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#1234117 - 24/01/2014 19:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Ruckle]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
It may or may not have been thread-worthy ;-)))but it certainly was a lovely bit of rain in this part of the world. It was getting crispy-dry 'round here with plenty of fuel and the rain that we got (25mm) is more than welcome. It started mid-morning, rained steadily without a break til late afternoon and then, like a curtain being drawn away the rain stopped and it was a sunny late arvo. A bit of scruffy cloud now.

Not only is the rain most welcome, it was one of the most pleasant rain events I've known in a long time.

The BoM and WATL proved smarter than most of the fluctuating models in the end in timing and in distribution and totals.

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#1234166 - 25/01/2014 07:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2868
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Well Said ThunderBob! I too thoroughly enjoyed the rain and I was quite impressed with the total. It was steady, heavy and continuous from 6.30am till midday. After midday a couple of little errant clouds gave short, but heavy bursts and that was that. The sun came out. The garden said thank you. The outside temperature was comfortable. It was just a great day.


Edited by Gabby (25/01/2014 07:58)

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#1239681 - 05/02/2014 19:51 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Ruckle Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 03/08/2005
Posts: 6464
Loc: Woodend VIC 579m ASL - where w...
Some decent rain possible around the end of next week? 15th or so for western and or central parts? Been hinted at for a few days at the end of model runs. Wait and see I guess.
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Check out my Youtube channel http://www.youtube.com/user/Ruckle18?feature=mhum for more storms and even some snow

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#1239710 - 05/02/2014 21:45 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Ruckle]
Lucy Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 07/03/2013
Posts: 82
Loc: Lilydale Victoria Creswick Vic...
Thanks for that info, Ruckle I know it's only a possibility but hope is a wonderful thing and lifts the spirits somewhat, even if we are disappointed again!!!!

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#1239908 - 06/02/2014 21:33 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Lucy]
ThunderBob Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 23/01/2011
Posts: 953
Loc: Sarsfield, East Gippsland, Vic
Yes, interesting to watch. ACCESS G more positive and progging more general. GFS a bit half-hearted and, as Ruckle suggests, more a SW and Central event.


Edited by ThunderBob (06/02/2014 21:34)

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#1240093 - 07/02/2014 21:44 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
BOM on ABC radio interviews have mooted the possibility of a wet event at the end of next week yesterday/today (with the appropriate "out there" disclaimers).

I would love that, but cant see it happening based on this arvos model data - can anyone help me out?

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#1240097 - 07/02/2014 22:00 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Yeah Petros, it looks more south-east SA, south-west Vic rather than widespread.

There is a slug of rain that crawls across the bight out of the back end of that tropical depression currently near Wyndham in WA 95S thread here but there is lack of model consensus as to whether it will turn south earlier or reach the ocean and intensify before turning south, giving the variation in rainfall amounts and date.

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#1240197 - 08/02/2014 13:23 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Access is also progging a rain bearing low that will dump on SE NSW, Gippsland and NE Vic next Sunday but it is way out the end of the model period. Also not sure where it came from.

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#1240284 - 08/02/2014 17:57 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
We'll Take what ever we can get up here on the Murray river.

I've not looked deep into the stats, but I would swear I can only think of two days all summer long that were below 30c, must be well over 20days now above 40c and I dont think we'd have had more than 10mm spread out 0.5mm at a time from evening Cu's after heat Instability, only one of those days ever produced a Thunderstorm with Photogenic Lightning (and was 40km from my own town).



Near Blighty NSW



Near Finley NSW


Dam Blocking Highs/Ridges. Hopefully this Tropical Flow is enough to break us free for the rest of summer.

I remember a similar Situation some years back, i think maybe 08 or 09. In that Season the blocking high rebuilt it self after a similar event and we remained in drought for another year. smirk (Not that a drought has been declared)(Just pointing out similarity and how Blocking may return)
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Formerly Known as "Supercell Kid"
My Wx: http://wxug.us/1r14c

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#1240298 - 08/02/2014 18:34 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
I think this event (while it may not come off quite as much) Will produce some significant totals, and is probably worthy of its own thread. Starting to look more optimistic now.

Also did you guys not see this on the GFS 8-16 day? I noticed it a while back and of course didnt pay much attention to it as the 8-16 day often shows things like this that dont come close to coming off, but now that we are 6 days out and looking quite good for North West and North Central VIC, as well as South West NSW and Southern Riverina also Eastern Vic looking like a bit too now.What do y'all reckon? Im not that big on starting threads, so seeing as its only 6 days out now (For Western VIC) could someone start a Event thread?

Obviously too early to say who will get rain Bombed, but I think its fair to say perhaps a 2/3 of VIC will get above 10mm and as much as 70mm for the event.

Good luck! Happy Chasing!


Edited by Jayson Black (08/02/2014 18:43)
Edit Reason: Its good practice to word things better :P
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Formerly Known as "Supercell Kid"
My Wx: http://wxug.us/1r14c

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#1240374 - 08/02/2014 21:38 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
Great photo's "ex SSK" (I reckon I'm allowed to call you that after all these years smile ).

Yep time for a new thread, and especially as this (initially) looks like a Finely event, then nominate that bloke Jayson Black to initiate it! smile

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#1240387 - 08/02/2014 21:49 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
seconded smile

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#1240396 - 08/02/2014 22:01 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
LOL. It certainly has been a few years.

I might leave it another 24 hours then before starting the thread so we have abetter end date. ATM, the rain seems to be going to start in Western VIC on Friday the 14th and the heaviest on the 16th in slightly to the east and west of Central Northern VIC although the center area looks set for some good rain too. But its a bit hard to say what date I should use for the end date i.e. Feb 14th to Feb xx.

you can see in those lightning pics it is sooooooo Dry up here. So even if we got only 30mm spread out over 3 or 4 day that would be a vast improvement of what we have had (or rather not had).

Even the Magpies up here look so parched. I'll go for a drive when the first rain comes (lightning or not) and get some video of the dry soil receiving its first drops, ill record the sounds of the birds as they celebrate the rain. Because they do, don they? You can see their little spirits lift after long dry heat then rain returning. Seeing that then lifts my spirits, i'll take the kids (the Dish Lickers) too, im sure they will love running around in the rain. Dont ya love the smell of the rain in those circumstances, smells so organic, the high moisture mixed with dust.

Anyway, may the Weather gods be kind to all areas

Check out my next post, I found something bizarre in one of those lightning pics, but its a bit hard to see unless your looking at a full res pic. UFO?!?!?! LOL. (just gonna make a cropped version in Photoshop. No other Enhancements though
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Formerly Known as "Supercell Kid"
My Wx: http://wxug.us/1r14c

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#1240411 - 08/02/2014 22:24 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Jayson Black Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 06/12/2002
Posts: 435
Loc: Near Tocumwal (Murray River)
Just noticed a strange anomaly in one of my lightning pics. Something shaped like a crescent.

Its too far away to be an insect, if it where close it would be out of focus. The lightning strike is bout 5km away and I am using a 50mm Prime Lens with Focus at infinity.

Anything closer than about 20M-30M would be blurry-er so if it was an insect its the size of a bird. Could be a bat, but doesn't really look like one.

Its not dust on the lens as that would be extremely blurry, almost see through, I have many examples of that so that's easy to rule out.

I did not see this object with my naked eye on the night, how ever I was praying to any God that would listen for a super lightning show, they delivered. I wonder if its a Vimāna (God Vehicle) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vimana

your better off looking at original image (click link) as 1024px (allowed here) doesn't show you properly. The interesting bit is just under the '0' of "2014" Zoom in if you can grin

Original (Full Res) Pic is here: http://imageshack.com/a/img850/3820/1idk.jpg










Edited by Jayson Black (08/02/2014 22:29)
_________________________
Formerly Known as "Supercell Kid"
My Wx: http://wxug.us/1r14c

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#1240537 - 09/02/2014 09:40 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Petros Offline
Meteorological Motor Mouth

Registered: 30/12/2002
Posts: 8071
Loc: Maffra, Central Gippsland, Vi...
They would have to be very small?

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#1240566 - 09/02/2014 10:35 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Owl? Out hunting insects at night?

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#1242389 - 15/02/2014 14:56 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
dlcat1 Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 31/01/2011
Posts: 901
Loc: Melbourne (NE burbs)
Heads up for a possible ex tropical low interacting with a southern ocean front for Monday 24th onwards.

AccessG shows a low with significant rainfall in the GOC which starts heading south next weekend and which may begin to impact Victoria from Monday 24th onwards. GFS predicting similar movement but much less rain.

I know this is way out in the future but could be one to watch.

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#1242784 - 17/02/2014 07:41 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Plagueis Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 27/01/2014
Posts: 58
Loc: Melbourne VIC
Guys I think this Wednesday might be a severe weather event, GFS is progging a CAPE of around 560, LFTX up to -3 in Vic and there's a good 90 degrees of some very strong shear. No cap by the looks of the forecast Skew-T so early development possible!

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#1242787 - 17/02/2014 08:09 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Gabby Offline
Weatherzone Addict

Registered: 23/03/2002
Posts: 2868
Loc: Yarrawonga/Mulwala on the Murr...
Next Wednesday looks to be a southerly event in Vic.

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#1242790 - 17/02/2014 08:31 Re: Vic - discussion on possible events to come [Re: Petros]
Thunder Front Offline
Weather Freak

Registered: 08/02/2013
Posts: 89
Loc: Knoxfield, Melbourne, Victoria...
Think we need to start a new thread for this.......

Cheers ['-=

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