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#1463428 - 09/05/2018 08:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6877
GFS has got the low as a 989hPa one so it will be hellishly windy here on Friday afternoon with winds from the west.

Main snow now could in fact be Thursday night so the start date could be changed to the 10th now.

GFS already has another possible snowfall next Wednesday night, we'll see if that one firms up with 850mb temps down to -3 currently.


Edited by Wave Rider (09/05/2018 08:19)
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1463429 - 09/05/2018 08:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4953
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer


4 - 80 mm's? lol. Hedging bets much?



That's like putting a dollar each way on every horse in the Melbourne cup and hoping the longest shot gets up!!
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Rainfall
MTD - 12.4mm
YTD - 813.5mm
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#1463431 - 09/05/2018 08:35 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No snow chase this weekend frown

Sure is looking like our warmer weather will be long gone after this weekend....EC going for a brief max of 14 here Friday which is 6 below after being mainly 11-12 most of the day brrrrrrr sadly very little precip for the eastern side of the ranges unless the low moves north. Saturday & Sunday also look frigid.

Agree WR Thursday night is a go for wet snow in the higher exposed peaks of the Oberon Plateau.

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#1463432 - 09/05/2018 08:43 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4953
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Least we don't have to go far for a wind chase!!
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Rainfall
MTD - 12.4mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1463433 - 09/05/2018 08:47 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: EddyG]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Least we don't have to go far for a wind chase!!


Indeed, bring out the cabbage 😂😂

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#1463442 - 09/05/2018 12:01 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1718
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Good storms off the coast.
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#1463444 - 09/05/2018 14:20 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23686
Loc: Townsville
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.
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#1463447 - 09/05/2018 15:51 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


Edited by Homer (09/05/2018 15:53)

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#1463448 - 09/05/2018 16:04 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2805
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


As soon as the next high moves in they will be at it again unfortunately. frown
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#1463449 - 09/05/2018 16:12 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


As soon as the next high moves in they will be at it again unfortunately. frown


No doubt.

This is the culprit......Solitary Peak - Blue Mountains.

https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/fire-season-17-18.79374/page-9


Edited by Homer (09/05/2018 16:15)

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#1463452 - 09/05/2018 16:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23686
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


Sure was, after about 1pm the sun actually had some bite to it. I was surprised!

Ive been watching this system quietly for a week now so definately remembered the jumper....I wont lie i had it on this morning haha.


The smoke was disgusting this morning. Must have been a big inversion?
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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#1463454 - 09/05/2018 16:47 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6877
Snow falling above 1000m now in the forecast for the Southern and Central Tablelands for tomorrow evening and 800m on Friday. What a surprise for early May.

Not too keen on moisture though especially for the CT's. ST's for tomorrow says high chance of showers in the NW (ie Crookwell) slight chance elsewhere. High chance of showers on Friday. CT's says medium chance in the west, slight chance elsewhere for tomorrow. Friday has medium chance in the south, slight elsewhere.


Edited by Wave Rider (09/05/2018 16:51)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1463459 - 09/05/2018 17:48 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Snow falling above 1000m now in the forecast for the Southern and Central Tablelands for tomorrow evening and 800m on Friday. What a surprise for early May.

Not too keen on moisture though especially for the CT's. ST's for tomorrow says high chance of showers in the NW (ie Crookwell) slight chance elsewhere. High chance of showers on Friday. CT's says medium chance in the west, slight chance elsewhere for tomorrow. Friday has medium chance in the south, slight elsewhere.


Yeh mate, it's a real mixed bag atm, and as you say, moisture might be an issue. Rainfall totals have reduced dramatically since yesterday.
Places like Nimmitabel and Bombala might do ok.
This could be a system where there is snow in strange places.
It's saying something when the forecasts are flopping around a bit this close to the system.
More a case that we are almost at the point (within 24 hrs) to watching the real time obs, as forecasts won't change much overnight. Tomorrow afternoons will give us the closest accurate idea of what will happen, and by then, the system is upon us.

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#1463463 - 09/05/2018 18:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 364
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
We would be looking at a lot more rain if the winds were SE but Sadly the low will wrap SW winds, unless the Low changes to be forecast inland. I wouldn't be surprised if a mesoscale vortex formed although it would more likely be within Victoria rather than NSW.

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#1463474 - 09/05/2018 20:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4953
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


Yes could see that filth from up here late this afternoon. See pic below, smoke above the sun.
_MG_8103 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
_________________________
Rainfall
MTD - 12.4mm
YTD - 813.5mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1463483 - 09/05/2018 23:24 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Still a chance of decent rainfall along the coast depending on the low movements. GFS and ACCESS look better tonight.

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#1463488 - 10/05/2018 05:55 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: DaveM]
Morham Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2017
Posts: 104
Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
At least it's something a bit interesting grin

Agreed. I like seeing that big fat swirling cold blob on the various images floating around.

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#1463492 - 10/05/2018 08:31 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6877
Can really smell the smoke here this morning, like we in are in the bush.

It appeared more hazy but little smell yesterday but I think this morning it has settled right to sea level


Edited by Wave Rider (10/05/2018 08:33)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1463499 - 10/05/2018 11:40 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Temp appears to have maxxed at a bit over 17, now back to about 16 and slowly falling.

Mid levels puffies starting up all around me - small so far but slowly growing.

Leading edge of the first main cloud band is now at Cowra which is about 100km to my SW.

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#1463500 - 10/05/2018 11:43 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/06/2013
Posts: 1718
Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Westerly is started up here now.I hope the low moves right up the east coast to give us the SE winds under it and a deluge.
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Click here for Ellalong live weathercam,The camera is facing west towards the Wollombi,Putty area,the video live stream will be online longer, if any storms or severe weather.

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