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#1463681 - 11/05/2018 15:25 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Northwesterly]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5701
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Northwesterly
What type of system would be required for snow to fall on the eastern peaks of the ranges, e.g Robertson, Bowral, Blackheath v the current system which brings snow to Orange and Oberon areas?


ECL's combined with an upper cold pool usually provide the best falls.

The higher ground to the west of the BM's and Southern Highlands sucks a lot of the moisture out of more westerly systems.

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#1463682 - 11/05/2018 15:35 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yep, ECL’s or Cutoffs that form on the east coast instead of to the south or over land.

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#1463683 - 11/05/2018 15:50 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 58
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Thanks for the explanation, hopefully we get a couple of these this winter!!
Enjoying the cold weather. I maxed out today on my PWS at 15.9c and so far my strongest wind gust has been 38km from the WNW, this may change if we get the gale force winds tonight that the media are talking about. smile


Edited by Northwesterly (11/05/2018 15:51)

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#1463685 - 11/05/2018 16:03 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Moisture seems to have big problems crossing the Divide. Rain from ECLs is generally confined into the coast and Eastern side of the ranges, while cold fronts from the SW dump most of their moisture on the Western side.

The Blue Mountains can do well in either type of system, depending upon how much moisture is available. In this system, most of the moisture was well away to the South. The little that did reach the Central Tablelands couldn't get across.

----

Sydney OH has had its coldest maximum since August 28 unless it warms up before 9:00 tomorrow. It might warm up before then with a shift in wind direction to the S-SE.

-----

Re Bega, it seems to be warm in a Westerly. We noticed that in last month's heatwaves with hot Westerlies. I think it gets a strong Foehn effect over the Snowy Mountains.

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#1463686 - 11/05/2018 16:04 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
Mt Boyce has reached just 4.2 today and 7.2 at Bathurst. Those are some extraordinary maximums for May.

Also Bega has an added effect of being north of the cold pool this arvo so 850mb temps are also warmer pver that area than areas around Sydney.


Edited by Wave Rider (11/05/2018 16:11)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1463688 - 11/05/2018 17:02 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5701
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Mt Boyce has reached just 4.2 today and 7.2 at Bathurst. Those are some extraordinary maximums for May.

Also Bega has an added effect of being north of the cold pool this arvo so 850mb temps are also warmer pver that area than areas around Sydney.


Yep, exactly right mate. The models days out were showing the cut off cold pools heading up through central NSW and then fading out. It's exactly what has happened.
Definitely some nice low max's today in some areas which reinforces that.
The low will now start sucking in air from the warmer Tasman which will warm up temps. There'll still be some snow lingering however.

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#1463698 - 11/05/2018 19:58 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.

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#1463700 - 11/05/2018 20:26 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.

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#1463701 - 11/05/2018 20:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.
gfs 16 day has it not moving at all. Wtf

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#1463702 - 11/05/2018 20:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Could an extended widespread frost be on the cards?

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#1463705 - 11/05/2018 21:09 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.


I’ll believe it when it happens. Models have been down right unless lately so I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on anything outside of 5 days.

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#1463706 - 11/05/2018 21:11 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And here comes the southerly part of the low with a large slab of cold drizzle approaching from the south, currently around Ulladulla.

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#1463710 - 11/05/2018 21:55 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.


I’ll believe it when it happens. Models have been down right unless lately so I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on anything outside of 5 days.

It starts in less than 5 days.

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#1463711 - 11/05/2018 21:58 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 895
Loc: Cammeray
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Sydney OH has had its coldest maximum since August 28 unless it warms up before 9:00 tomorrow. It might warm up before then with a shift in wind direction to the S-SE.


Today was colder than all but eight days in 2017.

31/05/17
27/06/17
28/06/17
1/7/17
3/7/17
12/7/17
20/8/17
27/8/17

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#1463713 - 11/05/2018 22:28 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
And the 7.2°C at Bathurst (assuming it does not rise before 9am) was in fact colder than any day last year. More than anything, it shows how mild last winter was.

Also noticed that Parkes and Cowra failed to reach 10 degrees today.



Edited by Wave Rider (11/05/2018 22:34)
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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#1463714 - 11/05/2018 22:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.


I’ll believe it when it happens. Models have been down right unless lately so I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on anything outside of 5 days.


I reckon the models are believable when there is such a static pattern forecasted. If the models predict a huge high for 8 days, that will generally be the outcome.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

Top
#1463717 - 12/05/2018 04:31 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4096
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There's a big blob of rain moving Northwards up the coast, just reaching Sydney. It's also warmed up, although winds are still Westerly. Falls on the South Coast don't look that big, mostly under 5 mm. The heaviest rain is out to sea.

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#1463718 - 12/05/2018 06:38 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
Some nasty gusts in exposed areas of the South Coast. Montague Island gusts to 104km/h and 113 at Green Cape
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

Top
#1463721 - 12/05/2018 07:52 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3780
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Noting that some places have warmed quite significantly on the wraparound (e.g. Canberra has been to 11.6 this morning after peaking at 9.0 during the day yesterday).

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#1463723 - 12/05/2018 08:19 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6778
Yeah I did notice that this morning, Bathurst now is up to 9°C also.
_________________________
The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

2017-18 storm total= 11
Oct 25th
Nov 6th(3), 17th
Dec 2nd, 14th
Jan 2nd(2), 8th(2), 9th

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