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#1464251 - 23/05/2018 21:33 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
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Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Thanks Homer, I love watching big surf. Just there shear power and energy they have is mesmerizing.
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#1464252 - 23/05/2018 21:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
Agreed Eddy.
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#1464254 - 23/05/2018 22:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
ashestoashes Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 22/10/2017
Posts: 470
Loc: Voyager Point (South West Sydn...
Real question is that should we have a thread because it is either an ECL or just another vigorous cold front bringing not much rain.


Edited by ashestoashes (23/05/2018 22:53)

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#1464256 - 23/05/2018 23:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6001
Loc: Dural
Not sure anyone is questioning whether there should be a thread or not, nor the reason for it.
It's more or less a waiting game atm and generally, unless a system seems locked in a long way out, (a rarity) a thread normally isn't started till 3 or 4 days out anyway.

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#1464257 - 23/05/2018 23:23 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4444
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
The models now all agree that something happens in about a week's time. A cold change plus... the models disagree. EC looks best for rain.

There is a 'Possible Future events' thread. Or we could leave it until things look a bit more certain. I'd suggest holding off on a new thread until the weekend, but if anyone starts one sooner, that's fine.

P.S. Beautiful Autumn trees Homer. Great surf photos Eddy.


Edited by Steve777 (23/05/2018 23:24)

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#1464258 - 24/05/2018 08:01 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: EddyG]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
Originally Posted By: EddyG
Originally Posted By: ashestoashes
obviously i'm just making a judgement on what Kino's logic may have been.


Yeah I understand that!!

I was just looking at some SST charts of the Tasman and waters closer to NZ are a couple of degrees cooler than water the waters of Aus are.

I will see if I can find a decent map to show.


Or maybe the man himself could tell us what he meant. smile
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#1464259 - 24/05/2018 08:04 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
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Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6001
Loc: Dural
Haha.

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#1464261 - 24/05/2018 08:36 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
grin


Thanks Steve777.

Cool start here this morning 6.1c. Looking like another crystal clear day coming up.

Models not as promising this morning.
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YTD - 875.9mm
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#1464266 - 24/05/2018 11:03 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Going to be some mild days early next week before the change, most places in the Hunter will see temp 24-25c next Tuesday, not bad for less than a week out from Winter!!
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#1464276 - 24/05/2018 15:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Kino Online   content
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 10/08/2017
Posts: 2690
Loc: Wollongong, NSW, Aus
What I was alluding too, was that warmer SSTís during autumn seem to suck cold pools towards it bombing deep Tasman Lows which scoot e/se across NZ under the prevailing geostrophic flow, dragging all the goodness with it.

But then, if warmer SSTís persist into Winger, they seem to assist in forming true ECLís that form near the coast allowing significant and severe weather - 2007, 2016 for eg (2007 had 5 alone).

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#1464278 - 24/05/2018 18:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
kizz Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 11/02/2002
Posts: 2045
Loc: Beacon Hill, Sydney 152m asl
So a perfect setup for a damaging ECL because we all want to pay more for our home and contents insurance premiums.

Don't we kids? Right? poke

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#1464280 - 24/05/2018 20:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Wave Rider Offline
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Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 7004
I sure would love an ECL.

I bet forecasters love these kind of weather patterns as they are so predictable. High pressure system prevails with W to S winds and then as cold front approaches the winds will turn NW to NE and temps warm a bit. Then the cold front comes through with strong W/SW winds at first, tending more southerly as the next high moves over. That's what the models are showing for the next 8 days. I bet the following week will be S/SW winds slowly warming up under high pressure like 2 weeks ago was after the May 11th cold front.
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#1464285 - 25/05/2018 08:22 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Had a nice solid downpour around 10pm last night, which dropped 4.1mm.

Well some of the models are looking better this morning, GFS probably the most promising with rainfall.
Nearly time to make a thread for the upcoming event.
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YTD - 875.9mm
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#1464286 - 25/05/2018 08:28 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Steve777 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 20/10/2011
Posts: 4444
Loc: Artarmon (Sydney North Shore)
Thought I would capture this for ECL lovers, especially those in Sydney. This is the situation 10PM next Friday 31st:



All models now show an ECL / Tasman low developing on the 30th-31st, following the passage of a strong cold front. The details, especially the location and intensity of rainfall, differ. Access and EC have the low further out to sea.

P.S. It was quite a warm night last night, hovering around 16-17 all night after sunset at OH. However, today's minimum will have occurred at 9:00 yesterday (13.6 for OH).

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#1464289 - 25/05/2018 09:31 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Homer Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 16/06/2007
Posts: 6001
Loc: Dural
Doesn't it say 10.00 pm Thursday?
Anyway, if it comes off there won't be much Saturday sport on I wouldn't think.

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#1464291 - 25/05/2018 10:26 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Homer, good pick up. I bet you were good at playing spot the difference out of the Sunday papers? grin


Starting to cloud over here, might get a shower or two.
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MTD - 44.4mm
YTD - 875.9mm
https://www.instagram.com/eddygroot/

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#1464299 - 25/05/2018 14:37 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 710
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
Looks a cut off low to me.

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#1464307 - 25/05/2018 15:53 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Grant]
Funkyseefunkydo Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 30/04/2007
Posts: 710
Loc: East Lake Macquarie
IMO a true ECL travels north-south and not S-N.

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#1464308 - 25/05/2018 16:09 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
ozthunder Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 3209
Loc: Mt Warrigal, NSW, Australia
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
IMO a true ECL travels north-south and not S-N.


There a few interpretations of a true ECL.

If somebody asked this very question 30 years ago, and ECL would only be labelled to a 'bombing' low off the NSW coast. This would be after a strong west or south west change with an attendant upper - mid level closed cold pool (or polar vortex as social media site like to call them). The cold pool would usually be over inland NSW, with the surface ECL bomb forming somewhere to the E or SE of the upper cold pool.
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#1464311 - 25/05/2018 17:07 Re: NSW/ACT day to day weather [Re: Funkyseefunkydo]
EddyG Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 19/12/2008
Posts: 5089
Loc: Port Stephens NSW
Originally Posted By: Funkyseefunkydo
IMO a true ECL travels north-south and not S-N.


Fascinating.

My thoughts on a true ECL is their unpredictability.

From the BOM
Looking at all the lows between 1973 - 2004, there is no evidence of a trend.
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YTD - 875.9mm
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