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#1463504 - 10/05/2018 12:28 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3130
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
My personal thoughts about this event.

For the Illawarra I think that wind is going to be main issue. I think the wind speeds Access and Meteye models have, even though they are not max gusts are undercooked. Experience here would suggest 50knot, maybe 60knot, or 90-100kph gusts not out of question late Friday / Early Saturday.

There will also be a big sea Sunday, honeycomb rocks at Port Kembla may be interesting. Blowhole at Kiama may be worth a drive, although SE swell Direction is more preferred there - which it may get to late Sunday, more likely Monday.

Rainfall I would not worry too much, showers will run parallel to coast. I would be extremely happy too get 10-20mm out of it. Although late Monday and into Tuesday may surprise.
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#1463505 - 10/05/2018 12:33 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Defs, winds look savage for us and under-forecasted. Gale force wind warning out for Friday.

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#1463506 - 10/05/2018 12:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Wind really increasing over the last hour.

Very blustery and feels cooler despite temp having risen to about 19 at the moment.

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#1463507 - 10/05/2018 12:52 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23686
Loc: Townsville
I agree Re. Winds been underforecasted so far.

I fly out 5pm tomorrow, expecting to be taking off in 40-50 knot gusts.
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2015/16 Storms
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#1463513 - 10/05/2018 14:05 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6877
I would actually be a bit surprised if there werent 100km/h or at least 90k gusts here.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
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Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1463515 - 10/05/2018 14:14 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
right now we are 18 degrees and Orange is dipped below 10 - huge variation.

It's on the way!!

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#1463516 - 10/05/2018 14:16 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 61
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Wind starting to really pickup here in Stanhope Gardens getting wind gusts up to 40km/ph from the west. Looks like the cold front has passed through Goulburn around 1:30pm and is now approaching the Southern Highlands.

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#1463518 - 10/05/2018 14:38 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Sporadic showers here now, drops sound "hard" on metal roof.

Cooling down obviously when standing outside, dropped from 18 to under 15 in a short time.

Orange down to about 8

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#1463519 - 10/05/2018 14:39 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Cowra is 12, it's usually hotter than here by 2 or 3 degrees.

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#1463520 - 10/05/2018 14:55 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 61
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Some of the PWS on the slopes of Mt Canobolas are now down to 5.5’c under the SW. Should be cold enough for snow up top when the moisture arrives.


Edited by Northwesterly (10/05/2018 14:58)

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#1463521 - 10/05/2018 14:56 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10132
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We down to 11 now and Orange (airport) about 7.

Getting cool out there smile

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#1463522 - 10/05/2018 15:08 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
I noticed this earlier that on the Sydney radar, it looks as though that hazard reduction in the Blue Mountains had really taken off in the winds. It was showing up very clearly on the radar.
Hopefully the moisture arrives soon.

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#1463523 - 10/05/2018 15:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 61
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Front has just passed through Robertson and is now approaching Wollongong. Robertson has dropped 7’c in the last 30 mins and is now around 9’c

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#1463525 - 10/05/2018 16:08 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4226
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The change seems to be knocking about 6 degrees off temperatures as it passes through. It's reached Bellambi, it seems to be passing through Camden and Campbelltown about now.

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#1463526 - 10/05/2018 16:13 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The change seems to be knocking about 6 degrees off temperatures as it passes through. It's reached Bellambi, it seems to be passing through Camden and Campbelltown about now.


Yep.

The APP temp at Albion Park went from 15.6 at 3.00 pm to 5.7 at 4.00 pm, with an increase in humidity and a swing of winds from westerly to WSW'erly.

Sat pics and radar look very juicy for the Alps.


Edited by Homer (10/05/2018 16:15)

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#1463527 - 10/05/2018 16:24 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23686
Loc: Townsville
Anyone going up to Katoomba tonight haha?


Wind has increased significantly here in the last hour. Gustin to 40kmhr in exposed parts already.
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#1463529 - 10/05/2018 16:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2263
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Arrived here; 6c drop almost instantaneously, winds now getting up to 60/70km/h gusts. Few spits of rain too and a few snow/hail shafts off the back of those cu off the coast.

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#1463530 - 10/05/2018 16:40 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Antarctic Whaler Online   content
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 54
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,228-1,265...
Ayyyy, it's certainly arrived. This is only the start, however... grin smile
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“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1463531 - 10/05/2018 16:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Antarctic Whaler]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5855
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Antarctic Whaler
Ayyyy, it's certainly arrived. This is only the start, however... grin smile


Temperature up your way is?

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#1463532 - 10/05/2018 17:10 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23686
Loc: Townsville
7C drop in 10 mins.

Brought my kestrel
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2015/16 Storms
13 Storms 2500km travelled

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