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#1463133 - 05/05/2018 06:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Well gfs just got a bit more interesting.

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#1463134 - 05/05/2018 06:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Ooh and access

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#1463135 - 05/05/2018 06:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6784
EC is also atill guns blazing for a major cold outbreak with snow on the CT's. GFS is a little weaker this run than the last but still decent. I think an event is locked in now but still hard to say whether it will be ECL or an inland low or both.


Edited by Wave Rider (05/05/2018 06:39)
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#1463136 - 05/05/2018 07:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
yes is it an ECL or a cut off low.

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#1463144 - 05/05/2018 08:54 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2032
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Looks like a cut off to me.

Could be a snow chase next weekend! That would be extraordinary given recent weather.


Edited by Kino (05/05/2018 08:56)

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#1463146 - 05/05/2018 09:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4756
Well the wind never ever really eventuated last night, was breezy at times. 9.7c was my overnight low.

Looks like another nice day coming up and should be fine evening for the final tonight!!

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#1463147 - 05/05/2018 09:45 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
12z GFS is a bit nicer than 18z. It holds the cold pool back a bit more and doesnt transition as quick.

I think if the cold pool can hang back a bit over the inland and traverse across the north of the state it will encourage much wider spread rainfall and snow potential + the enhance the ECL strength further north. If the cold pool just bombs with the surface low all in one go off the south coast, it could just smash Gippsland and surrounds and not much for anyone else.
This setup is quite a bit different than the model runs from a couple of days ago, which looked much more favourable for rain over the northern inland and central east.
Its very dynamic, so plenty of settling to come. But the cold pool cutting off and hanging around over the inland will be the key between garden (or very local) variety event or epic (widespread and record potential) event IMO.

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#1463152 - 05/05/2018 12:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4100
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's already 20-22 across Sydney. I think most Sydney sites will max at 23-24 today, maybe 24-25 for the next few days before the cool change arrives late Thursday.

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#1463155 - 05/05/2018 15:59 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
The dissolving to naught for the the next event has begun....
groundhog weather.

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#1463156 - 05/05/2018 16:16 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Yeah kino defo a cut off low now. At least it might finally feel like winter.

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#1463157 - 05/05/2018 16:46 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 311
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Feel like we shouldn't rule it out in terms of it having a meaningful impact because when the 500mb geo height peaks at 534 dam and the area of this pool is a massive extending from the Bass strait to as far west as the ACT, south of Sydney some people are going to do very well.

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#1463158 - 05/05/2018 16:55 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4756
I don't think anyone is ruling it out just yet, just doesn't look good for the Hunter.
Its looks like a far south coast event.

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#1463159 - 05/05/2018 17:38 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1552
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
yes Eddy you are on it. its definitely on but it doesnt seem to be on the improve for us or indeed most of NSW. It pretty much looks to be going in the direction I noted in my post earlier this morning. Need the Upper cold pool to slow up or retrograde and thats not looking likely atm at least according to GFS.

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#1463160 - 05/05/2018 17:42 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
It’s still a while away I guess. Things can change quick .

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#1463163 - 05/05/2018 18:05 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4756
Out of all the models, I'm secretly hoping CMC comes off, better for the Hunter anyway!!

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#1463165 - 05/05/2018 18:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4756
Rapidly cooling off here, already 12.7c most likely my coldest night so far coming up. I just wonder how far away I am from my first frost of the year, from memory I think I had frost in mid to late May last year, I will check that one out.

Edit - First frost was 30th May last year.


Edited by EddyG (05/05/2018 18:17)

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#1463166 - 05/05/2018 18:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: EddyG]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5709
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Rapidly cooling off here, already 12.7c most likely my coldest night so far coming up. I just wonder how far away I am from my first frost of the year, from memory I think I had frost in mid to late May last year, I will check that one out.

Edit - First frost was 30th May last year.


14.2 here atm. Still feels cold though. Glad the house is still holding some heat.
Ski.com forumers are pretty bullish about this event, but probably because at this stage it looks to be favouring the south of the state as you stated earlier. BOM has some pretty decent snow totals in this afternoon's forecast for the alps.
If nothing else, It'll start to feel more like winter during this event. Might even have to light the fire for this one.


**Good luck tonight for the GF. Atmosphere in Newcastle appears insane. What a perfect night weather wise it is for it. Go the Jets!!**

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#1463167 - 05/05/2018 18:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4756
Originally Posted By: Homer

**Good luck tonight for the GF. Atmosphere in Newcastle appears insane. What a perfect night weather wise it is for it. Go the Jets!!**


Thanks Homer, my young fella has been decked out in Jets gear all day!!


Temp 12.1c now.

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#1463169 - 05/05/2018 18:50 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: EddyG]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5709
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: Homer

**Good luck tonight for the GF. Atmosphere in Newcastle appears insane. What a perfect night weather wise it is for it. Go the Jets!!**


Thanks Homer, my young fella has been decked out in Jets gear all day!!


Temp 12.1c now.


Love it. It's such a big deal for your region for the kids, and us older kids too. smile

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#1463170 - 05/05/2018 18:52 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Antarctic Whaler Online   content
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 41
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,210 m AMS...
Possible snow next Friday, fellas! –1° C / 5° C for Black Springs on Friday; –2° C / 7° C for Oberon Springbank on BOM (1,053 m AMSL). Blayney, Crookwell, Hobbys Yards, Millthorpe, Sunny Corner, Trunkey Creek, Yetholme and the like could see some snowfalls, too.

cheers
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