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#1464624 - 30/05/2018 18:16 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
Yea its boring..but when it does...

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#1464634 - 30/05/2018 19:52 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7272
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
A few nice flashes in this cell approaching us, and some surprisingly decent structure for almost June as well. Won't last very long though.

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#1464635 - 30/05/2018 19:59 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Video of some of the hail in Lowood from the cells this afternoon:

https://www.facebook.com/SevereWeatherAustralia/videos/10156377401387505/

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#1464636 - 30/05/2018 20:09 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Mega Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/02/2003
Posts: 7272
Loc: Maryborough, Wide Bay, QLD
What a nice little storm that was, probably better than a lot of the leftover crap that we tend to get in summer. Even a couple of flangs to finish it off, good stuff.

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#1464638 - 30/05/2018 20:25 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Yep the advantage with any storms at this time of year/winter/spring is the much better shear compared to the sloppy disorganised mess we get in deep summer.

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#1464648 - 30/05/2018 22:11 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Seabreeze Offline
Weatherzone Moderator

Registered: 18/09/2005
Posts: 10454
Loc: South West Rocks, NSW
A few isolated thunderstorms about the northern MNC this afternoon / early evening, around Woolgoolga and also in-between Crescent Head and Laurieton. One distant roll of thunder was heard here. A dry W/WSW'ly wind moved in here around mid-afternoon killing off convection that was starting to develop more locally. Dewpoints crashed firmly into single digits with the wind change.
_________________________
South West Rocks, NSW Mid North Coast:
November 2018 Rainfall: 74.8mm (November Avg. 115.2mm) // November 2018 Raindays: 9 (November Avg. 11.7 raindays)
Year-to-date Rainfall: 1297.8mm (Jan-Nov Avg. 1357.1mm) // Year-to-date Raindays: 120 (Jan-Nov Avg. 124.6 raindays)

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#1464659 - 31/05/2018 07:39 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Ken Kato]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1638
Loc: Australia
Originally Posted By: Ken Kato
Yep the advantage with any storms at this time of year/winter/spring is the much better shear compared to the sloppy disorganised mess we get in deep summer.



So we need the winter patterns to happen in summer then were all set !!!! I would be happy with that.

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#1464660 - 31/05/2018 08:08 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
retired weather man Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 01/07/2007
Posts: 4792
Loc: Wynnum
Wynnum Nth Thu min 6.1C - coldest this year to date.
_________________________

Wyn Nth 2018-Jan12.2(158),Feb264.4(146),Mar217.0(126),Apr65.8(96),May46.0(100),Jun39.8(74),Jul19.6(56.1),Aug 23.6(45),Sep33.2(32),Oct150.0(95)Nov16.8(109)YTD888.4(1037.4),

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#1464672 - 31/05/2018 10:44 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CJI Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/10/2005
Posts: 130
Loc: Victoria Point
OK, it wasn't that great, but it's the first decent amount of lightning I've seen in SEQLD this year.

The only thing that comes close to making up for storms dying on our doorstep in early spring is the light shows out to sea during Autumn. I was worried we wouldn't get any this year.

They formed well off the coast around 9:30-10:00pm and as much as I was anticipating them, I neglected to charge my batteries and soon ran out of juice.







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Gallery

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#1464674 - 31/05/2018 11:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
gleno71 Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 09/11/2007
Posts: 1638
Loc: Australia
Amazing photos CJI well done mate

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#1464675 - 31/05/2018 11:06 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: CJI]
wetdreams Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 25/10/2010
Posts: 99
Loc: Mooloolah Valley QLD
Great shots.
With the full moon the sky almost looks like day time in a couple of those.

Thanks for posting.
_________________________
Going to sleep with heavy rain on a tin roof always makes for ‘wetdreams’….

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#1464678 - 31/05/2018 11:37 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
CJI Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/10/2005
Posts: 130
Loc: Victoria Point
Cheers guys. Its nice to have finally seen some activity.
Yeah, the moon was nice enough to illuminate the clouds without washing out too much of the lightning.
_________________________
Gallery

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#1464680 - 31/05/2018 11:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5202
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Great photos CJI smile Enjoyed watching the storms off the Coffs Coast last night.
Big winter forecast from the BoM - looking much drier and warmer than usual across much of SE Australia. I've also included the latest rainfall deficiency map as well - looks like a continuation of the conditions experienced so far in 2018. Will be interesting to look back at the end of winter to see how it pans out (and if it pans out as expected then we'll likely see an early start to the fire season - feels like the last one is only just finished)>



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#1464681 - 31/05/2018 12:20 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
petethemoskeet Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 13/08/2003
Posts: 1323
Loc: toowoomba
I'm sure that is the same generic forecast they use for every winter.

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#1464686 - 31/05/2018 13:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: petethemoskeet]
KevD Offline
Occasional Visitor

Registered: 23/09/2001
Posts: 5202
Loc: Bellingen NSW 2454
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
I'm sure that is the same generic forecast they use for every winter.

Might feel like it, but here for example is the winter rainfall forecast for the year before last - very different:


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#1464688 - 31/05/2018 13:30 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Warwick Eye2Sky Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 31/08/2010
Posts: 1061
Loc: Warwick, QLD
It’s amazing how someone can we are in for our coldest winter ever, and on the other hand you see a forecast like this. I guess we will have to wait and see who wins out, is it the sun or man made global warming?
Anyway, that discussion is for another time and place.
Around -1.5 here this morning. Lower than expected. Very very dry today! Should lead to more sub 0 temps overnight.


Edited by Warwick Eye2Sky (31/05/2018 13:32)
_________________________
Michael - your eyes to the west.

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#1464691 - 31/05/2018 14:28 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: KevD]
Ken Kato Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 05/03/2012
Posts: 5476
Originally Posted By: KevD
Originally Posted By: petethemoskeet
I'm sure that is the same generic forecast they use for every winter.

Might feel like it, but here for example is the winter rainfall forecast for the year before last - very different:



That forecast ended up verifying pretty well with what actually happened too:

P.S. awesome shots CJI



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#1464707 - 31/05/2018 18:58 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
Steve O Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 02/03/2011
Posts: 3278
Loc: Beenleigh, QLD
This next change the way that ridge sets up will be interesting to watch. On one hand theres a huge Tasman Low does it keep is under a more S'ly influence or does it move far enough to let the ridge wrap around a warmer more humid airmass.

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#1464710 - 31/05/2018 19:05 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: Seabreeze]
BIG T Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 24/01/2012
Posts: 1145
Loc: Albany Creek , QLD
Should’ve spent the last two years on the nz West Coast , at least they get some action.

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#1464716 - 31/05/2018 20:49 Re: SEQLD / NENSW Day to Day Weather - 2018 [Re: BIG T]
Nature's Fury Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 29/11/2009
Posts: 2225
Loc: Brisbane Western Suburbs
Brisbane Weather bagging out BOM on FB for its forecast. And here's its own:

Winter Outlook 2018

Winter this year will come under a few different factors. We have entered solar Minimum, which means sunspot activity is dropping to a a all time low. This plays a big important part with the weather as these sunspots, produce solar flares, which produce heating in the upper atmosphere. Which is at a all time low and the upper atmosphere is cooling down due to sunspot decrease.

We already have the evidence of this happening in the northern hemisphere, which has recorded one of its coldest winters in a very longtime!. Not only do we have this in play we also have a lower warm pool of water in the pacific ocean and if this comes to the surface, it will help push us towards a El nino like situation.

So whats going to happen this winter!

We will have below average temperatures across the nation, including SEQ (this does not mean every location). Now there is a few factors we need to watch out for

1. If the warm pool of water comes to the surface and creates a el nino like scenario then winter will be bitterly cold and dry

2. The atmosphere regardless on any Model predictions including ECMWF, GFS and so on do not take into play sunspot activity and the affects it has on the upper atmosphere. So this alone means that these models CANNOT give a true reading for winter. With the upper atmosphere cooling down and has been for a few years now, this will enhance the chance of the southern hemisphere, getting a big winter storm that the northern hemisphere is well know for. If a big winter storm forms and affects Australia, we could see snow reaching areas that doesn't normally facilitate snow, snow falling in areas that haven't seen snow for a while and will bring bitter cold temperatures and a lot of temperature records will break including hard frosts

Regardless on either 1, 2 or both we will have a cooler than average winter. How cold depends on the outcome of 1 and or 2 or even both

In the meantime i would urge anyone who listens to anyone who bases their winter outlook on just models, to do their research. These models do not take these factors into consideration

a few months ago i said summer will last 6 weeks longer than normal with high temperatures, this has happened and then after anzac day temperatures will drop. This will happen slowly but i am concerned there is a chance we could see this also hitting us hard and fast!

Also the south pole is currently -53F, July 2017 it was -57F!

So overall cooler than normal winter, frosts and snow and also pends on the other possible outcomes!



Edited by Nature's Fury (31/05/2018 20:56)

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