:27 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Found 0.25mm unexpectedly in the gauge today, must have been a last drizzle patch later last evening.

Samboz - you let me off way to easy for that slab reference I made for Friday nights rain for Sale! Definitely a gentleman!

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#1463843 - 14/05/2018 21:01 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
You haven't bought it yet ?

Gentleman my a**e, gentlemen don't drink VB, cans pls !!

Chilled.





laugh

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#1464004 - 17/05/2018 18:06 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
LOL



laugh

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#1464007 - 17/05/2018 18:37 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Sorry Samboz, taking early retirement tomorrow (Hazelwood worker transition scheme), just cant afford it on my pension rate. Mind you, if you were to slip a slab over to Maffra as a retirement gift - (chilled, Great Northern cans), .....I wouldnt be above accepting such a generous gesture.

Cool cloudy 17C here today, baro dropping to 1023 hPa - hopefully a bit of coastal grazing rain on the roof sometime tonight?

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#1464014 - 17/05/2018 21:11 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Keep active, enjoy it.

(Get a bike, some cycling will tune you up !!)

Best of luck and good wishes for the retirement Petros. grin

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#1464033 - 18/05/2018 11:11 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2586
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Petros, well said i am upgrading my bike...right time the surface is dry still..

Shocking been to Melbourne is country is still very dry with trick winter grass covering it...

Hate middle level clouds made overcast 2nd day row..

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#1464076 - 19/05/2018 20:17 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7249
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Cool overcast day here with moderate sw'ly at times.

Getting pressure from mates about taking up bike riding too. But also aware
about what urangutans posteriors look like!

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#1464078 - 19/05/2018 20:59 Re: Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2060
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
OMG, saw us in Maffra y'day morning blush

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