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#1244783 - 27/02/2014 12:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
A question for you all ...

Craig Lapsley and others (referring to the prognosis concerning the Morwell mine fire) keep referring to "bad"/"severe" fire weather mid next week. I just can't see anything like that in the models. What do you think?

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#1244851 - 27/02/2014 19:10 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
My take is for a very warm day next Tue with NW'ly winds at a similar strength to that of this Tuesday which caused all sorts of ruckus in the mine and a near evacuation of Hazelwood Power Station. Would post a chart, but my PC is in meltdown. Expecting a cold Wed pm/Thursday next week.

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#1244861 - 27/02/2014 20:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 801
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, Petros; some warmth on Tuesday but I don't see much wind in it. Let's trust it stays that way though this past Tuesday did produce more wind than expected/forecast.

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#1244972 - 28/02/2014 12:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Yeah Monday & Tuesday look warm and dry but I'm not seeing the wind strength yet. Even the change Tuesday night looks fairly weak at the moment.

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#1245052 - 28/02/2014 19:26 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yeah, strongest winds next Tuesday will be NW'lies right on the change to SW - but overnight. At this stage.

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#1245475 - 03/03/2014 18:19 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: dlcat1]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Originally Posted By: dlcat1
Yeah Monday & Tuesday look warm and dry but I'm not seeing the wind strength yet. Even the change Tuesday night looks fairly weak at the moment.


Certainly looks to pan out that way. A warm day tomorrow, slow cooling Tuesday night ahead of a weak change (rain < 5mm) for Gippsland Wed morning.

A light N'W'ly now for tomorrow night, followed by a fairly benign change should only add a days delay to the final extinguishing of the Morwell Open Cut fire imo.

We are looking forward to our Autumn break (rainfall-wise) out this way, so with only < 5mm rain on offer with this change, I'll allow myself a little whinge about the fact that every drip of it looks to be falling on the Maffra Golf Club during the Wednesday mid-week comp! frown

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#1246885 - 08/03/2014 07:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
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Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6341
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
EC and ACC have a huge rain event (particularly S Central areas) around 16-17 March on the latest 12z run - be wonderful if it actually happened.
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#1252251 - 29/03/2014 21:36 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
crikey Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/02/2011
Posts: 2586
Loc: Tweed Heads
ACCESS G has a rain event for VIC around the 3rd April
A strong low arrives from the Bight and picks up some moisture from a n/west tropical infeed
Looks quite wet and potentially stormy for ALL of VIC on this forecast t+120hrs
A shame its moving fast. But looks a nice one or 2 day event

http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View
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#1260060 - 15/04/2014 19:26 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
First snow for Vic for 2014?????? - overnight April 25th (Friday week)......

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#1261168 - 27/04/2014 10:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Plagueis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 58
Loc: Melbourne VIC
Check out GFS for this Friday/Saturday grin

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#1261196 - 27/04/2014 16:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396
Yep I've been watching the setup later this week with lots of interest! Still on track for strong fronts to sweep across with strong winds and impressively cold air later in the week... although just a slight shift north or south of any low trying to cut off in the westerly flow might make the difference between the coldest of the air moving across VIC causing snow to low levels... or it tracking to the north and snow being restricted to the highest peaks.

Here's the current output from my snow script which shows the percentage of the forecast scenarios from the NCEP ensemble dropping snow to ground level within the next 8 days:

https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2902/14026467234_e41afabd85_o.png


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#1261224 - 27/04/2014 19:21 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ken Kato Offline
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Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5396

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#1262832 - 06/05/2014 19:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
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Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
A surf of the models shows nothing out of the norm in the 7 day outlook.

But GFS (AccG dosent agree) brings this possibility at day 8:

For comparison, AccG:

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#1262947 - 07/05/2014 19:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Dawoodman Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 14/03/2010
Posts: 1234
Loc: Thoopara; Prossie/ Bayswater
looks like a bit of wind and rain on the weekend.....looking interesting
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#1262954 - 07/05/2014 21:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
That's one HUGE cold front bursting upon Western Australia on radar and satellite... can't wait for it to be our turn - when it comes - for a similar winter storm (in size and/or intensity) to approach Victoria, spreading gales and squalls across the State, along heavy rains, storms, hail, and snow and sleet (low-level if there's sufficiently cold air being pulled in behind it). smile

A disappointment that this storm will weaken before it arrives this weekend, bringing little more than mild northerly/northwesterly winds, and somewhat showery weather... frown

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#1263026 - 08/05/2014 19:28 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Interesting little "knot" evident off NSW SE coast on GFS/AccG for early next week.....

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#1263043 - 09/05/2014 08:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
I've noticed the pressure gradient in the southern ocean has ramped up too. Wintry blasts just round the corner.

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#1263056 - 09/05/2014 11:03 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Distant Sun Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 23/04/2014
Posts: 40
Loc: Watsonia, Melbourne
Yes dlcat1 hopefully something brewing down there that will come up and blast away next week's stable autumn weather. Might be a bit of a front toward the end of the week.

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#1263105 - 09/05/2014 19:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This arvo's runs show nothing remarkable in the outlook now IMO - the vertically stacked front for next Wed has now been quashed by all models.

We might be in for a week with many bright sunny days smile

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#1263158 - 10/05/2014 18:43 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7365
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Two model runs on, we have GFS coughing up this (GFS alone mind you!):


We don't ignore these out this way.... Watch them like a hawk till further runs justify/move on to another scenario....

Anyhow, for balance, this is what EC reckons will be in place at that time:


As we all know, I'm a GFS fan, so this is a big litmus test for my faith! smile


Edited by Petros (10/05/2014 18:47)

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