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#1463171 - 05/05/2018 18:53 SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018
Squeako_88 Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2005
Posts: 458
Loc: Elimbah 4516
Looks like a decent upper trough is likely to interact with a moist onshore airflow during Monday/Early Tuesday increasing showers/rain and possible embedded storms most likely along the coasts and hinterland before easing off during Tuesday. Models are currently favouring the heavier falls to occur between north of Brisbane and Sunshine Coast as there appears to be a coastal trough in the vicinity.



Edited by Seabreeze (07/05/2018 21:05)
Edit Reason: added year
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#1463182 - 05/05/2018 20:22 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Fingys crossed
Very dry here
Water tank empty as of today
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#1463188 - 05/05/2018 22:00 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
CirrusFibratus Offline
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Registered: 17/09/2015
Posts: 394
Loc: Strathpine, QLD
Grass is mown, bring it on grin
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#1463209 - 06/05/2018 09:38 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Gona hang out heaps of washing & a wood fired BBQ. Must attract something wet.

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#1463248 - 06/05/2018 18:40 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Southerly breezes here were quite active this afternoon, with a moist feel, but rain forecasts appear to be easing off.
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#1463257 - 06/05/2018 19:23 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Yup
Probably cloudy with 0.5mm for the week
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#1463262 - 06/05/2018 20:21 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5392
If you happen to be one of the lucky ones in the right areas in relation to the max upmotion ahead of the upper troughs, I still wouldn't be surprised if some decent rainfall amounts occurred, even more than some people's expectations.

In the most favourable areas, there's a good combo of moist onshore flow, upmotion/backing winds with height, a midlevel convergence zone, and a localised convergence zone near the coast.

Wednesday still looks more complicated to me - once one or more small lows form off the coast and start flicking southerlies up the coast, this may start to offset any effects on rainfall from the next upper trough.

The big low developing over SE Australia with a burst of W to SW'lies behind it towards the end of the week still looks interesting also although a bit beyond the scope of this thread.

Below is the accumulating rainfall scenarios for Brisbane from some of the models including EC, GFS, ACCESS-G, etc (CMC being a usual outlier) and the percentages (not rainfall amounts) of all the scenarios from three of the ensembles (using Saturday night's 12z run) that are going for more than a total of 25mm of rainfall over the Mon to Wed period:





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#1463264 - 06/05/2018 20:30 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Rain drops just happened briefly... not enough to call it a shower ... though something promising at least for a moment. It would be nice if it went further inland and persisted to produce rain where needed.

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#1463265 - 06/05/2018 20:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Thanks Ken
Very informative
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#1463283 - 07/05/2018 10:42 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Well must admitt. Woke up this morning. Sun was out and thought fizzer
However weather has deteriorated hope yet
Forum very quiet.
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#1463287 - 07/05/2018 10:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
ozone doug Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/11/2006
Posts: 1863
Loc: Roma SW QLD Eye to the West...
Hi all not much happening out here. Had a sprinkle about 7.30 am but nothing in the gauge but dust lol.
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#1463290 - 07/05/2018 11:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4740
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 3.4mm since 0900.
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Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct129.8(95)YTD851.4(928.6)

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#1463311 - 07/05/2018 14:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1207
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
Nice light rain here for the last hour, looks good on radar with a big, solid area of slow moving rain across most of the wide bay-burnett. Heavier falls towards the coast with 12mm in Gympie in the last hour. If I can manage more than 10mm in my gauge out here I'll be happy smile
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2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1463312 - 07/05/2018 14:43 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
gberg Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 14/08/2015
Posts: 88
Loc: noosaville
Starting to really deteriorate here on the sunny coast. A couple of very heavy showers just came over with plenty more on the way. They are moving through pretty quickly though which is limiting totals for now.

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#1463315 - 07/05/2018 14:58 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
DDstorm Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 13/05/2010
Posts: 285
Loc: Tallai, QLD
Good steady rain comin in across the coast and into the hinterland. Beautiful
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#1463316 - 07/05/2018 15:05 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
Nothing here just cloud
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#1463324 - 07/05/2018 16:51 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Whisper Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 196
Loc: Gympie
Bucketing down here in Gympie since 12.30pm and hasn't stopped. Cant wait to find out how much rain we have had but at a guess I would say about 50mm.

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#1463325 - 07/05/2018 17:02 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Very light rain last hour or so.
Radar looking nice, hope the chunkier falls come a bit further south.

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#1463330 - 07/05/2018 18:08 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Whisper]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1574
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Whisper
Bucketing down here in Gympie since 12.30pm and hasn't stopped. Cant wait to find out how much rain we have had but at a guess I would say about 50mm.


Yes Gympie has had 50mm looking at the latest data

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#1463339 - 07/05/2018 19:17 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Lani Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/01/2011
Posts: 1174
Loc: Jimbour, QLD
Light shower since 3pm here. About 6 mm perhaps smile
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Jimbour rain: 2018-320.5, Jan-4, Feb-100, Mar-12, Apr-6, May-9.5, June-21.5, July-2, Aug-8.5, Sept- 17, Oct-144

2017 - 559
2016 - 563.5
2015 - 702.5
2014 - 418.5

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#1463343 - 07/05/2018 19:28 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld

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#1463344 - 07/05/2018 19:45 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
Just amazing how that rain evaporates west of a line SE of Esk to Wivenhoe. 3mm so far. Those ranges taking the edge off it.


Edited by Mad Elf #1.5 (07/05/2018 19:46)

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#1463346 - 07/05/2018 20:18 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1126
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
How good is that vapour loop? , light rain here last 90mins or so, wouldn’t have had 5mm yet I’d be guessing. Will enjoy the sound of the roof tonight.

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#1463347 - 07/05/2018 20:25 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 462
Loc: Salisbury
Still waiting on the rain to reach Salisbury...had some very very light drizzle here, but nothing you'd really call rain yet. Can hear a few drops on the tin roof as I type this, so It's not to far away I'd say.

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#1463348 - 07/05/2018 20:35 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Namarrkun]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
Started here about 4:30 constant rain with intermittent heavier stuff. Pool filling nicely. Must be 45-50 so far. Gold!

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#1463349 - 07/05/2018 20:39 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Looking like there is a fair chance somewhere on Sunshine Coast may exceed 100 mm total (since 9 am)
http://www.bom.gov.au/qld/flood/mary.shtml


Edited by Flowin (07/05/2018 20:40)
Edit Reason: link

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#1463352 - 07/05/2018 21:01 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Snapper22lb Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/02/2015
Posts: 305
Loc: Golden Beach
80 in M'dore - started up there early afternoon and hasn't let up.

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#1463354 - 07/05/2018 21:41 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 462
Loc: Salisbury
0.0mm for Salisbury currently...rains in no hurry to get here apparently

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#1463355 - 07/05/2018 21:48 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1320
Loc: toowoomba
Just started raining here in Toowoomba only lightly at the moment.

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#1463356 - 07/05/2018 21:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 98
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
55mm so far here in the valley.
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ‘wetdreams’….

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#1463364 - 08/05/2018 07:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
A few locations at Sunshine Coast got rain totals over 100 mm since 9am. Yandina, Eumundi, Wappa Dam, Poona Dam, Coolum West. Mooloolah River and Maroochy rivers got a small rise in levels.
Nice drop for some smile

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#1463366 - 08/05/2018 07:56 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4740
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth rain since 0900 yesterday 15.8mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct129.8(95)YTD851.4(928.6)

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#1463368 - 08/05/2018 08:02 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1042
Loc: Warwick, QLD
2.5mm of rain here last night.
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Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1463369 - 08/05/2018 08:27 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
LightningGus Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/05/2012
Posts: 1207
Loc: Kingaroy QLD 434m ASL
19.0mm here, almost double what was forecast. Love it when rainfall exceeds the forecast ammounts! Turned out to be a nice little event and the best rain we've had since late Feb smile
_________________________
2016 Rainfall: 604mm
2017 Rainfall: 715mm
2018 Rainfall: 510mm ytd

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#1463371 - 08/05/2018 08:57 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Mad Elf #1.5 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 3524
Loc: Mt Hallen QLD
8.5mm here.

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#1463374 - 08/05/2018 09:32 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
Wight Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 11/12/2011
Posts: 45
Loc: Montville, QLD
73mm here since midday yesterday. Occasional light showers this morning.

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#1463375 - 08/05/2018 09:39 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May 2018 [Re: Squeako_88]
tsunami Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 06/12/2010
Posts: 1226
Loc: Wynnum SE Brisbane
19mm for event so far. Happy with that. Although radar showing another good dump about to get here
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Wynnum SE Brisbane

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#1463378 - 08/05/2018 10:22 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 462
Loc: Salisbury
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
2.5mm of rain here last night.
was camped out Warwick way (Elbow Valley) over the weekend, can see why you guys need much more then that amount out your way...would have barely settled the dust for ya’s.
8.6mm for Salisbury so far.

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#1463388 - 08/05/2018 13:16 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1042
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Oh yes, you are right about that Namarrkun. Sitting out here in Inglewood at the present time. Nice heavy shower just moved through. I would guess around 6-8mm? Still raining a bit. Nice to see scattered showers out this way.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1463390 - 08/05/2018 13:38 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1042
Loc: Warwick, QLD
I am guessing around 12-15mm right now in downtown Inglewood. One little cell just sitting over the area....
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1463393 - 08/05/2018 15:19 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
pabloako Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 30/03/2007
Posts: 1647
Loc: Ocean View, Queensland
14mm yesterday and 8mm for today, where I am.
That has nicely topped up the tanks, so very welcome!
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#1463394 - 08/05/2018 16:00 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 98
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Looks like these showers are pushing a bit further inland, hope those that need it are getting some from this..

73mm for us from the event so far.

We just installed as new tank at Easter time, happy to see it overflowing this afternoon.
Fingers crossed we can go without having to truck water in this year.


Edited by wetdreams (08/05/2018 16:00)
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ‘wetdreams’….

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#1463398 - 08/05/2018 17:36 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4740
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 8.0mm since 0900.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct129.8(95)YTD851.4(928.6)

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#1463400 - 08/05/2018 17:42 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: wetdreams]
Flowin Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/10/2017
Posts: 526
Loc: Pinjarra Hills, Qld
Originally Posted By: wetdreams
Looks like these showers are pushing a bit further inland, hope those that need it are getting some from this.

Yes notably further inland than what forecast indicated.
A cell just passing over Boondall also suggests pockets of activity remain strong

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#1463415 - 08/05/2018 21:30 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
ColdFront Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 29/06/2008
Posts: 18549
Loc: The Beach.
I drove through some good rain out west this afternoon. Heavy showers around Moonie and Dalby.
_________________________
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#1463416 - 08/05/2018 21:59 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1042
Loc: Warwick, QLD
The best rainfall we have had out here in several months. Some good moderate falls at times. Likely around 10mm. Will have to double check that in the morning.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1463421 - 09/05/2018 05:52 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
Namarrkun Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/11/2012
Posts: 462
Loc: Salisbury
Another 8.6mm received at Salisbury since yesterday's posting around 10.30 a.m, made it 17.2mm event total

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#1463424 - 09/05/2018 07:31 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
retired weather man Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4740
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth 24 hour rain 12.6mm. Event total 29.2mm.
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct129.8(95)YTD851.4(928.6)

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#1463430 - 09/05/2018 08:35 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Warwick Eye2Sky]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1574
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Warwick Eye2Sky
The best rainfall we have had out here in several months. Some good moderate falls at times. Likely around 10mm. Will have to double check that in the morning.


Great news for you guys

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#1463436 - 09/05/2018 10:47 Re: SE QLD/ NE NSW Showers/Rain Possible storms. 6th-9th May [Re: Squeako_88]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1042
Loc: Warwick, QLD
Yes Gleno, 10.5mm yesterday and 2.5mm the day before. Still need much more of course, but very welcome indeed. More than what was expected too.
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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