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#1461043 - 05/04/2018 18:04 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1299
Loc: toowoomba
Petros steak and beer is always good but a bit of cooler weather would be nice

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#1461056 - 05/04/2018 20:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2568
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Well drink more beer as warm to hot return to 35c next Tuesday

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#1461057 - 05/04/2018 20:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Seira]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2568
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Originally Posted By: Seira
N.B.: I suggest doing the relevant research and investigating for oneself if one is interested enough... in external Earth influences, for whatever reason smile .


Very hot next week so its OZONE hole theory..

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#1461059 - 05/04/2018 21:11 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: chasers addict]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7501
Loc: Adelaide Hills
Originally Posted By: chasers addict
Originally Posted By: Seira
N.B.: I suggest doing the relevant research and investigating for oneself if one is interested enough... in external Earth influences, for whatever reason smile .


Very hot next week so its OZONE hole theory..

Call it what you will smile .


Edited by Seira (05/04/2018 21:14)
_________________________
Getting peace of mind and invoking kindness!

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#1461114 - 06/04/2018 22:07 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
aussiestormfreak Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 02/02/2011
Posts: 6011
Loc: Melbourne (Belgrave); Corryong...
Although I'm not feeling too confident (given how pathetic the models have been, and how near-constant this dry weather has been), there appears to be some signs that Winter 2018 may be finally getting ready to swing into action!

We still have stubborn high pressure persisting over Southern Australia well into the coming week, deflecting most cold fronts to the south unfortunately. However, a low pressure system is predicted to sweep through Victoria mid/late next week, preceded by a hot northerly airflow (which may raise the risk of bushfire yet again), and hopefully bring rain and thunderstorms as it passes through. Forecast tops of 31C for Melbourne and 37C for Mildura on Tuesday.

Both ACCESS and GFS also seem to be suggesting that the next potentially major winter storm for the season is on its way next week. ACCESS currently has a vigorous, unstable polar air mass charging north into the Bight late next week, and then suddenly winding up into a tight, powerful low pressure cell that draws in yet another polar air mass from the south (intensifying the storm even further) and then bursts across Victoria on Monday April 16th.

GFS, meanwhile, has the initial cold pool riding the Roaring Forties next week, before suddenly breaking free and charging north towards Southern Australia. The isobars around the cold pool start to wind-up, wrapping the cold pool into a enormous, powerful storm system that enters the Bight next Saturday week; the preceding low pressure area due for Victoria mid-next week gets eroded and shoved east by a rapidly-strengthening northerly airflow as the storm prepares to strike!

Not wanting to get my hopes too high, as the models could suddenly back-off at any moment, but I'll watch it closely for any signs that heavy rain and stormy weather are finally heading our way! smile

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#1461835 - 15/04/2018 18:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7147
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Would love to post something positive for our important grain growing regions. But it looks like we have to continue waiting for the break.

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#1461968 - 17/04/2018 18:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7147
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
If you like fine and mild weekends in mid Autumn, this weekend looks like a doosey:



Would be very nice at locations like Bright or Metung!

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#1462138 - 19/04/2018 18:48 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7147
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
No rain of note evident "out there" for next 6-7 days frown

So desperate for rain here, ....maybe there's enough moisture from the NW ahead of a possible cold air surge from the Bight "way out there" later next week to set up the first ECL in God knows how long for somewhere in NSW/Vic SE??


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#1462153 - 19/04/2018 20:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2038
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
Around Orbost and Cann River recently, can't remember seeing it so dry, both areas being very reliable rainfall wise for the farmers.

Cattle destocking must have already started as numbers are reduced, or if sold off ealier fattened - not replaced.

It's that bad !!

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#1462160 - 19/04/2018 21:53 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2568
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Chat has updated is Friday 27th to Sunday 29th deep cold upper low /trough will stall in NSW with heavy thundery rains with flooding likly.

For Victoria are just on edge in NE/E Victoria likely some rain.

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#1462161 - 19/04/2018 22:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 799
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes ... it is a long time since I've seen it so bare in this area. If the frosts set in before there's an autumn break - there'll be nothing in the paddocks for months.

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#1462266 - 20/04/2018 18:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7147
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Hopefully the low pressure system passing under Adelaide mid next week brings enough moisture into Vic from NW to prevent frosts, ...for a week.

There is still a chance for NSW's coastal low to develop lower on NSW's coast than that forecast by GFS's "out there" in forecast (...or it's just Petros and his dubious wishful thinking??).

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#1462336 - 21/04/2018 17:54 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7147
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest GFS shows a return to nothingness for Vic next week.:



Heres to a good drink in May!! ...????

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#1462339 - 21/04/2018 18:16 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 5890
Loc: Dural
That's pretty damning Petros.
Hoping the pattern changes soon for you guys down south.

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#1462340 - 21/04/2018 18:20 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2568
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Well bom thinks dry winter as I hope is false..

High Pressure continue in May will be killer frost.

We need more West South Polar winds as seem not ready bring cold wintry.

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#1462445 - 23/04/2018 18:22 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7147
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This arvo's model runs show no mechanism for moist air to be over SE Aus to be in place when the next couple of cold air surges are mooted to arrive from the bight - the dry (and chances of the frosts CA mentioned) will continue for another 10 days its seems?

We could have Vic bushfire in May the way things are currently holding IMO.

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#1462451 - 23/04/2018 21:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1287
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Your right p!!
Nothing to see over the next 10days that's
For sure!!
Need something to come up and bust this
Current dry stable period up!

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#1462634 - 27/04/2018 07:55 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2038
Loc: Sale, Central Gippsland, S/E V...
As said above and we get closer to Thru 3/5, all models agreeing re some showers, not much in it this stage, maybe 5 or 6 mm squeezed between two 1027hPa'ish highs.

Heard on the local ABC this AM re East Vic stock being sent away to QLD, my obs in the last 1 1/2weeks arrived at the same conclusion, not a lot of spare feed in what I saw of NSW.

Coastal Nth NSW and Sth QLD looked OK.

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#1462660 - 27/04/2018 18:37 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 7147
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Latest model run enhances late next weeks change a bit Samboz:



At least some rain for the usual coastal beneficiaries of SW'ly showers. Hopefully might enhance as time progresses, emphasis on hope.

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#1462661 - 27/04/2018 18:51 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1287
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yep p and samboz, looking like our first fairly
Cold blast for the year!! I'll wait until it's a
Little closer to the date and if it hangs tough
I'll start a thread

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