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#1463247 - 06/05/2018 18:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5881
Loc: Dural
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: Homer
Originally Posted By: Steve777
MetEye shows snow on the Central Tablelands in what looks to be areas above about 1,100 metres.


MetEye might be showing that, but it's not in any of the official BOM forecasts yet as of this afternoon.


They’d be waiting til Tues surely before they lock in any forecast that’s a bit extraordinary like snow in May.


Absolutely they would be and that was my point.
Too far away to be locking too much in from the models. BOM are very conservative 5 days out when it comes to big systems and I don't blame them. They really get on to it generally 2-3 days out.

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#1463250 - 06/05/2018 18:43 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
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Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
On a landline weekly forecast they aren't sure where the Low will form, also the latest EC update has the low sitting out in the Tasman on the South-Coast. Although the downside literally no precipitation makes it east of the divide.

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#1463256 - 06/05/2018 19:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2306
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Some of the models have the 534 line well into NSW - that’s super cold. If that can hook up with some moisture, look out.

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#1463263 - 06/05/2018 20:25 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Access is now going for an event where precipitation is basically restricted to the coast and Alps. Other models have more widespread rain.

They all now seem to agree that the low will form in or near Bass Strait and move quickly into the Central Tasman. A 'hot' low or trough forming Northwards and dragging in moist warm air from the NE no longer seems to be on the cards (or in the tea leaves / goats' entrails). Looks cold enough, with the blue line up near the Qld border. While the amount of precipitation is still in doubt, it no longer looks like any big deal.


Edited by Steve777 (06/05/2018 20:26)

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#1463268 - 06/05/2018 21:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Antarctic Whaler Offline
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Loc: Black Springs NSW; 1,266 m AMS...
After seeing the extent of that 534-540 line, I just can't bloody wait to see what can fall up here at Black Springs smile grin
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#1463269 - 06/05/2018 21:10 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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If the 500mb cold pool can stay intact, then there will be moisture.

Before then looks like it will be quite a warm day on Thursday, will likely get reach about 29C with no sea breeze predicted.

I'm not quite game enough to make a thread yet as models are still changing a fair bit. Latest GFS doesn't have much moisture and the 850mb pool becomes fragmented and warms pretty quickly on Saturday. Looking more like a classic westerly change on Friday with a bit of moisture on the western side of the ranges and no rain and probably sunny weather for the coast. Although looking at Saturday there could be some coastal showers and southerly winds


Edited by Wave Rider (06/05/2018 21:17)
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#1463271 - 06/05/2018 21:49 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
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Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
I'm only after the rain, so Im becoming more interested in whats behind this low. GFS spits another cold pool over the inland and once again showing onshore feed.

I couldnt really give a stuff about dry westerly winds and snow...unless its going to snow here, which is very unlikely.
It gives me hope for even colder events in winter though when we might get a 1 in 50 year event.

It just looks like another Tasman energy depleting bomb with no great rain benefit other than an early season snow chase or two and perhaps a good start for the snowies.

I hope the SW slopes and riverina manage a good drop from this bomb at least, but lets got a proper cutoff please, or at least a loaded NW cloudband and give everyone (all of the state) some worthwhile precipitation. Like you say WR the models are still bouncing and if the cool pool can hang on there may be a bit more in it then the current runs....but dry sw winds just mean a continuation of drought around here and thats just [censored] for me and many others.

Maybe the combo of this system and the one behind it, will give everyone a drink in the next 2 weeks.....

Fortunately the signs are there for a dynamic cold season coming up, as we discussed a few months back, so going to take this event as positive and indicative of what is to come, rather than a random feature with a month of nothing behind it.

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#1463274 - 06/05/2018 22:21 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Jimi Offline
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Still plenty of energy in the oceans to use, even if this takes some away. I surfed in boardies this morning (in Sydney) for the first time in May in a long time.

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#1463276 - 06/05/2018 22:39 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Jimi]
ashestoashes Offline
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Registered: 22/10/2017
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Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Originally Posted By: Jimi
Still plenty of energy in the oceans to use, even if this takes some away. I surfed in boardies this morning (in Sydney) for the first time in May in a long time.

Specifically in East Coast NSW the SST anamolies are going to take a really long time to dissipate as long as the East Australian current keeps pumping in the warm coral sea water.

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#1463278 - 07/05/2018 08:27 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
All they seem to be doing atm is reinforcing highs/ridges.

Meanwhile the model downgrade has begun with only ACCESS interested now. frown


Edited by Kino (07/05/2018 08:37)

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#1463286 - 07/05/2018 10:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
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Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Here's the 15 day forecast from Weather.com for Sydney. I find that this is reasonably accurate for the first week, maybe tending a bit on the cool side.

I think that the forecast is for Sydney Airport.



It shows a spell of very warm weather for this time of year for the next four days, consistent with the forecast, followed by a spell of quite cool weather Friday to Sunday. After that, it reverts to average for the rest of the forecast period, but that's what it normally does. Like the second week of GFS, days 8-15 are probably just a curiosity.

The precipitation outlook looks pretty dismal, even during the cold spell, when rain probability per day peaks at only 50%. After that, the dry weather resumes.

For Katoomba for Saturday it shows 'rain' and a temperature range of 1 to 6. The forecast for Orange is similar to that for Katoomba, but with a mention of snow for Friday.


Edited by Steve777 (07/05/2018 10:58)
Edit Reason: clarify

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#1463291 - 07/05/2018 11:48 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: ashestoashes]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
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Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
Originally Posted By: Jimi
Still plenty of energy in the oceans to use, even if this takes some away. I surfed in boardies this morning (in Sydney) for the first time in May in a long time.

Specifically in East Coast NSW the SST anamolies are going to take a really long time to dissipate as long as the East Australian current keeps pumping in the warm coral sea water.


Im not so sure. I recon we will see some big temp changes out there after just this event. Nothing has been going our way for quite a while now, and neutering the SST off the coast is next on the list. Coral sea cooling back to average, little cold eddys showing up off NSW. I hope you are right and it holds on warm at least into June.

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#1463300 - 07/05/2018 13:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
CoastalStorm22 Offline
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Loc: Lane Cove, Sydney, NSW
So how savage can we expect these westerlies to be?
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#1463302 - 07/05/2018 13:13 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: CoastalStorm22]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
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Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
So how savage can we expect these westerlies to be?


Will really depend on where low forms and travels. Most models have the strongest winds around the outside of the low, unlike an ECL where they are usually around the LLCC.

Gringos - I'm wondering this - if the Tasman Sea finally gets to average or below, will that aide cold pools to slip north and not be degraded as quickly? Because as we saw in summer, warmer SST's did stuff all for any decent weather or rainfall.

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#1463317 - 07/05/2018 15:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2306
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And presto GFS has it again....with a massive pool of cold air. TWC WRF also has it, as does ACCESS-R.

However all it looks to be this stage is a massive dump over the snowies and bitter sw'erlies for the rest of us. That could easily change with the position of the low.

And this is well-written:

Originally Posted By: TWC Ben Domensino


What is a cut-off low and why do they matter?
Ben Domensino, Monday May 7, 2018 - 13:39 EST
There are early indications that severe weather could affect southeastern Australia at the end of this week.

A number of forecast models suggest that a pool of cold air currently located about 2,000km to the southwest of Australia will traverse the nation's southeast at the end of this week.

While it's still many miles away, this is certainly worth taking note of. Rogue pools of cold air like this can cause cut-off low pressure systems, which rarely pass over southern Australia without causing severe weather.

So, what is a cut-off low and why do they cause intense weather?

Throughout the year, a pool of cold air sits over Antarctica and the Southern Ocean, surrounded by a band of very strong westerly winds. This swirling mass of air, which is constantly rotating in a clockwise direction, is called the 'polar vortex' and its one of two in our planet's atmosphere.

Every now and then, a smaller pool of cold air at the edge of the polar vortex breaks away and heads north. This vagrant pool often causes a low pressure system to form about five to six kilometres above the ground, which is called a cut-off low.

When upper level cut-off lows move over Australia, the cold air they bring up from the Southern Ocean interacts with warmer air sitting over the continent and its surrounding oceans. This interaction triggers an outbreak of intense weather as the atmosphere tries to restore equilibrium.

While it's too early to know exactly where severe weather will occur, computer models are in good agreement that a cut-off low will pass over southeastern Australia between Thursday and Sunday.

At this stage, anyone living in South Australia, Victoria, Tasmania, NSW and the ACT should closely monitor the latest forecasts and severe weather warnings as the week unfolds.


Edited by Kino (07/05/2018 15:17)

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#1463373 - 08/05/2018 09:11 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Kino]
GringosRain Offline
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Registered: 19/06/2007
Posts: 1593
Loc: Quorrobolong NSW
Originally Posted By: Kino
Originally Posted By: CoastalStorm22
So how savage can we expect these westerlies to be?


Will really depend on where low forms and travels. Most models have the strongest winds around the outside of the low, unlike an ECL where they are usually around the LLCC.

Gringos - I'm wondering this - if the Tasman Sea finally gets to average or below, will that aide cold pools to slip north and not be degraded as quickly? Because as we saw in summer, warmer SST's did stuff all for any decent weather or rainfall.


Quite possibly Kino. One of the biggest issues seems to be the blocking high and also its shape. This is influenced by the LWT position Im guessing too, but what has kept these so stagnant for so long? Perhaps SST's . Maybe cooler water will encourage the centre of the high to sit more over Tasmania with a standard SE/E flow. If cold pools get pushed up then, the high is better positioned to utilise them and can still get a reasonable warm feed from the southern CS.

All these events just start off at 10 days with promise and then fail. Warm water has been consistent for a while now, so maybe we need to see that variable change to see other atmospheric changes.

A cold outbreak is a bit of fun, but it just needs to rain now, those yearly totals in SW Sydney area are stupid....we arent far behind up here, just a bit inland from the coast.

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#1463380 - 08/05/2018 10:56 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
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Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4263
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
It's been a cloudy morning, although the sun's coming out now for another 25-26 degree day.

It was a nice sunrise this morning:


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#1463381 - 08/05/2018 11:24 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: GringosRain]
Kino Offline
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Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2306
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Originally Posted By: GringosRain
Quite possibly Kino. One of the biggest issues seems to be the blocking high and also its shape. This is influenced by the LWT position Im guessing too, but what has kept these so stagnant for so long? Perhaps SST's . Maybe cooler water will encourage the centre of the high to sit more over Tasmania with a standard SE/E flow. If cold pools get pushed up then, the high is better positioned to utilise them and can still get a reasonable warm feed from the southern CS.

All these events just start off at 10 days with promise and then fail. Warm water has been consistent for a while now, so maybe we need to see that variable change to see other atmospheric changes.

A cold outbreak is a bit of fun, but it just needs to rain now, those yearly totals in SW Sydney area are stupid....we arent far behind up here, just a bit inland from the coast.


Nice analysis and speculation - and extrapolating on that; our patterns are west --> east; therefore anomalous warm SST's in the Tasman benefit NZ (as we saw) and not us (other than humid stable NE'erlies).

Now; if the Tasman has anomalous colder SST's - that would lead to more stable weather over NZ; thereby positioning the trough either side, surely? Which would mean it's sitting on or inland of the east coast. This allows the cold pools to slip up from Antartica and rip us a new one grin

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#1463473 - 09/05/2018 20:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 4990
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
What a cracking day it was, low to mid 20s, light winds.

Went for a drive looking for some colour in the trees, my favourite ones haven't really started to turn.
_MG_8078 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

Did manage to find some, but they were deep on someone's property or I was shooting into the sun.
_MG_8087 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr

Then well after sunset some nice colour out to the east.
_MG_8190 by Eddy Groot, on Flickr
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#1463760 - 13/05/2018 10:14 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
DerekHV Offline
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Registered: 12/02/2010
Posts: 1143
Loc: Aberglasslyn (Maitland) NSW
Looks like the event is over, but some low grade rut weather and 10-20C days, which is only very slightly below average for the 1st half of May here.
Wow, just on a side note, Perth got to 33C on the other side of the continent yesterday as well.
That is a severe thumping of May records on the east coast at the same latitude.
Very interesting how, with the extreme seasonal lag over there, the big differences between our August-Spring records and their Feb-Autumn records - which are almost equal and opposite hidings respectively. It is very rare there is any correlation with what happens over there, as the Highs drive down hot weather from the NE desert, often while we face a SSE flow.


Edited by DerekHV (13/05/2018 10:23)

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