Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >
Topic Options
#1463171 - 05/05/2018 18:53 SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018
Squeako_88 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 457
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Looks like a decent upper trough is likely to interact with a moist onshore airflow during Monday/Early Tuesday increasing showers/rain and possible embedded storms most likely along the coasts and hinterland before easing off during Tuesday. Models are currently favouring the heavier falls to occur between north of Brisbane and Sunshine Coast as there appears to be a coastal trough in the vicinity.



Edited by Seabreeze (07/05/2018 21:05)
Edit Reason: added year
_________________________
Records are MEANT to be broken.

Top
#1463182 - 05/05/2018 20:22 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Fingys crossed
Very dry here
Water tank empty as of today
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1463188 - 05/05/2018 22:00 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
CirrusFibratus Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 357
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Grass is mown, bring it on grin
_________________________
Wunderground station ID: IQUEENSL296

Top
#1463209 - 06/05/2018 09:38 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gona hang out heaps of washing & a wood fired BBQ. Must attract something wet.

Top
#1463248 - 06/05/2018 18:40 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 437
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Southerly breezes here were quite active this afternoon, with a moist feel, but rain forecasts appear to be easing off.
_________________________
Models are for estimating and gauges are for knowledge.

Top
#1463257 - 06/05/2018 19:23 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yup
Probably cloudy with 0.5mm for the week
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1463262 - 06/05/2018 20:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5161
If you happen to be one of the lucky ones in the right areas in relation to the max upmotion ahead of the upper troughs, I still wouldn't be surprised if some decent rainfall amounts occurred, even more than some people's expectations.

In the most favourable areas, there's a good combo of moist onshore flow, upmotion/backing winds with height, a midlevel convergence zone, and a localised convergence zone near the coast.

Wednesday still looks more complicated to me - once one or more small lows form off the coast and start flicking southerlies up the coast, this may start to offset any effects on rainfall from the next upper trough.

The big low developing over SE Australia with a burst of W to SW'lies behind it towards the end of the week still looks interesting also although a bit beyond the scope of this thread.

Below is the accumulating rainfall scenarios for Brisbane from some of the models including EC, GFS, ACCESS-G, etc (CMC being a usual outlier) and the percentages (not rainfall amounts) of all the scenarios from three of the ensembles (using Saturday night's 12z run) that are going for more than a total of 25mm of rainfall over the Mon to Wed period:





Top
#1463264 - 06/05/2018 20:30 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 437
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Rain drops just happened briefly... not enough to call it a shower ... though something promising at least for a moment. It would be nice if it went further inland and persisted to produce rain where needed.

Top
#1463265 - 06/05/2018 20:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks Ken
Very informative
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1463283 - 07/05/2018 10:42 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Well must admitt. Woke up this morning. Sun was out and thought fizzer
However weather has deteriorated hope yet
Forum very quiet.
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1463287 - 07/05/2018 10:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1797
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all not much happening out here. Had a sprinkle about 7.30 am but nothing in the gauge but dust lol.
_________________________
Cheers Doug. 491 Doug/ uhf ch40 When severe weather
BOM Stormspotter G0388 Roma S W Queensland Formerly Redcliffe.
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=IQUEENSL852

Top
#1463290 - 07/05/2018 11:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4531
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 3.4mm since 0900.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun30.0(74),YTD634.4(701.1),

Top
#1463311 - 07/05/2018 14:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1187
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Nice light rain here for the last hour, looks good on radar with a big, solid area of slow moving rain across most of the wide bay-burnett. Heavier falls towards the coast with 12mm in Gympie in the last hour. If I can manage more than 10mm in my gauge out here I'll be happy smile
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 315mm ytd

Top
#1463312 - 07/05/2018 14:43 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 70
Loc: noosaville
Starting to really deteriorate here on the sunny coast. A couple of very heavy showers just came over with plenty more on the way. They are moving through pretty quickly though which is limiting totals for now.

Top
#1463315 - 07/05/2018 14:58 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 239
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Good steady rain comin in across the coast and into the hinterland. Beautiful
_________________________
We don't just do odd jobs, we do jobs that are odd

Top
#1463316 - 07/05/2018 15:05 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1147
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Nothing here just cloud
_________________________
Wynnum SE Brisbane

Top
#1463324 - 07/05/2018 16:51 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Whisper Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 194
Loc: Gympie
Bucketing down here in Gympie since 12.30pm and hasn't stopped. Cant wait to find out how much rain we have had but at a guess I would say about 50mm.

Top
#1463325 - 07/05/2018 17:02 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3326
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Very light rain last hour or so.
Radar looking nice, hope the chunkier falls come a bit further south.

Top
#1463330 - 07/05/2018 18:08 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Whisper]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1495
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Whisper
Bucketing down here in Gympie since 12.30pm and hasn't stopped. Cant wait to find out how much rain we have had but at a guess I would say about 50mm.


Yes Gympie has had 50mm looking at the latest data

Top
#1463339 - 07/05/2018 19:17 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1133
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Light shower since 3pm here. About 6 mm perhaps smile
_________________________
Jimbour rain: 2018-131.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5

2017-559, Jan-103.5, Feb-67.5, Mar-118.5, April-0, May-7, June-21.5, July 33.5, Aug-2.5, September-1, Oct-112, Nov-21, December-98

2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

Top
Page 1 of 3 1 2 3 >


Who's Online
12 registered (Jimi, snowforus, Homer, Warwick Eye2Sky, mysteriousbrad, Whisper, petethemoskeet, ifishcq, whatscracken, samboz, retired weather man, 1 invisible), 305 Guests and 3 Spiders online.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Today's Birthdays
mattgmc87, mattmelb02
Forum Stats
29583 Members
32 Forums
23919 Topics
1492784 Posts

Max Online: 2925 @ 02/02/2011 22:23
Satellite Image