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#1464085 - 20/05/2018 08:51 Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L.
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
ACCESS has a rip snorter cold air mass impacting Vic late next Thursday, 24th May.

This model is forecasting air as cold or colder than the last Wintery blast in the previous thread - "Rain/Snow for Vic, commence Wed 9/5, ECL ? ".

eg 524!!! - http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/v...it=Refresh+View

So far other models aren't talking about it that I could see, give it a day or so and this will kick off in the media, particularly if the ECL continues to form up on Saturday 26/05.

Possible good rains in this event, plenty need it grin

(ACCESS often stretches out these models in that they occur later than
initially forecast - see how it goes! )
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1464087 - 20/05/2018 09:29 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks for the thread samboz 👍

Yeah I did see that this morning s!
Looks very cold and snowy with possible
Sea level snow is tas lol

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#1464092 - 20/05/2018 11:46 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2519
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Thanks Tread, very strange the winter shifted around corner of Victoria to NSW by High Pressure is very tight narrow allow deep cold uppers...

Very cold nights inland average 5c and well below 10c will last another 4 months for sure.

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#1464093 - 20/05/2018 11:46 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
yep Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 04/07/2013
Posts: 408
Loc: Hobart
Yes I couldn't believe what I was looking at, I just posted a message in the Tasmania thread about it, before reading this. I don't know, but I seem to think ACCESSG over-hypes things at this point in the forecast period, then downgrades.

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#1464094 - 20/05/2018 12:14 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2519
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Windy Charts and wxmaps.org charts are not same as weatherzone GFS there is High Pressure over Victoria on May Friday 25th ???
Dont know which will downgrade or change charts..




Edited by chasers addict (20/05/2018 12:15)

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#1464096 - 20/05/2018 12:49 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
It's a funny one on the models because
Yesterday morning gfs loved it and accessg
Didn't like it at all lol
Completely backflips on each other today

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#1464097 - 20/05/2018 12:58 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6996
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
The good thing is, its back to potential weather events looming again, after a prolonged boring period.

Will be interesting to see what eventuates when this large high pressure system departs!

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#1464102 - 20/05/2018 18:26 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6996
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
...and in a (to me) surprising flip, GFS now sniffs a scent of what you are predicting Samboz:




....suddenly makes Petros's mental image of blissfully gliding up the fairways of Royal Maffra trimming grass in retirement when needed - a little less alluring?

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#1464113 - 20/05/2018 19:59 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Gfs still not sold on the system, but that's two
Runs in a row now from accessg showing a
Real wintery set up!!

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#1464124 - 21/05/2018 08:06 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: yep]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Originally Posted By: yep
Yes I couldn't believe what I was looking at, I just posted a message in the Tasmania thread about it, before reading this. I don't know, but I seem to think ACCESSG over-hypes things at this point in the forecast period, then downgrades.


Agree yep, ACCESS has given this a major downgrade this morning, didn't get to check it out y'day.

Cold air mass reduced in intensity but still forecast, GFS?

We'll see.





Edited by samboz (21/05/2018 08:13)
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2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1464125 - 21/05/2018 08:20 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: Petros]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Originally Posted By: Petros
...and in a (to me) surprising flip, GFS now sniffs a scent of what you are predicting Samboz:


What ACCESS was predicting P grin
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1464128 - 21/05/2018 09:00 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Yes it looks like accessg has pegged it back
Somewhat and it's now just a clipper.
Gfs still off it as well.

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#1464136 - 21/05/2018 12:14 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6996
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Yep, models seeing the huge higher moving away slower. Good for SW WA though - allows a low pressure system to linger, and they need rain too.

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#1464165 - 21/05/2018 21:49 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2519
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Well the GFS charts kept changing so wait until system goes past Perth.

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#1464173 - 22/05/2018 10:39 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6996
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Couple of showers on Sunday, a few more later for next Tuesday - this season looks likely to have missed the Autumn break for central Gippsland (not many of us would describe rain in June, should any develop, as the break).

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#1464177 - 22/05/2018 11:10 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2519
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Warm looming this weekend to Monday 22nd for N.NW country for short time.

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#1464194 - 22/05/2018 18:35 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 6996
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
This event still looks to provide a change and showers. The one following (or is it this one deferred a bit Samboz?) looks a bit more grunty for mid next week?

Whatever, winter has definitely arrived early for Gippsland in my opinion! frown

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#1464204 - 22/05/2018 19:39 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
samboz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 16/11/2014
Posts: 2004
Loc: Sale, NthGippsland, S/E VIC
Next one on the way I reckon P, didn't follow it real well, been busy, I think ours wandered off to NZ under the high influence, bgr!!

4mm lately here, great to see dooga' with such a handy drop grin
_________________________
2018 RAINFALL. JAN-53.4MM FEB-14MM MARCH-18MM APRIL-7.5MM MAY-28MM JUN-11MM to 0900 18th

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#1464227 - 23/05/2018 11:56 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
doogasnow Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 07/12/2014
Posts: 1260
Loc: traf/moe south 410m asl/west &...
Thanks samboz👍 I reckon I'll have more to
Add to yesterday's total as well! Drizzled and
Showers all night again.

Yeah this first front has all but gone now I think?
But the one Tuesday next week looks like
It could possibly produce some weather?

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#1464229 - 23/05/2018 13:14 Re: Cold air mass, Snow arriving approx 24thMay'18 - E.C.L. [Re: samboz]
chasers addict Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/12/2007
Posts: 2519
Loc: Bendigo/ Kangaroo Flat, Vic Ra...
Next Tuesday will be very quick cold uppers with showers then stubborn High Pressure switch to NW winds until June, so hope next system bring cold blast first week of June..



Edited by chasers addict (23/05/2018 13:16)

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