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#1463910 - 16/05/2018 07:43 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Seira]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I have a question incidental to thermocline depth- Iíve come across a number of references to the shoaling of the mixed layer leading to warming. I had thought of the mixed layer depth as a proxy for thermocline depth and anomously deeper thermocline was indicative of warming(warm Kelvin waves), so shoaling of the mixed layer was synonymous with negative thermocline depth anomly. Anyone able to clarify?

I'd like to help/find out as well smile , however, perhaps similarly, I'm having rather a lot of difficulty finding a clear literature definition of what "shoaling" means with respect to changes in the thermocline. Shoaling is a term I have not encountered often.


I'll try to track down the notes which sparked this query - perhaps a more careful reading on my part may help clarify. Post if I find anything.

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#1463919 - 16/05/2018 11:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mike Hauber]
Locke Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 27/12/2007
Posts: 4446
Loc: Brisbane
Originally Posted By: Mike Hauber
Originally Posted By: Kino
Meh, they said the same last year....and we all know how that evolved.


It resulted in claims that the models had been certain of an el nino. They weren't last year, and they aren't this year.

Still the most likely scenario.


Not according to the latest POAMA or CFSv2 runs which incidentally seem to be the most recent (at least on BOM's website). I would suggest these forecasts show warm neutral to be the most likely result at the moment.
_________________________
This post and any other post by Locke is NOT an official forecast & should not be used as such. It's just my opinion & may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, refer to Australian Bureau of Meteorology products.

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#1463922 - 16/05/2018 12:00 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Which was the model that picked up the initial swing last season? Wasn't it CFSv2 & POAMA?

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#1463934 - 16/05/2018 14:27 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim
CFS v2 and POAMA were also forecasting cool conditions to continue through Autumn and failed to pick up the current warming trend.

As I posted above the Candian ensemble of all models shows over 60% chance of el nino.

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#1463935 - 16/05/2018 14:38 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
And it was, what, 80/90% last year?

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#1463946 - 16/05/2018 17:28 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Not buying the El-Nino idea after last year's model efforts. Warming maybe...but El-Nino, not buying it yet.

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#1463953 - 16/05/2018 20:24 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: snowbooby]
Seira Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 27/08/2003
Posts: 7422
Loc: Adelaide Hills.
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
Originally Posted By: Seira
Originally Posted By: snowbooby
I have a question incidental to thermocline depth- Iíve come across a number of references to the shoaling of the mixed layer leading to warming. I had thought of the mixed layer depth as a proxy for thermocline depth and anomously deeper thermocline was indicative of warming(warm Kelvin waves), so shoaling of the mixed layer was synonymous with negative thermocline depth anomly. Anyone able to clarify?

I'd like to help/find out as well smile , however, perhaps similarly, I'm having rather a lot of difficulty finding a clear literature definition of what "shoaling" means with respect to changes in the thermocline. Shoaling is a term I have not encountered often.


I'll try to track down the notes which sparked this query - perhaps a more careful reading on my part may help clarify. Post if I find anything.

I've heard of shoaling in relation to waves cresting near shore [near the beach] however that is possibly very different, maybe even incomparable, to a shoaling of the thermocline... confused ???

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#1463973 - 17/05/2018 09:31 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5166
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Initial MJO forecasting looking like it could strengthen as it heads into the Pacific in early June. Certainly looking warmer sub surface already, if this happens could see a push into El Nino?


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#1463989 - 17/05/2018 17:06 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4501
Loc: Wynnum
BoM winter seasonal outlook going for cooler min temps over Northern and Eastern Qld suggesting drier than average, leaning to El Nino like conditions. After good Feb-Mar rains, April was below average locally, and May so far has not been too flash either. SOI has been falling and also NINO 3 has risen to about zero for the first time in 8 months.


Edited by retired weather man (17/05/2018 17:08)
Edit Reason: word change
_________________________
Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May 29.2(100)YTD 587.6(627.1)

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#1464008 - 17/05/2018 18:41 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6923
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Early days, but summer 2018/19 in Vic looks potentially problematic at this early stage?

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#1464017 - 17/05/2018 22:39 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Way too far off to even speculate, though the usual suspects will no doubt decry their end of the world mantra.

I wonder what impact Hawaiiiís volcanic explosion will have on ENSO.

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#1464018 - 17/05/2018 23:04 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 306
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
As of late the ash output has really ramped up, along with this Hawaii sits in North-East trade wind alley. But the interesting thing is Hawaii sits just a little east of the centre of the pacific ocean, so counting a little spread of the ash a little west. What has a cool patch in the centre of the pacific yes, you guessed it La Nina Modoki. Although note this is a scenario completely in neutral conditions.

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#1464019 - 17/05/2018 23:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
That warm pool on the subsurface is starting to look a little nasty...whether it actually makes the surface or not is the big question.

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#1464034 - 18/05/2018 11:13 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Mega]
Mike Hauber Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/07/2007
Posts: 3059
Loc: Buderim


Originally Posted By: Mega
That warm pool on the subsurface is starting to look a little nasty...whether it actually makes the surface or not is the big question.


Subsurface warmth does not make it to the surface. What it does is block the normal pattern of cool water rising to the surface, allowing the sun to raise the surface water temps. These may be as cool as 20 degrees or less in the far east when the upwelling is strong, but water in other parts of the tropics which is not being cooled by such an upwelling tends to get warmed up to around 30 degrees by the sun.

This blocking of the upwelling has presumably being going for a while now, and surface temps have been steadily rising throughout the central and eastern Pacific. Even though trade winds have been a little above average, which would otherwise tend to encourage surface cooling. Although cloudiness is below average, so increased solar heating due to less clouds may be causing some of the recent surface warming.

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#1464036 - 18/05/2018 12:42 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 6973
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
Good to know, thanks Mike.

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#1464039 - 18/05/2018 13:53 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Hawaii's volcano has gone bang and spewed out millions if not billions of tonnes of ash 30000feet up - now we wait and see what the climate impacts will be.

This picture is just WOW! 6 water spouts in a row from the rising hot air.



Edited by Kino (18/05/2018 13:55)

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#1464048 - 18/05/2018 17:10 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 585
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
You can see where the Sulphur dioxide is going on this Map . Pretty cool .


Edited by Funkyseefunkydo (18/05/2018 17:13)

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#1464052 - 18/05/2018 18:15 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
Kino Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2027
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
Cheers FSFD - assume if thatís the direction of gases then ash would also be that direction. Right across the PDO.

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#1464055 - 18/05/2018 19:22 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: Kino]
Delta-T Offline
Cloud Gazer

Registered: 21/01/2011
Posts: 37
Loc: Peachester
[quote=Kino]- now we wait and see what the climate impacts will be.

My guess is next to zero. Kilauea is a bit of a pimple.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/particulates/surface/level/overlay=pm2.5/orthographic=138.55,15.80,378

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#1464058 - 18/05/2018 21:08 Re: Climate Driver Discussion 2018 (Enso, IOD, PDO ,SAM etc) [Re: ColdFront]
snowbooby Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 11/05/2016
Posts: 159
I imagine if it was more like pinatubo (1991 I think it was), and breached the tropopause, it might get more interesting. Has to get to about 60,000 ft.

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