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#1463357 - 07/05/2018 22:23 NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018
Wave Rider Offline
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I think it's time to kick this one off. It is pretty early but I am quite confident that there will be low level snow.

06z GFS still sticking with its guns in terms of cold with 850mb temps down to -3 at on Friday morning. Precip totals do look pretty slack tbh but should be enough orographic lift for snow on the higher parts exposed to the west. Orange may get some and Crookwell or at least the high ground to the SW will get snow as that is very exposed there. Warms up a little during the day but still below zero at 850mb, but not much moisture east of Bathurst so even Shooters Hill may struggle on Friday during the day. Sunny Corner will probably see light snow showers.

Friday night/Sat morning gets very interesting. The low forms off the NSW/VIC border, wrapping around cold air and quite a lot of precip. Most of it will be west and south of Bathurst but it penetrates possibly as east as the lower BM's so it looks like there will be heavy precip with 850mb temps still at 0 at 4am Saturday, but around Taralga area as low as -2. So my point here is that when the low forms, the air will mix pretty randomly so there could be a surprise low level fall if 900mb temps are really low for example, like 14th Oct 2014 in Lithgow and Blackheath. It warms up during the day with even more widespread precip covering the CT's by 4pm with 3-5mm and 850mb temps still around 0 to 1 so maybe some very marginal but heavy snow. Interestingly, unlike earlier runs, the airmass stays cool on Saturday night, but warms quickly on Sunday. So in fact there could almost be two full days of snow at some locations.

Meanwhile, ACCESS warms 850mb temps drastically from Saturday morning so would be no hope of snow during the day if that came off. So still not sure what exactly will happen but I think something close to the GFS situation will happen, I just have a feeling. But on the other hand I would not be surprised if it happened this way since it would just be my luck.

EC also in alignment with the other models in terms of cold 850mb temps on Friday. It is showing snow all day for the Oberon Plateau, but shouldn't be too heavy on Friday. It also continues all night and into Saturday morning where it could get a fair bit heavier before the warm air intrudes in the late morning. So it is in agreement with ACCESS, while GFS holds on to the cold temps through the day with heavy snow especially in the arvo.


Edited by Wave Rider (07/05/2018 22:25)
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#1463358 - 07/05/2018 22:49 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Good thread start WR, a lot of analysis in there.

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#1463359 - 07/05/2018 23:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
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Splendid post as always, lad! smile grin I'll see what Black Springs & surrounds can offer wink

Let us hope for the best. Can't wait til this event initiates cheers bounce
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#1463370 - 08/05/2018 08:56 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
This event is pretty much looking dead in the water already, other than the highest peaks of the Snowies frown

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#1463372 - 08/05/2018 09:08 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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I would still bet on decent CT snow during Friday night and Saturday morning at this stage. Friday morning is coldest but not much moisture.
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#1463389 - 08/05/2018 13:22 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Hoping so WR - straws and everything crossed. If it happens, it's a significant cold event with temps in places the lowest this early since 1978!

Quote:
Widespread snow looms amid early-season cold snap
Ben Domensino, Tuesday May 8, 2018 - 12:30 EST
A pulse of Antarctic air will cause Australia's first widespread snowfall for 2018 at the end of this week.

A stray low pressure system venturing north from the Southern Ocean will cause temperatures to plummet across Australia's southeast in the coming days.

It is likely to get cold enough for snow to settle in Tasmania from Wednesday and in Victoria and NSW from Thursday. As the frigid air creeps further north during Friday and Saturday, snow could fall to low levels along the Great Dividing Range.

This system is likely to bring the first decent bout of snow for the year in Australia's alps. Models suggest that around 20-40cm of natural snow will accumulate in the alpine region between Thursday and Sunday.

Outside the alps, snow is forecast to reach down to 800-900 metres above sea level in central and western Victoria and over the Central Tablelands of NSW by Friday. Flakes may even fall over the Northern Tablelands of NSW if the cold air reaches far enough north during Friday night or Saturday morning.

While May snow is not uncommon in Australia, this is an unusually cold system for this early in the year.

Melbourne is forecast to reach highs of 13 degrees on Thursday and Friday, which would be the city's coldest pair of days this early in the season since 1978.

Canberra's forecast top of nine degrees on Friday would be the city's coldest day this early in the year since 1970.

Friday is also forecast to be the coldest day this early in the season for seven years at Thredbo (-3C), Cabramurra (0C), Ballarat (9C), Bendigo (12C) and Deniliquin (13C).

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#1463391 - 08/05/2018 13:43 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
petethemoskeet Offline
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Kino why do you think it's dead in the water?Apart from ACCESS all the other models are still on it especially EC.

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#1463392 - 08/05/2018 13:49 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Moisture....looks terrible at this stage (hoping PM runs will adjust nicely)**. It is sure going to be frigid but it will all depend on the low and it's wrap-around. No doubt the Oberon Plateau will see something, but for anything sub-1000m is unlikely at this stage - which means any snow chases for us east coastians is a min ~2.5 hours or more one way.

** terms and conditions apply

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#1463395 - 08/05/2018 16:40 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Thredbo TS in this afternoon's forecast going for 51 - 126 mm's - mostly snow.
This is an enormous system down south, especially for May.
Also Orange this afternoon has upgraded rain/snowfall totals up to 56 mm's. Much less snow though, but there will certainly be some.
At this stage.
This is May 2000-esque.


Edited by Homer (08/05/2018 16:47)

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#1463396 - 08/05/2018 16:43 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
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Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
At least it's something a bit interesting grin

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#1463397 - 08/05/2018 16:46 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Loc: Dural
Lol at the forecast for Mt Buller in VIC for Saturday.

"-5 C to +2.
Heavy snowfalls possible.
Possible rainfall: 4 - 80 mm's"


4 - 80 mm's? lol. Hedging bets much?
Also, 2 - 40 mm's predicted for Sunday. Maybe a zero was left off the lower amounts, otherwise, that's quite crazy.

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#1463399 - 08/05/2018 17:39 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
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I guess the 4-80mm is based on where the low is positioned. If its too far west like how some runs were predicting then its more likely for it to be on the lower end of the scale. The prediction range should decrease as we get closer to the date.

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#1463401 - 08/05/2018 17:43 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Sidney]
Homer Offline
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Sidney
I guess the 4-80mm is based on where the low is positioned. If its too far west like how some runs were predicting then its more likely for it to be on the lower end of the scale. The prediction range should decrease as we get closer to the date.


Yes, I sorta agree, but don't the BOM base their forecast's on a particular model? I couldn't imagine any model predicting a range like that.
Just asking.

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#1463402 - 08/05/2018 18:02 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Sidney Offline
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Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Sidney
I guess the 4-80mm is based on where the low is positioned. If its too far west like how some runs were predicting then its more likely for it to be on the lower end of the scale. The prediction range should decrease as we get closer to the date.


Yes, I sorta agree, but don't the BOM base their forecast's on a particular model? I couldn't imagine any model predicting a range like that.
Just asking.


Yeah i agree never seen BoM base their forecast on multiple models. First time i've seen such a drastic range with rainfall prediction.

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#1463404 - 08/05/2018 18:20 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Jimi Offline
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It’s not so much an expected range as a 50% chance of exceeding the lower limit and a 25% chance of exceeding the upper limit, isn’t it? Thought of that way it’s not too unreasonable (though I think there’s more than a 25% chance of the actual fall being between those numbers).

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#1463406 - 08/05/2018 18:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Jimi]
Steve777 Offline
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That is correct. The following page from the BOM refers: BOM Glossary R

Quote:
"Rainfall, Likely rainfall

Likely rainfall is the amount with a 50% chance of occurring during the day. This element is displayed as a map on MetEye. It is also used as the lower value of the Possible Rainfall range in the Bureau's town forecasts.

Rainfall, Possible higher rainfall

Possible higher rainfall is the amount with a 25% chance of occurring during the day. Conversely, there is a 75% chance that this amount may not be reached. This element is displayed as a map on MetEye. It is also used as the higher value of the Possible Rainfall range in the Bureau's town forecasts.

Rainfall, Possible rainfall range

The possible rainfall amount is included on the Bureau's town forecasts, and describes the expected rainfall range for the day at that location. The rainfall range is a useful tool to highlight the variability of certain types of rainfall days. On showery/thunderstorm days, the possible rainfall range may be quite large (e.g. 5 to 30 mm). When steady rainfall is expected over a wide area, the range may be smaller (e.g. 10 to 15mm).

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#1463407 - 08/05/2018 18:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Jimi]
Homer Offline
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Jimi
It’s not so much an expected range as a 50% chance of exceeding the lower limit and a 25% chance of exceeding the upper limit, isn’t it? Thought of that way it’s not too unreasonable (though I think there’s more than a 25% chance of the actual fall being between those numbers).


I understand percentages are involved in all rain/snow forecasts. It just seems an obscene range. The percentage given in the forecast was "Very high - 95%".
Just seems odd (or lazy) to me.

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#1463413 - 08/05/2018 20:48 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Rob G Offline
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Registered: 31/07/2003
Posts: 736
Loc: Porters Retreat NSW
They've upgraded forecast rain totals for us on Friday and Saturday. Potentially up to 30mm. May fall as snow with a high of 3 deg C on Friday and 5 deg C on Saturday.

If the event comes off it will be the wettest two days in many months, and the first lower than normal daytime temperatures for I don't how long. Probably about due after endless warmth and dry.

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#1463417 - 08/05/2018 22:00 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
You can see why they have hedged their bets - only EC is really gunning for this event now for the NSW Snowies, every other model keeps majority of the precip in Vict.

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#1463423 - 09/05/2018 07:26 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
samboz Offline
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Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
With you on this Homer, my W.A.G. is that the nature of ECL forecasting is still very much based, as said, on where the L wanders/develops, and that ECL forecasting isn't pinned down in models yet.

But a range of 4 to 80, I reckon most folks could make a wild a++e guess like that and say they were 95% certain if would rain...lol

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#1463428 - 09/05/2018 08:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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GFS has got the low as a 989hPa one so it will be hellishly windy here on Friday afternoon with winds from the west.

Main snow now could in fact be Thursday night so the start date could be changed to the 10th now.

GFS already has another possible snowfall next Wednesday night, we'll see if that one firms up with 850mb temps down to -3 currently.


Edited by Wave Rider (09/05/2018 08:19)
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#1463429 - 09/05/2018 08:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
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Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer


4 - 80 mm's? lol. Hedging bets much?



That's like putting a dollar each way on every horse in the Melbourne cup and hoping the longest shot gets up!!
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#1463431 - 09/05/2018 08:35 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
No snow chase this weekend frown

Sure is looking like our warmer weather will be long gone after this weekend....EC going for a brief max of 14 here Friday which is 6 below after being mainly 11-12 most of the day brrrrrrr sadly very little precip for the eastern side of the ranges unless the low moves north. Saturday & Sunday also look frigid.

Agree WR Thursday night is a go for wet snow in the higher exposed peaks of the Oberon Plateau.

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#1463432 - 09/05/2018 08:43 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
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Least we don't have to go far for a wind chase!!
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#1463433 - 09/05/2018 08:47 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: EddyG]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Least we don't have to go far for a wind chase!!


Indeed, bring out the cabbage 😂😂

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#1463442 - 09/05/2018 12:01 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
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Good storms off the coast.
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#1463444 - 09/05/2018 14:20 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.
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#1463447 - 09/05/2018 15:51 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


Edited by Homer (09/05/2018 15:53)

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#1463448 - 09/05/2018 16:04 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Registered: 10/07/2006
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Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


As soon as the next high moves in they will be at it again unfortunately. frown
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#1463449 - 09/05/2018 16:12 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


As soon as the next high moves in they will be at it again unfortunately. frown


No doubt.

This is the culprit......Solitary Peak - Blue Mountains.

https://www.ski.com.au/xf/threads/fire-season-17-18.79374/page-9


Edited by Homer (09/05/2018 16:15)

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#1463452 - 09/05/2018 16:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
im going to freeze on friday.....top of 16 in Sydneys west jesus.


Hope you brought a jumper with you. smile
Beautiful day today. 26.4 max at Olympic Park. Almost like home for you.......except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


Sure was, after about 1pm the sun actually had some bite to it. I was surprised!

Ive been watching this system quietly for a week now so definately remembered the jumper....I wont lie i had it on this morning haha.


The smoke was disgusting this morning. Must have been a big inversion?
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#1463454 - 09/05/2018 16:47 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Snow falling above 1000m now in the forecast for the Southern and Central Tablelands for tomorrow evening and 800m on Friday. What a surprise for early May.

Not too keen on moisture though especially for the CT's. ST's for tomorrow says high chance of showers in the NW (ie Crookwell) slight chance elsewhere. High chance of showers on Friday. CT's says medium chance in the west, slight chance elsewhere for tomorrow. Friday has medium chance in the south, slight elsewhere.


Edited by Wave Rider (09/05/2018 16:51)
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#1463459 - 09/05/2018 17:48 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Snow falling above 1000m now in the forecast for the Southern and Central Tablelands for tomorrow evening and 800m on Friday. What a surprise for early May.

Not too keen on moisture though especially for the CT's. ST's for tomorrow says high chance of showers in the NW (ie Crookwell) slight chance elsewhere. High chance of showers on Friday. CT's says medium chance in the west, slight chance elsewhere for tomorrow. Friday has medium chance in the south, slight elsewhere.


Yeh mate, it's a real mixed bag atm, and as you say, moisture might be an issue. Rainfall totals have reduced dramatically since yesterday.
Places like Nimmitabel and Bombala might do ok.
This could be a system where there is snow in strange places.
It's saying something when the forecasts are flopping around a bit this close to the system.
More a case that we are almost at the point (within 24 hrs) to watching the real time obs, as forecasts won't change much overnight. Tomorrow afternoons will give us the closest accurate idea of what will happen, and by then, the system is upon us.

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#1463463 - 09/05/2018 18:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
ashestoashes Offline
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Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
We would be looking at a lot more rain if the winds were SE but Sadly the low will wrap SW winds, unless the Low changes to be forecast inland. I wouldn't be surprised if a mesoscale vortex formed although it would more likely be within Victoria rather than NSW.

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#1463474 - 09/05/2018 20:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
except for the disgusting smoke.
At least the change will clear this [censored] away.


Yes could see that filth from up here late this afternoon. See pic below, smoke above the sun.
_MG_8103 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
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#1463483 - 09/05/2018 23:24 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Still a chance of decent rainfall along the coast depending on the low movements. GFS and ACCESS look better tonight.

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#1463488 - 10/05/2018 05:55 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: DaveM]
Morham Offline
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Registered: 23/01/2017
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Loc: Penrith, NSW
Originally Posted By: DaveM
At least it's something a bit interesting grin

Agreed. I like seeing that big fat swirling cold blob on the various images floating around.

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#1463492 - 10/05/2018 08:31 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Can really smell the smoke here this morning, like we in are in the bush.

It appeared more hazy but little smell yesterday but I think this morning it has settled right to sea level


Edited by Wave Rider (10/05/2018 08:33)
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#1463499 - 10/05/2018 11:40 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
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Registered: 21/05/2001
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Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Temp appears to have maxxed at a bit over 17, now back to about 16 and slowly falling.

Mid levels puffies starting up all around me - small so far but slowly growing.

Leading edge of the first main cloud band is now at Cowra which is about 100km to my SW.

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#1463500 - 10/05/2018 11:43 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Stormy3 Offline
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Registered: 12/06/2013
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Loc: Ellalong,10kms SW of Cessnock ...
Westerly is started up here now.I hope the low moves right up the east coast to give us the SE winds under it and a deluge.
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#1463504 - 10/05/2018 12:28 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
ozthunder Offline
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Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3165
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
My personal thoughts about this event.

For the Illawarra I think that wind is going to be main issue. I think the wind speeds Access and Meteye models have, even though they are not max gusts are undercooked. Experience here would suggest 50knot, maybe 60knot, or 90-100kph gusts not out of question late Friday / Early Saturday.

There will also be a big sea Sunday, honeycomb rocks at Port Kembla may be interesting. Blowhole at Kiama may be worth a drive, although SE swell Direction is more preferred there - which it may get to late Sunday, more likely Monday.

Rainfall I would not worry too much, showers will run parallel to coast. I would be extremely happy too get 10-20mm out of it. Although late Monday and into Tuesday may surprise.
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#1463505 - 10/05/2018 12:33 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Defs, winds look savage for us and under-forecasted. Gale force wind warning out for Friday.

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#1463506 - 10/05/2018 12:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Wind really increasing over the last hour.

Very blustery and feels cooler despite temp having risen to about 19 at the moment.

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#1463507 - 10/05/2018 12:52 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
I agree Re. Winds been underforecasted so far.

I fly out 5pm tomorrow, expecting to be taking off in 40-50 knot gusts.
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#1463513 - 10/05/2018 14:05 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
I would actually be a bit surprised if there werent 100km/h or at least 90k gusts here.
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#1463515 - 10/05/2018 14:14 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
right now we are 18 degrees and Orange is dipped below 10 - huge variation.

It's on the way!!

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#1463516 - 10/05/2018 14:16 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 63
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Wind starting to really pickup here in Stanhope Gardens getting wind gusts up to 40km/ph from the west. Looks like the cold front has passed through Goulburn around 1:30pm and is now approaching the Southern Highlands.

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#1463518 - 10/05/2018 14:38 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Sporadic showers here now, drops sound "hard" on metal roof.

Cooling down obviously when standing outside, dropped from 18 to under 15 in a short time.

Orange down to about 8

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#1463519 - 10/05/2018 14:39 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
Cowra is 12, it's usually hotter than here by 2 or 3 degrees.

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#1463520 - 10/05/2018 14:55 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
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Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 63
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Some of the PWS on the slopes of Mt Canobolas are now down to 5.5’c under the SW. Should be cold enough for snow up top when the moisture arrives.


Edited by Northwesterly (10/05/2018 14:58)

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#1463521 - 10/05/2018 14:56 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DaveM Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 21/05/2001
Posts: 10135
Loc: Bathurst NSW about 700 m asl
We down to 11 now and Orange (airport) about 7.

Getting cool out there smile

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#1463522 - 10/05/2018 15:08 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
I noticed this earlier that on the Sydney radar, it looks as though that hazard reduction in the Blue Mountains had really taken off in the winds. It was showing up very clearly on the radar.
Hopefully the moisture arrives soon.

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#1463523 - 10/05/2018 15:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 63
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Front has just passed through Robertson and is now approaching Wollongong. Robertson has dropped 7’c in the last 30 mins and is now around 9’c

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#1463525 - 10/05/2018 16:08 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The change seems to be knocking about 6 degrees off temperatures as it passes through. It's reached Bellambi, it seems to be passing through Camden and Campbelltown about now.

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#1463526 - 10/05/2018 16:13 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Steve777
The change seems to be knocking about 6 degrees off temperatures as it passes through. It's reached Bellambi, it seems to be passing through Camden and Campbelltown about now.


Yep.

The APP temp at Albion Park went from 15.6 at 3.00 pm to 5.7 at 4.00 pm, with an increase in humidity and a swing of winds from westerly to WSW'erly.

Sat pics and radar look very juicy for the Alps.


Edited by Homer (10/05/2018 16:15)

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#1463527 - 10/05/2018 16:24 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Anyone going up to Katoomba tonight haha?


Wind has increased significantly here in the last hour. Gustin to 40kmhr in exposed parts already.
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#1463529 - 10/05/2018 16:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Arrived here; 6c drop almost instantaneously, winds now getting up to 60/70km/h gusts. Few spits of rain too and a few snow/hail shafts off the back of those cu off the coast.

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#1463530 - 10/05/2018 16:40 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 91
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Ayyyy, it's certainly arrived. This is only the start, however... grin smile
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#1463531 - 10/05/2018 16:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Antarctic Whaler]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Antarctic Whaler
Ayyyy, it's certainly arrived. This is only the start, however... grin smile


Temperature up your way is?

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#1463532 - 10/05/2018 17:10 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
7C drop in 10 mins.

Brought my kestrel
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#1463533 - 10/05/2018 17:11 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The wind's picking up here now and it's turned cool and smokey outside.

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#1463535 - 10/05/2018 17:13 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And yet the real cold air hasn’t even arrived as yet. God I hope it turns on a show.

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#1463536 - 10/05/2018 17:31 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
7C drop in 10 mins.

Brought my kestrel


And the colder air is still on the way.

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#1463538 - 10/05/2018 17:57 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
EXTREMELY optimistic but I'm hoping for a snowfall in the Southern Highlands tonight grin
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#1463539 - 10/05/2018 18:01 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 460
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
EXTREMELY optimistic but I'm hoping for a snowfall in the Southern Highlands tonight grin


The coldness will be there for early Friday morning. Just gotta pray for the moisture. Especially since its in the rain shadow of areas such as crookwell.

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#1463540 - 10/05/2018 18:02 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1303
Loc: toowoomba
Apparently snowing in Katoomba

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#1463541 - 10/05/2018 18:06 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: petethemoskeet]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 460
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Apparently snowing in Katoomba
Source? Mount boyce is at 5.4c currently.

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#1463542 - 10/05/2018 18:09 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: petethemoskeet]
aslaws Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/05/2002
Posts: 1792
Loc: Narrow Neck Rd, Katoomba 1020m...
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Apparently snowing in Katoomba


Nah 5.3/1.4 currently - maybe later - moisture the issue here (as always)

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#1463543 - 10/05/2018 18:17 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 91
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Antarctic Whaler
Ayyyy, it's certainly arrived. This is only the start, however... grin smile


Temperature up your way is?

–0.4° C with a –9.1° C wind-chill.

Vulcan State Forest, Black Springs, NSW; 1,228 m AMSL; 33° 51' 38.67" S.

Sorry for the long response...was out admiring the weather and posting on another weather forum wink
_________________________
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#1463544 - 10/05/2018 18:17 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
SWW out
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#1463545 - 10/05/2018 18:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: aslaws]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: aslaws
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Apparently snowing in Katoomba


Nah 5.3/1.4 currently - maybe later - moisture the issue here (as always)


Yes, no chance......yet.
There was a post on ski.com by a former contributor to this site showing a video of it snowing at the Skyway at Katoomba.
The video already had over 40000 views which raised my suspicion.
When I saw the current obs, I knew it was a fake claim.
Why would someone post that?

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#1463546 - 10/05/2018 18:26 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
-0.4 seems a bit cold to me, but I suppose it may be possible. I would've guessed it to be about 2 degrees there. Got any snow yet? I saw a report of light snow at Shooters Hill about 4pm.


Edited by Wave Rider (10/05/2018 18:28)
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#1463547 - 10/05/2018 18:34 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 91
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
-0.4 seems a bit cold to me, but I suppose it may be possible. I would've guessed it to be about 2 degrees there. Got any snow yet? I saw a report of light snow at Shooters Hill about 4pm.


Why not? Orange is already at 3.1° C, about 300 m lower than here (although my Kestrel Ag just flactuated upwards to 0.1° C as of now, as usual). No snowfall yet, however; at least not at this elevation. Perhaps in another hour or two it might start.
_________________________
“Below 40 degrees South, there is no law; below 50 degrees South, there is no rescue; below 60 degrees South, there is no hope; below 70 degrees South, there is no God.”

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#1463548 - 10/05/2018 18:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Not doubting you but it is colder than I was expecting, which is a good thing for snow later.

Yeah Sidney, moisture will likely be a problem here.


Edited by Wave Rider (10/05/2018 18:37)
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#1463549 - 10/05/2018 18:39 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
-0.4 seems a bit cold to me, but I suppose it may be possible. I would've guessed it to be about 2 degrees there. Got any snow yet? I saw a report of light snow at Shooters Hill about 4pm.


Yes, seems a bit low to me as well.....maybe, but maybe not. Cabramurra is only -0.8 atm at almost 1500 asl. Maybe it's that 532 pool of cold air that was forecast to head up as a cut-off.
Orange is currently 3.0 deg's at 950 asl, so AW's -0.4 could be right at 1300 mtrs asl.


Edited by Homer (10/05/2018 18:39)

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#1463551 - 10/05/2018 18:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1303
Loc: toowoomba
Yer I got caught at the time but after checking the radar it was fake

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#1463552 - 10/05/2018 18:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: petethemoskeet]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
Yer I got caught at the time but after checking the radar it was fake


Yep.
Blamed facebook. lol.

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#1463553 - 10/05/2018 18:54 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
SWW out


Funny you should mention that.
I was speaking to my sister earlier this afternoon who works for a major energy supplier in Sydney. She said they had been put on "high alert" for tomorrow, and she may be asked to work late into the night tomorrow due to the predicted high winds and possible outages. She was told they were expecting problems, with winds way higher than the BOM's forecast of 35 km/h in this afternoons forecast.
In the SWW, the Metro is not mentioned.
My theory is the BOM are waiting until after tonight's tabloid news bulletins to issue for the Metro. We all know how silly the media can go with warnings like this and cause unnecessary worry and panic.
I wouldn't be surprised if the BOM update to include the metro later tonight or tomorrow.

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#1463554 - 10/05/2018 19:03 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
I was incredibly surprised about the BOMs forecast dropping the stronger winds.

Almost just as surprised the Metro was not in the SWW as well!

Alot of models tonight bring the system far north enough for damaging winds late tomorrow, so no surprises about what your family member said mate.
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#1463555 - 10/05/2018 19:04 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Looking at it, coastal regions may see 90-100kmhr gusts depending on the orientation of the wind flow.
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#1463556 - 10/05/2018 19:04 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Max744 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/11/2002
Posts: 1590
Loc: Cooks Gap NSW
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
SWW out


Funny you should mention that.
I was speaking to my sister earlier this afternoon who works for a major energy supplier in Sydney. She said they had been put on "high alert" for tomorrow, and she may be asked to work late into the night tomorrow due to the predicted high winds and possible outages. She was told they were expecting problems, with winds way higher than the BOM's forecast of 35 km/h in this afternoons forecast.
In the SWW, the Metro is not mentioned.
My theory is the BOM are waiting until after tonight's tabloid news bulletins to issue for the Metro. We all know how silly the media can go with warnings like this and cause unnecessary worry and panic.
I wouldn't be surprised if the BOM update to include the metro later tonight or tomorrow.


Don't I know how stupid the media get with these sort of events! You should've tried living in Darwin, we absolutely dreaded having a Cyclone Watch issued! Hahahahaha

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#1463557 - 10/05/2018 19:04 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
I was incredibly surprised about the BOMs forecast dropping the stronger winds.

Almost just as surprised the Metro was not in the SWW as well!

Alot of models tonight bring the system far north enough for damaging winds late tomorrow, so no surprises about what your family member said mate.


I just found it curious that the energy company were on to it but the BOM weren't.

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#1463558 - 10/05/2018 19:08 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Typical MO of the BoM sad to say.

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#1463559 - 10/05/2018 19:08 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Max744]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Max744
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
SWW out


Funny you should mention that.
I was speaking to my sister earlier this afternoon who works for a major energy supplier in Sydney. She said they had been put on "high alert" for tomorrow, and she may be asked to work late into the night tomorrow due to the predicted high winds and possible outages. She was told they were expecting problems, with winds way higher than the BOM's forecast of 35 km/h in this afternoons forecast.
In the SWW, the Metro is not mentioned.
My theory is the BOM are waiting until after tonight's tabloid news bulletins to issue for the Metro. We all know how silly the media can go with warnings like this and cause unnecessary worry and panic.
I wouldn't be surprised if the BOM update to include the metro later tonight or tomorrow.


Don't I know how stupid the media get with these sort of events! You should've tried living in Darwin, we absolutely dreaded having a Cyclone Watch issued! Hahahahaha


Can you just imagine Channel 9 and 7 tonight and how crazy they would go with a warning of 80-90 km/h winds in a warning? I can see the words "cyclonic" and "mini tornadoes" being used.
It's just "my" theory anyway, and I base that on what my sister told me they have been warned about.

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#1463560 - 10/05/2018 19:14 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Anyway.......

I love the imbedded troughs circulating around the developing low for the next two days. Should keep the system "lively".

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

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#1463561 - 10/05/2018 19:14 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Its something the BOM would do.

Trust me....in QLD anyway.
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#1463563 - 10/05/2018 19:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Interestingly the winds are far more savage along the coast (40knot gusts) yet Albion Park mid teens. Temps plummeting though, only 13c now and dropping like Labor House of Rep’s 😳😳😳

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#1463564 - 10/05/2018 19:22 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
I don't know what all the fuss is about? still a balmy 21c at near 1930hrs. wink
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#1463565 - 10/05/2018 19:22 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Dawgggg]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Dawgggg
Its something the BOM would do.

Trust me....in QLD anyway.


I have no doubt.

Anyway, it was 24.2 deg's when I got home at 3.30 pm.
It's now a very pleasant 14.7 deg's outside.
I opened all the windows and doors when I got home and let all the warm air in.
I closed them just before I saw the change was about to hit on the Doppler wind.
House is still 21.2. No need for a heater tonight but maybe I'll need to light the fire tomorrow.
smile


Edited by Homer (10/05/2018 19:25)

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#1463571 - 10/05/2018 19:52 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
After a cool start to the morning thanks to some thick stubborn high cloud it warmed up nicely in the afternoon with brilliant clear skies. But as the sun was starting to go down the sky got a little interesting with some pre-frontal activity. This pic looking towards Nelson Bay, no CGs were spotted but there was plenty of crawlers.
_MG_8219 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
A nice sunset to end the day.
_MG_8270 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

But my main focus was still on that developing cell, once offshore I knew it wouldn't be long before it would produce a bolt or two.
_MG_8360 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

I wanted to stay longer, but with a roast in the oven and beers getting warm in the car, I had to leave.
This cell was fairly racing out to sea too!!
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#1463572 - 10/05/2018 19:56 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 460
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Any reports from crookwell? Radar says moisture has arrived around that way. Theoretically should be snowing.

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#1463576 - 10/05/2018 20:03 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
1.4 deg's in Orange atm. smile

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#1463581 - 10/05/2018 20:30 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
I really like that 2nd photo Eddy. Yep Sidney I reckon Crookwell will get some snowy precip. Goulburn only 5.4 so should be about 3 there and 2°C at the highest parts in the area.
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#1463583 - 10/05/2018 20:37 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2015
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
Smell of fan heater being turned on for first time in many months.

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#1463584 - 10/05/2018 20:42 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Originally Posted By: Homer
1.4 deg's in Orange atm. smile


I think that could have been a bit of calm cooling rather than the true temp. 8pm was down to 1.1 but back up to 2.2 with slightly stronger wind now. Edit 8:40 up to 3.2. Not much difference but just bringing this up because these slight differences mean a lot when talking about marginal snow conditions.


Edited by Wave Rider (10/05/2018 20:44)
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#1463585 - 10/05/2018 20:49 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
The next lot of colder air entering far western edge of radar now - this will have snow for higher peaks for sure. Hopefully it’ll push up some action for the coast overnight.

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#1463586 - 10/05/2018 21:02 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Canberra at 4.2°C with rain is pretty impressive. One would expect there to be some snow falling in the hills east of Canberra around 800m.


Edited by Wave Rider (10/05/2018 21:02)
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#1463587 - 10/05/2018 21:05 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
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I was about to mention that WR, one would imagine the hills around the capital would be seeing something?

Finally its getting breezy here. Plenty of lightning way out to sea.
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#1463588 - 10/05/2018 21:26 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Would be snowing in Crookwell now surely.

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#1463589 - 10/05/2018 21:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Originally Posted By: Homer
1.4 deg's in Orange atm. smile


I think that could have been a bit of calm cooling rather than the true temp. 8pm was down to 1.1 but back up to 2.2 with slightly stronger wind now. Edit 8:40 up to 3.2. Not much difference but just bringing this up because these slight differences mean a lot when talking about marginal snow conditions.


Yep. Agree.
Just thought it was worth noting how cold temps are atm.

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#1463590 - 10/05/2018 21:30 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Would be snowing in Crookwell now surely.


It must be getting close to it one would think.

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#1463591 - 10/05/2018 21:31 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Would be snowing in Crookwell now surely.


It must be getting close to it one would think.


4c in Goulburn, have to be ~2 or lower there. Hope they get a good dump.

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#1463592 - 10/05/2018 21:41 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
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Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Would be snowing in Crookwell now surely.


It must be getting close to it one would think.


4c in Goulburn, have to be ~2 or lower there. Hope they get a good dump.


Taralga next in line, then, all the high areas along the Goulburn - Bathurst road.

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#1463593 - 10/05/2018 21:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Homer]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Kino
Would be snowing in Crookwell now surely.


It must be getting close to it one would think.


4c in Goulburn, have to be ~2 or lower there. Hope they get a good dump.


Taralga next in line, then, all the high areas along the Goulburn - Bathurst road.


Then hopefully Bowral! grin
Not that it will happen but I can always live in hope.
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#1463595 - 10/05/2018 22:00 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Nice pictures Eddy.

-------

Crookwell - funny name, sort of contradictory. At 980 metres it would be about 2 degrees cooler than Goulburn Airport (640), about 60km SE. That would be 2 degrees. Marginal for snow, but it might get colder.

There appears to be very little precipitation outside Alpine areas at this stage.

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#1463596 - 10/05/2018 22:02 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Given that the humidity is quite low though, I would say 2 degrees would certainly be producing snow. If it was 100% say, the temp would have to be very close to zero for snow.
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#1463597 - 10/05/2018 22:10 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Posts: 6926
Snow probability calculator:
http://www.sciencebits.com/SnowProbCalc?calc=yes

Btw it's actually up to 90% now at Goulburn, whoops. I was concentrated on the obs for Moss Vale, so apologies.


Edited by Wave Rider (10/05/2018 22:13)
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#1463598 - 10/05/2018 22:12 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Nice pictures Eddy.

-------

Crookwell - funny name, sort of contradictory. At 980 metres it would be about 2 degrees cooler than Goulburn Airport (640), about 60km SE. That would be 2 degrees. Marginal for snow, but it might get colder.

There appears to be very little precipitation outside Alpine areas at this stage.


In this type of setup it could easily be 3 or 4c cooler.

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#1463602 - 10/05/2018 22:42 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
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Registered: 26/03/2018
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Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
Aye, it is indeed snowing in Binda, Crookwell & Grabben Gullen...quite heavily, too! Fella of mine confirmed this over the phone wink Snow is also falling to Pejar Dam—only 784 m AMSL about the lake surface.

I'd wager that Trunkey Creek, Triangle Flat & Hobbys Yards (970-1,040 m AMSL) in Blayney Shire would receive some snowfall down the line, with Mount Macquarie (1,210 m AMSL) perhaps bound to be bombarded with it.

Speaking of snow, guess what I'm receiving... grin smile
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#1463605 - 10/05/2018 22:48 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
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Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
What a wonderful synoptic chart. Although personal just looks like a lot of clothes lines that I expect I will be picking back up, not much else.

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#1463606 - 10/05/2018 22:48 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Thought it was - that radar profile looked suss.....Blue Mountains may see some flurries in the next 2 hours as well (currently 2c there).

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#1463612 - 10/05/2018 23:09 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Jimi Offline
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Registered: 15/03/2004
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Loc: Cammeray
Stat lovers should check out the Tassie forum. Hobart has had more rain in just the last hour than it’s old May daily record. It’s now at about double the old record with more coming.

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#1463614 - 10/05/2018 23:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
Posts: 23688
Loc: Townsville
Surely the Blue Mountains will see a flurry with this line of rain.
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#1463617 - 10/05/2018 23:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
isaY Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 100
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Snow falling at Orange airport about an hour ago. No sign of it in town yet. Just light rain.

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#1463619 - 10/05/2018 23:41 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
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Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
No snow in katoomba but a few pellets of ice in a shower that just passed

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#1463623 - 11/05/2018 00:16 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
isaY Offline
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Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 100
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Raining heavier now. Ice/rain combo on the car windscreen.

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#1463625 - 11/05/2018 01:02 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
isaY Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 100
Loc: ORANGE NSW 900m asl
Snow falling in Orange, just flurries.

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#1463637 - 11/05/2018 06:27 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1162
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Cold enough, but I don't think it will get as cold as the minimum forecast.
Normally the coldest minimums are about a day or 2 after the cold front passes through.
The event will probably be short-lived here in the Hunter though.

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#1463638 - 11/05/2018 06:32 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1162
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Interesting phenomenon on the other side of the continent, Perth going for 2 days of 30C in a row.
It will probably even break Sydney's May record.
This is usual as high's dominate in the first half of autumn, and the seasonal lag over there, so autumn record highs are significantly higher than here. (conversely spring record maximums are equally less than the east coast)

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#1463639 - 11/05/2018 06:53 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
davidm Offline
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Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Morning guys, long time no see!

Light dusting of snow here in Orange, woke up a couple of times in the night to see flakes coming down, but yeah, looks like just not enough of them landed. Just touching 1c now, not sure whether we'll get any more before it starts warming too much.



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#1463640 - 11/05/2018 07:21 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Westerly Wind Offline
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Registered: 18/02/2012
Posts: 164
Loc: Orange NSW (885m asl)
Hi davem and morning all....yes similar "depth"in my part of town too. Those flurries of light snow still coming and going. One or two larger flakes falling looking out the window as type this.

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#1463641 - 11/05/2018 07:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Westerly Wind Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 18/02/2012
Posts: 164
Loc: Orange NSW (885m asl)
The snow is now falling quite heavily in my part of Orange and settling lightly again for now.


Edited by Westerly Wind (11/05/2018 07:36)

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#1463644 - 11/05/2018 08:00 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 26/03/2018
Posts: 91
Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,277 m AMS...
BOM is now forecasting snowfall above 700 m for the Tablelands, and has already fallen at Crooked Corner, Bigga, Peelwood, Tuena & Woodstock-Wyangala in the Upper Lachlan Shire; down to about 665 m AMSL.

Splendid May, this one! cheers
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#1463646 - 11/05/2018 08:36 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Satpic / radar shows a surge of southerlies to the south of Canberra heading north. Looks to be a slab of colder air with it - should bring flurries to Southern Central Highlands if it makes it further north.

Meanwhile boring dry cold day for the coast. Hobart copping our ECL weather, with 121mm in the City and 222mm odd in the hills.

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#1463647 - 11/05/2018 08:57 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Juicy

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#1463649 - 11/05/2018 09:09 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Cold, sunny, dry and breezy here.

Snow cams show that the ski resorts have had good falls. It's also good to see reports of snow on the Central and Southern tablelands. These seem to have been pretty much restricted to West of the Divide.

After today, it looks like there'll be no weather for our part of the world apart from a few coastal showers for the foreseeable future.

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#1463653 - 11/05/2018 09:30 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Apparently snowing on the highway between Bathurst and Blayney, according to the radio.

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#1463654 - 11/05/2018 09:31 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 460
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Here we go again "polar vortex" phrase being thrown around on facebook and other media.

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#1463655 - 11/05/2018 09:33 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
snowforus Offline
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Registered: 05/07/2012
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Loc: Lithgow 945m a.s.l. (Central T...
We've had a few brief flurries here this morning. It's not all over yet!
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#1463656 - 11/05/2018 09:47 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Sidney]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Here we go again "polar vortex" phrase being thrown around on facebook and other media.


Well it actually *is/was* a polar vortex? I don't understand the ridiculousness of getting caught up in using the correct term, regardless of how the media hype it up.

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#1463657 - 11/05/2018 10:12 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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Loc: Townsville
Apparantly it made the Super Low criteria hahahaahahahahaha
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#1463658 - 11/05/2018 10:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Dawgggg Offline
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Registered: 25/03/2007
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Loc: Townsville
13C and 40kmhr winds at 10am.

Heaven.
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#1463661 - 11/05/2018 10:30 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
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Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 460
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Oh sorry thought these events were generally called cut off lows. Honestly never seen polar vortex or antartic vortex being used until 3 odd years ago and now i see it everywhere.

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#1463662 - 11/05/2018 10:30 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Maybe it's a 'mini Polar Vortex'.

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#1463663 - 11/05/2018 10:50 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 405
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Negative Dew Points across the enitre basin except for Richmond and Penrith. That's what you call dry coldfront.

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#1463664 - 11/05/2018 11:00 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Sidney Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 20/12/2013
Posts: 460
Loc: Macquarie fields ( South west ...
Cold fronts are usually dry east of the divide anyway due to foehn winds. Towns west of the divide are cooler and more humid.

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#1463665 - 11/05/2018 11:22 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Sidney]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Sidney
Oh sorry thought these events were generally called cut off lows. Honestly never seen polar vortex or antartic vortex being used until 3 odd years ago and now i see it everywhere.


I think that's because our BoM is 60 years behind the rest of the world.

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#1463678 - 11/05/2018 14:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
davidm Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 08/08/2011
Posts: 1555
Loc: Orange, NSW
Heavy showers coming through now - these would be some good snow on higher ground.

13mm since midnight now
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#1463679 - 11/05/2018 15:21 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3165
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Maybe it's a 'mini Polar Vortex'.


lol..Mini would explain why Bega, Moruya and Montague island have done 18C or better today.

I expected perhaps a 17C here today, but was wrong.
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#1463680 - 11/05/2018 15:23 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
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Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 63
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
What type of system would be required for snow to fall on the eastern peaks of the ranges, e.g Robertson, Bowral, Blackheath v the current system which brings snow to Orange and Oberon areas?

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#1463681 - 11/05/2018 15:25 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Northwesterly]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Northwesterly
What type of system would be required for snow to fall on the eastern peaks of the ranges, e.g Robertson, Bowral, Blackheath v the current system which brings snow to Orange and Oberon areas?


ECL's combined with an upper cold pool usually provide the best falls.

The higher ground to the west of the BM's and Southern Highlands sucks a lot of the moisture out of more westerly systems.

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#1463682 - 11/05/2018 15:35 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Yep, ECL’s or Cutoffs that form on the east coast instead of to the south or over land.

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#1463683 - 11/05/2018 15:50 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Northwesterly Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 17/01/2015
Posts: 63
Loc: Stanhope Gardens
Thanks for the explanation, hopefully we get a couple of these this winter!!
Enjoying the cold weather. I maxed out today on my PWS at 15.9c and so far my strongest wind gust has been 38km from the WNW, this may change if we get the gale force winds tonight that the media are talking about. smile


Edited by Northwesterly (11/05/2018 15:51)

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#1463685 - 11/05/2018 16:03 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Moisture seems to have big problems crossing the Divide. Rain from ECLs is generally confined into the coast and Eastern side of the ranges, while cold fronts from the SW dump most of their moisture on the Western side.

The Blue Mountains can do well in either type of system, depending upon how much moisture is available. In this system, most of the moisture was well away to the South. The little that did reach the Central Tablelands couldn't get across.

----

Sydney OH has had its coldest maximum since August 28 unless it warms up before 9:00 tomorrow. It might warm up before then with a shift in wind direction to the S-SE.

-----

Re Bega, it seems to be warm in a Westerly. We noticed that in last month's heatwaves with hot Westerlies. I think it gets a strong Foehn effect over the Snowy Mountains.

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#1463686 - 11/05/2018 16:04 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Mt Boyce has reached just 4.2 today and 7.2 at Bathurst. Those are some extraordinary maximums for May.

Also Bega has an added effect of being north of the cold pool this arvo so 850mb temps are also warmer pver that area than areas around Sydney.


Edited by Wave Rider (11/05/2018 16:11)
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#1463688 - 11/05/2018 17:02 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Wave Rider
Mt Boyce has reached just 4.2 today and 7.2 at Bathurst. Those are some extraordinary maximums for May.

Also Bega has an added effect of being north of the cold pool this arvo so 850mb temps are also warmer pver that area than areas around Sydney.


Yep, exactly right mate. The models days out were showing the cut off cold pools heading up through central NSW and then fading out. It's exactly what has happened.
Definitely some nice low max's today in some areas which reinforces that.
The low will now start sucking in air from the warmer Tasman which will warm up temps. There'll still be some snow lingering however.

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#1463698 - 11/05/2018 19:58 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 665
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.

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#1463700 - 11/05/2018 20:26 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.

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#1463701 - 11/05/2018 20:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 665
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.
gfs 16 day has it not moving at all. Wtf

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#1463702 - 11/05/2018 20:45 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 665
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Could an extended widespread frost be on the cards?

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#1463705 - 11/05/2018 21:09 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.


I’ll believe it when it happens. Models have been down right unless lately so I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on anything outside of 5 days.

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#1463706 - 11/05/2018 21:11 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And here comes the southerly part of the low with a large slab of cold drizzle approaching from the south, currently around Ulladulla.

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#1463710 - 11/05/2018 21:55 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 665
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.


I’ll believe it when it happens. Models have been down right unless lately so I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on anything outside of 5 days.

It starts in less than 5 days.

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#1463711 - 11/05/2018 21:58 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Steve777]
Jimi Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 15/03/2004
Posts: 947
Loc: Cammeray
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Sydney OH has had its coldest maximum since August 28 unless it warms up before 9:00 tomorrow. It might warm up before then with a shift in wind direction to the S-SE.


Today was colder than all but eight days in 2017.

31/05/17
27/06/17
28/06/17
1/7/17
3/7/17
12/7/17
20/8/17
27/8/17

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#1463713 - 11/05/2018 22:28 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
And the 7.2°C at Bathurst (assuming it does not rise before 9am) was in fact colder than any day last year. More than anything, it shows how mild last winter was.

Also noticed that Parkes and Cowra failed to reach 10 degrees today.



Edited by Wave Rider (11/05/2018 22:34)
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#1463714 - 11/05/2018 22:29 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Steve777
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
Damn that high pressure for next week is bigger than Russia.


And the models show it hanging around indefinitely. Apart from coastal showers no weather for a fortnight.


I’ll believe it when it happens. Models have been down right unless lately so I wouldn’t be hanging my hat on anything outside of 5 days.


I reckon the models are believable when there is such a static pattern forecasted. If the models predict a huge high for 8 days, that will generally be the outcome.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1463717 - 12/05/2018 04:31 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
There's a big blob of rain moving Northwards up the coast, just reaching Sydney. It's also warmed up, although winds are still Westerly. Falls on the South Coast don't look that big, mostly under 5 mm. The heaviest rain is out to sea.

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#1463718 - 12/05/2018 06:38 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Some nasty gusts in exposed areas of the South Coast. Montague Island gusts to 104km/h and 113 at Green Cape
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#1463721 - 12/05/2018 07:52 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3816
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Noting that some places have warmed quite significantly on the wraparound (e.g. Canberra has been to 11.6 this morning after peaking at 9.0 during the day yesterday).

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#1463723 - 12/05/2018 08:19 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Yeah I did notice that this morning, Bathurst now is up to 9°C also.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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#1463724 - 12/05/2018 08:34 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
eauetsoleil Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 03/01/2016
Posts: 244
Loc: Bexley North
Interesting that the swell at Cronulla is only reported as 1ft at the moment. Live webcam of Wanda beach backs this up.
Water temp a toasty 20C

From windy.com the swell will pick up very fast at some point some where near the coast. Just how much on the metro beaches looks very uncertain.
Wind just started howling outside at Bexley North.


Edited by eauetsoleil (12/05/2018 08:37)

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#1463726 - 12/05/2018 09:17 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Big slab of moderate to heavy rain about to hit the Illawarra (if it makes it over Saddleback).

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#1463727 - 12/05/2018 09:33 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/07/2006
Posts: 2822
Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
Wind starting ramp up here in Lane Cove, only 2.4mm so far, really hope we get some decent showers today/tomorrow before more dry...

Edit: another big gust just moved through!!
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#1463730 - 12/05/2018 09:44 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: eauetsoleil]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Originally Posted By: eauetsoleil
...Water temp a toag sty 20C

Sea temps off Sydney have cooled in the last week or so, now 19.35 according to MHL. Before that, they had been hovering around 21-22 for a while. The May average is about 20.7. MHL Sydney. There is still warm water way out to sea, pushed away from the coast by a cool ('evil'?) eddy.

-----

It's a cool, overcast morning.Eastern Sydney picked up 3 - 5 mm from those showers before dawn, with little or nothing in the West. It hasn't rained enough to register at OH since 5:30AM. There are showers about, right on the coast and out to sea, shrivelling as they move North.

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#1463732 - 12/05/2018 10:47 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5035
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Certainly warmer in the water than out atm.

Much warmer here today compared to yesterday, yesterdays max was 15.8c, currently 19.0 today.
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MTD - 44.4mm
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#1463737 - 12/05/2018 13:00 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Blair Trewin Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2001
Posts: 3816
Loc: Melbourne, Australia
Went through Tumbarumba and Batlow this morning. Still a bit of snow on the ground in the Laurel Hill area above 950-1000m, but with the temperature at +5 it clearly wasn't going to be around for much longer.

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#1463741 - 12/05/2018 17:18 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Cheers Blair - interesting.

8-20 mm's now forecast for tomorrow. Hope it comes off - although it could ruin a few Mother's Day BBQ's if it does.

Have had some moderate showers today, in between some light intermittent rain. 16 deg max, and currently 14.3.
It was windy most of the day, and I didn't see very much sun at all. Just a few minutes here and there. Certainly felt very cool in the breeze, especially sitting there watching the kids soccer and netball. I loved it though. Bring on winter.

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#1463742 - 12/05/2018 17:21 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2454
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Same here Homer though we were sheltered from most of the decent rain thanks to Saddleback range. Shows we need a more s/sse/se flow for decent southerly rain events.

Longer term looks colder throughout for the coast - both mins and max below average right across the outlook.

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#1463743 - 12/05/2018 17:27 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
DerekHV Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1162
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
20C locally today, though that must have been a brief spike, or I blinked and missed it.
Certainly not complaining, nights are cool and the heater is going. Good sleeping weather that is for sure.

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#1463746 - 12/05/2018 18:10 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5924
Loc: Dural
Fire has been on here last 2 nights and looks like getting a work out this week with some of the mins forecast. Absolutely beautiful.
Another nice rain band heading up from the south atm.

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#1463747 - 12/05/2018 18:13 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Wave Rider]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4318
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
I see it got to 20-21 in Sydney's outer West, there may have been more sun there. Just one or two sunny breaks here, mostly overcast but I only saw a few sprinkles of rain. Chatswood received 1mm since 9:00 to add to its overnight total of 3 mm. Sydney OH had its second sub 17 max.

Autumn has arrived. 35 degree temperatures of just a month ago are now distant memories. The water dragons were out in force the other day, but they will soon go into hibernation (strictly, brumation) for the Winter.

The models this morning were hinting at a weak front on Wednesday and maybe something stronger around the 21st. The latest GFS is now back to the Russia-sized high with little to interrupt it. Forecast rain totals tomorrow look promising for the coast. The radar's filling up, although there's nothing nearby at the moment.

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#1463749 - 12/05/2018 18:16 Re: NSW Cold change and low with rain and snow- 11th & 12th May 2018 [Re: Kino]
Wave Rider Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 6926
Originally Posted By: Kino
Same here Homer though we were sheltered from most of the decent rain thanks to Saddleback range. Shows we need a more s/sse/se flow for decent southerly rain events.

Longer term looks colder throughout for the coast - both mins and max below average right across the outlook.


Yeah Saddleback makes quite a difference. When I was coming back from the Southern Highlands, it was raining all through there to the top of Mac Pass where the rain surprisingly stopped, and looking down to Wollongong, the land was sunlit. When I got down here it was only partly cloudy.
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The longer you wait for storms, the more you appreciate them.

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